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[Witherweaver]

so, here's the story you should believe: before game started I was at the computer and wrote a starting post, which should've been the first post of mine. Then the game started.. But I was on the street with the phone. I decided to wait when I'll be home to post it, but then some crazy stuff started to happen and I needed to respond from the phone.

When I got home I found out that my computer switched off without saving anything. So there's that.

That post started with "Yesterday" and ended with "All you need is Moon King". Beatles.

I am a Beetle.

So you never actually posted this?

Certainly someone doesn't make up this story, because it's just not something you think to make up.  So this post intended to have been posted, which means LaLight is town or he was planning to fake claim scum from the very beginning.

Latter is not unlikely: scum would have talked about fake claiming to out PR and get the winning mislynch in.

[LaLight]

so, here's the story you should believe: before game started I was at the computer and wrote a starting post, which should've been the first post of mine. Then the game started.. But I was on the street with the phone. I decided to wait when I'll be home to post it, but then some crazy stuff started to happen and I needed to respond from the phone.

When I got home I found out that my computer switched off without saving anything. So there's that.

That post started with "Yesterday" and ended with "All you need is Moon King". Beatles.

I am a Beetle.

So you never actually posted this?

Certainly someone doesn't make up this story, because it's just not something you think to make up.  So this post intended to have been posted, which means LaLight is town or he was planning to fake claim scum from the very beginning.

Latter is not unlikely: scum would have talked about fake claiming to out PR and get the winning mislynch in.

I was going. I had that breadcrumb in mind the first time I saw a "Beetle" word.

[Awaclus]

Certainly someone doesn't make up this story, because it's just not something you think to make up.

Isn't making the story up the exact same as ever considering to post the post in the first place? I mean, he probably didn't come up with it on the spot, but he could have made it up somewhere in between the start of the game and his claim.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Wait why me? I jump of for a hour and all of a sudden I'm scum??? I say we lynch one of the beetles.  I'm gonna break down some numbers on why. Ok if we lynch one of the bettles we have a 50% of hitting scum and a 50% chance of hitting town. If we lynch a vt we have a 40% chance of hitting scum and a 60% chance of hitting town making it more likely to hit town than the other option. Now someone may say that these are just vts at mylo but remember that the monkey has chosen to claim vt so at ethier choice we have the chance of losing a pr. This is why I like the idea of lynching one of the bettles today because the numbers favor our chance at hitting scum more with that option. Also we're at mylo so it doesn't matter what role we lynch. ( Come on let's be realistic that bettle only has a 20 or 16% chance of hitting scum tonight if we lynch wrong so therefore I say we go with the numbers) Also I think WW is the other town vt.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.7:

LaLight (2): gkrieg13, Awaclus
SA (1): Jake
WW (1): SA
Jake (1): Pacovf
RR (1): LaLight

Not Voting (2): RR, WW

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day One ends on March 15 at 12:10 p.m.

[Witherweaver]

Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?

Lynching King is instawin.  Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?

Lynching King is instawin.  Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.

Only kubo is insta lose

[Roadrunner7671]

vote: LL

[Witherweaver]

Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?

Lynching King is instawin.  Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.

Only kubo is insta lose

I don't think this is true.  Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.

[LaLight]

vote: LL

So what were you waiting for the whole time?

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?

Lynching King is instawin.  Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.

Only kubo is insta lose

I don't think this is true.  Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.

I already explained this. We're at MYLO. The chance of bettle hitting the right scum is around 16% which is very low so I don't think it matters if we lynch a bettle plus we have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch a beetle than a vt. I go in depth further in my last post.

[Witherweaver]

If we lynch scum from claimed VT, if they are King we win. If they are sister, then we will be at 5v2, say a kill goes through so 4v2.  But now either scum kill is automatic win, because both sisters is win too.  So they have to kill a VT.  So it will be {LL, RR}, {VT, VT,VT}, Gkrieg.  Mislynch out of {LL, RR} loses, mislynch out of VT loses unless RB blocks correctly.  Correct lynch wins.

If we lynch a sister today and RB chooses correctly and blocks the kill, then we would go into tomorrow at 5v2.  At which case we can lynch {LL, RR} in any order.

