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Author Topic: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Game Over)  (Read 250432 times)

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pubby

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #700 on: July 29, 2019, 01:06:35 pm »

What? No. I can't right now because I need to keep the EFHW wagon going.
I know this is silly, but can you change your vote to joth, then change it right back to EFHW next post?

I really want to make sure there's no post restriction.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #701 on: July 29, 2019, 01:15:37 pm »

vote: Galzria

I don't think I like this EFHW wagon very much. I mostly joined it because I strongly townread faust right now and I trust his analysis. But I don't actually understand his reasoning. E has consistently defended MiX. So what? We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?

Okay, so why then, are you voting Galz? Because EFHW is?


Because I think his reactions to the MiX wagon were scummy, and because I think his faust case was forced.


Specifically, his explanations for his intent to hammer seem more likely to come from scum then from town. Town!Galz who genuinely thinks MiX is scum doesn't have to say he did it to get reactions. He can just own the fact that he intended to hammer MiX because he thinks MiX is scum and wants to lynch him. The reactions thing sounds like its there to cover his ass when MiX flips town.



At the time of my intent to hammer, I would’ve been fine with MiX claiming, as I stated then. Stuff happened, votes changed, and the time when I suggested MiX NOT claim was no longer the same situation.


What stuff happened exactly? What was different about the situation?
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #702 on: July 29, 2019, 01:16:59 pm »

What? No. I can't right now because I need to keep the EFHW wagon going.
I know this is silly, but can you change your vote to joth, then change it right back to EFHW next post?

I really want to make sure there's no post restriction.
I think posting restrictions would be pretty bastardly anyways, but if it makes you happy...

Vote: joth
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #703 on: July 29, 2019, 01:19:10 pm »

vote: Galzria

I don't think I like this EFHW wagon very much. I mostly joined it because I strongly townread faust right now and I trust his analysis. But I don't actually understand his reasoning. E has consistently defended MiX. So what? We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?
Maybe I didn't get my point across very well? There are only 3 people who didn't at some point scumread MiX (or 4 if you want to count me I guess). I don't think all scum join a wagon on anyone really, and much less on someone who frequently attracts suspicion (and that is regardless of alignment). So there is scum in those 3, and EFHW is the scummiest among them.
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #704 on: July 29, 2019, 01:19:22 pm »

Oops. Vote: EFHW
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Glooble

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #705 on: July 29, 2019, 01:20:09 pm »

EFHW is the scummiest among them.


Why?
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #706 on: July 29, 2019, 01:20:34 pm »

sorry all, trying to catch up from being gone and kind of failing atm. Will not be able to get to this. Still like my e vote, but will switch to get a lynch.
If you don't expect to have more time I am asking you to drop out.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #707 on: July 29, 2019, 01:24:21 pm »

EFHW is the scummiest among them.


Why?
I feel like she tried to avoid talking about MiX a lot, like she wanted to be distanced from the wagon but she didn't try to make anything else happen nor did she criticize it. I feel kinda townie on e, and I still have no data on gkrieg, so that seems like a good bet.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #708 on: July 29, 2019, 01:35:21 pm »

EFHW is the scummiest among them.


Why?
I feel like she tried to avoid talking about MiX a lot, like she wanted to be distanced from the wagon but she didn't try to make anything else happen nor did she criticize it. I feel kinda townie on e, and I still have no data on gkrieg, so that seems like a good bet.


Reasonable I guess. So its more about what she hasn't said than what she has.


I gotta go back to work. I'll mull it over.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #709 on: July 29, 2019, 01:46:51 pm »

vote: Galzria

I don't think I like this EFHW wagon very much. I mostly joined it because I strongly townread faust right now and I trust his analysis. But I don't actually understand his reasoning. E has consistently defended MiX. So what? We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?

Okay, so why then, are you voting Galz? Because EFHW is?


Because I think his reactions to the MiX wagon were scummy, and because I think his faust case was forced.


Specifically, his explanations for his intent to hammer seem more likely to come from scum then from town. Town!Galz who genuinely thinks MiX is scum doesn't have to say he did it to get reactions. He can just own the fact that he intended to hammer MiX because he thinks MiX is scum and wants to lynch him. The reactions thing sounds like its there to cover his ass when MiX flips town.



At the time of my intent to hammer, I would’ve been fine with MiX claiming, as I stated then. Stuff happened, votes changed, and the time when I suggested MiX NOT claim was no longer the same situation.


What stuff happened exactly? What was different about the situation?

From the original 8 (including myself with intent) of 15 possible votes, when I found MiX to be his scummiest, he went back to a true 8 with the addition of ADK & Shraeye - with a quick swap and essential intent to hammer from Swan. That’s 11-of-15 willing to lynch him, and I don’t believe scum-partners need to bus him so hard that he’s almost hammered (and potentially forced to claim) twice.

