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[Glooble]

Glooble, is the number of them significant? Do we need them to be living? Or dead (ugh)?

I have no inside information, but my theory is if they somehow all die we will lose.

I don't think the harnessed kids are meant to represent the players.

It was mentioned twice, bolded twice in both opening posts. I do not think it was just flavor. Besides, my QT mentions the existence of harnessed roles. I know that players in this game are playing as harnessed kids.

I’m sure they are mechanically relevant but I don’t think they correspond to specific players.

[jotheonah]

So much to process....

Shraeye, dude. "#PleaseBelieveMe"? Whatever. That's who I am and how I talk. If you have an argument beyond you don't like the way I sound in my checking-in-after -VLA post, let me know so I can answer it. Just not liking the way I talk? Come on.

Beyond that, I am also not convinced that MiX is town. I am not sure where that claim puts him, though, but I definitely don't see "rebellion" as being nearly as towny as he seems to think it is and I have serious doubts about his ability to make himself an IC on D3 because he may well be crowing his 3rd party rebellion victory by that point. MiX is one of those people who uses lots of universal claims and foregone conclusions which tend not to be substantiated. I am skeptical. But he is, indeed, D1 lynchproof again.

I am not fully feeling the EFHW wagon, and I am a little bit wary of how much faust is responsible for creating and maintaining it. But at this point, I don't have any reason not to trust him so vote: EFHW

I am not sure that we wouldn't be better served by a gkrieg or awaclus lynch, though.

Or a pps lynch??

You don't need a reason to distrust faust, btw. go with your gut.

[WestCoastDidds]

Or a pps lynch??

You don't need a reason to distrust faust, btw. go with your gut.

Don't you feel like pps is just caught up in an a tussle with MiX? I agree with his main point (or what I think is his main point) that MiX's claim doesn't make him town. Everything else seems to be stylistic differences.

I am wary of how much faust is directing things right now, and worry that we could all be being played by a MiX/faust mashup.

[SpaceAnemone]

I actually like what faust is trying to do with the POE on the MiX wagon, but I think the fact that the wagon never had more than 8 people on it at once is important, so I want to work the whole argument through in my own way.

While it's quite rare to get all n scum on the same wagon (certainly when n>2), it's not so hard when the wagon is smeared out in time. Incidentally, for wagon-analysis doubters, the fact that scum don't tend to clump all on one wagon tends to hold regardless of whether the wagon itself is on scum or town.

The two L-1 instances were:

#502-#503: MiX (8): WestCoastDidds, pubby, SpaceAnemone, Awaclus, Glooble, DatSwan, pingpongsam, A Drowned Kernel
-- after which Swan unvoted. And
#526-#561: MiX (8): WestCoastDidds, pubby, SpaceAnemone, Awaclus, Glooble, pingpongsam, A Drowned Kernel, Shraeye
-- after which ADK unvoted.

I would be happy to assert that the group of 9 players there probably does not represent our full complement of main-baddie-scum, assuming that faction has at least 3 players.

The remaining six players (skipping MiX) are: faust, jotheonah, Galzria, EFHW, gkrieg, and e.

Now, faust grouped himself and Joth as MiX-voters, and Galz as the intent-to-hammer exception. Personally, I'd be willing to grant Joth membership into our MiX-voting club because he was on an earlier part of the wagon that hit L-2. I guess I'd give faust an out because he wouldn't really be building this kind of a case if it incriminated him.

That leaves at least one scum in Galzria, EFHW, gkrieg, and e, under the assumptions about how many scums, and if we assume that the scumteam haven't deliberately all piled on the same wagon just because they expect there to be lots of wagon analysis that they want to confuse. I'd be okay considering that group the lynchpool for now. I don't think EFHW has really been scummy so far, though! It's also awkward that both she and gkrieg have had VLAs :-(

I need to do more re-reading of the other two... but that will need to wait till tomorrow.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space Count the 3rd

2.71828..... (2): gkrieg13, Awaclus
EFHW (6): MiX, pingpongsam, A Drowned Kernel, Galzria, faust, WestCoastDidds
Galzria (2): EFHW, Glooble
gkrieg13 (1): 2.71828.....
WestCoastDidds (1): Shraeye
pingpongsam (1): jotheonah
MiX (1): pubby

Not Voting (2): DatSwan, SpaceAnemone

[A Drowned Kernel]

I have had a couple of hell days at work and am a little behind in this game, I will try to make a useful contribution this evening

[Swowl]

Summarizing this ish out of this because there has been soooo much in since I checked in:

1) Mix Claim:
- First and foremost this feels like the game to me where mix was SK and we ran them up day 1 and 2 and 3 and I was just hardcore defending them the whole time.
- The above obviously makes no sense if MiX is actually a third party, because of their claim.
- That leaves 2 options... either skum or town.
- I am admittedly in a weird spot with my opinion on the MiX wagon. Galz called me out on the time that I joined it based on the players on the wagon. I do not 100% agree with the their overall decision, but there is credit in the logic upon thinking about it more thoroughly.
- To approach it from my own angle, this was the wagon when I joined
MiX (7): WCD, pubby, Space, joth, Awaclus, Glooble, Datswan
Galzria (2): faust, EFHW
Awaclus (1): MiX
2.7 (4): gkrieg, Galzria, PPS, ADK
Not Voting (2): shraeye, 2.7
-PPS then follows, putting MiX at L-1.
- Players off of MiX, after PPS votes, are [Faust, EFHW, GK, Galz, ADK, Shraeye, E].

