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[pubby]

vote: Galzria

I feel better about this than EFHW, for whatever reason.

[MiX]

So is everyone derailing every wagon at the same time? This makes me want to lynch EFHW even more!

Rereading is hard, but I'll be here around deadline, so maybe I can move somewhere useful?

[faust]

Vote: faust

He totally sold an EFHW wagon and it crept up. As it finally got big enough to be the definitive lynch he jumped off saying she must be town. What about the sale, faust? Are you not buying your own product? Not only does he get off his own wagon he goes to joth, who I may have initially been willing to lynch, but the more I think about I'm convinced is town.

Circumstances changed, I had more info, I changed my mind. You should try it some time.

[faust]

So is everyone derailing every wagon at the same time? This makes me want to lynch EFHW even more!

Rereading is hard, but I'll be here around deadline, so maybe I can move somewhere useful?

joth.

[faust]

Or e. Or Eddie. These are lynches I could get behind.

I have misremembered my schedule earlier, I won't make it for the deadline after all. But I will be around up to like 1 hour before deadline.

[MiX]

So is everyone derailing every wagon at the same time? This makes me want to lynch EFHW even more!

Rereading is hard, but I'll be here around deadline, so maybe I can move somewhere useful?

joth.

Reeeeeeally? Fiiiiiiine.

Vote: joth, but it's mostly because everyone's derailing the EFHW wagon.

[Galzria]

Why should anybody change from EFHW at this point? Faust’s “reasons” are that nobody is trying to make cases anywhere else, thus scum must be content with an EFHW lynch. This is categorically untrue - votes & cases have been made against me, Joth, Faust, e, ADK, Swan & more. The fact that none of those cases have gained traction is more a testament to the quality - but not the quantity.

I would argue that there have been attempts by a multitude of people to get a case, any case, to stick anywhere EXCEPT efhw.

The fact that the EFHW wagon is, generally speaking, rather townie is just bonus points. Town reads on Joth/WCD, Town-ish read on PPS, MiX is at the very least “not-Mafia”, Awaclus is Awaclus, and the only somewhat scummy player on wagon is Swan.

[MiX]

Why should anybody change from EFHW at this point? Faust’s “reasons” are that nobody is trying to make cases anywhere else, thus scum must be content with an EFHW lynch. This is categorically untrue - votes & cases have been made against me, Joth, Faust, e, ADK, Swan & more. The fact that none of those cases have gained traction is more a testament to the quality - but not the quantity.

I would argue that there have been attempts by a multitude of people to get a case, any case, to stick anywhere EXCEPT efhw.

The fact that the EFHW wagon is, generally speaking, rather townie is just bonus points. Town reads on Joth/WCD, Town-ish read on PPS, MiX is at the very least “not-Mafia”, Awaclus is Awaclus, and the only somewhat scummy player on wagon is Swan.

How many people are on the EFHW wagon now? I'm not sure if it's possible to get it going again, although I will help if it is.

[shraeye]

I actually like what faust is trying to do with the POE on the MiX wagon, but I think the fact that the wagon never had more than 8 people on it at once is important, so I want to work the whole argument through in my own way.

I do not like this doubling down on wagon analysis when we haven't even seen a flip.  Are you in agreement with faust that MiX is super-highly-likely town?

Not exactly! As I also said in that post I just quoted, the basic argument says that there should be at least one scum in MiX, faust, jotheonah, Galzria, EFHW, gkrieg, and e, and that holds regardless of MIX's alignment.

So you'd rather look for "at least one" in 7 players instead of "at most two" in the remaining 9 (8 from your perspective)??

[shraeye]

Shraeye, dude. "#PleaseBelieveMe"? Whatever. That's who I am and how I talk. If you have an argument beyond you don't like the way I sound in my checking-in-after -VLA post, let me know so I can answer it. Just not liking the way I talk? Come on.

It's not me not liking the way you talk.  It's the substance of the question/point.  It just seems like too much effort for not much substance.

I like how you tie it to "checking in from VLA", though; it's poetic.  Reminds me of that time earlier this game where you tried to cast shade on me for not contributing despite also acknowledging the fact that I was unavailable.

[Uncleeurope]

EFHW would be okay with me, better than Joth, I think.

In a dream world we would take a closer look at ADK (who people refuse to talk about) or WCD (who people are extremely mixed on). And Space, but I always suspect Space for whatever reason.

And Awaclus, because Awaclus. Has he announced having less time? He seems quieter than usual, which is significant.

