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[LaLight]

This "why did I trust my result" is just insane. I'm not a 100% positive SA his scum but the evidence I have is so strong that any other vote would be insensible.

So how do we calculate the odds that town!Calamitas's finding was affected by a modifier/scum action vs. being the truth?

Stop townslipping :p
I don't know. Highly probable.

[Robz888]

Vote: Calamitas

[LaLight]

@Robz.

If you're scum you win.
Argh.
Wanted to vote: Calamitas
Nowhere to run yet.

What does "nowhere to run yet" mean?

No need to run. Never mind

[Robz888]

Actually unvote

[EFHW]

Yeah, if SA was town, wouldn't they be quickhammered now?

vote: SA

[Robz888]

We need to talk this thru a bit more, LaLight. We'll lynch Calamitas, he'll flip scum, and then either you or I will die.

Don't you think we should make sure we are sure about the partner first?

[SpaceAnemone]

This "why did I trust my result" is just insane. I'm not a 100% positive SA his scum but the evidence I have is so strong that any other vote would be insensible.

So how do we calculate the odds that town!Calamitas's finding was affected by a modifier/scum action vs. being the truth?

I can do numbers later, but I have to go right now. I'll be back around 4.30pm forum time, plus or minus half an hour.

[Robz888]

I'm inclined to still say it's EFHW, but if you strongly disagree, LaLight, we should discuss that.

[LaLight]

Actually unvote

Nice one. Though if you're scum i hate you for this

Ppe efhw: no if Calamitas is scum
Ppe: Robz: yep. But its pretty obvious..

[LaLight]

I'm inclined to still say it's EFHW, but if you strongly disagree, LaLight, we should discuss that.

I agree.

Also calamitas was not qh'd by anyone so he's conf!scum

Or sa named the time to qh.

[Robz888]

I'm inclined to still say it's EFHW, but if you strongly disagree, LaLight, we should discuss that.

I agree.

Also calamitas was not qh'd by anyone so he's conf!scum

Or sa named the time to qh.

You agree its EFHW, or you agree we should discuss it?

[LaLight]

I'm inclined to still say it's EFHW, but if you strongly disagree, LaLight, we should discuss that.

I agree.

Also calamitas was not qh'd by anyone so he's conf!scum

Or sa named the time to qh.

You agree its EFHW, or you agree we should discuss it?

Both. I'm almost home, hate the phone

[Calamitas]

This "why did I trust my result" is just insane. I'm not a 100% positive SA his scum but the evidence I have is so strong that any other vote would be insensible.

So how do we calculate the odds that town!Calamitas's finding was affected by a modifier/scum action vs. being the truth?

I am positive that there are two modifiers of the {Random, Weak} variety. There are 72 possible combinations how those might be distributed among us. The only combinations that inflict my result are "I'm random" and "SA is random/weak(with 2/3 probability inflicting)". So there are 8 combinations where i'm random and there are 8 combinations where SA is random/weak. Since weak only accounts for 2/3 chance of inflicting this counts as 7. Then you have to discard the possibility that we both are affected since that case has been taken into account already before. So 14/72~1/5 of being affected by modifiers. Good enough for me here.

[EFHW]

Yeah, if SA was town, wouldn't they be quickhammered now?

vote: SA

I'm assuming the scum wincon is controlling half of town. I can't think of any way scum could get killed at night by town.

PPE: Lalight - right, I missed the Calamitas/SA possibility. 
PPE: Robz is mega buddying Lalight.

[Robz888]

Please everyone stop PPEing, just do a new post quoting what you mean, it's so confusing.

[LaLight]

Yeah, if SA was town, wouldn't they be quickhammered now?

vote: SA

I'm assuming the scum wincon is controlling half of town. I can't think of any way scum could get killed at night by town.

PPE: Lalight - right, I missed the Calamitas/SA possibility. 
PPE: Robz is mega buddying Lalight.

