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[gkrieg13]

Actually maybe voting Jake is fine again? I mostly got spooked by swan voting him.

I forgot if you have something against DatSwan, or if you are just reading him scummily.

DatSwan has way too much going on around him.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space, e, and chairs are being quiet. And gkrieg and Jake.

Space *may* be gone? They never confirmed what "3 days" meant. If it was IRL days, the zombie may have decomposed.

Sorry.. still here just very busy this weekend. Will catch up later or tomorrow.

Brains :-)

[gkrieg13]

I can say I have voting restrictions.

It would be pretty surprising to me if faust put a role with voting restrictions in the game.

[gkrieg13]

Gkrieg enters with a big post that is pretty safe in the sense that it aligns with the general aggregate consensus reads. Seems scummy to me. LaLight is suspiciously tossed into his scum reads (I think without any other mention). If Gkrieg is scum LaLight (now EFHW) is a good partner candidate.

But also realize that I have continued to go after LaLight/EFHW since then.  That is not what I do to my partners as scum. 

[gkrieg13]

The silence in the thread also reads to me that scum are pretty happy with the current status quo, which is lynching Jake.

It could also be that scum are waiting for someone to put something together on someone else that they could jump on.

[iguanaiguana]

Actually maybe voting Jake is fine again? I mostly got spooked by swan voting him.

I forgot if you have something against DatSwan, or if you are just reading him scummily.

DatSwan has way too much going on around him.

Galzria said that DatSwan was probably scum and I believed him. Then Gals took it back and I didn't have a solid reason to scum read DatSwan anymore.

[gkrieg13]

Can somebody repost the full bid order list?

lol lazy. This is my list.

Excel doesn't import well. It reads (by column):
DraftPOS - Player - RMM Bid - Station Bid

1 Swan   44       
2 PPS   xx     3   (SWORD STICK)
3 Iguana   28     
4 Ash   xx     
5 Space   18     
6 E!           16     3
7 Dylan   14
8 Jake   45
9 Schadd   43
10 Galz   40     1 (DAGGER)
11 Silver   31
12 Chairs   19
13 Awac    13     3   (PENALTY)---unverified
14 WW   13
15 EFHW   10
16 Hadd    32
17 GK   11

One thing I will point out is that I got the last position in the draft, and that I had misunderstood how the penalty items work.  I think I would be unlikely to get last place in the draft as scum, considering there were good items in there for scum, and good items in there for town.

[iguanaiguana]

I can say I have voting restrictions.

It would be pretty surprising to me if faust put a role with voting restrictions in the game.

The flipped priest had a voting restriction...

[gkrieg13]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

But, mafia each had fakeclaims, which were factored in, so they had a lot more information to work with.  Even the traitors had more information than town did.

[gkrieg13]

I get the points on Jake by WW and iguana. But why is he lurking so heavily and why no claim? It's been awhile, but I've never seen him lurk before. The point about scum liking the status quo is a good one, though.

We definitely do need to hear more from gkrieg, and the POE and level of scumminess are pretty similar to Jake's. vote: gkrieg.

Jake has lurked a lot more in his recent games than anyone else.

Also how do I hae the same level of scumminess of Jake?

[gkrieg13]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

Nah dude, we know there's another third party unless Haddock is mafia and making up results. My guess would be two mafia, two traitors, two third party.

Where on earth do you get 1 traitor = half a mafia?

Makes sense. Game of 17 would normally have what like 4 mafia and a SK right? So 3 mafia and 2 SK balanaces. At least that is how i read it

Except for the fact that we haven't had a night kill yet...

[gkrieg13]

@Galzria, A second lone wolf could share one of pps's colors, survivor or SK. I doubt SK bc of so few kills, but I don't think 3 mafia is as certain as you do.

If it's a second survivor I don't really care - and again with this many players having a Mafia "team" (QT access) of only two players, who have yet to show a kill, seems highly unlikely. The only "kills" that have been made are Lynches of PPS, a Mod kill, the "lynch" of Space, and probably* Ash, which would come from a traitor anyway and may very well be on scum.

A second SK, as you note, is even more unlikely.

2/2/1/1/10 is highly unbalanced against Mafia. There are, almost certainly, 3 "regular" mafia.

So I mean point taken, but isn't that only sixteen players?

So assuming 3/2/1/1/10... Is that likely? I mean I am actually asking, this is only the second 17 person game I have every played

Mafia would need a team of at least 5 to be balanced.  Mistborn had 5 regular mafia with this many people.

[gkrieg13]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Why do you say this?  How are we increasing the likelihood of multiple traitors?

