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[Swowl]

If Jake is lynched and town, faust will likely be the first place I will be looking.

Well let's just hope he flips scum then. Also setting up mislynches yada yada

Help the noobs out... yada yada?

[faust]

Teproc is IC. He doesn't need to give reasons. So don't bother asking. If you ask, it makes you more suspicious in my opinion.

I wanted to point out that RR is townie for his last-minute vote. I think scum!RR is more likely to let the deadline pass and force a no-lynch than to be the decisive vote on a town wagon.

If RR is going to be the lynch I think the above needs to be resolved. I have already said I don't think RR should be getting town points for it, but he at least showed up.

I remember being scum in a game with RR where he intentionally skipped the deadline for no lynch, so that leads me to believe that him showing up is on the townie side.

[faust]

If Jake is lynched and town, faust will likely be the first place I will be looking.

Well let's just hope he flips scum then. Also setting up mislynches yada yada

Help the noobs out... yada yada?

"Setting up mislynches" (meaning to say "if X flips town, we should go after Y") is generally considered a scumtell. I don't actually think scum does it, but it is anti-town in that it tells scum where suspicions will lie on the following day and they can plan their nightkill to steer things in the right direction for them, while it's not doing a whole lot for town. This is what I was trying to express with "yada yada" - admittedly not my most eloquent moment.

[Teproc]

Don't like all those hypotheticals "if X flips Y then what happens".

@DatSwan: One information you might want to know is that RR and Jake know each other in real life. They are prone to fighting and interacting a lot, usually. That they aren't here is indicative of something, I'd say.

[LaLight]

Vote Count 2.4

Galzria (3): JaketheBaseballGod22, AndrewisFTTW, DatSwan
JaketheBaseballGod22 (4): Roadrunner7671, Galzria, chairs, faust
faust (1): Skumpy
Roadrunner7671 (1): Teproc

Not voting (2): Xxraptorslayer96, The_Wine_Merchant

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 ends Wednesday, August 16 at 2:30 pm forum time.

[Teproc]

Don't like all those hypotheticals "if X flips Y then what happens".

@DatSwan: One information you might want to know is that RR and Jake know each other in real life. They are prone to fighting and interacting a lot, usually. That they aren't here is indicative of something, I'd say.

That's unnecesarily cagey actually. In general I'd say the lurkier RR is, the most likely he is to be scum, though that's by no means a 100% thing. But the fact that he and Jake have been barely interacting at all makes me think one of them is scum. I'm not as convinced as I was earlier today of Jake's towniness, but of the two I think RR is more likely to flip scum. And I generally think there is more scum among the lurkers than among the active people in this game.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

If Jake is lynched and town, faust will likely be the first place I will be looking.

Well let's just hope he flips scum then. Also setting up mislynches yada yada

Context. I was asked a specific question. Not setting up lynches.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Faust. If you do get on soon could restate where you want your vote? There is some confusion.

After rereading, vote: Jake

May be L-1? I don't care all that much. Given the situation we definitely want Jake to claim right away.

Any thoughts on the who is already voting him thing? I am with you that he is scummy, but that is holding me back and would love to hear what you think.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Don't like all those hypotheticals "if X flips Y then what happens".

I thought you were theasking the question originally. Could be misremembering though.

[faust]

Faust. If you do get on soon could restate where you want your vote? There is some confusion.

After rereading, vote: Jake

May be L-1? I don't care all that much. Given the situation we definitely want Jake to claim right away.

Any thoughts on the who is already voting him thing? I am with you that he is scummy, but that is holding me back and would love to hear what you think.

We currently have this group:

Roadrunner7671, Galzria, chairs, faust

RR and chairs are tentatively townie in my book, and while Galzria is scummy, it look him a while to join this wagon, so I'm fine with that. Don't see a reason why that should hold me back.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Faust. If you do get on soon could restate where you want your vote? There is some confusion.

After rereading, vote: Jake

May be L-1? I don't care all that much. Given the situation we definitely want Jake to claim right away.

Any thoughts on the who is already voting him thing? I am with you that he is scummy, but that is holding me back and would love to hear what you think.

We currently have this group:

Roadrunner7671, Galzria, chairs, faust

RR and chairs are tentatively townie in my book, and while Galzria is scummy, it look him a while to join this wagon, so I'm fine with that. Don't see a reason why that should hold me back.

Sorry. My typing was more. Meant to ask about the analysis that neraly everyone in the game has voted for Jake at a crucial moment, either today or early yesterday. Does scum feel compelled to do that? Especially with the IC being solidly against it?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

I hate phone posting.

[faust]

Faust. If you do get on soon could restate where you want your vote? There is some confusion.

After rereading, vote: Jake

May be L-1? I don't care all that much. Given the situation we definitely want Jake to claim right away.

Any thoughts on the who is already voting him thing? I am with you that he is scummy, but that is holding me back and would love to hear what you think.

