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[2.71828.....]

e could be white knighting. I don't want to go without placing a helpful vote, so

vote: e

But I'll have a chance to change it tomorrow if Galz wagon gets more support.

That's not helpful though.

[2.71828.....]

Also, I am seeing scum everywhere this game. Which probably means look where I am not. I have a wonderful record of pushing town lynches (as town or scum).

That being said, I am waiting for the game when I finally 1) read scum correctly and 2) convince town to lynch them.

It's my favorite dream. Also, had a bit to drink, any questions?

[A Drowned Kernel]

This is, by my count, the third time that the mix wagon has built up steam, only to stall out near completion.

vote: mix that is L-1 for real

[Swowl]

unvote


I am still fine with my MiX vote. But out of respect of MiX's request to avoid a quickhammer as they have info they would like to share, I am un voting to make sure that happens.


MiX - what is it you wanted to get out?

[Galzria]

vote: swan

I don’t believe Town!swan honestly comes in from being away, reads/gets caught up, evaluates the wagons, the players & the votes, and concludes he wants to lynch MiX.

Reasons: Swan should’ve noted that my intent to hammer, while at L-2, marked the 8th person willing to lynch MiX. Then Joth, ADK & I* leave the wagon, where we remain when Swan puts MiX back to L-2. With us three included back, that’s now 10 showing willingness to lynch MiX. The players that do not fall into that group:

Faust, EFHW, e - all three of whom have defended MiX to some degree.
Shraeye - who’s stated suspicion of MiX
Gkrieg - V/LA
MiX - obviously

Now, that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room to nail the scum team, but Swan seems entirely unfazed. I’m just not buying it.

What I DO see as more likely is one of the following:

Scum!Swan is partners with Scum!MiX. He’s waited for a cycling of MiX’s wagon and decided to put the pressure back on in the hopes that somebody draws the exact analysis I did above, and uses that to derail the MiX wagon entirely.

Or

Scum!Swan is partners with Scum!e, recognizes that we’re plurality lynch, and wants to keep the MiX wagon high in the hopes of either getting MiX lynched flat out, or eventually by plurality.

——-

Both of the above make more sense to me than town!swan coming in when & where he did to vote MiX.

[Galzria]

MiX, if you’re town, don’t claim anything right now. You’re not in danger of being lynched.

[Swowl]

vote: swan

I don’t believe Town!swan honestly comes in from being away, reads/gets caught up, evaluates the wagons, the players & the votes, and concludes he wants to lynch MiX.

Reasons: Swan should’ve noted that my intent to hammer, while at L-2, marked the 8th person willing to lynch MiX. Then Joth, ADK & I* leave the wagon, where we remain when Swan puts MiX back to L-2. With us three included back, that’s now 10 showing willingness to lynch MiX. The players that do not fall into that group:

Faust, EFHW, e - all three of whom have defended MiX to some degree.
Shraeye - who’s stated suspicion of MiX
Gkrieg - V/LA
MiX - obviously

Now, that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room to nail the scum team, but Swan seems entirely unfazed. I’m just not buying it.

What I DO see as more likely is one of the following:

Scum!Swan is partners with Scum!MiX. He’s waited for a cycling of MiX’s wagon and decided to put the pressure back on in the hopes that somebody draws the exact analysis I did above, and uses that to derail the MiX wagon entirely.

Or

Scum!Swan is partners with Scum!e, recognizes that we’re plurality lynch, and wants to keep the MiX wagon high in the hopes of either getting MiX lynched flat out, or eventually by plurality.

——-

Both of the above make more sense to me than town!swan coming in when & where he did to vote MiX.

I just want to make sure I can follow your uhm... brilliance here - So I am either skum with E or skum with MiX, and those are those are the only two options?

1) "Scum!Swan is partners with Scum!MiX. He’s waited for a cycling of MiX’s wagon and decided to put the pressure back on in the hopes that somebody draws the exact analysis I did above, and uses that to derail the MiX wagon entirely" - I said I would vote for mix again, just wanted to give them a chance to speak. tbf, "captain hammer-time" - you actually had a lot to do with that choice. Also, you made the "analysis" and then did not derail the wagon, as you were not on it. If anything your post does more to derail the wagon than anything I have done.

2) "Scum!Swan is partners with Scum!e, recognizes that we’re plurality lynch, and wants to keep the MiX wagon high in the hopes of either getting MiX lynched flat out, or eventually by plurality." - If I was skum and wanted them to be lynched by plurality, I sure as hell wouldn't point it out prior to making that play. Also, you moving your vote off of E to me just took my unvote of MiX and evened the plurality of the wagons back to where they started. So if that is something you are concerned about, that seems like a strange way of approaching things.


You took two different realities and combined them to create a case where they overlap with one and other. You should check your bias - would you be making the same case if I picked the wagon you found skummy instead of the other one?

[pingpongsam]

Damn, Galz, that’s a pretty hard counter to your points. Essentially, you are clearly doing the things you accuse Swan of. Not that I didn’t actually agree with your points to begin with but Swan puts a whole different spin on it.

[Galzria]

Damn, Galz, that’s a pretty hard counter to your points. Essentially, you are clearly doing the things you accuse Swan of. Not that I didn’t actually agree with your points to begin with but Swan puts a whole different spin on it.

I disagree - I looked at two essential situations: One where Swan is town, and one where he’s scum. The reality there is that’s the unknown. The known is how Swan read the game, players & votes, along with the conclusions he made (voting MiX).

Given the knowns, I could not come up with a reasonable narrative for town!sean, but could come up with two narratives for scum!swan - one each where he’s partners with MiX or partners with e. At that point he becomes the lowest common denominator - that is, MiX could be scum. Or e could be scum. But I find it more likely that Swan is scum.