And I'm megabuddying him btw.
Yes, Calamitas/EFHW suits me.
Don't think we need to discuss more.
I'm already voting Calamitas.

[Robz888]

Yeah, if SA was town, wouldn't they be quickhammered now?

vote: SA

I'm assuming the scum wincon is controlling half of town. I can't think of any way scum could get killed at night by town.

PPE: Lalight - right, I missed the Calamitas/SA possibility. 
PPE: Robz is mega buddying Lalight.

LaLight is town. If he's not, GG. You have to make calls at the end, and it's call-making time. And also, you are implicitly doing the same thing, because you know LL is town too, albeit for different reasons.

[Calamitas]

You are doing a grave mistake here.

[EFHW]

This "why did I trust my result" is just insane. I'm not a 100% positive SA his scum but the evidence I have is so strong that any other vote would be insensible.

So how do we calculate the odds that town!Calamitas's finding was affected by a modifier/scum action vs. being the truth?

Stop townslipping :p
I don't know. Highly probable.

How was that a townslip?  Calamitas calculates it at 1/5.

You say Calamitas is confirmed scum because you voted him and he wasn't quick hammered. That assumes you are town.  I would like to assume that.  But why would scum!Calamitas and scum!SA try to pull this off when they could just mislynch me?  I realize you have to assume I'm town to find that reasoning persuasive, but it is a stumbling block for me.

[EFHW]

I agree with Calamitas. 

[LaLight]

This "why did I trust my result" is just insane. I'm not a 100% positive SA his scum but the evidence I have is so strong that any other vote would be insensible.

So how do we calculate the odds that town!Calamitas's finding was affected by a modifier/scum action vs. being the truth?

Stop townslipping :p
I don't know. Highly probable.

How was that a townslip?  Calamitas calculates it at 1/5.

You say Calamitas is confirmed scum because you voted him and he wasn't quick hammered. That assumes you are town.  I would like to assume that.  But why would scum!Calamitas and scum!SA try to pull this off when they could just mislynch me?  I realize you have to assume I'm town to find that reasoning persuasive, but it is a stumbling block for me.

Scum can not affect any results. They have Roleblocker/Goon or two goons.

[LaLight]

This "why did I trust my result" is just insane. I'm not a 100% positive SA his scum but the evidence I have is so strong that any other vote would be insensible.

So how do we calculate the odds that town!Calamitas's finding was affected by a modifier/scum action vs. being the truth?

Stop townslipping :p
I don't know. Highly probable.

How was that a townslip?  Calamitas calculates it at 1/5.

You say Calamitas is confirmed scum because you voted him and he wasn't quick hammered. That assumes you are town.  I would like to assume that.  But why would scum!Calamitas and scum!SA try to pull this off when they could just mislynch me?  I realize you have to assume I'm town to find that reasoning persuasive, but it is a stumbling block for me.

Why don't you assume it's Robz?

[Robz888]

I don't think Calamitas is scum because he wasn't quickhammered. Was there even opportunity for a quickhammer? He's scum because there's no realistic combination of players who could be partners that excludes him, and also, his claim makes him seem like scum (barring some complicated scenarios).

[Robz888]

In case that was confusing, Calamitas is scum, but I don't think the quickhammer argument is the greatest reason.

[LaLight]

In case that was confusing, Calamitas is scum, but I don't think the quickhammer argument is the greatest reason.

you're wrong.

Sa wasn't qh'd which means possible pairs are:

Calamitas/SA
Calamitas/EFHW
Calamitas/Robz
Calamitas/Me
SA/EFHW
SA/Robz
SA/me

Then I voted for Calamitas. He wasn't qh'd which means possible pairs are:
Calamitas/SA
Calamitas/EFHW
Calamitas/Robz
Calamitas/Me
Me/EFHW
Me/SA
Me/Robz.

The only pairs that are similar in both situations include Calamitas.
He wasn't qh'd=conf!scum.

Oh, and Also SA/Me pair can work. This is not the case though.