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[Skumpy]

I think the upper half wagon standard is stupid. There, I said it.

Why? This is really like the only thing that is stronger than reads in my opinion.

Really? There were 39 submitted actions that contain vital information...I think that puzzle is a bit stronger than arbitrarily lynching from the top half.

Do you think scum actually expected that they would all just elevate and everybody would just forget they could do that? Furthermore, what does scum even gain from elevating? They get to use actions earlier in turn order...but if scum wants to use a C action or perform the night kill, then who cares where they are in turn order, they're gonna do it eventually. Sure, they could steal a key mafia-game action...but do all of them need to do that? I would be surprised if more than 1 scum intentionally went up on N1, there's just not much that needs doing that they couldn't just do later on.

I'm not going to comment too much on this new exciting gkrieg wagon. Not the worst. I'd give it a better shot at this point then I would have given to CJ yesterday. We'll see what happens. Also, pretty sure it's L-3.

[faust]

I would be surprised if more than 1 scum intentionally went up on N1

Even in this case a random player from the top half is significantly more likely to be scum than one from the bottom half.

All else aside, the chance that a random player is scum right now is 33%. Assume that one scum chose to go to the top half.

That means a top-half player has a 1/6 chance to be that player, and thus scum. If they are not that player, they have a 3/11 chance to be one of the other scums. So

P(x scum | x in top half) = 1/6 + 3/11 = 43.9 %

Whereas

P(x scum | x not in top half) = 3/11 = 27.2 %

That is a pretty big difference.

[faust]

I think that after some reevaluation the scumster list for the top half goes something like

gkrieg > theorel > silver > Haddock > Awaclus > Skumpy

[Awaclus]

Awaclus: How many Cop flips were used last night? And what was your entire action sequence?

None. I don't want to claim the entire sequence.

[silverspawn]

I would be surprised if more than 1 scum intentionally went up on N1

Even in this case a random player from the top half is significantly more likely to be scum than one from the bottom half.

All else aside, the chance that a random player is scum right now is 33%. Assume that one scum chose to go to the top half.

That means a top-half player has a 1/6 chance to be that player, and thus scum. If they are not that player, they have a 3/11 chance to be one of the other scums. So

P(x scum | x in top half) = 1/6 + 3/11 = 43.9 %

Whereas

P(x scum | x not in top half) = 3/11 = 27.2 %

That is a pretty big difference.

I doubt that's correct, but I get 39% and 25% which is close enough. In both cases the difference is larger than I had thought. I agree we definitely lynch someone from the top based on this.

[faust]

Yeah, I forgot a factor there, it should be

P(x scum | x in top half) = 1/6 + 5/6*3/11 = 39.4 %

But your P for the lower half seems a bit off... I am quite certain that my calcuations are correct now because they add back up to a 33.3% chance for a random player.

[faust]

I think it would be good to know this:

Awaclus, did you refill the central pool?

[Awaclus]

I think it would be good to know this:

Awaclus, did you refill the central pool?

Fine. Yes, I did.

[faust]

Thus it seems likely that noone used central energy action in the final phase.

I am ever more strongly wondering what on earth theorel did.

[faust]

In fact, Vote: theorel

[faust]

You may be able to appease me with a full disclosure of your night actions.

[LaLight]

Wiggling doesn’t take energy

[faust]

I know. He had 2 other actions.

[faust]

Wiggling doesn’t take energy

And what about you anyway? Quo usque tandem abutere patentia nostra?

[LaLight]

Quo usque tandem abutere patentia nostra?

"Where are you going to abuse our", that's what google says to me

[theorel]

You may be able to appease me with a full disclosure of your night actions.

Probably not, I went down and filled up central...uselessly apparently, because Awaclus makes bad decisions.

Although, I will say that I had much stronger reasoning for doing so than Awaclus.  Since I wasn't blocking Skumpy from doing the first fill...and I was going just after Awaclus' red pull and skumpy's printout in the proposed turn sequence.  Awaclus created a need for him to fill central by blocking Skumpy, and then decided to fill up the energy pool (apparently), which I don't get.

I'll also note that I mentioned on several occasions that I wasn't able to do much yesterday because my hand sucked, primarily my issue was that I had no A's.  Obviously, also why I was so cognizant that not everyone could do everything.  This is why I volunteered to wiggle the mouse, since all the really useful town actions are on A, and I assumed that town players would go do useful town things (like tracking and copping), if possible.

[LaLight]

It looks like my actions didn't do anything apparently, but I had a very poor choice of cards to play. I refilled the central pool

PPE: 1 (not only me apparently)

[faust]

It looks like my actions didn't do anything apparently, but I had a very poor choice of cards to play. I refilled the central pool

PPE: 1 (not only me apparently)

One of you is lying obviously... only one of you could have used the lift in phase 2. Unless there is like a lot of people that tried using the lift.

[faust]

Wait, LaLight, did you not claim to go bluewards...?

[faust]

uh Vote: LaLight

[faust]

I definitely can say my night was good

And was was that about then?

[LaLight]

Wait, LaLight, did you not claim to go bluewards...?

I went bluewards afterwards

[theorel]

It looks like my actions didn't do anything apparently, but I had a very poor choice of cards to play. I refilled the central pool

PPE: 1 (not only me apparently)

One of you is lying obviously... only one of you could have used the lift in phase 2. Unless there is like a lot of people that tried using the lift.

More than 1 person can use a lift in the same phase (every 4 people can use a lift).  I'm not sure why you say "unless a lot of people tried using the lift".  What does people trying to use the lift have to do with it?

There's the possibility Lalight went down, filled Central, and moved blue...but I'm not sure why that would result in the comment you quoted:

I definitely can say my night was good

I'm good with vote: Lalight

[faust]

Wait, LaLight, did you not claim to go bluewards...?

I went bluewards afterwards

Let me get this straight: your claim is:

Phase 1: lift
Phase 2: refill central
Phase 3: move to blue

That would require 2 more players that tried to use the central lift in phase 1. Come out and claim...

[faust]

It looks like my actions didn't do anything apparently, but I had a very poor choice of cards to play. I refilled the central pool

PPE: 1 (not only me apparently)

One of you is lying obviously... only one of you could have used the lift in phase 2. Unless there is like a lot of people that tried using the lift.

More than 1 person can use a lift in the same phase (every 4 people can use a lift).  I'm not sure why you say "unless a lot of people tried using the lift".  What does people trying to use the lift have to do with it?

Err... for 2 people to successfully use the same lift in the same phase, there need to be 3 more people who tried and failed to use that lift... is that not correct?