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[2.71828.....]

Who reasonably gets draft #1?

faust

[Galzria]

Who reasonably gets draft #1?

faust

Not really. And while he MAY play this way as scum, no way he does it as Poisoner.

[Swowl]

Space, the missing NK -could- also be explained by Gkrieg targeting me. He could've redirected an attempted kill to a dead player.

Does that mean that the attempted kill had to be from Qvist, or performed by a ninja, though? Otherwise I think I'd have seen a third player targeting you.

So... just saying.
GK re directs actions from Galz onto himself.
Qivst shields the Candidates giving Galz a shield.
The shield gets transferred from Galz to GK.
There was no NK so the assumption is that a kill was attempted on either GK or Galz - either way ending up on GK.

If we think the options are either NK went somewhere else, or it was Qivst, or it was a ninja I just want to throw out another option...
Team is Galz, Space , XXXX... Galz shot at GK, Space watched Galz.

Just the obvious thought that came to mind. I need to look back to consider if I actually think it is likely but yeah.

[2.71828.....]

Who reasonably gets draft #1?

faust

Not really. And while he MAY play this way as scum, no way he does it as Poisoner.

I wasn't necessarily referring to his play, but more that he is the type of person who gets #1 bid. Or space.

[2.71828.....]

I am honestly not following some of these conspiracy theories as closely as I might. My rule of thumb for mafia: the simplest solution is often the right one

[Robz888]

Had dream. Man patted my head, I loved it. He said, "Go wake Jack."

Vote Count 4.3

faust (2): 2.71828, Qvist
Galzria (2): Teproc, O
DatSwan (1): Galzria

Not Voting (5): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, RoadRunner7671, DatSwan, faust

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 4 ends on October 10 at 4:00 PM.

[Eevee]

I'll get to rereading in a couple of hours.

[Roadrunner7671]

I don't see why we shouldn't lynch faust if we're very confident he's scum. The pool will be narrowed with the kills tonight, and our PRs might be able to get something.

[faust]

I struggle so much to see scum Faust playing the way he has. Ii's so blatantly scummy, and I just really believe he would be more polished as scum. The problem is, from a town perspective, I've only ever seen town Faust. And this isn't obviously that either. So I'm incredibly on the fence with him. I would not oppose his lynch, I think, but also would not at all be surprised if we lost by lynching him.

You might want to put some work into your reads then. And by developing reads I don't mean wildly speculating about bids which does not lead anywhere at all.

[faust]

So... I trust Qvist to be smart enough to figure all this out anyway, but we have (purely bids here)

1. ScummyMcScumster (4 or 8): Poisioner
2. ?????? (8 or 15)
3. Space (16): Watcher
4. Galzria (42): VT, Failed Poisoner
5. Teproc (7): Mason
6. LaLight (14): Jailkeeper
7. RR (35): VT, Failed Watcher
8. ???? (52 to 72)
9. e (73): JoaT
10. DatSwan (23): VT, Failed Barracks
11. ???? (23)
12. Qvist (5): PotI
13. Eevee (5): Tracker
14. O (3): VT, Failed Last Recruit
15. faust (3): VT, Failed Redirector
16. ??? (3)
17. ??? (3)

Unclaimed bids:
gkrieg - Draft #11 or #8: Redirector
chairs - ????: VT
WW - ????: VT
IDPTG - ????: VT
Jimmm - Probably Draft #2: 2nd Day IC

I am again completely thrown off by the fact that noone went for the strongest role, Gunsmith. I want to say that makes all top spots considerably scummy. The again noone went for is last time and I was stunned by that fact there as well. Still, it makes Space and Galzria scummier as they went for slots that are more useful for scum over slots that help only town, and are better for town.

[faust]

What are your thoughts on DatSwan going for Barracks and claiming to fail?
I have my doubts anyone with a single digit position would go for it.

Why is that? I made a power ranking of the slots in the first run and had Barracks at position 6. It's pretty strong.

[faust]

I think faust is still the best target.
faust was very evasive and his claim to have chosen Redirector in very late position seems very scummy.

I do not get you. You agreed that Teproc should not claim last. This is what I was trying to achieve by being "evasive", and I succeeded. So I did something that you seem to think is pro-town, why is that scummy.

