Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Roadrunner7671]

Awaclus townslip?

[SpaceAnemone]

Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.

50%?

It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.

Isn't that also something that scum could talk about in their QT beforehand anyway, which makes it more likely to come from scum?

Possibly, though I can't imagine they had a great deal of time to talk in their QT, given that the game started only ~5 hours after PMs went out. Probably the first things they'd cover would be who they want to mislynch first. If we're lucky, that means most of their time will have been wasted strategising on ways to get you out of the picture that won't work so well now you're the IC :-)

[Roadrunner7671]

Awaclus town slipped!

[SpaceAnemone]

So Space, Jake, Awaclus?  Could be.

Or Space/WW/Pacovf?

I mean by your logic we would have just hammered Awaclus.

No? You were L-3, Paco L-2

So then what are you so worried about?

Because now you and IC vote for the same person. Either you're scum, or SA is scum or there can be a quickhammer, that's what.

Hmm.. even knowing I'm town, I don't feel terribly confident in WW's guilt just because there's no quickhammer. There's a decent chance of the NK not happening (we have an RB), and at that point, we have a strong idea of who the scums are. If we correctly lynch the Moon King, we win.

[SpaceAnemone]

Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.

50%?

It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.

Isn't that also something that scum could talk about in their QT beforehand anyway, which makes it more likely to come from scum?

Ah, re-reading the set-up, scum has daychat, so that's worth considering both from the quickhammer angle and from the point of view of them making coordinated arguments.

[SpaceAnemone]

Awaclus town slipped!

You could feel free to elaborate if you want, you know...

[Witherweaver]

Yeah, I think the 50% thing is a little bit towny at least. It's probably not super-hard for scum to work it out, but coming from Awaclus, I lean infinitesimally towards town.

50%?

It's 50/50 for any townie other than gkrieg as to the alignment of other players... and I'd imagine that's easier for a townie to spot than for a scum. It wouldn't surprise me coming from someone like Calamitas in either alignment, but from Awaclus it feels a bit townie.

Isn't that also something that scum could talk about in their QT beforehand anyway, which makes it more likely to come from scum?

Ah, re-reading the set-up, scum has daychat, so that's worth considering both from the quickhammer angle and from the point of view of them making coordinated arguments.

You're late.  LaLight already pretended to not know this.

[gkrieg13]

Well we know from the two wagons we have currently that if scum wanted to quickhammer, both of the wagons are either on scum or have scum already on them.

[SpaceAnemone]

Ah, re-reading the set-up, scum has daychat, so that's worth considering both from the quickhammer angle and from the point of view of them making coordinated arguments.

You're late.  LaLight already pretended to not know this.

Ah, he'd said that he thought scum may have daychat -- I didn't even remember he'd said it because that was in the section of posts I caught up with quickly in the pub, then I started replying to particular things now I'm home. It may have been even townier of the other players present at that moment who'd actually read the set-up and knew he was correct to have said something in-thread, so that people like gkrieg wouldn't have incorrectly assumed that a QT conversation must have taken place before the game, which was actually what his comment seemed to me to imply.

[SpaceAnemone]

Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.

okay, look. Now people will quickhammer. Roleblocker will have 3 options to choose. So we win in 33% of cases.

Not true. Even in a 3v3 we still have a chance. Anyway, I wouldn't be too concerned about quickhammers really.

How in the world we have the chance in 3v3?

I'm struggling to see this one, too.. how do we lynch scum when they make up 50% of the population?

[SpaceAnemone]

Fucking daylight savings time sucks and I'm exhausted and grumpy.

Thanks for mentioning that... I'd failed to notice earlier that I'm only 4 hours ahead of forum time, rather than my usual 5. The clocks here don't change for almost 2 more weeks.

[gkrieg13]

Look you are supposed to vote super quickly in blitz. And we aren't at true MYLO anyway.

okay, look. Now people will quickhammer. Roleblocker will have 3 options to choose. So we win in 33% of cases.

Not true. Even in a 3v3 we still have a chance. Anyway, I wouldn't be too concerned about quickhammers really.

How in the world we have the chance in 3v3?

I'm struggling to see this one, too.. how do we lynch scum when they make up 50% of the population?

Ya not sure what I was seeing there.

[gkrieg13]

Fucking daylight savings time sucks and I'm exhausted and grumpy.

Thanks for mentioning that... I'd failed to notice earlier that I'm only 4 hours ahead of forum time, rather than my usual 5. The clocks here don't change for almost 2 more weeks.

And the clocks here never change!

[pacovf]

Ok, let's just conclude the setup discussion and go back to scumhunting:

-if we mislynch, then either Beetle roleblocks the nightkill (~20% chance) or we lose.
-if we lynch correctly, then either we win outright (33%) or we have to find another scum tomorrow. If we don't, we lose, unless Beetle roleblocks the kill either night (~50%).
-scum has daychat and can coordinate quickhammers.

tl;dr let's lynch scum today please.

Flash townread

towny-ish?SA,  Awaclus
scummy: Lalight, WW
null (not enough content): RR, Jake

[Roadrunner7671]

Awaclus town slipped!

You could feel free to elaborate if you want, you know...

Interesting that you don't see it...and also scummy.

Can you really not find it?

[SpaceAnemone]

Ok, let's just conclude the setup discussion and go back to scumhunting:

-if we mislynch, then either Beetle roleblocks the nightkill (~20% chance) or we lose.
-if we lynch correctly, then either we win outright (33%) or we have to find another scum tomorrow. If we don't, we lose, unless Beetle roleblocks the kill either night (~50%).
-scum has daychat and can coordinate quickhammers.

tl;dr let's lynch scum today please.