We currently have this group:

Roadrunner7671, Galzria, chairs, faust

RR and chairs are tentatively townie in my book, and while Galzria is scummy, it look him a while to join this wagon, so I'm fine with that. Don't see a reason why that should hold me back.

Sorry. My typing was more. Meant to ask about the analysis that neraly everyone in the game has voted for Jake at a crucial moment, either today or early yesterday. Does scum feel compelled to do that? Especially with the IC being solidly against it?

Well. I would not be surprised if scum voted for him at some point. If everyone is so willing to vote for him, then why wasn't he lynched yet? That's because scum only votes there at convenient times. Probably 1 scum bussed at some point, assuming the other didn't still leaves a selection of 2-3 people for that person, right? And my working theory is a Jake/Galzria/DatSwan scumteam, which totally fits with the data presented. I am not concerned about this.

[chairs]

I hate phone posting.

+1 also hate phone posting.

At work but hope to contribute later today.

[Teproc]

Worth noting that many people had voted for Jake or expressed a willigness to do so before I opposed it... it's kind of why I felt compelled to say something, his lynch felt inevitable.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

2) My analysis of the wagons yesterday. I still believe strongly that there is one scum between {Andrew, DatSwan}. This is ESPECIALLY true if Jake is Town - because to believe otherwise means that {Robz, Jake} had 3 scum voting them but we struggled to lynch... And that doesn't make sense. With that much scum coaching it should've been way easier. I digress however. The thing that caught my attention was that Jake was NOT voting Robz.

- From town!Jake's perspective this doesn't make sense. We needed a lynch. Any lynch other than him is a better lynch than him. Yes, he had a stated town read on Robz - but he would've KNOWN that he himself was town. That makes Robz an infinitely better vote. But he wasn't there. He wasn't helping us get to lynch.

- From Scum!Jake's POV this is just fine however. He doesn't care if we actually lynch, so he's in no push to make it happen. Further, if we do lynch Robz, he'll flip town. Scum!Jake knows this and would rather not be on that wagon. Easier to point fingers at those who lynched a townie or say "I told you so". And lastly, if things did start to shift around or back to him he always had his vote as a card in his back pocket to reapply pressure to Robz or whomever if needed.

I hadn't looked in detail at the wagons until two days ago. Even when I saw the above it struck me as off, but not immediately vote worthy. After sleeping on it though and having him come in yesterday and respond as he did it kinda tipped me over.

This makes no sense. If I was scum wouldn't I want to be on the robz lynch to ensure I wasn't???

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Actual question - if I am VT does he claim still hurt town iyo?

Yes. Scum at night is primarily trying to hunt for PRs to eliminate them as PRs are the biggest threat. When a town player claims VT scum knows their alignment and knows they are unlikely to be lying, therefore they can use process of elimination to night kill other players that have not claimed as they are more likely to be a PR than the claimed player.

^Exactly why you don't prematurely claim. Galz knows this. Town!Galz would not do this.

So would Scum!Galz. I think Galz of either alignment had a reason. And not just a "this won't get me lynched" reason if he is scum. Scum!Galz would have a reason. Town!Galz would have a reason, I have to think.

Notable fact is that scum knows the setup. Many PRs means scum will be forced into VT claims and this makes such claims more dangerous. scum!Galzria might have seen this and decided to make his claim stick out.

Agree

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Faust. If you do get on soon could restate where you want your vote? There is some confusion.

After rereading, vote: Jake

May be L-1? I don't care all that much. Given the situation we definitely want Jake to claim right away.

No thanks. Scummy

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Don't like all those hypotheticals "if X flips Y then what happens".

@DatSwan: One information you might want to know is that RR and Jake know each other in real life. They are prone to fighting and interacting a lot, usually. That they aren't here is indicative of something, I'd say.

Seriously this same exact thing has been said like the last 5 games we've been in together.

[Teproc]

Don't like all those hypotheticals "if X flips Y then what happens".

@DatSwan: One information you might want to know is that RR and Jake know each other in real life. They are prone to fighting and interacting a lot, usually. That they aren't here is indicative of something, I'd say.

Seriously this same exact thing has been said like the last 5 games we've been in together.

Has it ? I don't remember it in Fleetwood Mac (a game in which I suspected you but not RR).

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Don't like all those hypotheticals "if X flips Y then what happens".

@DatSwan: One information you might want to know is that RR and Jake know each other in real life. They are prone to fighting and interacting a lot, usually. That they aren't here is indicative of something, I'd say.

Seriously this same exact thing has been said like the last 5 games we've been in together.

Has it ? I don't remember it in Fleetwood Mac (a game in which I suspected you but not RR).

Yes

[Teproc]

Don't like all those hypotheticals "if X flips Y then what happens".

@DatSwan: One information you might want to know is that RR and Jake know each other in real life. They are prone to fighting and interacting a lot, usually. That they aren't here is indicative of something, I'd say.

