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[The_Wine_Merchant]

Faust. If you do get on soon could restate where you want your vote? There is some confusion.

On Jake. Is it not there for some reason? Am I hammering or something if I revote?

All the vote counts have had you on Galz. I don't think you would be hammering. I am not voting for him currently. But we were at L-1 without knowing it (not your fault).

[Galzria]

I'm in agreement right now. Jake is either scum or being intentionally unhelpful when asked simple straightforward questions. And it carries a decent narrative for everything that's happened so far. I didn't really lean scum on him earlier in the day, but the combination of my own analysis yesterday and the way he's chosen to interact and respond...

I'm good with vote: Jake

So okay. I'm not sure I like this. Lemme try to phrase my thoughts in a way that will make sense to you and others.

Before, you had expressed a not-scum read on Jake, meaning that you didn't see the scum motive for things he did (like not being on the Robz wagon). All of a sudden, you flip yourself onto Jake because he hasn't been answering questions. He hasn't been doing this the entire game, but your vote comes a few posts after he doesn't really answer a question about your and DatSwan's claim. I feel like you're only voting for Jake because you got 'involved' with him, given that his question he didn't answer was about you. This seems defensive to me, and I'd like you to respond to it before we continue. I feel like your response(s) to this are gonna basically make or break my read on you.
PPE

Alright, first off:

There's a difference between a "not-scum" read and "town" read. It's never really been that I haven't wanted to see him lynched, it's just that I've never really seem justification for him to be the top lynch choice.

I still don't really see what all the fuss over him yesterday was. Yes, he was absent, but that's often just Jake. When he came in he posted a bunch, in bursts. But that's also just Jake. I never felt, despite what TWM claimed, that he was avoiding questions. Things directed at him he answered. Things genetically asked he usually left alone. But he wasn't "avoiding" in my eyes.

At the start of today his wagon picked up exactly where it left off and where one would assume "either/or" lynches would start. Robz was town doesn't default mean Jake is scum though so again nothing presented itself for me to read him one way or another.

Much of today has been focused around me. Understandably. What WAS directed at Jake was a pushed mostly by TWM who was claiming that Jake had been avoiding. As I hadn't noticed it D1 I kinda understand Jake's frustration - but I decided to reread TWM looking exactly for all the things Jake had been ignoring. I didn't find much.

So yeah - not much there. From either side. But TWM's absolute conviction over this leads me to read town on him. 

The problem for Jake then is twofold and recent:

1) I feel like over the past 24-48 hours Jake HAS been intentionally vague and non-responsive. Especially in a way that is completely by choice. He knows what's been asked of him and he's choosing to be as short and nondetailed as possible.

- This could be entirely out of frustration. But I know that I, for one, have at least asked him not to let his frustration dictate his posts. It doesn't help him or us. But still it persists.

- You could be correct in that I'm just noticing it more because it's about me. I don't feel that's accurate but it could be. Certainly I'm probably a little more invested in responses and reads when they're about me.

2) My analysis of the wagons yesterday. I still believe strongly that there is one scum between {Andrew, DatSwan}. This is ESPECIALLY true if Jake is Town - because to believe otherwise means that {Robz, Jake} had 3 scum voting them but we struggled to lynch... And that doesn't make sense. With that much scum coaching it should've been way easier. I digress however. The thing that caught my attention was that Jake was NOT voting Robz.

- From town!Jake's perspective this doesn't make sense. We needed a lynch. Any lynch other than him is a better lynch than him. Yes, he had a stated town read on Robz - but he would've KNOWN that he himself was town. That makes Robz an infinitely better vote. But he wasn't there. He wasn't helping us get to lynch.

- From Scum!Jake's POV this is just fine however. He doesn't care if we actually lynch, so he's in no push to make it happen. Further, if we do lynch Robz, he'll flip town. Scum!Jake knows this and would rather not be on that wagon. Easier to point fingers at those who lynched a townie or say "I told you so". And lastly, if things did start to shift around or back to him he always had his vote as a card in his back pocket to reapply pressure to Robz or whomever if needed.