If we mislynch a VT today, it's a loss unless RB chooses correctly.

[Witherweaver]

Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?

Lynching King is instawin.  Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.

Only kubo is insta lose

I don't think this is true.  Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.

I already explained this. We're at MYLO. The chance of bettle hitting the right scum is around 16% which is very low so I don't think it matters if we lynch a bettle plus we have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch a beetle than a vt. I go in depth further in my last post.

It's pretty hard for Beetle to Roleblock after he has been lynched.  Lynching Beetle is instant loss.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?

Lynching King is instawin.  Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.

Only kubo is insta lose

I don't think this is true.  Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.

I already explained this. We're at MYLO. The chance of bettle hitting the right scum is around 16% which is very low so I don't think it matters if we lynch a bettle plus we have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch a beetle than a vt. I go in depth further in my last post.

It's pretty hard for Beetle to Roleblock after he has been lynched.  Lynching Beetle is instant loss.

It's almost a insta loss anyway without lynching correct today

[SpaceAnemone]

I don't think it's worth writing Jake off just because several of us support the lynch: scum could be making assenting noises just to throw us off.

I'm home from work, but I've got dinner guests right now... will be back in earnest in a few hours.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I don't think it's worth writing Jake off just because several of us support the lynch: scum could be making assenting noises just to throw us off.

I'm home from work, but I've got dinner guests right now... will be back in earnest in a few hours.

Yeah I gotta go from 4:30 to 7:30 for baseball then I'll be back on.

[LaLight]

Just tell me why everyone thinks RR is town. because you are his scum partners? Why? I really, REALLY don't get it. Help me someone.

[LaLight]

I have no 100% proof of my role. I have a very short pm from ash? I don't have a QT? These all are just words which only i know are truth. I am town, guys. Looks like RR and his partners really decided that if he counterclaims me, everyone will decide to lynch me. And that's what's happening.

[Witherweaver]

Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?

Lynching King is instawin.  Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.

Only kubo is insta lose

I don't think this is true.  Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.

I already explained this. We're at MYLO. The chance of bettle hitting the right scum is around 16% which is very low so I don't think it matters if we lynch a bettle plus we have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch a beetle than a vt. I go in depth further in my last post.

It's pretty hard for Beetle to Roleblock after he has been lynched.  Lynching Beetle is instant loss.

It's almost a insta loss anyway without lynching correct today

If only we had some way of estimating exactly what the chance was, we would not need to resort to such qualitative terms as "almost", "very low", etc.

Alas.

The conversation went like this:

Me: If we mislynch between RR and LL it is automatically a loss.  I check that I didn't miss anything with mechanics.
You: Not true
Me: Explains why
You: Says more stuff not relevant to the base statement.

[LaLight]

You need to believe me to win. I never did and never would go for 1v1, i would claim VT and just try to look townie. What is the reason for me to out the Beetle? I am the Beetle and RR and his partners knew that no one would believe me. And gkrieg already was suspecting me for something.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Lynching beetle is instalose, though, right?

Lynching King is instawin.  Lynching one of the sisters means next scum lynch is a win.

Only kubo is insta lose

I don't think this is true.  Lynch Bettle, nothing stops NK, tomorrow 3v3 cannot lynch, get endgamed.

I already explained this. We're at MYLO. The chance of bettle hitting the right scum is around 16% which is very low so I don't think it matters if we lynch a bettle plus we have better odds of hitting scum if we lynch a beetle than a vt. I go in depth further in my last post.

It's pretty hard for Beetle to Roleblock after he has been lynched.  Lynching Beetle is instant loss.

It's almost a insta loss anyway without lynching correct today

If only we had some way of estimating exactly what the chance was, we would not need to resort to such qualitative terms as "almost", "very low", etc.

Alas.

The conversation went like this:

Me: If we mislynch between RR and LL it is automatically a loss.  I check that I didn't miss anything with mechanics.
You: Not true
Me: Explains why
You: Says more stuff not relevant to the base statement.

