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Author Topic: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Game over! Scum won!)  (Read 158479 times)

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Witherweaver

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1425 on: April 01, 2017, 08:07:23 pm »

I mean okay, just

Quote
I'm fine with lynching schadd now and getting another night flip but only once I know there's not some terribad potential scum role that could ruin us in one more night. I feel like schadd is the goon or weaker role remaining in the scum team.

does not sound like someone considering the possibility of the game being lost on such a decision.
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Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1426 on: April 01, 2017, 08:12:15 pm »

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck i just wiped down my wireless keyboard in another room and lost a massive post
man, that sucks. feel you
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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1427 on: April 01, 2017, 08:22:36 pm »

PPS's big post of me was so spot on, it feels feels towny to me because i don't think scumPPS would want to go out of his way to make people less likely to lynch me. i'm going to be scared of playing scum against pps in the future.
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1428 on: April 01, 2017, 10:25:09 pm »

-When eevee starts townreading mcmc shortly thereafter schadd wants to lynch him.
i started to want to lynch eevee at: 125, 129-30
eevee townreads mcmc at: 217


like i at some point said, my read of eevee hinged on a faulty memory of M92. my thinking was that he was really good at talking a lot and wallposting/over-analyzing stuff, and i had no memory of him doing that at all in M92, but it turns out that was just because my attention in M92 was an elaborately woven tapestry of tunneling people, none of whomst were eevee, and when i actually went back to look at it D2 this game i found out he talked plenty like he did here in that game. i did still (obv) think he was scum yesterDay but i'm cooling on it toDay.


-He accurately reads me which many don't do. My playstyle is is purposely designed for scum to misconstrue it so no spidey tingles here.
i had also townread you at that point (◕ᴗ◕✿)


I am also certain on mcmc although i haven't tipped my hand yet. the thing about certainty is only scum can afford it.
uh.


also incidentally 1051 makes it look like you perhaps weren't certain. but scum traps i'm sure


-right around here schadd defends Robz in a very partnery way.
defending is an odd word, considering robz hadn't received much (any?) suspicion at that point. can you elaborate on how it's partnery?


-Dylan goes down in favor of known scum andrew who only me and eevee are left voting. In my opinion this is the crowning moment for eevee. He's town right here. The rest of the people alive today are on the wagoin which is a bitch for us to work out. I will have to reread the whol thing that happened while I was sleep where scum clearly derailed the andrew wagon and convinced some fools to get on dylan.
if you look back at it, you'll find that your lord and savior, mcmc, whom you were able to use to coast to a correct read on andrew, drove the wagon pretty hard (and i think you noticed this because of 1051)


Vote: Schadd

I guess we lose if it's TWM/Eevee. or TWM/PPS. But it feels like we're lynching me or schadd today, so.


l@@@@@@me


as i think i said a couple times, my townread on him predicated on the idea that he actually felt bad about not really posting and would at some point be productive, but at this point it seems he is more concerned with endorsing the idea that he indeed deserves towncred for his play thing game and isn't really interested in the whole reading-the-game-and-interacting-with-people-such-that-you-find-out-who's-scum thing. so that kinda died. if he's scum this game, i will just lynch him the next time he tries to lurk like this and if he's town this game i will just lynch him the next time he tries to lurk like this.


People who voted for Robz: Um. Has Robz not received a single vote all game? yeah, not a single vote all game. I wonder if that has ever happened before to make it to Day3 and not have a vote without being night killed or an IC or something (I don't know maybe it has and I am making a bigger deal out of this. But vote: Robz just to ruin the record.
that i can remember, gkrieg only got voted once in M86. i hesitate to say that the comparison is meaningful since we have had rather interesting wagons every day this game and robz hasn't been very active (though this may be meaningful in and of itself)


Ends up voting for        no one. Hm.
it's these sorts of strings of 7 words that make me townread you. (become pocketed please (◕ᴗ◕✿))


First thing is lots of posts. This should be fun. Although it is actually pretty easy to read given how short his posts are.
that's generally what i shoot for



I remember not loving his vote on Joseph (well frankly everyone's) but in his case I am now seeing that previously schadd gave a null read on Joseph and that he wanted to go check Joseph's scum games.
yeah, i didn't get around to doing that iirc. i tend to think that looking back at games one wasn't in doesn't give as good of a sense of the person as the things you remember to be salient from being in the game (for example: i made a case on lalight in M92 that was based on something i kinda remembered from M86, and used games i wasn't in/details i didn't really consider very important at the time to make an overexplained case on a townguy, and kinda stopped doing that when that was over. i did end up doing the same thing on robz and ended up being right but i actually just thought faust was softing a guilty on him & made a case to lampshade). and i especially think that now (for my case on andrew which i didn't get around to writing up i had looked at some of his older games, and noted, back two years ago, that as scum he tended to be less invested and more on the edge of conversation. l0l). i did intend to do it at some point with him, but i also didn't especially feel like it and instead cast a shitty pressure vote (which i probably would not have done if i had known the wagon would uh end prematurely)


says the scum team is bad. Self referencing?
nop! the one time i played scum (in a normal) we picked off a PR each night (◕ᴗ◕✿)(◕ᴗ◕✿)(◕ᴗ◕✿)(◕ᴗ◕✿)(◕ᴗ◕✿)


