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Author Topic: M90: Literature Mafia (Scum wins!)  (Read 157552 times)

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Witherweaver

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1475 on: January 07, 2017, 12:40:33 pm »

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

Why?

You know Eevee slip was real, you're going to vote him.  Wagon was me, you, Robz, LaLight.  Lalight flipped town, Robz claiming Vig.    Unless he gets counterclaimed.

Also if it wasn't you it would be Space and Calamitas..  Space has seemed pretty townie.

This post is raising some alarm bells for me, but I'm going to wait a little bit to say why.

I guess alarm bells aren't red flags.  You never explained this.
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1476 on: January 07, 2017, 12:48:00 pm »

Then McMc is almost surely scum.

Why?

You know Eevee slip was real, you're going to vote him.  Wagon was me, you, Robz, LaLight.  Lalight flipped town, Robz claiming Vig.    Unless he gets counterclaimed.

Also if it wasn't you it would be Space and Calamitas..  Space has seemed pretty townie.

This post is raising some alarm bells for me, but I'm going to wait a little bit to say why.

I guess alarm bells aren't red flags.  You never explained this.

Emphasis added. It read to me at the time like you were hinting at your scum buddy Space to counterclaim.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1477 on: January 07, 2017, 12:57:40 pm »

Oh... my point there was that if you're not counterclaimed, then McMc is the only one left on the wagon, and I doubted that no scum would vote for Eevee.

But now Space actually did counterclaim you, and I'm at the bottom of your scum list?
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1478 on: January 07, 2017, 01:17:39 pm »

Oh... my point there was that if you're not counterclaimed, then McMc is the only one left on the wagon, and I doubted that no scum would vote for Eevee.

But now Space actually did counterclaim you, and I'm at the bottom of your scum list?

Again, I think the Eevee wagon analysis is so far beyond the point and it's weird you keep bringing it up.

And you're the one trying to force me to have a scum list, I'm saying I'm really unsure.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1479 on: January 07, 2017, 02:13:03 pm »

Space, Robz:

Who is the last scum, from most to least likely?

I was comfortably sure it was mcmc coming into today. I was already convinced on Robz, since I spent the night doing re-reads and trying to be sure about my actions for vigging, and he's the person I was happy to shoot at in the night.

Right now, given how Calamitas has been conceding points to Robz on a few things, maybe I'm 65% mcmc, 30% Calamitas and 5% you. I mean, I'm really quite sure you're the obv!town of the bunch (besides teamlyle) at this point, so probably the game is already lost if you're the last scum.

Another interesting thing: Robz claimed to have shot at mcmc last night, which must mean he's pretty darn sure mcmc is scum, since otherwise it was perfectly sensible not to shoot in the night at all. Is he now happy to see mcmc lynched? He had a very convenient partial come-down from the mcmc-is-scum position at #1295 with "your reaction my claim gives me pause" [sic] makes me suspect that this is his very forced way of making an excuse for now not wanting to follow through and lynch his buddy.

Ah.. the forum is so super-slow that it times out and looks like it's down every other time I load a page right now :-(
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Robz888

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1480 on: January 07, 2017, 02:23:47 pm »

Another interesting thing: Robz claimed to have shot at mcmc last night, which must mean he's pretty darn sure mcmc is scum, since otherwise it was perfectly sensible not to shoot in the night at all. Is he now happy to see mcmc lynched? He had a very convenient partial come-down from the mcmc-is-scum position at #1295 with "your reaction my claim gives me pause" [sic] makes me suspect that this is his very forced way of making an excuse for now not wanting to follow through and lynch his buddy.

Ah.. the forum is so super-slow that it times out and looks like it's down every other time I load a page right now :-(

I was pretty darn sure when I did it, and now I'm not. Opinions change rapidly in the endgame, deal with it. It's scum who obsesses over the neatness of opinions.
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teamlyle

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1481 on: January 07, 2017, 05:29:05 pm »

Vote: SpaceAnemone
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1482 on: January 07, 2017, 05:30:11 pm »

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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1483 on: January 07, 2017, 05:30:56 pm »

Vote: SpaceAnemone
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1484 on: January 07, 2017, 05:31:10 pm »

Vote: SpaceAnemone
In case SA isn't the scum, scum might quickhammer. There is no need for a rushed decision like that.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1485 on: January 07, 2017, 05:31:17 pm »

No, I was hoping some other claims would emerge and it would narrow it down to "this person is lying or this person is lying". I'm of a generation that generally massclaims at LYLO, I just sort of thought it was the time for that to happen.

So you're saying that if you had been a vig, you'd have been willing to entirely give up any chance of shooting again and marked yourself for the next kill on the off-chance that there was a scum who'd make things easier for you by pretending to be another PR? And you'd have done that because it was the "done thing", without having considered how awful it was in your particular position? That just doesn't seem like plausible play from a player as strong as you.

@Calamitas, WW, mcmc and teamlyle, does Robz really seem like a person who was actually thinking like a vig in that situation to you?

The problem with your argument is, why weren't you making it before?  How is it different if he's a Vig vs. if he's a VT?