Second - why do you think choosing Redirector at my position is scummy? It's not. It gives me quite important information with little downside. Obviously I am biting myself in the ass for not having gone for Gunsmith, but that wasn't really foreseeable.

[Galzria]

I struggle so much to see scum Faust playing the way he has. Ii's so blatantly scummy, and I just really believe he would be more polished as scum. The problem is, from a town perspective, I've only ever seen town Faust. And this isn't obviously that either. So I'm incredibly on the fence with him. I would not oppose his lynch, I think, but also would not at all be surprised if we lost by lynching him.

You might want to put some work into your reads then. And by developing reads I don't mean wildly speculating about bids which does not lead anywhere at all.

I don't think I need advice from you on how to successfully play as town, thanks.

[faust]

I don't think we should lynch faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

It's complete bogus to lynch based on who bid what. If that were important information for getting reads, we should have massclaimed D1, which if I remember correctly you opposed.  We should lynch based on play, but none of you seems to care one bit for anything that happened in this game prior to the massclaim.

[faust]

Me and Teproc both probably don't want to lynch Faust.

Here's a relief.

[Galzria]

I don't think we should lynch faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

It's complete bogus to lynch based on who bid what. If that were important information for getting reads, we should have massclaimed D1, which if I remember correctly you opposed.  We should lynch based on play, but none of you seems to care one bit for anything that happened in this game prior to the massclaim.

It's absolutely, 100%, not bogus, no. Scum made bids. Those bids were designed to get them high draft spots. Deciphering what bids they made is completely relevant to who they are.

[Galzria]

I don't think we should lynch faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

It's complete bogus to lynch based on who bid what. If that were important information for getting reads, we should have massclaimed D1, which if I remember correctly you opposed.  We should lynch based on play, but none of you seems to care one bit for anything that happened in this game prior to the massclaim.

Also, lynch on play? How about lynching the only person not to lynch scum - the same one who lynched town D1? Oh, that's you? We can do that.

[faust]

Well, I haven't had the time to reread the other two, will try to get to it this WE, but yeah I do think Galz is our best chance at lyncing scum here.

Rereading, the whole "town!iguana might shoot even though he totally shouldn't" could easily have been at attempt to direct blocking and tracking roles on iguana, and he's been... playing it very safe today, let's say. His claim is believable enough but super convenient too.

vote: Galz

That seems lazy as hell.

[faust]

I think all other targets than faust are just shots in the dark that will likely make us lose. For faust there is at least decent indication/evidence.

No.

[faust]

I'm definitely feeling swan over galz here, but I think
Faust is my favorite

Why?

[faust]

Here, Faust is in that situation of being 100% wrong. That said, his sample size is far smaller (3 lynches), and Iguana was lynched primarily by those who logged on - so it's not quite fair to hold that one against him (I'm assuming he didn't post D3, but could be wrong).

I did post D3. But I did not want a quicklynch. Apparently now that makes me scummy. The worlds is upside down.

[faust]

I don't see why we shouldn't lynch faust if we're very confident he's scum. The pool will be narrowed with the kills tonight, and our PRs might be able to get something.

WHY are you confident that I am scum? Noone should be.

[faust]

I don't think we should lynch faust today, after having thought about it more. Partly because if he's scum, I don't think he's the Poisoner, but also because I think we should lynch among the people who bid a Lost number. Thats {Space, Galzria, DatSwan} btw.

It's complete bogus to lynch based on who bid what. If that were important information for getting reads, we should have massclaimed D1, which if I remember correctly you opposed.  We should lynch based on play, but none of you seems to care one bit for anything that happened in this game prior to the massclaim.

It's absolutely, 100%, not bogus, no. Scum made bids. Those bids were designed to get them high draft spots. Deciphering what bids they made is completely relevant to who they are.

Then why did you not argue for a massclaim D1?

[Roadrunner7671]

2. Galzria
4. 2.71828.....
9. Datswan
13. faust

This is the pool for me, based on PoE. Three of them are mafia, one of them is not. So our chances are pretty good.

[faust]

Well I'm going to reread iguana tomorrow which apparently noone here has ever even considered. Maybe then we can talk about actual scumtells.