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[schadd]

speed things up in the event that neither of them are scum (i think that if either of them are, this game is super lost, maybe unless it's robz/twm somehow)


plus i can look towny by being super confident who the scums are and not giving any inkling as to how these thought processes come about, which is how pps has been getting a pass

[schadd]

in sum,

I'm a bad dirty townie please vote for me

[Eevee]

I don't like that. If it's Robz/TWM, that'd be teeeeerrible, and that's really a reasonable combination still.

[schadd]

if robz flipped red who would you go after?

[Eevee]

I mean, most likely you, but say you really championed Robz's lynch and TWM tried to deflect away from it to someone else and then he flipped red, maybe TMW? Things are going to happen before LYLO, and opinions might change accordingly.

[schadd]

hrm

[Eevee]

To me it's three pretty clear tiers

WW looks extremely townie, would be very surprised if he was scum (MVP chants)

PPS and TMW look solidly townie, but it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world if one of them was scum

Robz/schaddd look quite scummy, would be super shocked if there wasn't at least one scum, and both being scum would totally make sense too.


This latest from schadd looks somewhat towny to me, but I would expect both robz (who even said it earlier) and schadd as scum to expect being in trouble about their stance on Andrew, so possibly there were schemes planned in the night to distract from that.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

What I don't get is schadd's apparently huge townread on me. I mean, I do think I look townie. But I wouldn't put myself up on the same pedestal as WW. Seems like a weird thing to do both ways from schadd's point of view.

If he is town he should at least be considering me as mafia, right? If he is mafia, what value does he get out of eliminating me from his mislynch pool?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Although I guess Eevee's point about being weird and distracting might have some validity

[schadd]

it's not as much that i think you're town (though i rather do), moreso i think i will have a very hard time not getting lynched if any two of robz, eevee, pps are town


atm i am looking further unto eevee

[Eevee]

here to answer any inquiries you may have

[schadd]

oh, howdy. you prefer town, right? why's that

[schadd]

also if you're town, try to emotionally manipulate me into townreading you, but if you're scum, don't

[Eevee]

oh, howdy. you prefer town, right? why's that

i like the aspect of trying to work out if people are lying or telling the truth more than i like trying to lie myself.

[pingpongsam]

Summary analysis of Eevee (typed in the order of appearance, that is no, refining as I discover new stuff in the reading)(I read using the print feature and searching the player so no post numbers or quotes):

-D1, totally rickrolled by the ashersky gambit. Post after post wringing his hands over it. I thought the play was clear so maybe if eevee is scum that explains why they fell for it hook line and sinker N1.
-Looks pretty active D1 once he gets past ashersky. Clearly reading players and making analysis for whatever it was worth.
-He makes a comment about not having many town reads on D1 and that it is worrisome. While this exactly opposite of my experience (I start everyone as likely scum) I don't think scum wants to do this, they need to start polarizing the group and getting some potential buddies.
-When eevee starts townreading mcmc shortly thereafter schadd wants to lynch him.
-He accurately reads me which many don't do. My playstyle is is purposely designed for scum to misconstrue it so no spidey tingles here.
-Interactions with schadd post D1 hammerpalooza really make me feel like they are NOT partners.
-Very present in D1 twilight. Interactions looks entirely unscripted and very towny as he particiaptes very candidly and without careful wording.
-Did I mention he was on the Joseph wagon, well just about everyone alive today was on that wagon so I'm not seeing that helping anyone's case at all (TWM excepted).


Moving onto D2
-the early reactions surrounding the ashersky flip are somewhat telling. I think Eevee's look town and dandy.
-note here that Robz immediately positions for some lynch pool that contains known town and TWM, mcmc goes for it which is a critical point for D2
-eevee sheeps the Dylan vote with Robz and mcmc
-catches heat for being certain on mcmc, at this point in time I am also certain on mcmc although i haven't tipped my hand yet. the thing about certainty is only scum can afford it.
-Already ready to lynch andrew D2. this was sound thinking and not something scum needs to do at this stage in the game. I don't recall eevee being that kind of scum to setup the early bus to spring it two days later for the critical cred. Gotta read this as a strong town signal for fuzzy. Takes him to L-2. Wonder how the game shakes out in the alternate univers where we did the right thing here?
-Consistently uneasy on Robz and a wavering townread on schadd. this guy is super linear for the game progression so far. Not driving any wagons so if he is scum he is both the sheep and the jester which could be possible if it weren't for the high degree of consistency. The sheep can't be consistent when he is following the leader.
-right around here schadd defends Robz in a very partnery way.
-Dylan goes down in favor of known scum andrew who only me and eevee are left voting. In my opinion this is the crowning moment for eevee. He's town right here. The rest of the people alive today are on the wagoin which is a bitch for us to work out. I will have to reread the whol thing that happened while I was sleep where scum clearly derailed the andrew wagon and convinced some fools to get on dylan.


D3 dum dum dum
-playing  like a town superstar, scum read on schadd has reached epic proportions. correctly withholds votes and assigns passes based on claims. no scumminess at all here today.
-to be fair, andrew pretty well hangs himself throughout the day but eevee never lets the guy make an argument in his own favor. if eevee is scum here he is the most machiavellian bus master we have ever seen.
-correctly nails my town meta which always about living long enough to really get the feel and be the lynchpin in the late game. high five eevee, for someone who is confused by most you sure do read me right consistently.
-was voting schadd because his gut but switches to andrew because sound logic from people not me (although I'm definitely running the andrew wagon hard all day) no confirmation bias in my reading of this.

