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[mcmcsalot]

I also think space makes a good point but I understand where ww is coming from thinking the question was unproductive/kinda rolefishy.

Interactions like this where you both seem to be looking for the correct answers and being cautious while still making your points clear is why I have developed strong town reads on both of you as the game has progressed.

[mcmcsalot]

I'm pretty confident there are 2 scum among robz/lalight/calamitus.

Also I feel like the sheer fact that I haven't been nightkilled even though I have recieved very little suspicion and have been pushing for the lynch of scum!eevee since day one is more evidence that robz is scum and believes he can manipulate me. Scum!robz is much more likely to have done that then a scum team of eevee/lalight/cal. In fact if they knew both me and robz were town and agreeing and I'm pushing eevee, I feel like they would totally nightkilled me.

[Witherweaver]

Last time I was scum with Robz (XMen, like my third game ever), he explicitly didn't NK you for exactly that reason.

[Witherweaver]

Oh, not XMen, it was that other one.

[Calamitas]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

@Calamitas, I'd still be interested in your thoughts/numbers for this question, if you want something to do while we wait for Eevee to come back.

I think this is either not productive, or it's rolefishing.

You don't find it suspicious that the person who was so consumed earlier in the game with theory stuff isn't immediately interested in new evidence, and didn't have an answer for my question?

The number he's given, while correct to 1 significant figure as a prior, hides a fair bit in the rounding. On known roles alone, the chance of there not actually being a tracker in the game is a bit over 0.84. I'd be shocked if town!Calamitas hadn't worked that out, so what would town!Calamitas's motive for downplaying Eevee's scumminess be?

Also, the 0.84 figure is just a prior, and doesn't take into account any of Eevee's scummy behaviour.. so Calamitas's real answer should almost certainly have been higher, even with rounding to 1sf. He sort of covers for this when saying that he wants to hear Eevee's answer, but I'm still quite suspicious anyway.

Actually I hadn't resimulated when I made that answer
But the the prior of eevee being scum (meaning not the actual prior but the probability before taking into account his scummy behaviour) is lower than the probability of having a tracker existing (because scum!eevee is significantly less likely to claim Tracker than tracker!eevee), so I'm actually sticking to something between 0.8 and 0.9 (my simulator gives me around 0.75 as chance for having a tracker).
But either way, I'm not more likely to work with inaccurate numbers as scum than as town here so this is not alignment indicative :-D

[LaLight]

what is the case on me btw? People continue saying I'm scummy, why?

[Robz888]

I'm pretty confident there are 2 scum among robz/lalight/calamitus.

Also I feel like the sheer fact that I haven't been nightkilled even though I have recieved very little suspicion and have been pushing for the lynch of scum!eevee since day one is more evidence that robz is scum and believes he can manipulate me. Scum!robz is much more likely to have done that then a scum team of eevee/lalight/cal. In fact if they knew both me and robz were town and agreeing and I'm pushing eevee, I feel like they would totally nightkilled me.

This is correct, which unfortunately means I think there's pretty much no way you're not scum.

[Robz888]

By the way I think he can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

[Robz888]

By the way I think he we can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

[Robz888]

By the way I think he we can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

[SpaceAnemone]

Actually I hadn't resimulated when I made that answer
But the the prior of eevee being scum (meaning not the actual prior but the probability before taking into account his scummy behaviour) is lower than the probability of having a tracker existing (because scum!eevee is significantly less likely to claim Tracker than tracker!eevee), so I'm actually sticking to something between 0.8 and 0.9 (my simulator gives me around 0.75 as chance for having a tracker).
But either way, I'm not more likely to work with inaccurate numbers as scum than as town here so this is not alignment indicative :-D

I think scum!Calamitas on the same team as scum!Eevee would not need to work with those numbers anyway, since scum!Calamitas would already have known that the tracker claim was a lie, so why bother with probabilities? That's the part I find to be somewhat indicative of alignment.

[mcmcsalot]

By the way I think he can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

Anyone else see what I see?

Debating making another post about my interactions with eevee but decided that would look to scummy and you should make a comment about eevee directed to everyone.

Too bad you couldn't think of a comment that added anything to the discussion and still had how you are going to make this a me vs you thing on your mind.

[Witherweaver]

By the way I think he can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

Anyone else see what I see?

Debating making another post about my interactions with eevee but decided that would look to scummy and you should make a comment about eevee directed to everyone.

Too bad you couldn't think of a comment that added anything to the discussion and still had how you are going to make this a me vs you thing on your mind.

What do you see?

[mcmcsalot]

@witherweaver

By the way I think he we can pretty much treat Eevee as obvscum.

I see that this post and slip looks like scum!robz comes into the thread and sees I have caught on to the fact he is scum, he makes a post about how he's sure I am scum and then is thinking about making another post about how my interaction with eevee make me scum but he decides that will look to scummy and changes his mind to make a post about how we all should treat eevee.

This explains why the post adds zero input to our current discussion and he slipped up on his pronoun because he changed his mind about what to say mid post.