If a high-level player comes out and blatantly PR-hunts for a role that only really works if I can keep it secret, you think drawing attention to myself by arguing too much against him is a viable alternative? Keeping quiet and hoping the VTs noticed something or said things to draw the attention away seemed to me to be the best course of action.

Notice how forceful Robz was about the need to claim, and the whole silly thing about getting teamlyle to vote and unvote really fast, where I was trying as gently as possible to point out that we hadn't even discussed whether it was wise to claim at all.. that's because he was scum trying to PR-hunt, and I was trying to get any other townie to cotton onto the fact it was a stupid idea.

My point is more that the Vig's existence was public knowledge.  If it was bad play for Vig!Rob to propose a massclaim, it was bad play for VT!Rob as well.

Ah, I probably interpreted your question entirely incorrectly there. I don't think there's any question of Robz being a VT in any of these considerations: he's conf!scum. But the thought process he's describing for why he thought a massclaim was a good idea entirely jars with what I actually felt as a genuine vig at the point he was suggesting claiming. And I argue that the reason for that is that Robz was a scum doing some PR-hunting, and not a townie who "just sort of thought it was time" for a massclaim to happen.

Does vig!Robz just say "I just thought it was time for a mass-claim", completely oblivious to the fact that it tells scum exactly who to RB and marks him for the next night's kill? And does he do that just on the off-chance that some scums would decide to claim a PR, when they could instead all just claim VT and benefit from him having outed himself anyway? There's no guarantee that anyone claiming a simple role (one that's compatible with what we know about the setup roll) is or isn't what they say they are, in spite of what Robz kept saying about how being a PR ICs someone.

So in answer to your question about whether it's specifically bad for vig!Robz and not VT!Robz, then no, it would have been bad for both, but it's exactly what scum!Robz needed to do in order to try to unearth the identity of the known vig.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1486 on: January 07, 2017, 05:31:19 pm »

I fucking knew it.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1487 on: January 07, 2017, 05:31:42 pm »

Damn :-(
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1488 on: January 07, 2017, 05:32:03 pm »

Fuck guys, stupdity. I had a case prepared. Damn Damn damn
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1489 on: January 07, 2017, 05:32:24 pm »

Well played, WW. You were the last person I'd have picked for Robz's partner!
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1490 on: January 07, 2017, 05:32:49 pm »

This was insanity. Just insanity.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1491 on: January 07, 2017, 05:32:59 pm »

Fuck guys, stupdity. I had a case prepared. Damn Damn damn

A case on whom, out of interest?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1492 on: January 07, 2017, 05:33:18 pm »

Fuck guys, stupdity. I had a case prepared. Damn Damn damn

A case on whom, out of interest?
On robz, I knew it :(
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1493 on: January 07, 2017, 05:33:42 pm »

This was insanity. Just insanity.

Teamlyle deciding to vote so badly, or you and me being responsible for putting him in that position in the first place?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1494 on: January 07, 2017, 05:34:25 pm »

This was insanity. Just insanity.

Teamlyle deciding to vote so badly, or you and me being responsible for putting him in that position in the first place?
The former. There was no need for a rushed decision like that.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1495 on: January 07, 2017, 05:37:20 pm »

This was insanity. Just insanity.

Teamlyle deciding to vote so badly, or you and me being responsible for putting him in that position in the first place?
The former. There was no need for a rushed decision like that.

Yeah, but Robz was doing very well at creating a sense of urgency and trying to fluster the town players. I really need to learn better arguing skills, because going one-on-one with him was not something I wanted to do!

Incidentally, what did you and mcmc think scum!me would have been thinking in trying to counter-claim vig rather than just pretended to be a VT?
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1496 on: January 07, 2017, 05:43:47 pm »

This was insanity. Just insanity.

Teamlyle deciding to vote so badly, or you and me being responsible for putting him in that position in the first place?
The former. There was no need for a rushed decision like that.

Yeah, but Robz was doing very well at creating a sense of urgency and trying to fluster the town players. I really need to learn better arguing skills, because going one-on-one with him was not something I wanted to do!

Incidentally, what did you and mcmc think scum!me would have been thinking in trying to counter-claim vig rather than just pretended to be a VT?
I didn't think that at the end but at first I thought that the winchance of scum increases that way (0.5 * 1/3 would have been towns with counterlaim and 2/3*1/2 without).
But the whole eevee thing doesn't make sense otherwise and neither does robz' vig play. He was way too shallow. I assume he has taken his D1 comment as chance to fakeclaim vig from the very beginning, e.g. his comment about "all turning out allright after all" was probably written in this narrative.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1497 on: January 07, 2017, 05:46:18 pm »

I guess there's no point in not posting.  If somehow I overlooked something we lost anyway.

1-Shot Governor should be impossible as it requires an additional VV.  Vote count and vote syntax look okay.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1498 on: January 07, 2017, 05:47:14 pm »

That was pretty unexpected and I guess just pure luck.  I was actually just playing Dominion Online and not checking forum that often.
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Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1499 on: January 07, 2017, 05:47:25 pm »

The eevee thing was a plot, wasn't it?
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