(the wifom is up to you to decide, dear reader)


There is a fair amount of hedgy content about Andrew. Playing a good middle ground there.
Promotes the Dylan wagon (can't remember who he was voting prior to this. Eevee maybe? And then joins at L-1, but basically admits that he doesn't have a reason to do so or not do so. This looks opportunistic.
at the time i had andrew as town and wasn't thinking about him as much as i should have (hinsight ♫), and only a few mechanical things were bugging me (hadn't claimed, arguing with townies, bussing stuff). i can see where hedgy comes from


dylan i did have a somewhat strong gut scum as well, and i would have felt even shittier about the lynch had i not, since i knew i had a bad track record with him (made a big dumb case on him in M94 that was a big part of getting mislynched without any consequence). as i sort of explained at the time, i had a bunch of townreads (including andrew and robz (◕ᴗ◕✿)(◕ᴗ◕✿)) and felt that i could do a reasonable poe by lynching among the several people i didn't have an especially solid read on (and again i did rather earnestly think he was scum but i also knew that he is one of many people that just give me false positives because i'm bad at this game (◕ᴗ◕✿)).


Starts out comparing Andrew vs mcmc to ash vs mcmc as town vs town.
yeah that also sucks in H ♫ I ♫ N ♫ D ♫ S ♫ I ♫ G ♫ H ♫ T. it wasn't that it seemed tvt to me, rather i thought andrew was town and was unsure whether mcmc's read of him was accurate


Then, like I noted before schadd says he is going to go over each person over the weekend. In the meantime, Andrew is at L-1 or L-2. schadd's first big "reread" is coincidently on PPS, who he votes putting him at 2 votes with Andrew. I know that schadd responded to this already, but I do see a narrative of schadd feeling like he had to get something going on PPS to stop the momentum on Andrew.
it's obviously a big question of wifom but at present (and kind of at the time) i don't think there was really any way andrew didn't get lynched, esp. given that ww was locked onto him. there was the question of whether i bother putting my thoughts out there but that's not really a question one should ask themself if you have the time.


i can imagine it being suspicious that i didn't do the rest of the cases until the evening but i had work that afternoon and forgot a couple things i had to do in preparation (and probably wouldn't have had time to do the rest of the cases even if i felt like it)


everyone and their pet lizard want to vote schadd.



Robz, who are you thinking is the scum?

Schadd for sure. Beyond that, I'm not sure I should say, unless you really think I should. I don't want to help scum pick night kills.
this is, like, actually bullshit. if you actually thought i was flipping scum, you would think that my flip would confirm ww town


I am curious if anyone can spell out what potential scum roles could exist in the game at this point with the known info (not treating WWs claim as a known).
TTT = Rolecop, 1-shot Ninja, Goon; Hidden Ascetic***
TT = Rolecop, 2-shot Ninja, Strongman
TTT is where ww is lying, TT is where he isn't


I'd lean strong on Robz but still have to reread TWM and WW before I'm voting anyone at all.
i appreciate that you're not even trying to figure me out at all (◕ᴗ◕✿) even though The Man Himself townread me harder than your pet squirrel
schadd and I have been way more buddy buddy than eevee and I.


PPS's big post of me was so spot on, it feels feels towny to me because i don't think scumPPS would want to go out of his way to make people less likely to lynch me. i'm going to be scared of playing scum against pps in the future.
he does have the motive to pocket you. what you're thinking is essentially what i thought with gkrieg in M86 (even though he wasn't actually trying to pocket me l0l)- note that if pps is scum, then he doesn't have any need to lynch you in particular at all






in short: unf yeah daddy keep calling me resigned scum i'm a baaaad, bad townie
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Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1429 on: April 01, 2017, 10:50:17 pm »

who do you think the scumteam is, schadd?
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1430 on: April 01, 2017, 10:56:36 pm »

atm pps/robz
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Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1431 on: April 02, 2017, 12:55:34 am »

PPS was very consistent in his resolve to lynch andrew, who was scum. that wins a lot townpoints.
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1432 on: April 02, 2017, 01:15:04 am »

he is also very consistent in his resolve to lynch me, so perhaps you can understand where i'm coming from.