Did you not read this where I broke it down with said hard numbers ( they are)

Wait why me? I jump of for a hour and all of a sudden I'm scum??? I say we lynch one of the beetles.  I'm gonna break down some numbers on why. Ok if we lynch one of the bettles we have a 50% of hitting scum and a 50% chance of hitting town. If we lynch a vt we have a 40% chance of hitting scum and a 60% chance of hitting town making it more likely to hit town than the other option. Now someone may say that these are just vts at mylo but remember that the monkey has chosen to claim vt so at ethier choice we have the chance of losing a pr. This is why I like the idea of lynching one of the bettles today because the numbers favor our chance at hitting scum more with that option. Also we're at mylo so it doesn't matter what role we lynch. ( Come on let's be realistic that bettle only has a 20 or 16% chance of hitting scum tonight if we lynch wrong so therefore I say we go with the numbers) Also I think WW is the other town vt.

[LaLight]

It's Awaclus/RR plot. idk who's the third, they're really distancing from this. Those two knew that's a blitz and they need a quick attack so everyone will sheep them and they'll win.

[Witherweaver]

You need to believe me to win. I never did and never would go for 1v1, i would claim VT and just try to look townie. What is the reason for me to out the Beetle? I am the Beetle and RR and his partners knew that no one would believe me. And gkrieg already was suspecting me for something.

Actually, we don't have to believe you to win.  Like I said, we can lynch away from you and still win.

The reason for you to out the Beetle is that a mislynch of the Beetle is an automatic win for scum.

[pacovf]

So what happened since RR claimed. I will ignore the RR/LL discussion, because I think lynching there is just way better tomorrow.

Awaclus: forces the massclaim. It looks like we have one scum fakeclaiming Beetle, and Monkey fakeclaiming VT. Any other scenario doesn't make sense. If Awaclus is scum, he says he expected both PRs to be fakeclaimed, and he certainly didn't expect Monkey to fakeclaim VT. Originally he was trying to get a no-lynch after the massclaim, which could have made sense, but not if his original plan didn't go through, which it couldn't have considering the way the scum has claimed. So either the idea was to get the PRs to claim, or I have no idea what his idea was (or scum messed up). Ok, yeah, seems far-fetched, unless somehow the scum team values PRs more than I think they should?

WW looks better out of the massclaim, I think.

This leaves me with SA and Jake. Neither of them have been overtly towny. On the other hand, Jake did put a third vote on SA all the way back then, which makes it unlikely that both are scum. I would normally prefer to lynch Jake, but again so does everyone else, which tends to mean mislynch. Ugh.

Man I wish we had better than gutread for this. Oh wait, wagon analysis


Awaclus: gkrieg (RVS), ww (RVS)
SA: gkrieg, WW (sits there for a while), Lalight then gkrieg leaves (sits there for a while), Jake then WW leaves
Lalight: Awaclus (RVS), pacovf (sits there for a while), then pacovf leaves and gkrieg sits there for a while
WW: pacovf, SA

The the massclaim happens and everything goes fast.

So, assuming the Quickhammer argument is any good, we would have at least one scum in:

{SA,WW}
{SA,LL}
{LL, Awaclus, pacovf}
{WW, pacovf, SA}

Though if SA is town and WW is scum, I don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous. Unless he is playing the long game in a blitz game. So if WW is scum, so is SA. If WW is town, then it's either Awaclus and Jake or Awaclus and SA. On the other hand, I doubt LL or Jake are scum with SA, since both put a third vote on SA.

So, possible scum teams:

SA, RR, Awaclus
SA, RR, WW
Awaclus, Jake, RR
Awaclus, Jake, LL

Not saying that all options are equally likely. And obviously people that aren't me can choose to consider me, but I would recommend against it.

In any case I don't like my vote on WW anymore (which somehow is on Jake according to the mod?). So yeah, vote: SA. I guess I could be convinced to do Awaclus.


PPE: lots, but it's mostly noise?

[pacovf]

@Awaclus, WW: why are you both so certain that LL is scum, rather than RR? I can see good arguments for both.

I don't think it's worth writing Jake off just because several of us support the lynch: scum could be making assenting noises just to throw us off.

I'm home from work, but I've got dinner guests right now... will be back in earnest in a few hours.

Fair. You are right that nobody is actually voting for him, in fact.