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[iguanaiguana]

Iguana, why did you claim that you didn't use your Commute shot?

We have really good PoE. If we can lynch two more times and I can shoot two more times, we basically just win. Unless something is screwy.

[Witherweaver]

Still, better to keep scum unsure if you've used it or not.

[Witherweaver]

I think Iguana is very likely town. This means there is something funky with Haddocks Night 3 results, or with my conclusion.

Possibilities:

My innocent result on Jake is wrong
My innocent result on Haddock is wrong
e got his alignment changed
Haddocks results are incorrect or somehow otherwise manipulated

[iguanaiguana]

Still, better to keep scum unsure if you've used it or not.

Huh, you're right. I thought about just saying that I killed Gkrieg, but that seemed unnecessary,  so I just said everything.

[iguanaiguana]

I think Iguana is very likely town. This means there is something funky with Haddocks Night 3 results, or with my conclusion.

Possibilities:

My innocent result on Jake is wrong

I would edit this possibility to "One of WW or Jake is not town." Possible. Especially he could be some kind of third party, which makes sense with his "I won't claim unless only 1 scum is left" thing. To me, the way that people pushed the Jake lynch and almost lynched him until you and I pivoted to Gkrieg seemed really towny of Jake. So I don't think mafia. But a lot of others disagree on that.

My innocent result on Haddock is wrong

I highly doubt it. That's hella motivation to spend virtually the whole game puzzling over completely made up results. Plus mafia tried to kill him last night, so he would have to be third party if anything too. I think he's town.

e got his alignment changed

Not super likely. The thing here is to hunt for a flip that shows that alignment change from town to another faction is possible. If it is, I think we should lynch e. But only after we see proof of it.

Haddocks results are incorrect or somehow otherwise manipulated

Considering that PPS was a built-in-to-the-setup way to mess with Haddock's results that we just got lucky to not have to deal with, I think it's somewhat likely that there is another role or ability that makes Haddock's results get funky. So yeah. This is probably my top choice.

This hasn't been mentioned, but it's also very possible that one of the non-yellow scums is silverspawn. In which case we'll get that flip at day end.

[SpaceAnemone]

I crunched some numbers on my trip back to the UK last night. I found exactly zero person-colour assignment sets that are consistent with N1, N2 and N3 results simultaneously, though.

My only constraint to calculate that was that I assumed everyone who's flipped town should be coloured red, since it was useful to be able to cut down the possibility space a bit.

[SpaceAnemone]

That means that either I have a bug in my encoding of the problem, or something has messed with Haddock's results to change a person-colour between days. If the latter is true, then we can't trust the "exactly n scum in this set" arguments until we know what's up with it.

In case it's the former, though, below is my encoding of the problem. Please tell me if you see a bug compared to what Haddock has reported!

Code: [Select]

names = {'EFHW','Ash','Haddock','Awaclus','gkrieg','Space','schadd','chairs','e','DatSwan','Jake','Galz','Dylan','Iguana','WW','silver'};
collist = {'Red','White','Yellow','Blue'};
N1pattern = [1,3,1,3,1,2,1,3,1,4,1,4,1,1,1,1];
N2pattern = [3,1,1,1,1,0,0,1,1,3,1,1,4,1,3,1]; % For N2, we lose schadd and me.
N3pattern = [1,0,1,1,1,0,0,1,1,1,4,3,1,4,4,1]; % Ash is dead too.
N1rcrp = 7;
N1rcwp = 7;
N2rcrp = 7;
N2rcwp = 5;
N3rcrp = 7;
N3rcwp = 3;


[SpaceAnemone]

I've played around some more, with things like the idea that someone was recruited to another faction (or just masked as another faction) on N3. It might be slightly messier to do the same thing for N2.

Chairs looks to be in a non-red faction for the majority of those possibilities, so I'd be happy enough with a vote there if I go on this mastermind puzzle alone. Let's do some re-reads first, though... there's still a small risk that Haddock is just entertaining us all with an impossible puzzle, after all :-P

[Witherweaver]

That would be very creative on his end.

Easily things like X-shot Godfather, switches (targeted or everyone), make-target-investigate-as-Y (Framer? is that a thing?), could lead to inconsistent results. Recruitment is not impossible as well.

[Witherweaver]

Actually Space is the most trustworthy person here, since we've actually seen their flip and I don't believe zombies are recruitable. (Not that I think recruiting is in huge likelihood.)

[EFHW]

When you say recruiting are you thinking cult?

[EFHW]

RMM32 had a cultist alignment, including vote count weirdness. Did we ever finish WW's experiment?

[EFHW]

vote count please

[Haddock]

Guh.

Ok, several things.

1) Iguana, you're being absurd. It's possible that I've miscalculated. I am happy to double check my calculations. However: If I am right and my results implicate WW as not-town then we should absolutely lynch him.
There may be a godfather as well. There probably is because otherwise scum is too weak. But it's dumb to try and hunt for them while there's a confscum in our midst.
I'm not up on my high horse. Its just I've spent a lot of time calculating with my results and I truly believe I've caught scum.

2) Space, I can't check your code right now. But please can you check my 5 outcomes in post #1618? Options 2, 3 and 5 in particular: at my desk on Friday I definitely came up with a way to make those consistent. I will write out a possible set of alignments which is consistent with all my results in my next post.

3) godfather could never implicate WW. It could only make a red person scum. So if my calculations are right then WW is scum or framed. But why assume he's framed? If he is that means there's even fewer scum in the game than we thought. I cant believe anyone is advocating for ignoring my results on the basis of hypothetical framers.

4) if you believe my post 1618, chairs is town (or godfather-but see point 1), because nothing else can account for last night's results.
 People should actually LOOK at my analysis rather than trying to do their own every time, because you just end up repeating work I've already done.