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

Um.  You're saying 3 scum, 2 traitors, 1 PPS?  That's impossible.  By my previous analysis:

So, to summarise realistic possibilities (remembering the possibility - haven't confirmed this yet - that Awaclus is being seen as a scum colour):

We currently have either:

1) 1 yellow and 2 blues, in which case I failed to pair any scum with their colour on N1.

2) 1 yellow 3 blues.  No conclusions to draw here if this is the case.

3) 2 yellows, 1 white.  means there were 2Y2W on N1, making schadd part of a 2-person scumteam.  Possible but unlikely?

4) 2 yellows, 2 whites.  Means schadd was white.  Also means (I think) that I failed to correctly pair any scum with their colour on N1.

ie we have at least 2 non-town colours left alive.  Assuming that Traitors are considered the same alignment as scum, which they should be, that makes 3 mafia + 2 traitors + PPS impossible.  (2 mafia, 2 traitors, 1 PPS and something else is still possible - meaning we're in situation (2) above, with mafia/traitors = blue - but, again, why assume 2 traitors?)

PPS was two colors. That leaves Mafia and Town.

We don't know this for certain, and anyway there might be other SKs or survivors.  Indeed there MUST be, by the above analysis.  It's possible I've screwed up, and it's likely that my results have been messed with.  But still.

If you read the Caitlin role, you'll see the bit about being recruited means either freeze or nk, can't have both.

True, it's less pro-scum; it is more swingy. Maybe we are all town talking to each other and scum have given up because they had some bad luck.

How is it less pro-scum?  As far as I can tell, it's a kill that doesn't provide town with a flip until several cycles later.  That's better than a kill, for scum.

Another thing to note is that there must be at least 3 roles or fake claims in the game from RMM 11, which included an SK.

[gkrieg13]

I'm fine with a gkrieg lynch.  And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I'm definitely feeling that way.  He had a post where he said that he just wanted to catch and kill all the scums, which is something he has said as scum before.  I also don't like how quickly he was removed from PoE, when he as I remember should be in the same group as me and Jake and silver.

[gkrieg13]

Let's not no lynch. Let's lynch Gkrieg and get a scum.

Is this read solely based on how people responded to Jake's lynch?  Because this is contingent on a lot of PoE, and I'm surprised that your reads switched so quickly.

[gkrieg13]

Haddock it's two traitors because Caitlin Frost, who was a traitor in their previous game, is the only role that can freeze people.

Ah yes I remember.  Thanks, that makes sense. 

Yeah we need to be moving towards a lynch now.  I'm happy with either Jake or gkrieg.  Or even Swan though not so much now, after all the PoEs etc.

I'll vote: gkrieg just to try to move things along.  Meanwhile can people also answer this question?

And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I think he's said townie things, and I think he's been a little bit abrasive - but I feel he plays that way more as scum than town. Certainly I felt that way as his scum partner in 100 - especially seeing him as town in follow up games where he definitely felt... less so. That is to say - I find he's more talkative and tends to come off with townier sounding posts when he's scum, and less talkative and scummier when he's town.

I also think that IF Ash flips town, then almost certainly one of him/Datswan are scum - and right now I lean a stronger town on DatSwan than I do on Iguana. If Ash flips scum, then I would re-evaluate. But I do not believe that the top 6 were all town except for PPS as the SK/Survivor.

Are you saying that you feel like iguana has been less talkative and scummier this game?

[Haddock]

@Galzria, A second lone wolf could share one of pps's colors, survivor or SK. I doubt SK bc of so few kills, but I don't think 3 mafia is as certain as you do.

If it's a second survivor I don't really care - and again with this many players having a Mafia "team" (QT access) of only two players, who have yet to show a kill, seems highly unlikely. The only "kills" that have been made are Lynches of PPS, a Mod kill, the "lynch" of Space, and probably* Ash, which would come from a traitor anyway and may very well be on scum.

A second SK, as you note, is even more unlikely.

2/2/1/1/10 is highly unbalanced against Mafia. There are, almost certainly, 3 "regular" mafia.

So I mean point taken, but isn't that only sixteen players?

So assuming 3/2/1/1/10... Is that likely? I mean I am actually asking, this is only the second 17 person game I have every played

Mafia would need a team of at least 5 to be balanced.  Mistborn had 5 regular mafia with this many people.

My results make 5 or more mafia impossible.  There could be some kind of messing with my results.  But let's not speculate right now, huh? 

I'm fine with a gkrieg lynch.  And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I'm definitely feeling that way.  He had a post where he said that he just wanted to catch and kill all the scums, which is something he has said as scum before.  I also don't like how quickly he was removed from PoE, when he as I remember should be in the same group as me and Jake and silver.