Flash townread

towny-ish?SA,  Awaclus
scummy: Lalight, WW
null (not enough content): RR, Jake

I feel nullish on LL, but maybe scummy on RR. Jake has made one single post all game so far, so agree on lack of content there.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Yeah sorry but I think that RR may be scum here. I also dislike the idea of lynching LL because just by a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.

[SpaceAnemone]

Awaclus town slipped!

You could feel free to elaborate if you want, you know...

Interesting that you don't see it...and also scummy.

Can you really not find it?

Why on earth is it scummy not to notice a townslip? Isn't the definition of a townslip something that a town player says accidentally that lets on more than they'd intended about their towny state of mind? Isn't a fellow townie much less likely to be aware of that than scum?

I'm still not sure whether you're seeing an actual town-slip, or just cottoning onto Awaclus's general townie vibe and the deliberately-townie things he's said. It's not even beyond the realms of possibility that you're both scum and he's picking words very carefully so that you have a nice townslip-catching act to perform between you.

[SpaceAnemone]

I also dislike the idea of lynching LL because just by a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.

This is absolute rubbish as a line of reasoning! Unless Ash assigned roles using people's recent roles as some kind of input (which I assume we're pretty much guaranteed that he didn't do), then the chance of anyone here being scum is equal, regardless of how much or how little they've been scum in other games.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Ok, let's just conclude the setup discussion and go back to scumhunting:

-if we mislynch, then either Beetle roleblocks the nightkill (~20% chance) or we lose.
-if we lynch correctly, then either we win outright (33%) or we have to find another scum tomorrow. If we don't, we lose, unless Beetle roleblocks the kill either night (~50%).
-scum has daychat and can coordinate quickhammers.

tl;dr let's lynch scum today please.

Flash townread

towny-ish?SA,  Awaclus
scummy: Lalight, WW
null (not enough content): RR, Jake

I sorta agree with this but awaclus seems different this game. He's not being as annoying and he's actually explaining things (sorta). It feels like he is trying to be more towny this game which for me is a bit off so slight scum read on awaclus

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I also dislike the idea of lynching LL because just by a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.

This is absolute rubbish as a line of reasoning! Unless Ash assigned roles using people's recent roles as some kind of input (which I assume we're pretty much guaranteed that he didn't do), then the chance of anyone here being scum is equal, regardless of how much or how little they've been scum in other games.

Yeah good point but I think LL has played differently than previous games (M94) where he was scum.

[Roadrunner7671]

Yeah

First, Jake expresses agreement.

sorry

Then, he apologizes. That's called appealing to emotion.

I think

In the game where TWM, mcmc and I were scum, mcmc gave TWM some newbie scum advice: Always say 'I' and never say 'you,' because you'll sound less accusatory.

may

Not committing himself so he can still seem innocent/on the fence.

RR may be scum here.

Scum is going to agree with literally any wagon on any towny because we're at MyLo. If a newbie player is on/supporting of a wagon, it should be regarded with more suspicion than usual. And I'm not calling Jake a newbie to Mafia, I'm calling a newbie to an Ashersky setup.

I also

He says I again!

also

Expresses agreement again.

a numbers perspective he's been scum a lot recently (M94 etc) and I doubt that he can be scum so many games in a row.

This argument is invalid and I strongly suspect Jake knows that.

I doubt

He says I yet again.

(M94 etc)

Even with his invalid argument, he only gives one example of LaLight being scum 'so many games in a row.'


Conclusion: Jake is scum.

ppe LOTS

[Roadrunner7671]

Why on earth is it scummy not to notice a townslip? Isn't the definition of a townslip something that a town player says accidentally that lets on more than they'd intended about their towny state of mind? Isn't a fellow townie much less likely to be aware of that than scum?

I'm still not sure whether you're seeing an actual town-slip, or just cottoning onto Awaclus's general townie vibe and the deliberately-townie things he's said. It's not even beyond the realms of possibility that you're both scum and he's picking words very carefully so that you have a nice townslip-catching act to perform between you.

Okay, fine. Awaclus said that he didn't have a QT because he was town. As a towny, I picked up on that. I also don't have a QT. Any other towny should've picked up on this as well, and you didn't. So, either Awaclus made the very risky assumption that no townies have QTs, or Awaclus is town.

You didn't pick up on this. That's pretty scummy.

[Roadrunner7671]

Not gonna lie, my last few games where I was town have been pretty crappy. I was bad in Squid Girl and Stranger Things and I think one other that's slipping my mind, but I feel pretty good this game.

[pacovf]

Why on earth is it scummy not to notice a townslip? Isn't the definition of a townslip something that a town player says accidentally that lets on more than they'd intended about their towny state of mind? Isn't a fellow townie much less likely to be aware of that than scum?

I'm still not sure whether you're seeing an actual town-slip, or just cottoning onto Awaclus's general townie vibe and the deliberately-townie things he's said. It's not even beyond the realms of possibility that you're both scum and he's picking words very carefully so that you have a nice townslip-catching act to perform between you.

Okay, fine. Awaclus said that he didn't have a QT because he was town. As a towny, I picked up on that. I also don't have a QT. Any other towny should've picked up on this as well, and you didn't. So, either Awaclus made the very risky assumption that no townies have QTs, or Awaclus is town.

You didn't pick up on this. That's pretty scummy.

This is not a bad argument, but Ashersky would have mentioned it somewhere if he had given townies QTs so that scum would know about it. Or Awaclus could have asked in private. Etc.

I have no idea what your deal with that Jake post is though. Has anybody here played with Jake before?