[EFHW]

Galz I'm not following your argument.  What did you think town!swan would have done?

[EFHW]

It also seems pretty early for partner theories. Why do one of MiX or e have to be scum?

[Galzria]

Galz I'm not following your argument.  What did you think town!swan would have done?

Considered the fact that following my intent to hammer, along with Joth’s and ADK’s votes, neither of which were on MiX anymore, that the chances of a scum!MiX were incredibly slim given Swan’s own vote was effectively #10 of 15 - given MiX wouldn’t vote himself. And Shraeye is one of those five not voting MiX, despite showing interest.

[EFHW]

Galz I'm not following your argument.  What did you think town!swan would have done?

Considered the fact that following my intent to hammer, along with Joth’s and ADK’s votes, neither of which were on MiX anymore, that the chances of a scum!MiX were incredibly slim given Swan’s own vote was effectively #10 of 15 - given MiX wouldn’t vote himself. And Shraeye is one of those five not voting MiX, despite showing interest.

Because town!swan would assume there wasn't bussing happening?

[Galzria]

It also seems pretty early for partner theories. Why do one of MiX or e have to be scum?

Neither have to be. But both (either) could be given Swan’s play. If it made more sense to pursue e/MiX instead, that’s where I would be. But Swan is the LCD here.

[shraeye]

Galz I'm not following your argument.  What did you think town!swan would have done?

Considered the fact that following my intent to hammer, along with Joth’s and ADK’s votes, neither of which were on MiX anymore, that the chances of a scum!MiX were incredibly slim given Swan’s own vote was effectively #10 of 15 - given MiX wouldn’t vote himself. And Shraeye is one of those five not voting MiX, despite showing interest.

I thought I was following until that explanation.  That sentence has too many mismatched clauses

[Galzria]

Galz I'm not following your argument.  What did you think town!swan would have done?

Considered the fact that following my intent to hammer, along with Joth’s and ADK’s votes, neither of which were on MiX anymore, that the chances of a scum!MiX were incredibly slim given Swan’s own vote was effectively #10 of 15 - given MiX wouldn’t vote himself. And Shraeye is one of those five not voting MiX, despite showing interest.

Because town!swan would assume there wasn't bussing happening?

Not to the extent that MiX almost gets hammered, no.

Please. If you’re town looking at that wagon at the point of intent to hammer - and you’re NOT on it (see: yourself? Faust? e?), you look at that and go “Yeah, he’s probably scum”.

[shraeye]

It sounds to me like, "lots of people were voting for mix, or wanted too.  Therefore he is probably not scum.  This, DatSwan is".

The first conclusion is debatable, the second seems a bit off topic.

[Galzria]

Galz I'm not following your argument.  What did you think town!swan would have done?

Considered the fact that following my intent to hammer, along with Joth’s and ADK’s votes, neither of which were on MiX anymore, that the chances of a scum!MiX were incredibly slim given Swan’s own vote was effectively #10 of 15 - given MiX wouldn’t vote himself. And Shraeye is one of those five not voting MiX, despite showing interest.

I thought I was following until that explanation.  That sentence has too many mismatched clauses

Sorry, does adding “I believe Town!Swan would’ve” to the start fix that for you? I was answering directly the question “what do you think Town!swan would’ve down?”

[shraeye]

Galz I'm not following your argument.  What did you think town!swan would have done?

Considered the fact that following my intent to hammer, along with Joth’s and ADK’s votes, neither of which were on MiX anymore, that the chances of a scum!MiX were incredibly slim given Swan’s own vote was effectively #10 of 15 - given MiX wouldn’t vote himself. And Shraeye is one of those five not voting MiX, despite showing interest.

I thought I was following until that explanation.  That sentence has too many mismatched clauses

Sorry, does adding “I believe Town!Swan would’ve” to the start fix that for you? I was answering directly the question “what do you think Town!swan would’ve down?”

But none of those clauses were action clauses.  So what would town!swan have done?

[Galzria]

It sounds to me like, "lots of people were voting for mix, or wanted too.  Therefore he is probably not scum.  This, DatSwan is".

The first conclusion is debatable, the second seems a bit off topic.

I don’t believe that Town!swan draws the conclusion that “Yeah, looking at those votes and wagon from before, MiX is probably scum here”, given he was himself off that initial wagon.

[shraeye]

Wait, maybe I just figured out the run-on sentence.

[Galzria]

Galz I'm not following your argument.  What did you think town!swan would have done?

Considered the fact that following my intent to hammer, along with Joth’s and ADK’s votes, neither of which were on MiX anymore, that the chances of a scum!MiX were incredibly slim given Swan’s own vote was effectively #10 of 15 - given MiX wouldn’t vote himself. And Shraeye is one of those five not voting MiX, despite showing interest.

I thought I was following until that explanation.  That sentence has too many mismatched clauses

Sorry, does adding “I believe Town!Swan would’ve” to the start fix that for you? I was answering directly the question “what do you think Town!swan would’ve down?”

But none of those clauses were action clauses.  So what would town!swan have done?

“I believe Town!swan would’ve considered the fact that, following my intent to hammer along with Joth’s and ADK’s votes (neither of which were on MiX anymore) that the chances of a scum!MiX was incredibly slim given Swan’s own vote was effectively #10 of 15 (given MiX wouldn’t vote himself). And Shraeye is one of those five not voting MiX, despite showing interest.”

Does that help parse the point?

[shraeye]

Ok, I see what you're saying now.  I don't agree though. So I feel dumb for wasting time with clarification.

[Galzria]

Wait, maybe I just figured out the run-on sentence.

More simply: I don’t believe Town!swan finds MiX to be the best place to put his vote given the information available to him at that time.

Lol

[EFHW]

It seems like ADK has the opposite theory, that not enough people are willing to vote MiX rather than too many.