- Mix then claims, wagon is dismantled and the EFHW wagon is made. Currently consisting (I think) of [faust, MiX, PPS, ADK, Galzria].
- So, [Faust, Galz, ADK] all did not want to vote MiX at the apex of wagon, but are also all on board with EFHW.

- That last point does not mean that that group is skummy... they could be town, and I actually think that to the most part they are all playing normally. The issue is that the idea of the EFHW wagon is based on the ideal that MiX is town... which I am absolutely not sold on.

- I see the reasoning behind not lynching MiX today... which I do not like 100% agree with, but I also do not think I am gonna rally enough troops for a MiX lynch over EFHW at this point because of those reasons. I would rather lynch E instead of EFHW honestly at this point. I will vote any of the three to get the lynch off (as I was apparently wrong about the plurality) thing), but I prefer E/MiX to EFHW I think.

I am gonna read over things again before I decide for sure, this read back was slightly rushed.

[Swowl]

I have finished reading back - looked more closely specifically at interactions with EFHW - i will expand shortly but i take back my previous conclusion . MiX is still my preference but EFHW is a close second.

I want to follow up on one more angle - a few hours irl time.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Did big ol' reread and have consolidated my reads:

Towny:

glooble- I don't think scum does the skitter claim thing, and I don't think mix's partner does it if they're third party. Also seemed to be generally inquisitive in his posts on a reread

PPS- his posting seems pretty organic when I reread it. I don't think scum would continue to push for a mix lynch after that claim as belligerently as he did

shraeye- has been hanging back a bit even since his vla ended but his big posts are pretty substantial. I also find his unconcern about the no-lynch issue kind of towny- scum!shraeye probably tries to play up his meta

Mild Town:

gkrieg- vla, and the couple of posts he has made don't seem particularly scum motivated. I do agree with faust that if he can't actually participate in the game he should maybe look for a sub

galz- seems to be pursuing his scumreads and cases pretty earnestly, didn't like a lot of early posts but now that the game is swing I'm leaning town here

pubby- the “ally” thing seems unlikely to come from scum. Has some opportunistic seeming voting as the day goes on but it seems in character from when I've played with him

Null:

mix- I'm really not sure how I feel about the claim but he's given us something very verifiable so I'm willing to back off today. Also on a reread he was less overtly scummy than I was remembering

awaclus- is awaclus

space- hard for me to read, very detached style of posting, though there does seem to be honest probing/questioning in a lot of their posts.

Mild Scum:

faust- aggressive pushing on cases that I don't particularly like. I try not to think that someone's scum because I disagree with them but man. I really don't like his breakdown of people after the mix wagon, it seems very artificial. I also get a pretty strong partner vibe between faust and e, they have a number of posts addressing each other without indicating reads on each other and its setting my radar off

EFHW- another difficult person for me to read. Seems to be hanging back a little, maybe a little opportunistic. But I'm once again getting spooked by how many people are okay with her lynch

datswan- his weird setup/numbers stuff just seems like null stuff for swan and not something I'm inclined to read into. Did seem a little antsy when mix was at L-1 and he had intended to hammer, his defensiveness around being scummy after the mix hammer read as very nervous to me

Scummy:

WCD- I think I have some sort of bias here because I feel like I find WCD scummy all the time but man. The suspicion on shraeye when he was VLA was weird, a lot of her posts seem, I don't know, like she's fishing for viable lynch. Kind of artificial

e- As I said above there seems to me like there's a partner-y feel between faust and e. His super defense of mix at L-1 is super strange, I think there's a world where mix is town (or at least not e's partner) and e is trying to set up a “I told you so!” for the next day

joth- on a reread joth is just mega scummy, there's a lot opportunistic wagon jumping, his switch on mix seemed kind of artificial to me. I'm having a hard time pinning down what I find so scummy here but I think that after a reread he's actually my preferred lynch for the day

vote: joth

[gkrieg13]

I have requested a sub

[faust]

To everyone who is like "I'm not comfortable with the EFHW wagon" - what you really need to do is make a case on someone else. It's easy to criticize any case, but it's pretty pointless if you can't make a better one.

[faust]

Faust's reason to consider EFHW, e, gkrieg is taken from a "regardless of Mix's alignment" perspective but the reason for picking EFHW is not.  I'm with Glooble here:

We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?

Based on what I know I would put the chances of MiX being town at 95%

this is a crazy amount of confidence and I would LOVE to know what on earth it's based on

I bet you would.