I hadn't looked in detail at the wagons until two days ago. Even when I saw the above it struck me as off, but not immediately vote worthy. After sleeping on it though and having him come in yesterday and respond as he did it kinda tipped me over.

[AndrewisFTTW]

Very busy weekend. I'll catch up tonight or tomorrow.

[Galzria]

Exercise for those of you voting me:

If I'm lynched, I'll flip town.

- Assume we're at that point right now. In twilight.  Reactions? Thoughts on who scum actually is?

I'll do the same for Jake tomorrow and suggest others voting Jake do the same too. This isn't special just for me.

If Jake is Town, as I've already stated, I would be almost certainly locked in on {Andrew, DatSwan}.

The biggest reason is that given the group of people I know to be town at that point {Robz, Gkrieg, Jake, Teproc, Galzria}, 4 of them had their votes on {Robz, Jake} at D1 end. If the scum team were also all on {Robz, Jake} that's 7 votes.

This is the end of day vote for those two players:

Robz888 (7): Galzria, chairs, Xxraptorslayer96, Skumpy, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671, Teproc
JaketheBaseballGod22 (3): faust, Robz888, The_Wine_Merchant

Possible scum in this group: {Chairs, Raptor, Skumpy, Roadrunner, Faust, TWM}

If Jake is town I strongly suspect Skumpy is as well - I don't think scum!Skumpy WIFOM's a change from one town wagon to another just to get a lynch. TWM I also read strongly as town right now.

Now, there COULD be 3 scum in {Chairs, Faust, Roadrunner, Raptor}. Certainly would have us in a bind right now as they're getting collectively very little heat - and don't look to be any time soon. But I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 of those 3 be scum if Jake is town, with the last one between Andrew and DatSwan.

So I guess those combination of pairings is where I would be looking. 2-3 of {Faust, Chairs, Roadrunner, Raptor}, and 1 of {Andrew, DatSwan}. Maybe I should focus more on the first group?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Fuck.

I'm gonna claim. Don't know if it's good or not - but fuck.

I'm a Good Memory, VT.

Well. I think I am at a point where I would like Galz to actually explain the reasoning behind this claim.

I didn't want to have to get to that point yet, but I, honestly, need something to ground my reads off at this point and I think this is a good place to do that.

Why and when did you claim here Galz. Have you gained anything out of it? Has town gained anything out of it?

[Galzria]

Fuck.

I'm gonna claim. Don't know if it's good or not - but fuck.

I'm a Good Memory, VT.

Well. I think I am at a point where I would like Galz to actually explain the reasoning behind this claim.

I didn't want to have to get to that point yet, but I, honestly, need something to ground my reads off at this point and I think this is a good place to do that.

Why and when did you claim here Galz. Have you gained anything out of it? Has town gained anything out of it?

Oh, I doubt it'll be super satisfactory for many but I'm happy to indulge.

The moment Robz flipped I wrote a somewhat frustrated post in my QT about not being happy with the interactions generated D1. Robz post about just wanting us to be able to work together as town someday made me sad because I just have so much respect for him as a player that I don't know how I'll ever find myself in the position of being able to trust him. I felt a little responsible for his death as I WAS on the morning of the lynch and posted that I wasn't going to change and I felt that was a catalyst for him getting lynched instead of Jake.

A lot of my frustration came from that, and the other part came from people not being around or not wanting to engage. So I decided pretty much then that I would mix it up coming into D2. I wanted to be big, I wanted to be controversial, and I wanted to drive discussion.

As for the claim itself. Well, scum already know I'm town. Claiming that much is literally irrelevant. What they don't know is what my role is. Obviously I'm not claiming a PR in this spot. That wouldn't be helping scum PoE where PR's are, it would be straight up telling them. So claim VT. Create a firestorm of interactions, and see what happens.

