Jesus christ, this wagon picked up a lot faster than I expected.
K, long post inbound. Everything I'm about to say will not involve my reading of Jake's or anyone else's character this game, solely votes. I would have to say that I do agree with Galzria - if Jake's not scum, all he's done is occasional, mostly unsupported accusations, and that's just not helping. Moving on..
Almost everyone has voted Jake at some point this game - this includes myself and the 2 dead townies. The only exceptions that I can think of are Teproc, DatSwan and Andrew, and Andrew did say at one point he's willing to vote Jake even though he voted Galzria instead. If you trust me and assume I'm town, then of the 4 unknowns who lynched Robz over Jake day 1, 3 of them are currently on Jake - that's a little concerning.
I did say I do suspect RR over Jake. What do I like about about the Jake vote is that is does give us a lot of data to work with it, regardless of alignment. Let's look ahead.
If Jake is scum: Then there is a 99% chance there has been bussing. The team could be Andrew/DatSwan/Jake, but that's a bold move to first stay away from voting and pray Jake would get lynched over Robz and even bolder to go all out on Galzria. So I don't think that's the threesome we're looking for. No, more likely, scum probably figured the lynch is going to end up being Jake one way or the other, so they probably wanted to gain as much trust as possible for lynching him.
Who would be cleared if Jake is scum? Well, I would say faust and TWM. RR's been camped on him for a while, which suggests town. Anyone else? Chairs has been joining wagons whenever they happen to pop up. XX started the day quickly on him, then backed off. Galzria could be trying to protect him, then gave up once it became clear that there's no way Jake can stay out of the spotlight. And while I don't think it's both Andrew and DatSwan if Jake is scum, it could certainly be one of them.
If he's town: So what happened yesterday? Faust started a wagon, it picked up quick. His vote was going to carry a lot of weight. TWM's been pushing hard for him to get lynched for a while. Tough to picture an all-town wagon where nobody on it was scum, and it couldn't get finished. The rest of scum could either be on Robz or AWOL, so not much to go off of, they were in no danger.
What about today? There was the quick early push of TWM, RR, Chairs, and XX, then it fell apart. Why? Scum was either off wagon and didn't want to raise suspicion with a quick lynch, or there were 1 or 2 there just to test and see if it goes through. When it didn't, they broke it apart to avoid getting accused of being too focused on town.
And as for now? It could be RR or TWM sticking to Jake like glue to get attention away from a partner. It could be Galzria looking for a desperate scapegoat to get himself off the chopping block (maybe he wanted to say 'I told you so', but once he's on the line, that's not an option). It could be Chairs wagoning. Or it could be town just unable to find anybody else to suspect.
Who would fall under suspicion? Well everyone. Scum could have been pushing for a Jake lynch, happy to follow along to go with the flow, or believing in his townliness so that when he eventually got lynched, they could say 'It wasn't me!' The nice thing for scum if Jake flips town is it takes away all of the suspicious activity from day 1 - it could've been Robz or Jake dead, so they weren't fighting for who it should be and could take their sweet time.
I'm not voting Jake yet - way too much time in the day still - but I can if the time comes. Let's see what plays out. There's more to be learned if he's revealed as scum today than if he's town. If he's scum, it narrows down the search pool considerably. If he's town, my money's on faust, but it's very possible I'm wrong.
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Topic: M105: Time Management Mafia (Game over!) (Read 148029 times)