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[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.4:

LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (2): WW, LaLight
WW (2): Pacovf, SA

Not Voting (2): Jake, RR

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm not feeling incredible about either a LaLight or WW lynch. I'd rather look among SA/Jake

[Roadrunner7671]

This is not a bad argument, but Ashersky would have mentioned it somewhere if he had given townies QTs so that scum would know about it. Or Awaclus could have asked in private. Etc.

I assume that townies will get QTs, especially with Ashersky who has been around forever. In Squid Girl Mafia, for example, I was a VT and I didn't have a QT. I think this is because UoS wasn't around during the time when QTs for everyone became super popular.

Awaclus could've asked about it though, that's something I didn't consider. I'm not sure Ashersky would give him a straight answer though.

What? You assume townies will get QTs?  Why would you be making an assumption here, if you are town?

In general I assume townies get QTs, so saying what he did as scum would be risky for Awaclus if he thinks similar to me.

[Awaclus]

I actually think SA is the scummier one out of two. Also, now there can be a quickhammer, though in WW/SA situation there wasn't. Shouldn't that mean one of them is scum? Why vote for me at all?

If one of them is scum, that's 50/50. Voting for you is also 50/50. For any particular lynch to be better than another one, we need odds that are better than 50/50.

[LaLight]

I actually think SA is the scummier one out of two. Also, now there can be a quickhammer, though in WW/SA situation there wasn't. Shouldn't that mean one of them is scum? Why vote for me at all?

If one of them is scum, that's 50/50. Voting for you is also 50/50. For any particular lynch to be better than another one, we need odds that are better than 50/50.

i see what you mean. But isn't the probability more because they both weren't quickhammered? Like 50%+50%=75% for each?

[SpaceAnemone]

LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (2): WW, LaLight
WW (2): Pacovf, SA

Each of these two-person wagons is open to quick-hammering by scum on the assumption that they're currently two townies voting for a town. Thus, either it's two townies voting for a scum, or one or more scums is already on a town wagon. Possibly it's just too early in the day for scum to quickhammer, but I think it's also possible that they're trying to make themselves more secure in a win by using our uncertainty to buy towncred at this point in the game.

If it's not just some scum no-quick-hammer ruse, then each row of the vote count must contain at least one scum. The lower two rows would be satisfied by WW being scum (or by me being scum from other townies' perspectives). From the upper one, we get one of LL and Awaclus, since gkreig is IC. If WW isn't scum, there's a strong chance of both LL and Paco being scum instead.

[LaLight]

LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (2): WW, LaLight
WW (2): Pacovf, SA

Each of these two-person wagons is open to quick-hammering by scum on the assumption that they're currently two townies voting for a town. Thus, either it's two townies voting for a scum, or one or more scums is already on a town wagon. Possibly it's just too early in the day for scum to quickhammer, but I think it's also possible that they're trying to make themselves more secure in a win by using our uncertainty to buy towncred at this point in the game.

If it's not just some scum no-quick-hammer ruse, then each row of the vote count must contain at least one scum. The lower two rows would be satisfied by WW being scum (or by me being scum from other townies' perspectives). From the upper one, we get one of LL and Awaclus, since gkreig is IC. If WW isn't scum, there's a strong chance of both LL and Paco being scum instead.

Don't forget that at some point there was a wagon on you containing IC and WW. It existed for quite a time.

[SpaceAnemone]

Don't forget that at some point there was a wagon on you containing IC and WW. It existed for quite a time.

I haven't forgotten: it's exactly why I'm currently voting WW, since the evidence kind of piled up the longer that wagon lasted.

You're currently in a similar situation with Awaclus, though -- what's your feeling on that?

[LaLight]

Don't forget that at some point there was a wagon on you containing IC and WW. It existed for quite a time.

I haven't forgotten: it's exactly why I'm currently voting WW, since the evidence kind of piled up the longer that wagon lasted.

You're currently in a similar situation with Awaclus, though -- what's your feeling on that?

Well, I am still waiting for qh given that gkrieg voted for me when everybody was sleeping and most of us are still asleep. If nothing will happen, Awaclus is conf!scum, or (!) scum decided not to quickhammer for some reason.

[Awaclus]

LaLight (2): Awaclus, gkrieg13
SA (2): WW, LaLight
WW (2): Pacovf, SA

Each of these two-person wagons is open to quick-hammering by scum on the assumption that they're currently two townies voting for a town. Thus, either it's two townies voting for a scum, or one or more scums is already on a town wagon. Possibly it's just too early in the day for scum to quickhammer, but I think it's also possible that they're trying to make themselves more secure in a win by using our uncertainty to buy towncred at this point in the game.

