If we lynch a sister, then the beetle has at least a 1/3 chance of blocking the shot, and then if the kill succeeds we have pretty much a 50-50 shot.
I don't want it to be down to a 50-50 shot! I want us to kill the Moon King. I very happily put my vote on Jake, but I think it's hasty to hammer with 12 hours to find the Moon King and win the game today.
You should trust that I know what I'm doing - especially because while town!you could have reason to believe it's more likely to be chairs, it's just reads based on the same stuff I'm looking at.
How about this:
If we lynch a sister, then we have at least a 50-50 chance of winning.
We literally CANNOT lynch the moon king today by force, because scum will not vote for them. So we have at most a 50-50 chance of winning today by coinflip.
So lynching a sister is actually better than moon king - hunting. If chairs is the moon king as you claim, it's worth it to take advantage of the fact that he's voting for Jake right now, since we can't lynch chairs without the votes of Jake or Lalight, neither of which will do that.