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Author Topic: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Game Over! Mafia Wins!)  (Read 128816 times)

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EFHW

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1125 on: November 26, 2016, 04:33:27 am »

I'm actually vla in Switzerland right now. Should have a chance to post in about 6 hours.
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1126 on: November 26, 2016, 09:06:56 am »

By the way if I am wrong about this please please please point out what I missed, Space. I can basically feel the Spec QT being like "WTF are you doing Robz, just lynch EFHW."

And the reason I don't just vote EFHW straight away is that I don't like the degree to which you seem so self-conscious and conversation-steery.

I've got a gig coming up in an hour or so, and then another tonight, so I'm stuck phone posting for the day.. big re-reads tomorrow.
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1127 on: November 26, 2016, 09:18:00 am »

Ok, Robz, reread from SA's reads list through RR's lynch, and the sections you mention do read well as them being Calamitas's partner.  More than once they seem to chide him for lurking, as a partner might.  And there is that leap off the Calamitas wagon. But then there are several towny posts, including their explanation for getting off the Calamitas wagon. I bolded the parts that strike me as towny.  Before you tell me those can be faked, I am aware of that.  But they do kind of add up.

OMGUS is bad, covering for it with a smiley face is worse, also directly contradicts his recent stance. And voting faust is not a good idea.

"his recent stance" -- TBH, I'm not actually the most unhappy mislynch in this game just now.

I wasn't really feeling good about the Calamitas wagon. He's young, and he's an overachiever with a perfect record, so my bet is that he's afraid of making mistakes that will blemish that (or just look retrospectively stupid) when D1 is so short on actual evidence.

I re-read faust, including all the posts he's made since my reads-list post (which is like 40, so not an insubstantial body in itself), and I do think he's come off as the scummier looking of the pair of him and EFHW. And all the game-pushing stuff is actually really easy to fake as scum. So he seemed an interesting choice to switch to at a point this evening where I could keep an eye on the game and jump off if the wagon if it ran too fast.

Of course, I'd expected scums to maybe join the wagon on faust (particularly since EFHW was pushing him earlier) rather than jump to me, but hey, this works too.

I use smilies often.. people just have to get over it.
I mean, I also don't really like the way Space-A is playing this. Far too calm for someone at L-1 and about to be lynched.

There's an argument in my head that says I'm better off getting lynched because otherwise you may waste a tracker shot on me, and it's useless.

Obviously, it's better to take out scum now if we can, but it looks like that's going to be tricky to do..
I'm not voting for myself  :P
No lynch is better for town than a VT misslynch.

No.

Want me to self-hammer to avoid a no-lynch? It seems kind of stupid, but it's trendy in some circles :-P
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1128 on: November 26, 2016, 09:19:03 am »

I did also notice that Space seems very aware of Calamitas' life.  His exam, and when he said he would be back.  The info was there for all of us to see, but they seemed really on top of it.
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1129 on: November 26, 2016, 09:23:04 am »

Townpoints to Robz for his vote for SA right after she jumped off the Calamitas wagon.
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1130 on: November 26, 2016, 09:23:42 am »

Townpoints to Robz for his vote for SA right after they jumped off the Calamitas wagon.
ftfm, sorry
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1131 on: November 27, 2016, 02:16:16 pm »

Sorry for the delay! I'll stay here thinking about stuff till I cast an actual vote now.

Firstly, I've been looking more at the early game, around the Calamitas L-1 wagon in D1.

#243: Robz votes Calamitas for lurking.
#254: I join the wagon after my first reads of everyone picked him and RR up as the only two seeming mildly scummy.
#263: EFHW, who had been voting faust, moves to Jake, putting him at L-1.
#264: faust joins the Calamitas wagon.
#271-276: Awkward exchange between faust and Calamitas.
#301: LL joins the Calamitas wagon, putting him up to L-1.

The four of us stay voting for Calamitas for 20 posts, when LL unvotes following e's observation that he's L-1'd both Jake and Calamitas at #319.

Robz makes three posts in a row at #315-317 where he could have engineered a switch away from Calamitas, but in #317 he actually says Calamitas is still reading scummy to him. I think that would be pretty heavy early bussing with little to go on if he was actually Calamitas's partner. Meanwhile, EFHW just sat on Jake's wagon for the whole of the rest of D1.