Seriously this same exact thing has been said like the last 5 games we've been in together.

Has it ? I don't remember it in Fleetwood Mac (a game in which I suspected you but not RR).

Yes

Do you have a read on RR ?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Well. I would not be surprised if scum voted for him at some point. If everyone is so willing to vote for him, then why wasn't he lynched yet? That's because scum only votes there at convenient times. Probably 1 scum bussed at some point, assuming the other didn't still leaves a selection of 2-3 people for that person, right? And my working theory is a Jake/Galzria/DatSwan scumteam, which totally fits with the data presented. I am not concerned about this.

List of all players -
faust - early and throughout Day 1 and Day 2
Andrew - hasn't voted for Jake
gkrieg - dead town
Teproc - IC
RR - voted for Jake middle and late of Day 2
Raptor - voted for Jake early and middle of Day 2
Galz - voted for Jake only toward end of Day 2
chairs - voted for Jake throughout all of Day 2
Skumpy - voted for Jake early and throughout Day 1 until very, very end
TWM - voted for Jake early and throughout Day 1 and throughout Day 2
Robz - dead town
Jake - player in question
Datswan - hasn't voted for Jake

So I agree with your point but which one out of those voting for Jake could be an actual busser. I feel it is limited. Galz and Raptor. Andrew and Datswan are the only ones off.

So I guess that is decent. I am still concerned about it, but I feel overly concerned about everything this game.

vote: Jake

That should be L-1.

[Skumpy]

Reread through everything, not so sure where to go from here.

@faust: A possible team? I don't know, something like you/RR/XX. Or maybe chairs somewhere in there? I haven't seen any evidence suggesting against this.

Skummy to say 'lynch X, then if he's town, lynch Y', when scum doesn't actually does this? You are aware that makes no sense right? In any case, I just really don't want to get shutout my first game, which I'm sensing is going to happen anyways. So my goal is to try and isolate two people, look at them and reason 'If both of these 2 people are town, does it follow that there could be a team somewhere else?' And right now, the pair of Faust and Jake seems to fit that best. If TWM is town - and that is an 'if', but he's so quick with posts that match exactly what I'm thinking that he's seriously underrated and is playing on a whole other level if he's scum - then there were 5 town voting for a town with 7 hours to go, and there was absolutely no reason for scum to suspect I'd flip to Robz.

You could also throw RR in that mix, and there's a very good narrative for any of the two of the three of them to be teamed.

RR could be very well be scum, I've voted for him twice this game (neither of which lasted very long, but hey, just stating facts here). If the wagon builds on him and I have to vote, I will. My concern is that if he is town, I'm not as sure where to go next as I would be if it's faust or jake. But RR is still very high on my suspect list, and I understand Teproc's push.

PPE

[Galzria]

Exercise for those of you voting me:

If I'm lynched, I'll flip town.

- Assume we're at that point right now. In twilight.  Reactions? Thoughts on who scum actually is?

I'll do the same for Jake tomorrow and suggest others voting Jake do the same too. This isn't special just for me.

If Jake is Town, as I've already stated, I would be almost certainly locked in on {Andrew, DatSwan}.

The biggest reason is that given the group of people I know to be town at that point {Robz, Gkrieg, Jake, Teproc, Galzria}, 4 of them had their votes on {Robz, Jake} at D1 end. If the scum team were also all on {Robz, Jake} that's 7 votes.

This is the end of day vote for those two players:

Robz888 (7): Galzria, chairs, Xxraptorslayer96, Skumpy, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671, Teproc
JaketheBaseballGod22 (3): faust, Robz888, The_Wine_Merchant

Possible scum in this group: {Chairs, Raptor, Skumpy, Roadrunner, Faust, TWM}

If Jake is town I strongly suspect Skumpy is as well - I don't think scum!Skumpy WIFOM's a change from one town wagon to another just to get a lynch. TWM I also read strongly as town right now.

Now, there COULD be 3 scum in {Chairs, Faust, Roadrunner, Raptor}. Certainly would have us in a bind right now as they're getting collectively very little heat - and don't look to be any time soon. But I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 of those 3 be scum if Jake is town, with the last one between Andrew and DatSwan.

So I guess those combination of pairings is where I would be looking. 2-3 of {Faust, Chairs, Roadrunner, Raptor}, and 1 of {Andrew, DatSwan}. Maybe I should focus more on the first group?

Vote Count 2.4

Galzria (3): JaketheBaseballGod22, AndrewisFTTW, DatSwan
JaketheBaseballGod22 (4): Roadrunner7671, Galzria, chairs, faust
faust (1): Skumpy
Roadrunner7671 (1): Teproc

Not voting (2): Xxraptorslayer96, The_Wine_Merchant

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 ends Wednesday, August 16 at 2:30 pm forum time.

If Jake is town then there's almost certainly 1 scum on me, and 2 on Jake (plus or minus Raptor). These wagons break down to match my previous analysis almost perfectly.