So there we have it. I feel confident Eevee is not the scumz but if he is holy hell that is one impressive performance and MVP to you. Like, really, that's impossible to play like thet you're town so let's move on.

I threw in my notices near the eevee posts of the Robz schadd interactions and reading eevee strengthened my suspicion on both of them

[schadd]

uh unrelated but there is only a .5% chance of a restless spirit existing from the given flips

[pingpongsam]

What I don't get is schadd's apparently huge townread on me. I mean, I do think I look townie. But I wouldn't put myself up on the same pedestal as WW. Seems like a weird thing to do both ways from schadd's point of view.

If he is town he should at least be considering me as mafia, right? If he is mafia, what value does he get out of eliminating me from his mislynch pool?

the buddy effect. also, he has to leave the contested people out there for others to prey on while hiding his buddy. this is no time to bus.

[pingpongsam]

To me it's three pretty clear tiers

WW looks extremely townie, would be very surprised if he was scum (MVP chants)

PPS and TMW look solidly townie, but it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world if one of them was scum

Robz/schaddd look quite scummy, would be super shocked if there wasn't at least one scum, and both being scum would totally make sense too.


This latest from schadd looks somewhat towny to me, but I would expect both robz (who even said it earlier) and schadd as scum to expect being in trouble about their stance on Andrew, so possibly there were schemes planned in the night to distract from that.

agree with everything but the last sentence. Although I put you just under WW.

[Eevee]

also if you're town, try to emotionally manipulate me into townreading you, but if you're scum, don't

i'm town i'm town! i feel i've managed to actually be helpful this game (i've had some pretty bad games recently), and i'm now hoping that will make you realize i'm town (if you are too).

[schadd]

this is good. pls to do more of them. i will look at / respond to this later (for now i must smash bros)

also if you're town, try to emotionally manipulate me into townreading you, but if you're scum, don't

i'm town i'm town! i feel i've managed to actually be helpful this game (i've had some pretty bad games recently), and i'm now hoping that will make you realize i'm town (if you are too).

not enough exclamation points

[schadd]

this is good. pls to do more of them. i will look at / respond to this later (for now i must smash bros)

intended to do an empty quote of 1389 but it was just like "nah"

[Robz888]

Vote: Schadd

I guess we lose if it's TWM/Eevee. or TWM/PPS. But it feels like we're lynching me or schadd today, so.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Vote: Schadd

I guess we lose if it's TWM/Eevee. or TWM/PPS. But it feels like we're lynching me or schadd today, so.

Is this based on anything from the game? How caught up are you (obviously you know the game state, but have you read through what got us here)? Or is this just a preserve your own skin vote?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Starting a Robz reread, mostly because he is around and might respond to some stuff:

All the people Robz voted for: mcmc, Joseph, WW, Dylan, schadd.

I think this might be the biggest thing against Robz being mafia. If he is that means he never once voted for his partner (unless he is partners with WW) or until just now if he is partners with Andrew. Robz is like a super vet. I don't see him not voting for any partners through 3 days unless it was premeditated. Which I guess is possible.

On the flip side:
People who voted for Robz: Um. Has Robz not received a single vote all game? yeah, not a single vote all game. I wonder if that has ever happened before to make it to Day3 and not have a vote without being night killed or an IC or something (I don't know maybe it has and I am making a bigger deal out of this. But vote: Robz just to ruin the record.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Day 1:
Was on the Joseph wagon. But so was nearly everyone else at this point. Not much else that is notable here I think.

Day 2:
Was one of the early proponents of lynching off wagon Day2. Obviously Andrew went that direction and turned out to be scum. But ultimately it was mcmc that kind of drove that and Robz and Andrew rode the coattails, which I think is scummier but that is partially confirmation bias at this point. And as a result ends up on the Dylan wagon very early.

Has a convenient would prefer Dylan, but would move to Andrew if needed post. Although to be fair here, the Dylan wagon was in full swing and a switch over to Andrew wasn't exactly "needed" to get a lynch through.

Day 3:
Again, is a proponent of lynching based off who was on/off wagon. This time based on who was on. Ends up voting for        no one. Hm. Maybe this is just him not being around, but I would expect him as mafia to vote for someone to at least get people thinking about voting somewhere other than Andrew. And does again have a kind of convenient "gosh I wish I read Andrew as scummy" post.

Day 4:
Didn't like his first post of the day. Buddying and appealing to emotion at the same time.

So I am pretty mixed about Robz. I don't know what to make of him not ever being voted for. If he is town, then it is just a meaningless aberration. If he is mafia, the only way I see that happening is if he specifically told his partners to not vote for him. I don't like how he tried to direct into lynching in specific baskets on Day 2 and Day 3 and was obviously on the wrong wagons and off the right wagons.

Mostly his being gone for so much just makes it hard to get a solid read on him either way as so much of what he did (or rather didn't do) seems to be influenced more by his activity availability (not a criticism, people are busy sometimes and I totally get that) than by his alignment. But it does make it difficult.

uvote until I read others