If it's not just some scum no-quick-hammer ruse, then each row of the vote count must contain at least one scum. The lower two rows would be satisfied by WW being scum (or by me being scum from other townies' perspectives). From the upper one, we get one of LL and Awaclus, since gkreig is IC. If WW isn't scum, there's a strong chance of both LL and Paco being scum instead.

I don't think scum can just quickhammer, because it's not a guaranteed win for them if they do, especially if they reveal themselves in the process. So they have to make it not obvious that they're quickhammering.

[Witherweaver]

Morning all.

vote: WW
The no-hammer argument grew on me with time.

Ooooh I think we have it.

[Awaclus]

In regards to the massclaim: if we massclaim, we also want to no lynch today.

[Awaclus]

Which is to say that I'm still figuring out whether or not that is better than not massclaiming at all.

[Awaclus]

With massclaim + no lynch, we get these advantages:

• The chance of Beetle catching scum by preventing the NK
• Scum has to NK a VT to prevent revealing themselves, which makes it so that for every scum, there is one townie who knows 100% that the scum is scum, and Kubo's perspective gets boosted from 3/7 to 50% in all cases

That comes at the cost of:

• Losing the 5% chance that Beetle could salvage us after a mislynch (I did the math)
• Scum might choose to reveal themselves and NK Monkey instead of a VT. Then, either we have to lynch the Moon King immediately or Beetle has to successfully prevent the NK on night 2.

[Awaclus]

I'm in favor of it. Otherwise, our odds of winning don't look great.

[LaLight]

Scum might choose to reveal themselves and NK Monkey instead of a VT. Then, either we have to lynch the Moon King immediately or Beetle has to successfully prevent the NK on night 2.[/li][/list]

This is really dangerous. Besides that it all makes sense.

[Awaclus]

Scum might choose to reveal themselves and NK Monkey instead of a VT. Then, either we have to lynch the Moon King immediately or Beetle has to successfully prevent the NK on night 2.[/li][/list]

This is really dangerous. Besides that it all makes sense.

It's also really dangerous for scum, because it gives us a crap ton of information, which can definitely be enough. It especially gives the real Beetle a lot of information that can be used for successfully preventing the NK.

[LaLight]

Scum might choose to reveal themselves and NK Monkey instead of a VT. Then, either we have to lynch the Moon King immediately or Beetle has to successfully prevent the NK on night 2.[/li][/list]

This is really dangerous. Besides that it all makes sense.

It's also really dangerous for scum, because it gives us a crap ton of information, which can definitely be enough. It especially gives the real Beetle a lot of information that can be used for successfully preventing the NK.

Won't Beetle then need to guess out of 3? It's not the best chance.

[Awaclus]

Scum might choose to reveal themselves and NK Monkey instead of a VT. Then, either we have to lynch the Moon King immediately or Beetle has to successfully prevent the NK on night 2.[/li][/list]

This is really dangerous. Besides that it all makes sense.

It's also really dangerous for scum, because it gives us a crap ton of information, which can definitely be enough. It especially gives the real Beetle a lot of information that can be used for successfully preventing the NK.

Won't Beetle then need to guess out of 3? It's not the best chance.

Yeah, but only if lynching Moon King fails. If we think of lynching Moon King as a 1 in 5 chance (in practice, it's better, because we can have reads and stuff), the total odds are 47.2%, which are pretty good by the standards of this setup.

[Awaclus]

Total odds for town victory are 47.2%, that is.

[mcmcsalot]

/tag

[SpaceAnemone]

Total odds for town victory are 47.2%, that is.

Can you sketch out how you arrived at that number, please? I want to be sure I'm following your maths, because 47.2% does seem relatively promising for this setup.

[gkrieg13]

Awake again but I don't know for how long. Might go back to sleep

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Reads so far

Town: griekg, Awaclus, Jake
Null: LL, WW
Scummy: RR, Pacovf, SA

I think I like the SA lynch most so for now Vote: SA

[Awaclus]

Total odds for town victory are 47.2%, that is.

Can you sketch out how you arrived at that number, please? I want to be sure I'm following your maths, because 47.2% does seem relatively promising for this setup.

1 - 4/5 odds of not lynching Moon king * 2/3 odds of Beetle missing = ~46.7%

I think I used 66% as a stand-in for 2/3 when I first did the math, so the result was just a little bit off.