It's not a like a huge red flag or anything I just think it actually looks pretty scummy if you think of it that way.

[Witherweaver]

I don't think it makes much sense with 'he' in there.

[Robz888]

It was just a typo.

[Robz888]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

[Robz888]

^Post directed at mcmc

[mcmcsalot]

I don't think it makes much sense with 'he' in there.

I think it's a silly argument anyway so it's not really important it's more of an interesting thought.

But for clarity, I think the "he" in robz comment refers to me. He made one post saying there is pretty much no way I am not scum and then I think went to make a post like he is also treating eevee as confirmed scum now because blah blah blah. then I think he decided it would look scummy to go that hard at me and that he should address everyone so he changed the post to we can pretty much treat eevee as scum but forgot to say we instead of he.

[mcmcsalot]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

Yep, because I am town, and I have changed my mind on many things this game. I went back and forth on jreggie for awhile, I went back and forth on you for a bit. The only thing I haven't waivered on is eevee being scum.

[Robz888]

I don't think it makes much sense with 'he' in there.

I think it's a silly argument anyway so it's not really important it's more of an interesting thought.

But for clarity, I think the "he" in robz comment refers to me. He made one post saying there is pretty much no way I am not scum and then I think went to make a post like he is also treating eevee as confirmed scum now because blah blah blah. then I think he decided it would look scummy to go that hard at me and that he should address everyone so he changed the post to we can pretty much treat eevee as scum but forgot to say we instead of he.

My brain spat out "he" instead of "we" because I had just written about you in a previous post, yes.

[Robz888]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

Yep, because I am town, and I have changed my mind on many things this game. I went back and forth on jreggie for awhile, I went back and forth on you for a bit. The only thing I haven't waivered on is eevee being scum.

Your Eevee read is what confounds me. It seems pretty obvious it was right, but you had it right so immediately... I mean, no offense, you're a decent scumhunter, but you really came right out of the gates with a perfect read? I'm so skeptical.

[mcmcsalot]

what is the case on me btw? People continue saying I'm scummy, why?

I don't think this is happening? Can you point out where this is happening? I have said quite often I think you could be scum, which is due to my town reads on WW and spaceanemone.

If you want me to make a case of why I think you should perhaps be the third lynch (after eevee/robz) it would be because the late wagon on you yesterday was started by robz and I think it's possible robz noticed the jreggie wagon had stalled out quite a bit, people were pushing eevee and I think robz knew he would lose me if it became obvious eevee was scum so he formed a wagon on you going if it did go through he would have been viewed as towny and could have gotten further down the line. Though this is just a theory, luckily we have lots of time before we have to decide if you are scum.

[mcmcsalot]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

Yep, because I am town, and I have changed my mind on many things this game. I went back and forth on jreggie for awhile, I went back and forth on you for a bit. The only thing I haven't waivered on is eevee being scum.

Your Eevee read is what confounds me. It seems pretty obvious it was right, but you had it right so immediately... I mean, no offense, you're a decent scumhunter, but you really came right out of the gates with a perfect read? I'm so skeptical.

So how come you only have a scum read on me now. You have considered me extremely and agreed vaguely with me eevee read most of the game, you have just always been pitching "better" lynches but never really disagreeing with me. The only time you were suspicious of me was when I became suspicious of you but you immediately followed up with a statement saying that that was a silly thought and you should bury it. And now, once I am practically confirmed as being right you flip to thinking I am definitely scum.

This is mainly a post for the other townies since we all have a better understanding of our own interactions with people and why I really feel like robz is scum.

[Robz888]

I mean, of course you would think this, everything that happens just further confirms what you already thought, is how this game seems to be going for you. Which is pretty townie, actually. Gah.

Yep, because I am town, and I have changed my mind on many things this game. I went back and forth on jreggie for awhile, I went back and forth on you for a bit. The only thing I haven't waivered on is eevee being scum.

Your Eevee read is what confounds me. It seems pretty obvious it was right, but you had it right so immediately... I mean, no offense, you're a decent scumhunter, but you really came right out of the gates with a perfect read? I'm so skeptical.

So how come you only have a scum read on me now. You have considered me extremely and agreed vaguely with me eevee read most of the game, you have just always been pitching "better" lynches but never really disagreeing with me. The only time you were suspicious of me was when I became suspicious of you but you immediately followed up with a statement saying that that was a silly thought and you should bury it. And now, once I am practically confirmed as being right you flip to thinking I am definitely scum.

This is mainly a post for the other townies since we all have a better understanding of our own interactions with people and why I really feel like robz is scum.

What's changed is that we pretty much know Eevee is scum. You wrongly tunneling town Eevee all game? Sure, town mcmc would do that. You calling Eevee correctly right off the bat and barely wavering (while also supporting mislynches and not actually getting Eevee lynched)? That seems scummier.

Also there are just very few people left now, 50% of everyone is scum.

Also also... I don't know, maybe you're not scum!