I expected to get hate for it. Going against the grain will always be controversial. But I do think that between all the interactions and the uncertainty over the claim that it will work out for town in the long run.

[Galzria]

Also, I REALLY want to be Masons with Robz someday. That would solve the whole issue between us and I think we would destroy scum.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

If you are town, who do you think responded the most scummly to your claim?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

People voting Jake: I'd be interested to hear what you think went on late day 1 once the lynch solidified as either Robz or Jake. Actually I'm kind of interested in everyone's thoughts about this.

Did you keep tabs on who answered this?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Galz: I have an answer in my mind. Curious if yours matches up.

[Galzria]

If you are town, who do you think responded the most scummly to your claim?

Well, that's interesting. I think scum probably split. It's an easy push as "bad town play" {Faust, Andrew, Jake} - but I also honestly expect some town to feel this way as well - so it's not really a scum!tell to react that way. That said, Faust by far was the scummiest of these reactions simply because I didn't at ALL feel like he was voting me because he thought I was scum. His vote felt made because he thought it would be easy.

On the other hand, scum doesn't really have the need to jump on it. I'm going to get heat regardless so they can wait and watch. In the group that acknowledged it but didn't engage it you have {TWM, Skumpy, Roadrunner, Chairs, DatSwan}. Of these you and Skumpy have my most expected scum reactions (Almost literally "We'll wait and see") - but I town read you both so... Interesting note on Roadrunner... he's the only player to give me town credit for the play which I don't at all think was warranted... So definitely stands out for that.

Lastly there's the group that I don't recall even acknowledging it {XxRaptor}. This very well could be a "don't wanna shoot myself in the foot" scum play.

So... in order, discounting all other reasons for reads:

Faust -> TWM -> Skumpy -> XxRaptor -> Roadrunner -> Chairs -> DatSwan -> Andrew -> Jake

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Huh. Interesting. I felt Andrew.

[Galzria]

Huh. Interesting. I felt Andrew.

He's scummy to me for a lot of reasons. But his reaction here isn't chief amongst them. It's a fine line to differentiate town not liking what they perceive as a bad play and scum attacking what they believe town will perceive as a bad play.

For any of the ones in that group {Andrew, Jake, Faust}, you have to ask if and why they would react that way as scum. What's their endgame and why? I'm not sold that Andrew's reaction feels faked.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Well the reason I found Andrew's scummier wasn't so much that he disagreed, but how.

His points were more about him and your prior communication earlier in the day than they were specifically about what you had done. I saw it as if he were justifying his suspicion and eventual vote on what he perceived as a contradiction in what you had said earlier.

I haven't been scum in a while, but that was one area I naturally went after, when people contradicted themselves. I could use that as a springboard into a vote because it was very natural to point that out and hard to be suspected for that as I could just point to the quotes and say, "Look. They said what they said." I am just pointing it out.

Raptor did something earlier today that caught my eye as well.

[Galzria]

Do you feel Andrew would be as vocal as he has in his arguments with me as scum? I haven't played with him much but I don't feel like he's the type to go that hard on a player he knows is town. That's what keeps catching me up every time it comes to him.

[Galzria]

 Out for 45 minutes or so. Will be back in a bit.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Do you feel Andrew would be as vocal as he has in his arguments with me as scum? I haven't played with him much but I don't feel like he's the type to go that hard on a player he knows is town. That's what keeps catching me up every time it comes to him.

Yes. He went aggressively after mcmc in M96 beautifully.

[Skumpy]

Skumpy hasn't pushed him today though at any of the key wagon points, and notably he was the person (with Gkrieg) to switch the lynch yesterday from Jake to Robz. And here he's working to take heat off Jake.

Sorry, I actually totally missed this post yesterday. To respond:

Yes, I suppose I am trying to take some heat off Jake. I think it's faust, but I also think it's one of faust and jake, so if one is lynched and they're town, I'm voting the other instantly tomorrow, if I'm alive.