At the time of my stated “Don’t claim”, it was prior to Shraeye’s vote. Not voting were Faust (leaning back to town), Joth (read as Town), Shraeye (leaning town), EFHW (leaning scum), e (leaning scum), and myself (town). Of those, I knew I wasn’t going to hammer, and based on their play today neither were EFHW, Faust or e. That left MiX’s only real threat to be hammered coming from Joth & Shraeye. I didn’t think either of them would hammer without debate first, so I didn’t feel MiX was really in danger at that exact moment.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

shraeye

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #710 on: July 29, 2019, 02:07:56 pm »

Mix:
1. I don't believe the entirety of his claim; I fall mostly in pps's camp here.  I fully believe that he is a skitter, but he's yelling town-aligned too much for me to get behind that.

2. This is a reasonable idea:
I don't want to lynch mix (or glooble) today given that we can lynch mix day three if he doesn't deliver on his promise
except that I can right now think of at least 3 RMM-y ways where MiX is a baddy and this plan backfires.

3. Another idea in the soup:
Now, if it's a fakeclaim, why would my/Glooble's flavor have ANYTHING to do with skitters? If they're fakeclaims, they should at least be a plausible town name, right?
I can think of at least 2 RMM-y reasons that a fakeclaim should be skitter-related.

4. Unfortunately, too many people simply auto-backoff whenever any claim is made, so no way is a MiX lynch happening.  You know this is what puts us in the following terrible meta, right?
I'm just not a fan of the day 1s where we push like 4 people to L1 and they all claim and then scum knows way too much and we end up lynching town anyway. to me, that's worse than a sensible no lynch.

joth:
1. When did joth turn into shraeye? 
2. "We need to find a lynch" is a terrible mindset. 
3. So is
Still like my e vote, but will switch to get a lynch.

EFHW:
1. No thanks to that wagon
2. I don't like the appeal to emotion
3.
Quote
Why EFHW, again?
I think that, regardless of MiX's alignment (but I'm pretty sure he's town), not all scum were voting for him. So I singled out people who weren't voting for him (EFHW, e, gkrieg, and maybe you want to include me if you disregard my early-game vote). I think there's scum here, I think e has been kind of townie and anyway the other two in the group are on the e wagon. I'm voting for EFHW because I think she has done distancing to the MiX wagon to appear townie rather than because she wanted to prevent his lynch.
Faust's reason to consider EFHW, e, gkrieg is taken from a "regardless of Mix's alignment" perspective but the reason for picking EFHW is not.  I'm with Glooble here:
We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?

WCD:
1. wins the award for most "#TownyContribution #ScumHunt #DefinitelyTown #PleaseBelieveMe" post
Wow, you all have been busy! I picked a bad weekend to go out of town...

I’ll read the 6+ pages of content tomorrow and get caught up in the morning.

One question in the meantime:

I don't want to give anything else away - I think I've given away too much already. PPS, please trust me. MiX's claim makes sense as town.

I think pubby's attempt to get my flavor name was very scummy.

vote: pubby

It's scummy, but scum pubby doesn't do it.

How do you know, MiX? Has pubby been scum before?
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shraeye

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #711 on: July 29, 2019, 02:08:06 pm »

vote: WCD
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pubby

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #712 on: July 29, 2019, 02:24:52 pm »

Hunch: MiX and WCD as 3rd party Dornia faction. MiX has Paint Face as fake role.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #713 on: July 29, 2019, 02:44:04 pm »

Can I interest anyone else in the pingpongsam wagon? I think his pushing the MiX lynch in spite of the claim -- and his disingenuous characterization of the rest of the town as ICing MiX rather than merely delaying his lynch  -- add up to scum trying to push us into lynching either a PR or, more likely, a troublesome 3rd party.

vote: pingpongsam
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #714 on: July 29, 2019, 03:21:23 pm »

Can I interest anyone else in the pingpongsam wagon? I think his pushing the MiX lynch in spite of the claim -- and his disingenuous characterization of the rest of the town as ICing MiX rather than merely delaying his lynch  -- add up to scum trying to push us into lynching either a PR or, more likely, a troublesome 3rd party.

vote: pingpongsam
No, MiX is spot on with his PPS read.
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #715 on: July 29, 2019, 03:22:46 pm »

Faust's reason to consider EFHW, e, gkrieg is taken from a "regardless of Mix's alignment" perspective but the reason for picking EFHW is not.  I'm with Glooble here:
We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?
Based on what I know I would put the chances of MiX being town at 95%
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #716 on: July 29, 2019, 03:46:23 pm »

Faust's reason to consider EFHW, e, gkrieg is taken from a "regardless of Mix's alignment" perspective but the reason for picking EFHW is not.  I'm with Glooble here:
We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?
Based on what I know I would put the chances of MiX being town at 95%

this is a crazy amount of confidence and I would LOVE to know what on earth it's based on
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faust