[jotheonah]

I highly dislike how faust is ordering everyone around. His turn against the EFHW wagon (and the craptastic reasoning behind it) makes it infinitely more attractive to me.

Would also happily start a faust wagon.

I don't get this.. to me, it looks like faust has been saying really sensible things, most of which follow really logically. Do you disagree with the logic faust is presenting, that he follows it all the way through to making recommendations about how town should behave, or just that he does it in kind of a bossy manner sometimes?

1 and 3. 2 is fine I guess.

[Galzria]

Why should anybody change from EFHW at this point? Faust’s “reasons” are that nobody is trying to make cases anywhere else, thus scum must be content with an EFHW lynch. This is categorically untrue - votes & cases have been made against me, Joth, Faust, e, ADK, Swan & more. The fact that none of those cases have gained traction is more a testament to the quality - but not the quantity.

I would argue that there have been attempts by a multitude of people to get a case, any case, to stick anywhere EXCEPT efhw.

The fact that the EFHW wagon is, generally speaking, rather townie is just bonus points. Town reads on Joth/WCD, Town-ish read on PPS, MiX is at the very least “not-Mafia”, Awaclus is Awaclus, and the only somewhat scummy player on wagon is Swan.

How many people are on the EFHW wagon now? I'm not sure if it's possible to get it going again, although I will help if it is.

She’s L-3

[jotheonah]

EFHW herself hasn’t chimed in in a while...

[SpaceAnemone]

Space Count the 4th

2.71828..... (1): Uncleeurope
Galzria (3): EFHW, Glooble, pubby
EFHW (5): Galzria, WestCoastDidds, DatSwan, Awaclus, jotheonah
WestCoastDidds (1): Shraeye
jotheonah (3): A Drowned Kernel, faust, MiX
faust (1): pingpongsam
DatSwan (1): 2.71828.....

Not Voting (1): SpaceAnemone

[shraeye]

There are 5 people I'd be happy to vote, and not a single vote for any of them, so that's donkey-stonkey:
WCD, Space, Glooble, MiX, DatSwan.

Why are we debating between EFHW/joth, and/or EFHW/nolynch??  We could easily put MiX back on the table.  Then there would only be one D1 claim, a claim we had time to process, and a claim multiple people suspect isn't 100% forthcoming.

Vote: Mix

[shraeye]

Right, Space's count immediately counters my point on DatSwan.  But I'm still voting Mix.  It's the right choice.

[Galzria]

Space Count the 4th

2.71828..... (1): Uncleeurope
Galzria (3): EFHW, Glooble, pubby
EFHW (5): Galzria, WestCoastDidds, DatSwan, Awaclus, jotheonah
WestCoastDidds (1): Shraeye
jotheonah (3): A Drowned Kernel, faust, MiX
faust (1): pingpongsam
DatSwan (1): 2.71828.....

Not Voting (1): SpaceAnemone

I missed PPS’s switch to Faust, but I assume he’ll come back to EFHW.

[MiX]

Great wagons all around. Realistical wagons: Galzria/EFHW/joth. Wagons I'm willing to support: EFHW/joth. Vote untill I wake up:

Vote: EFHW

I do understand faust's theory, but what can scum do about EFHW? Maybe they thought it would die down or something, any movement is scummy when she flips scum.

[SpaceAnemone]

I do not like this doubling down on wagon analysis when we haven't even seen a flip.

If the thing being inferred doesn't require us to know the actual alignments of anyone, then I don't see why not having a flip precludes thinking logically about it...

Are you in agreement with faust that MiX is super-highly-likely town?

I'm highly uncertain. He claims he can become an IC, which I think is not likely in the real sense of IC. However, he pretty much has to do something spectacularly pro-town or get lynched off D3, so I'm willing to treat him as town for now, but overall to wait and see.

Not exactly! As I also said in that post I just quoted, the basic argument says that there should be at least one scum in MiX, faust, jotheonah, Galzria, EFHW, gkrieg, and e, and that holds regardless of MIX's alignment.

So you'd rather look for "at least one" in 7 players instead of "at most two" in the remaining 9 (8 from your perspective)??

Yeah, because "at least one" means 1-3 (assuming 3 scums.. there may be more, and probably aren't fewer), whereas "at most two" means 0-2. Even if the 3-0 split (no scum on-wagon at all) is also very unlikely, that still leaves on average about 1.5 scum in each group, so the smaller group has the higher expected hit-rate, and that's before taking into account the fact that the smaller group also has the greater number of players I'm okay treating as town for now. In fact, given faust's more recent point about the EFHW wagon, I'm okay treating MiX, faust and EFHW as likely-town (or at least likely-not-main-scum-faction).

