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[Dylan32]

I'm curious who else each of you think would have been a more likely nk?  vote: sudgy, and now that my obvious preference is known, but if SOMEHOW sudgy is town, it is probably one of O or RR, with O more likely than RR by a decent amount.

PPE 3

Either Galz's target is IC, or Galz himself is scum (which would also mean his named target is town).

[Dylan32]

Oh yeah, it should have been Galz... duh.

[Dylan32]

The good thing about it being faust is that we don't have to worry about the lingering suspicion that he and Ash were faking the 1v1 against each other.

[O]

Everything I just said was 70% false scum is with decently high probability a strongman, making Galzria's role likely irrelevant.

Still makes no sense to shoot Faust over Awaclus/Galzria tho..

[Galzria]

Sorry, at work, had to teach some classes.

I jailed Sudgy last night after faust's suggestion yesterday that I jail my greatest scum read instead of Awaclus. Looking at the wagon that was on Faust combined with my already town read on him combined with his push of LaLight combined with the fact that if there's a Strongman or RB then he was an IC - all left me 99% certain he was town.

I don't think it's relevant though because I believe that my not dying confirms RoleBlocker/Strongman (or really risky WIFOM which makes no sense to me)

[Robz888]

Vote Count 7.2

sudgy (1): Dylan32

Not Voting (6): Galzria, RoadRunner7671, O, SpaceAnemone, sudgy, Awaclus

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Day 7 ends Monday, July 3, At 2:00 PM Forum Time.

[sudgy]

I don't think it's relevant though because I believe that my not dying confirms RoleBlocker/Strongman (or really risky WIFOM which makes no sense to me)

How does that work?


In case any of you missed it in the V/LA thread, I'll only be able to be here once a day.  I did manage to get the whole thread downloaded so I can reread at other times.  I'll try to reread everybody before the day is over.

[Dylan32]

Darn it Galz... in light of sudgy being blocked (but still not IC'd obviously), unvote for now

[Robz888]

Vote Count 7.3

Not Voting (7): Galzria, RoadRunner7671, O, SpaceAnemone, sudgy, Awaclus, Dylan32

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Day 7 ends Monday, July 3, At 2:00 PM Forum Time.

[Roadrunner7671]

Vote: O

[Galzria]

I don't think it's relevant though because I believe that my not dying confirms RoleBlocker/Strongman (or really risky WIFOM which makes no sense to me)

How does that work?

I'm alive, which leads to three "likely" outcomes, and in my mind one fourth, less likely one:

(1 & 2):
The remaining scum has a way to negate my PR. If they're a Strongman, they can shoot even if I jail them (and they kill my target even if we target the same person). If they're a Roleblocker they can block me (RB has higher priority than JK) and then shoot away. I'm essentially a VT to them with the added bonus that they can try and frame me as...

(3):
I'm the remaining scum. This isn't relevant to me, but it could be considered by the rest of town.

(4):
They can't negate my PR, I could potentially actually block them. There's a LOT of risk and WIFOM on their part here by choosing not to kill me. So much so that I highly doubt this is true.

I believe I'm alive because I believe one of (1 or 2) is accurate. My PR isn't a threat to scum.

[O]

Vote: O

I agree with this sentiment.

[Dylan32]

Here's my old lynch wagon post updated to include the LL wagon (and Space's SK total is fixed)

Here are the final lynch wagons from each day with known alignments colored in.

D1
JR (10): e, Dylan, gkrieg, LL, Jake, sudgy, iguana, Space, TWM, mcmc

D2
Andrew (10): LL, Eevee, O, PPS, Jake, iguana, Jimmmmm, Cuzz, Galz, mcmc

D3
e (10): RR, PPS, Galz, sudgy, TWM, Space, Jimmmmm, LL, e, mcmc (The script didn't stop at the hammer, mcmc's didn't count)

D4
ash (7): faust, LL, sudgy, Jake, Space, iguana, ash

D5
iguana (6): faust, Space, RR, Dylan, Awaclus, iguana

D6
LaLight (5): SpaceAnemone, faust, RoadRunner7671, Dylan32, O

Final wagon stats:
Lynch target = T   SK   M
    LL      -       2    1    1
    sudgy -       1    1    1
    O       -       1    0    1
    Galz   -       1    1    0
    faust  -       0    0    3
    Space -       1    1    3
    Dylan -       1    0    2
    RR     -       0    1    2

End of yesterday (color added):

Vote Count 6.4

sudgy (2): Galzria, Awaclus
LaLight (5): SpaceAnemone, faust, RoadRunner7671, Dylan32, O
faust (2): sudgy, LaLight

With 9 alive it took 5 to lynch.

[Dylan32]

Forgot to go back and color in LL and faust above D6.

Would scum really bus to go down 6 town vs 1 scum?  Because that would be what O would have done.

[Dylan32]

Another note, Awaclus hasn't been on the lynching wagon yet this entire game. That's not an alignment thing, just interesting.

The only scum Galz has helped lynch was the SK.  Anyone (other than Galz) know their tendencies regarding busing?

Space has been on all 4 scum lynches. They're conf!town as far as I'm concerned.

RR looks pretty townie based on where he's ended up; he was on 2 out of 3 mafia + the SK wagons, and not a single town wagon.

O was only on scum yesterday.

Everyone other than RR and Awaclus ended up on a mislynch exactly one of D1 or D2.