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #717 on: July 29, 2019, 04:03:39 pm »

Faust's reason to consider EFHW, e, gkrieg is taken from a "regardless of Mix's alignment" perspective but the reason for picking EFHW is not.  I'm with Glooble here:
We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?
Based on what I know I would put the chances of MiX being town at 95%

this is a crazy amount of confidence and I would LOVE to know what on earth it's based on
I bet you would.
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Galzria

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #718 on: July 29, 2019, 04:34:07 pm »

Faust's reason to consider EFHW, e, gkrieg is taken from a "regardless of Mix's alignment" perspective but the reason for picking EFHW is not.  I'm with Glooble here:
We don't know MiX's alignment, so why does that tell us anything about EFHWs?
Based on what I know I would put the chances of MiX being town at 95%

this is a crazy amount of confidence and I would LOVE to know what on earth it's based on
I bet you would.

Oh please. He’s obviously not asking you to reveal it / anything - and his statement is rather justified. I cannot personally believe that there’s anything you could know, based on MiX’s claim and your own flavor, that would lead you to believe MiX is “95% town”. The level of exaggeration there seems ridiculous. But do I think you may have something that leads you to believe MiX, and as I personally think he’s either town or 3rd, it’s not like I’m looking to lynch there.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

pubby

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #719 on: July 29, 2019, 04:55:45 pm »

Just a thought, probably important: The OP mentioned 11 harnessed kids in a game of 16. Two have claimed rebel skitter, which wouldn't be harnessed according to wiki flavor. That leaves 3 non-harnessed roles left, presumably all Espheni scum?

vote: MiX

Considering what I know from my QT, the math doesn't add up.

(I guess the 11 kids could reference something else, or include fake roles??? But I feel really good about voting MiX here)
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #720 on: July 29, 2019, 04:58:31 pm »

Just a thought, probably important: The OP mentioned 11 harnessed kids in a game of 16. Two have claimed rebel skitter, which wouldn't be harnessed according to wiki flavor. That leaves 3 non-harnessed roles left, presumably all Espheni scum?

vote: MiX

Considering what I know from my QT, the math doesn't add up.

(I guess the 11 kids could reference something else, or include fake roles??? But I feel really good about voting MiX here)

I don't think the harnessed kids are meant to represent the players.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #721 on: July 29, 2019, 05:03:24 pm »

Just a thought, probably important: The OP mentioned 11 harnessed kids in a game of 16. Two have claimed rebel skitter, which wouldn't be harnessed according to wiki flavor. That leaves 3 non-harnessed roles left, presumably all Espheni scum?

vote: MiX

Considering what I know from my QT, the math doesn't add up.

(I guess the 11 kids could reference something else, or include fake roles??? But I feel really good about voting MiX here)

Yo, one died at the start, what do you think that represents? Anyway this is precisely what I would expect from town!pubby here, and I will use it as indisputable proof that he's not scum.
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #722 on: July 29, 2019, 05:06:50 pm »

So much to process....

Shraeye, dude. "#PleaseBelieveMe"? Whatever. That's who I am and how I talk. If you have an argument beyond you don't like the way I sound in my checking-in-after -VLA post, let me know so I can answer it. Just not liking the way I talk? Come on.

Beyond that, I am also not convinced that MiX is town. I am not sure where that claim puts him, though, but I definitely don't see "rebellion" as being nearly as towny as he seems to think it is and I have serious doubts about his ability to make himself an IC on D3 because he may well be crowing his 3rd party rebellion victory by that point. MiX is one of those people who uses lots of universal claims and foregone conclusions which tend not to be substantiated. I am skeptical. But he is, indeed, D1 lynchproof again.

I am not fully feeling the EFHW wagon, and I am a little bit wary of how much faust is responsible for creating and maintaining it. But at this point, I don't have any reason not to trust him so vote: EFHW

I am not sure that we wouldn't be better served by a gkrieg or awaclus lynch, though.



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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #723 on: July 29, 2019, 05:10:19 pm »

Just a thought, probably important: The OP mentioned 11 harnessed kids in a game of 16. Two have claimed rebel skitter, which wouldn't be harnessed according to wiki flavor. That leaves 3 non-harnessed roles left, presumably all Espheni scum?

vote: MiX

Considering what I know from my QT, the math doesn't add up.

(I guess the 11 kids could reference something else, or include fake roles??? But I feel really good about voting MiX here)

I don't think the harnessed kids are meant to represent the players.

Glooble, is the number of them significant? Do we need them to be living? Or dead (ugh)?
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Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #724 on: July 29, 2019, 05:12:49 pm »

I don't think the harnessed kids are meant to represent the players.
It was mentioned twice, bolded twice in both opening posts. I do not think it was just flavor. Besides, my QT mentions the existence of harnessed roles. I know that players in this game are playing as harnessed kids.
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