If I read with an element of confirmation bias, it wouldn't be hard to interpret Calamitas's odd conversation with faust in the middle there as him attempting to add another voice to EFHW's case against faust. But I'm trying to do an unbiased read for the moment :-P
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1132 on: November 27, 2016, 02:25:49 pm »

I did also notice that Space seems very aware of Calamitas' life.  His exam, and when he said he would be back.  The info was there for all of us to see, but they seemed really on top of it.
Why wouldn't you pay attention to the actual people we're playing with? I would try to do the same with little personal facts from anyone, I think. You give away surprisingly little, though.. not sure if that's because you're more private as an individual, or more guarded as scum. I should read more of the old games, I guess.. but I don't have time to do that right now.
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1133 on: November 27, 2016, 02:52:30 pm »

Robz, the stuff you're quoting above about the Calamitas wagon in D1 focuses only on the short second stint Calamitas had at L-1, after faust had moved away to RR, and Jake had jumped onto Calamitas instead.

The conversation running up to me jumping to faust was a bit tedious, and it didn't feel like the Calamitas wagon was exactly gaining traction, so I tried a new tactic with faust, who was already suggesting lynching me. I explained what I was up to back at #456, too. Of course, I had no idea faust was the tracker, and I didn't expect him to claim with so few votes on :-( I was online and keeping an eye on things actively, since I was home sick with tonsillitis -- there are several posts there that show I was around.

During Calamitas's first stint at L-1, neither of us moved away till LL had unvoted. You and I had both posted in that time, so we were clearly both around and able to divert our votes if we'd wanted to. If I'd had a scum-partner motivation to move my vote the second time he got to L-1, I should have done so first time his wagon reached that point, too, really, and you can see that I didn't.
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1134 on: November 27, 2016, 03:52:23 pm »

Now for D2 considerations.

The fact that I was hesitant about the EFHW lynch and let her sit at L-1 for ages is unfortunate if she is scum. However, I think it's a non-partner tell for Robz, as far as me and Calamitas being potential scumbuddies goes, since if we were the scum pair there's no reason for one of us not to have hammered EFHW. Note that while I was away at the deadline (because I'd read the "Sunday" rather than the "19th" part of gkrieg's deadline text), and I was definitely there and able to hammer up till almost #900, and EFHW had been on L-1 since #782.

It also makes Robz look townier to me, because a Robz-Calamitas scum-pair would also have been pretty happy with an EFHW mislynch, so Calamitas would presumably have hammered in that situation, even though it was Robz's wagon.


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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1135 on: November 27, 2016, 04:00:19 pm »

I think that's enough of a case now that today's re-reading can stop.

Vote: EFHW
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1136 on: November 27, 2016, 04:12:53 pm »

Townpoints to Robz for his vote for SA right after they jumped off the Calamitas wagon.
ftfm, sorry

No problem :-) I'm okay with "she" -- it's what I use IRL in the majority of circumstances, even though there are quite a few reasons it doesn't fit that well. It's people defaulting to "he" every time that really bugs me.
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1137 on: November 27, 2016, 04:24:14 pm »

You make good points, SA, but wrong conclusion!  There's no chance of town winning unless I vote: Space. If Robz is scum, this doesn't help him because he's already won.
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EFHW

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1138 on: November 27, 2016, 04:25:20 pm »

Coming home from airport right now, more later.
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1139 on: November 27, 2016, 04:45:01 pm »

Vote: EFHW
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1140 on: November 27, 2016, 05:06:37 pm »

Damn
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1141 on: November 27, 2016, 05:07:08 pm »

Can't wait to find out which of you was the scum.
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Robz888

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1142 on: November 27, 2016, 05:08:48 pm »

 8)
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1143 on: November 27, 2016, 05:57:37 pm »

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1144 on: November 27, 2016, 06:06:38 pm »

it was over. Henry and Lena had won.

EFHW has been lynched! 

The scum team of Robz888 and Calamitas has won!
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1146 on: November 27, 2016, 06:16:51 pm »

Good game, everybody! Pretty cool to go to LYLO as scum in just my second game since my return. Cool, and nerve-wracking!

Was really glad that Calamitas understood the setup well, I was totally lost on that front.
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Robz888

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1147 on: November 27, 2016, 06:20:28 pm »

Just read speccy QT, wow! None of you suspected me?
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1148 on: November 27, 2016, 06:34:34 pm »

I told you the plan would work :-)
Flawless execution though, great job robz.


@town: Reading mafia-qt is really recommendable here :P
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1149 on: November 27, 2016, 06:37:09 pm »

I told you the plan would work :-)
Flawless execution though, great job robz.


@town: Reading mafia-qt is really recommendable here :P

Yeah! I still doubted you, lol, up until this final day really got going, I thought people were going to realize, "wait, Robz is still alive, he is always scum, what are we doing" right until it became clear that EFHW and Space weren't going to do that. B
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