If it looks like a duck, and votes like a duck, it must be a vote: galz

[Awaclus]

Vote: O

[SpaceAnemone]

My gut is saying Dylan here, but I need time to back that up with evidence since he looks generally townie most of the time. I should be able to have an hour or so uninterrupted late tonight my time (like 6pm-ish forum time) to see whether my head and gut are going to have a big disagreement on it...

I know we're moving slowly at this point anyway, and a scum quickhammer on a town wagon while I'm gone is unlikely in our situation, but I thought I'd give you a heads-up anyway :-P

[Galzria]

Another note, Awaclus hasn't been on the lynching wagon yet this entire game. That's not an alignment thing, just interesting.

The only scum Galz has helped lynch was the SK.  Anyone (other than Galz) know their tendencies regarding busing?

Space has been on all 4 scum lynches. They're conf!town as far as I'm concerned.

RR looks pretty townie based on where he's ended up; he was on 2 out of 3 mafia + the SK wagons, and not a single town wagon.

O was only on scum yesterday.

Everyone other than RR and Awaclus ended up on a mislynch exactly one of D1 or D2.

If it looks like a duck, and votes like a duck, it must be a vote: galz

Quack Quack.

That's headline analysis without reading the story.

LaLight is the only Mafia I genuinely didn't want lynched. Both O and I were actively engaged and waiting to hammer Ashersky so that we could get the most out of the day, and with Iguana I went to place the L-1 vote (on him and not Space mind you, when they were both L-2) but PPE'd to avoid a quickhammer as Awaclus voted while I was typing. I then posted an intent to hammer so that people could wrap up.

So yeah, I wasn't "on" any of their lynch wagons. I know Ashersky tracks stats for that sort of stuff around here, but I honestly don't care. I contributed to each getting lynched, and that's enough to make me happy.

[O]

I'm fine dying here because it prevents Awaclus's substandard play from losing us the game at Lylo by hammering out of pure salt. And it truly is substandard play, even for the "I play by metagaming for most long term wins across games" philosophy. It only works in the slightest because the prominent f.ds mafia players apparently wish to allow it to work. /rant.

Not convinced me hammering LaLight as opposed to just not being there is the towniest looking thing, but it'd be really pretty desperate for me to do as scum. I guess under the assumption that the scum pair was O-LaLight the situation would be desperate enough for me to try it.

Either way I look forward to postgame justifications of "do literally nothing as confirmed townie" as pro-town play.

[sudgy]

Here's my thoughts on each player, now that that's actually feasible:

Galzria: Tend to believe his claim.  I understand what he's saying now about Strongman/RB, and agree that if he's town it definitely means scum has those roles.  I wouldn't lynch him today unless something comes up.
Awaclus: Another likely town (it is still possible that he's not), and I wouldn't lynch him today either.
Space: Definitely not as much town, but still pretty town.  I don't think that being on ash or iguana is really alignment indicative for anyone, however being on LaLight yesterday definitely brings townpoints.
Dylan: The mystery man.  He was on the LaLight lynch too, so there's some townpoints, but honestly all I remember about him is how I never remember anything about him.
RoadRunner: I don't know if I've ever played with him before, but he's playing exactly as I would expect.  He feels like town but I'm not sure.  He could fake his play.  He was also on the LaLight lynch, though.
O: I think O is town.  I totally believe him when he says that as scum he loves to bus.  He's been on scum here and there, but it's never hardcore bussing.

Darn it, pretty much everybody is a townread!  I'll just Vote: Dylan for now, but this isn't that strong.

[Robz888]

Vote Count 7.4

O (2): RoadRunner7671, Awaclus
Galzria (1): Dylan32
Dylan32 (1): sudgy

Not Voting (3): Galzria, O, SpaceAnemone

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Day 7 ends Monday, July 3, At 2:00 PM Forum Time.

[Awaclus]

It only works in the slightest because the prominent f.ds mafia players apparently wish to allow it to work. /rant.

They allow it to work by playing well.

Either way I look forward to postgame justifications of "do literally nothing as confirmed townie" as pro-town play.

Well, I did put in a lot of effort early on but there's a limit to how much effort I want to dedicate to this game if nobody's listening to me even when I'm confirmed town and you're confirmed scum. Perhaps it's not optimal, but it's the best I can do.

[SpaceAnemone]

Well, I did put in a lot of effort early on but there's a limit to how much effort I want to dedicate to this game if nobody's listening to me even when I'm confirmed town and you're confirmed scum. Perhaps it's not optimal, but it's the best I can do.

How confirmed is O's scumminess to you? I'm definitely all for listening to a good bit of evidence, but I've missed anything so far that I found really compelling. I do admit to having found the early game really difficult to follow, if that's where your confirmation came!

[Awaclus]

Well, I did put in a lot of effort early on but there's a limit to how much effort I want to dedicate to this game if nobody's listening to me even when I'm confirmed town and you're confirmed scum. Perhaps it's not optimal, but it's the best I can do.

How confirmed is O's scumminess to you? I'm definitely all for listening to a good bit of evidence, but I've missed anything so far that I found really compelling. I do admit to having found the early game really difficult to follow, if that's where your confirmation came!

He said he's trying to win by being anti-town on purpose.

[SpaceAnemone]

Well, I did put in a lot of effort early on but there's a limit to how much effort I want to dedicate to this game if nobody's listening to me even when I'm confirmed town and you're confirmed scum. Perhaps it's not optimal, but it's the best I can do.

How confirmed is O's scumminess to you? I'm definitely all for listening to a good bit of evidence, but I've missed anything so far that I found really compelling. I do admit to having found the early game really difficult to follow, if that's where your confirmation came!

He said he's trying to win by being anti-town on purpose.

Where?