I think I'm learning that it's just in my nature to fear these big wagons in general. I suspect there's scum there to make it easier, and I get suspicious of those who have virtually no attention placed on them. I definitely don't want to place closing votes at this point in the day. We still have like 70 hours to deadline, which is too early in my mind. It would've been way too early 2 days ago. It is very curious that so many people have been jumping on and off the Jake wagon, and not very many have actually stuck to him.

I mentioned this earlier, I'll say it again. It's curious that of all people to accuse of me of trying to get the heat off Jake and onto Faust, it's Galzria who should do it. You are currently voting Jake, and you have voted faust not once but twice. So what's the problem? You clearly still think faust is scum. Also remember that they voted each other day 1, and faust has a vote on jake for a while now.

You've been pushing your DatSwan or Andrew theory for a while. First off, I'm not sure why you leave RR off the list. And secondly, I want to know how you feel about my Faust-or-Jake idea.

If you are town, who do you think responded the most scummly to your claim?

On the other hand, scum doesn't really have the need to jump on it. I'm going to get heat regardless so they can wait and watch. In the group that acknowledged it but didn't engage it you have {TWM, Skumpy, Roadrunner, Chairs, DatSwan}. Of these you and Skumpy have my most expected scum reactions (Almost literally "We'll wait and see") - but I town read you both so... Interesting note on Roadrunner... he's the only player to give me town credit for the play which I don't at all think was warranted... So definitely stands out for that.

I didn't respond to that for a few reasons.

Above all else, I wasn't sure how to take it. It seems like a townie thing to do it, but I've heard tales of a crafty scum Galzria, so I could easily see it being a very cunning scum move. DatSwan's later claim felt very genuine to me, but it is possible that he's scum, saw Galzria claim, and figured that if it's townie to claim, then he could do it too. I don't think that's what happened, but I won't rule it out.

Next reason: Before I had time to post, Galzria and Faust were voting each other. Again. I didn't take sides day 1, and I didn't want to then, especially since I didn't have time to consider gkrieg's death. Robz was on team Galzria, gkrieg was on team Faust, so I don't think it's odd that I wouldn't decide since town was divided on the issue (why did autocorrect want me to write that as 'isssue'?)

And thirdly: I didn't want to think about VT claims, I wanted to focus on wagons and the night kill. That seemed more informative to me than figuring out if scum or town would claim first thing day 2, since that's still a mystery to me.

Not going to read right now into who reacted like scum and who reacted like town, because I don't think I'll get much out of it. I still don't think Andrew's scum, based on other posts I remember, but I won't rule out the possibility just yet.

[Teproc]

People voting Jake: I'd be interested to hear what you think went on late day 1 once the lynch solidified as either Robz or Jake. Actually I'm kind of interested in everyone's thoughts about this.

Did you keep tabs on who answered this?

No. Going off memoery alone, it was mostly chairs and you, then Galz later.

[Teproc]

vote: RR

[Galzria]

Do you feel Andrew would be as vocal as he has in his arguments with me as scum? I haven't played with him much but I don't feel like he's the type to go that hard on a player he knows is town. That's what keeps catching me up every time it comes to him.

Yes. He went aggressively after mcmc in M96 beautifully.

That's interesting to note then as it's not at all what I would naturally expect.

[Galzria]

Skumpy - I *think* I've made my thoughts on your questions to me clear in my posts...

But short version: Faust being scum is definitely something I would consider if Jake is town. See my "Thoughts if we lynch Jake and he flips town" post. I also think aspects of his play (see: reactions to the claim) have themselves read scummy.

As for why I don't include Roarunner in the {Andrew/DatSwan} analysis... well, because he was on wagon end of D1, yes? On Robz in fact. So for the purpose of helping us reach a lynch he was there at least. He's definitely flown crazy under radar though and absolutely could be scum.

[Galzria]

vote: RR

I could get behind this.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

vote: RR

I probably feel about RR the way you feel about Jake.

[Roadrunner7671]

vote: RR

The reasoning behind this vote is pretty convincing