Oh please. He’s obviously not asking you to reveal it / anything - and his statement is rather justified. I cannot personally believe that there’s anything you could know, based on MiX’s claim and your own flavor, that would lead you to believe MiX is “95% town”. The level of exaggeration there seems ridiculous. But do I think you may have something that leads you to believe MiX, and as I personally think he’s either town or 3rd, it’s not like I’m looking to lynch there.

What leads me to believe that MiX is town is not based on flavor but rather on game mechanics.

[faust]

Also of course the fact that he's townie even without that additional info.

[Swowl]

I have finished reading back - looked more closely specifically at interactions with EFHW - i will expand shortly but i take back my previous conclusion . MiX is still my preference but EFHW is a close second.

I want to follow up on one more angle - a few hours irl time.

So the angle was something to do with cross referencing people on both the MiX wagon and the current EFHW wagon.

Here are the summary of options we have between Mix-EFHW in regards to the wagons:

1) It is very unlikely that the switch from MiX to EFHW dictates that both MiX and EFHW are skum.... but I suppose possible.
2) It could be that both of them are town and there is skum, or unknowing town, orcistrating the switch from one town to another.
3) It could be that Mix is skum and the wagon was shifted to town!EFHW
4) It could be that MiX is town and town also successfully shifted the wagon to skum!EFHW

MiX then either has, or came up with, the role they claimed regarding "being able to IC themself on day 2 or 3". I cannot wrap my head around how easily people swallowed that pill... but I am past fighting it for D1 at this point given the time remaining.

Peak MiX Wagon:
MiX (7): WCD, pubby, Space, joth, Awaclus, Glooble, Datswan

Peak EFHW Wagon:
EFHW (6): MiX, pingpongsam, A Drowned Kernel, Galzria, faust, WestCoastDidds


I have sat here on this page trying to come up with like 100 different angles in where this could make sense based on the players on wagon.... but in the end I have to let bias go I suppose.

Either:
1) MiX is Town and EFHW is Skum and there are like no similarities on the wagons because Skum was on Town!MiX and doesn't want to get on Skum!EFHW
2) MiX is Skum and EFHW is Town and there are like no similarities on the wagons because there wasn't a lot of skum on Skum!MiX but now they have obviously jumped on the EFHW Counter Wagon.
3) They are both Town and Skum is just messing with us.
4) They are both Skum in which case - whatever good for us.

I am PPEd of Faust post saying "you can argue with it all you want but if you can't make another case then what's the point?" - this is a fair point. My only other case is MiX, and that evidently isn't happening, so

Vote: EFHW

[Swowl]

that is L-2 if I am correct

[SpaceAnemone]

@Swan, we have some disagreeing to do :-)

Peak MiX Wagon:
MiX (7): WCD, pubby, Space, joth, Awaclus, Glooble, Datswan

Nope!

The two L-1 instances were:

#502-#503: MiX (: WestCoastDidds, pubby, SpaceAnemone, Awaclus, Glooble, DatSwan, pingpongsam, A Drowned Kernel
-- after which Swan unvoted. And
#526-#561: MiX (: WestCoastDidds, pubby, SpaceAnemone, Awaclus, Glooble, pingpongsam, A Drowned Kernel, Shraeye
-- after which ADK unvoted.

Also:

The issue is that the idea of the EFHW wagon is based on the ideal that MiX is town... which I am absolutely not sold on.

Not exactly! As I also said in that post I just quoted, the basic argument says that there should be at least one scum in MiX, faust, jotheonah, Galzria, EFHW, gkrieg, and e, and that holds regardless of MIX's alignment. The rest of the whittling to get down to the EFHW wagon is based on people's personal reads, though faust does put himself and Galz into a "willing to vote MiX" bin that rescues them from that list.. though I don't think the evidence for doing that is very strong.

[Awaclus]

Vote: EFHW

That's L-1 if DatSwan is correct.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.12:

MiX (1): pubby
Uncleeurope (1): 2.7
EFHW (7): MiX, PPS, Galzria, faust, WCD, Datswan, Awaclus
Galzria (2) EFHW, Glooble
PPS (1): joth
WCD (1): shraeye
joth (1): ADK

Not Voting (2): Space, Uncleeurope

With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.  Day 1 ends at 6:00 a.m. on July 31.

[ashersky]

Uncleeurope has replaced gkrieg13.

[SpaceAnemone]

Uncleeurope has replaced gkrieg13.

Welcome Uncleeurope :-) Thanks for subbing into such a complex game! Have you been reading along so far?

[SpaceAnemone]

Vote: EFHW

That's L-1 if DatSwan is correct.

Turns out Swan was not correct after all :-P It's probably just because he missed that ADK had moved their vote from EFHW over to Joth since the previous count.

I'm still not jumping on the wagon till I've had time to ponder the other players in that lynchpool. I won't be home till ~9pm my time tonight, though, so no serious reading till then...

[faust]

Vote: joth

[jotheonah]

Can we not today? We have less than 24 hours. I promise y’all can come after me tomorrow. Deal?

vote: EFHW I guess

[jotheonah]

That’s L-2.

[Glooble]

That’s L-2.

No, that’s L-1.