i've been wrong on a significant chunk of my reads this game and should probably, like, deserve to lose, and there's nothing else really that i can do (i haven't done any forum-survivor type stuff & can't really talk myself out of a mislynch if it's day 1 and nothing interesting has happened yet, let alone if i was wrong about the three folks that got lynched). note that if i am town & pps is scum, the townpoints pps earned are enough to win him the game, and at the point where pps started being consistent on an andrew lynch, the dylan lynch had already made itself possible (mcmc preferred it at the time, 802 vs. 815) and between andrew and robz (or whomstever), someone could have pushed the lynch a lot more (though fortunately for them they didn't end up needing to)
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Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1433 on: April 02, 2017, 01:36:30 am »

Isn't it more towny to push a scum lynch even after a town option becomes available?
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1434 on: April 02, 2017, 01:39:45 am »

yeah, and (at least) two scum did that, no matter who you think the team is
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1435 on: April 02, 2017, 01:41:33 am »

like there's a reason the scum off wagon argument exists, and there's a reason that pps brought it up in his one explanation of andrew that he did and made sure to note that it's scummy if scum uses it
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1436 on: April 02, 2017, 01:46:09 am »

yeah, and (at least) two scum did that, no matter who you think the team is
*didn't do that
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Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1437 on: April 02, 2017, 01:53:03 am »

I think you are trying to obfuscate here a little bit. It's making me think you/robz is likelier and likelier the more you to try to push for PPS.
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1438 on: April 02, 2017, 01:54:58 am »

if i'm town, who should i think is scum?
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1439 on: April 02, 2017, 01:56:07 am »

should i just acquiesce to pps wanting nothing more than to lynch me?
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Eevee

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1440 on: April 02, 2017, 01:58:45 am »

i mean you shouldn't think anything, but i would expect robz.
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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1441 on: April 02, 2017, 01:59:30 am »

should i just acquiesce to pps wanting nothing more than to lynch me?
it is commendable you fight, whatever your alignment.
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1442 on: April 02, 2017, 02:00:20 am »


i mean you shouldn't think anything, but i would expect robz.
and i do think he's scum as well, and i don't expect we lynch anyone other than him if not me
should i just acquiesce to pps wanting nothing more than to lynch me?
it is commendable you fight, whatever your alignment.
arigato
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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1443 on: April 02, 2017, 02:04:29 am »

So here is the thing. We now know that mafia didn't need to bus yesterday. Since the mcmc virgin power didn't work that means mafia pretty much for certain knew they could get a nk through, right. IF WE had mislynched yesterday the game would be over. We now know mafia knew that. So given that we can ask would mafia choose to bus at that point? Cause in my estimation there were other options to potentially lynch yesterday.

Which makes me think mafia weren't the primary movers and shakers of yesterday's lynch. Cause what would have been the pint of gaining towncrec for today I felt you could have won it yesterday?
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Losses: M100, M103, M104, M109, M112

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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1444 on: April 02, 2017, 02:15:33 am »

pps would be very much suspect had he not voted andrew yesterDay, eevee perhaps as well. and suddenly the rest of the wagon is you, ww, idptg.


scum letting a scum lynch happen in mylo is intuitively somewhat infrequent but it still happens (and has in recent memory: see M95; robz, efhw). if you're at that point, letting a correct lynch slip through and then pushing a mislynch off wagon can be easier than just doing the mislynch.
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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1445 on: April 02, 2017, 10:52:37 am »

I think schadd makes valid points.

Schadd, please make a case for a scum team that does not include yourself, myself, or eevee.

That is definitely where I am stuck.
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schadd

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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1446 on: April 02, 2017, 12:34:27 pm »

so. like. robz/twm?
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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1447 on: April 02, 2017, 05:04:19 pm »

so. like. robz/twm?

If you insist, I mean, you could include WW.
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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1448 on: April 02, 2017, 05:58:09 pm »

while it's great that he is active and engaged, scumschadd would have all the reason to do that as well.
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Re: M96: Fibonacci Mafia (Day 3+1)
« Reply #1449 on: April 02, 2017, 06:04:46 pm »

he is also very consistent in his resolve to lynch me, so perhaps you can understand where i'm coming from.


i've been wrong on a significant chunk of my reads this game and should probably, like, deserve to lose, and there's nothing else really that i can do (i haven't done any forum-survivor type stuff & can't really talk myself out of a mislynch if it's day 1 and nothing interesting has happened yet, let alone if i was wrong about the three folks that got lynched). note that if i am town & pps is scum, the townpoints pps earned are enough to win him the game, and at the point where pps started being consistent on an andrew lynch, the dylan lynch had already made itself possible (mcmc preferred it at the time, 802 vs. 815) and between andrew and robz (or whomstever), someone could have pushed the lynch a lot more (though fortunately for them they didn't end up needing to)
Basically, this is why i want to lynch schadd.

or robz who made a similar post. gahhh. i just feel the "if i were you guys i'd lynch me too, i probably deserve to lose" is so so often from scum that doesn't have any other argument because they've been caught. i feel schadd is winning pps over by sheer volume and effort (understandable, given how underwhelming robz has been, but we should go for the guy who has the highest chance of being scum no matter what)
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