And before you ask, no, I don't think the fact that a few people have belatedly tried to get traction on other wagons means that there wasn't a relevant stretch of the game where nobody appeared to be doing so, so I'm willing to follow faust's suggestion to lynch elsewhere today.

[SpaceAnemone]

I re-read Galz, and I feel like he's both not been supportive of some stuff that seems very sensible to me (e.g. being critical of faust at #264, and also complaining about faust correcting Swan at #367), and also that he's generally more aware of the wagons and voting that maybe faust gave him credit for at the point faust discounted Galz from his lynchpool based on the intent to hammer MiX.. which means I think he really should be someone faust considered at the same time as he started up the EFHW wagon.

Vote: Galz

[SpaceAnemone]

I should be sort of around for deadline, in that it's at 11am my time, so I'll be at my computer, but also at work.

[Galzria]

I do not like this doubling down on wagon analysis when we haven't even seen a flip.

If the thing being inferred doesn't require us to know the actual alignments of anyone, then I don't see why not having a flip precludes thinking logically about it...

Are you in agreement with faust that MiX is super-highly-likely town?

I'm highly uncertain. He claims he can become an IC, which I think is not likely in the real sense of IC. However, he pretty much has to do something spectacularly pro-town or get lynched off D3, so I'm willing to treat him as town for now, but overall to wait and see.

Not exactly! As I also said in that post I just quoted, the basic argument says that there should be at least one scum in MiX, faust, jotheonah, Galzria, EFHW, gkrieg, and e, and that holds regardless of MIX's alignment.

So you'd rather look for "at least one" in 7 players instead of "at most two" in the remaining 9 (8 from your perspective)??

Yeah, because "at least one" means 1-3 (assuming 3 scums.. there may be more, and probably aren't fewer), whereas "at most two" means 0-2. Even if the 3-0 split (no scum on-wagon at all) is also very unlikely, that still leaves on average about 1.5 scum in each group, so the smaller group has the higher expected hit-rate, and that's before taking into account the fact that the smaller group also has the greater number of players I'm okay treating as town for now. In fact, given faust's more recent point about the EFHW wagon, I'm okay treating MiX, faust and EFHW as likely-town (or at least likely-not-main-scum-faction).

And before you ask, no, I don't think the fact that a few people have belatedly tried to get traction on other wagons means that there wasn't a relevant stretch of the game where nobody appeared to be doing so, so I'm willing to follow faust's suggestion to lynch elsewhere today.

At #601 Faust was the first and only vote on EFHW. He had been there with nobody joining, so he offered thank-you PM’s for people to join. At #745 he switched his vote to Joth - Four posts after EFHW hit L-1 and six posts after she hit L-2.

The wagon had not been “sitting as the inevitable” that scum was “completely content with” for any truly significant period of time. In real life time, less than 36 hours.

[shraeye]

Not exactly! As I also said in that post I just quoted, the basic argument says that there should be at least one scum in MiX, faust, jotheonah, Galzria, EFHW, gkrieg, and e, and that holds regardless of MIX's alignment.

So you'd rather look for "at least one" in 7 players instead of "at most two" in the remaining 9 (8 from your perspective)??

Yeah, because "at least one" means 1-3 (assuming 3 scums.. there may be more, and probably aren't fewer), whereas "at most two" means 0-2. Even if the 3-0 split (no scum on-wagon at all) is also very unlikely, that still leaves on average about 1.5 scum in each group, so the smaller group has the higher expected hit-rate, and that's before taking into account the fact that the smaller group also has the greater number of players I'm okay treating as town for now.

This was more a rhetorical question that it looked.  My point was, saying "there has to be at least 1 in this set of 7 players, so therefore I deduce XXX" feels like a deduction based on a clever assumption.  But really that assumption doesn't PoE anything down for us...both alternatives are "some number of scum in a reasonably sized group".

It's utterly meaningless to do things like calculate "averages" unless you're willing to attach specific proabilities to 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3 scenarios.  And all of those probabilities are impossible to settle on because they will be influenced by things like "well person XX feels towny so I'll exclude them" or "person YY is pretty suspicious, so their probability is maybe increased some".

Without probabilities and averages and expected values, saying things like "higher expected hit-rate" is also meaningless.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Or e. Or Eddie. These are lynches I could get behind.

I have misremembered my schedule earlier, I won't make it for the deadline after all. But I will be around up to like 1 hour before deadline.

An Eddie lynch? Where's that coming from?