[Haddock]

E red
Haddock red
Ash red
Space red
Galz red
Swan red
Gkrieg yellow
Schadd yellow
Awaclus yellow

Chairs red
Dylan red
Silver red
Efhw red
WW white
Iguana red
Jake white

Would be consistent with all my results.  So, sorry, Space, your code is wrong.
It is, however one of VERY few possibilities.

If I were a cop claiming this result WW would be lynched by now. And my role is harder to screw with than that of a cop.
I get that people don't trust my calculations. But I've done my best to show as much of my working as was reasonable.

[Haddock]

Firstly: please everyone stop thinking godfather can mess with my results.   It cannot.
It can make scum look red, but not the converse. If my results implicate someone as scum, godfather cannot somehow make that person not-scum.

Secondly: WW makes a good point but it is incomplete.

In fact, thanks to a version of his n3 analysis about number of corrects, we now know the following:

Precisely 2 of WW, Jake and iguana are White, whatever that means.
Everyone else is either town or a godfather.

I lean towards WW and Jake being the scums: emphasised by WW's saving of Jake yesterday. My theory is that it was WW's vote that didn't count, and he knew this and was trying to force a no lynch. Have a look at his behaviour. It fits.

That said, White is be third party, so if whichever 2 of those 3 folks wants to come out and claim that they are not a threat to town, maybe we'll lynch someone else today, though I doubt it.

Wait, what?  How is two white possible?

I did not save Jake.. I tried to lynch Jake. Please go reread yesterday.

What do you mean, "how is 2 white possible?"
Have you read anything I've said?
2 white is not just possible, it's guaranteed.

Oh wait, right you're just trying to discredit me.

If we believe that (3 scum, 2 something else, PPS) was the starting setup, then chairs is guaranteed town.

Also if we believe this then exactly one of WW/EFHW/Dylan is White.

Oh here we go. Cool.

I nearly forgot about this.
We are now guaranteed to be in this situation, and Efhw is Red.
Therefore WW is not town.

100% guaranteed. Everyone vote ww please.

But mafia is yellow, and white is survivor or SK?

If it's 3/2/PPS, then that would mean no more mafia. We already killed 3 mafia and PPS. The game isn't over (survivor wincon would have been met).

So that would mean this game is 3 mafia, 3 serial killers?

The problem with that is that Faust didn't put us in the crappiest setup ever made.

So you must be wrong. Sorry.

It wouldn't mean that at all. It would mean PPS was taking up only one colour. Which was always a possibility.
And that we have some kind of third party white team. Wolves of some kind.
And 3 scum (plus, yes, maybe a godfather: WHO WE SHOULD NOT BE LOOKING FOR WHEN WE HAVE CONFSCUM ON OUR DOOR)

[Haddock]

If anyone wants to show me a possible person-colour pairing which is consistent with my results and doesn't have WW as white (and is not totally insane like options 1 and 4 in post #1618), I will listen to them. Otherwise, please PLEASE  just vote WW

[Witherweaver]

If anyone wants to show me a possible person-colour pairing which is consistent with my results and doesn't have WW as white (and is not totally insane like options 1 and 4 in post #1618), I will listen to them. Otherwise, please PLEASE  just vote WW

You have to stop.

[Witherweaver]

There has been suspiciously few kills for multiple killing factions.

[iguanaiguana]

Haddock, my high horse comment was just a delightful throwback to D1 ^^

I have no further comment on your other stuff and would like to lynch scumslip chairs.

[Witherweaver]

Actually, are all deaths last night accounted for or is there one unknown?

[Haddock]

If anyone wants to show me a possible person-colour pairing which is consistent with my results and doesn't have WW as white (and is not totally insane like options 1 and 4 in post #1618), I will listen to them. Otherwise, please PLEASE  just vote WW

You have to stop.

No.
If you're town, you should be willing to do the work to do as I say. Should only take you an hour or so. At most.
I'll even write my results here again for your convenience.

N1:

LaLight/Teproc - RED
ashersky - YELLOW
Haddock - RED
Awaclus - YELLOW
gkrieg13 - RED
SpaceAnemone - WHITE
schadd - RED
chairs - YELLOW
2.71828..... - RED
DatSwan - BLUE
JaketheBaseb... - RED
Galzria - BLUE
Dylan32 - RED
iguanaiguana - RED
Witherweaver - RED
silverspawn - RED

Response: 7 right colour right place, 7 right colour wrong place.

N2:
EFHW: YELLOW
ash: RED
Haddock: RED
Awaclus: RED
gkrieg: RED
chairs: RED
e: RED
DatSwan: YELLOW
Jake: RED
Galz: RED
Dylan: BLUE
Iguana: RED
WW: YELLOW
silver: RED

7 right colour right place, 5 right colour wrong place.

N3:
Haddock: RED
e: RED
silver: RED
EFHW: RED
Galz: YELLOW
gkrieg: RED
Awaclus: RED
Swan: RED
Dylan: RED
Space: RED
chairs: RED
WW: BLUE
Iguana: BLUE
Jake: BLUE

7 right colour right place. 3 right colour wrong place.

Put up or shut up.

Haddock, my high horse comment was just a delightful throwback to D1 ^^

I have no further comment on your other stuff and would like to lynch scumslip chairs.

My results clear chairs. His slip was not bad enough to be a definite scumslip.

[Witherweaver]

Haddock, stop posting in this game.

[iguanaiguana]

Ok. One more comment.

I do not believe there are no kill werewolves in this game. But if chairs flips town I will reconsider, I promise.

[Witherweaver]

And feel free to draft the apology for me when the game is over.