The same PoE applies to him, yes.  But when I reread him my original scumread on him became very heavy town.  And now I'm doubting myself again. 

Let's face it we're not getting a lynch through on him today.

[gkrieg13]

Last night I was in the middle of typing my thoughts after reading gkrieg and my battery died. Decided going to bed was more important than rebooting just to post one more time. So gkrieg has a bunch of "busy, I'll catch up later," which I hope and will assume just means he actually is busy irl. He does have several posts that are typical, alignment neutral catch up posts. Some good points, but in general didn't rock the boat with any of his reads. I could be wrong, but he usually seems to have at least one opinion that either doesn't match most of town early on, or is/acts more confident in a read than other people think is warranted. He doesn't really do that here though, which makes me wonder if the reads are being faked here.

Ultimately, I'd vote for either Jake or gkrieg right now. Where do the two wagons currently stand?

I have been incredibly busy IRL.  We just had prospective PhD students come by and visit, so my Friday and Saturday were basically completely taken up by that, and classes are over next Wednesday, so I've been finishing up some end of semester projects and such.

[gkrieg13]

Space, e, and chairs are being quiet. And gkrieg and Jake.

You are also being fairly quiet.

[gkrieg13]

Actually maybe voting Jake is fine again? I mostly got spooked by swan voting him.

I forgot if you have something against DatSwan, or if you are just reading him scummily.

DatSwan has way too much going on around him.

Galzria said that DatSwan was probably scum and I believed him. Then Gals took it back and I didn't have a solid reason to scum read DatSwan anymore.

Interesting.  Did you reread DatSwan, or did you have any reason other than what Galz didn't explain?  Do you completely trust that galz is town, and if so, why?

[gkrieg13]

I can say I have voting restrictions.

It would be pretty surprising to me if faust put a role with voting restrictions in the game.

The flipped priest had a voting restriction...

Ya.  Those are icky.  I was surprised when that flipped as well, especially after what happened in rewind 1.

[Witherweaver]

Vote: Gkrieg

Not completely caught up.

[Witherweaver]

Haddock, did you check with Faust how a Godfather would affect your results?

[Witherweaver]

I'm fine with a gkrieg lynch.  And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I have gone back and forth some, but I don't think he's scum. At any rate he's, like, the most active player now, so wouldn't be a good lynch regardless.

[gkrieg13]

@Galzria, A second lone wolf could share one of pps's colors, survivor or SK. I doubt SK bc of so few kills, but I don't think 3 mafia is as certain as you do.

If it's a second survivor I don't really care - and again with this many players having a Mafia "team" (QT access) of only two players, who have yet to show a kill, seems highly unlikely. The only "kills" that have been made are Lynches of PPS, a Mod kill, the "lynch" of Space, and probably* Ash, which would come from a traitor anyway and may very well be on scum.

A second SK, as you note, is even more unlikely.

2/2/1/1/10 is highly unbalanced against Mafia. There are, almost certainly, 3 "regular" mafia.

So I mean point taken, but isn't that only sixteen players?

So assuming 3/2/1/1/10... Is that likely? I mean I am actually asking, this is only the second 17 person game I have every played

Mafia would need a team of at least 5 to be balanced.  Mistborn had 5 regular mafia with this many people.

My results make 5 or more mafia impossible.  There could be some kind of messing with my results.  But let's not speculate right now, huh? 

I'm fine with a gkrieg lynch.  And I'm getting paranoid about my townread on iguana again - anyone else feeling that way?

I'm definitely feeling that way.  He had a post where he said that he just wanted to catch and kill all the scums, which is something he has said as scum before.  I also don't like how quickly he was removed from PoE, when he as I remember should be in the same group as me and Jake and silver.

The same PoE applies to him, yes.  But when I reread him my original scumread on him became very heavy town.  And now I'm doubting myself again. 

Let's face it we're not getting a lynch through on him today.

Why are we not getting a lynch through on him?  There were 4 people IIRC who were PoEd by your results, iguana, Jake, myself, silver.  People then said that we wouldn't lynch silver today (I agree), and that iguana was townie, then everyone basically has reiterated that iguana is townie so the lynch pool is {gkrieg, Jake}.  I agree that the PoE is there, but it seems like people aren't realizing that the PoE has been taken down further than is 100% true.  I guess what I'm trying to say is that it seems like everyone agreed that because of PoE, one of {gkrieg,Jake} must be scum, which isn't what the results show.

We have 24 hours still, so we could get a lynch through on anyone really.