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Author Topic: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Game Over! Mafia Wins!)  (Read 129301 times)

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Robz888

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #850 on: November 17, 2016, 06:10:25 pm »

I have to admit, though, that I have a bad feeling about LaLight. It's based on almost nothing because LaLight's being very pro-town and moving the game along, and I feel like we would be floundering without them. But I can't help it. The best way to play a good scum game is to play the most pro-towniest town game ever, as the great Galzria used to say (seriously he was so great, read his games). LaLight is definitely fitting that model.

I read the games with Galzria, I agree with you, but I'm town here. Also I'm too sleepy, can't argue right now. Just believe me here, please.

You've been studying Galz's play??? This scares me even more, while also making me very happy.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #851 on: November 17, 2016, 07:58:35 pm »

I have to admit, though, that I have a bad feeling about LaLight. It's based on almost nothing because LaLight's being very pro-town and moving the game along, and I feel like we would be floundering without them. But I can't help it. The best way to play a good scum game is to play the most pro-towniest town game ever, as the great Galzria used to say (seriously he was so great, read his games). LaLight is definitely fitting that model.

He's put Jake, Calamitas and EFHW on L-1 in this game, each time with clearly undecided town players left who could have hammered. And I don't think bussing right now is particularly strong when there's so much interaction we can study. If he's scum, PoE says that you're his scum-buddy.
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #852 on: November 17, 2016, 08:04:26 pm »

Also, the length of time EFHW's been at L-1 makes me feel like she's more likely to be town.
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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #853 on: November 17, 2016, 08:20:16 pm »

Here's my table or pair-wise results, based on re-reads. I'm disappointed that so many pairs appear to have a medium-to-high likelihood. I also feel like I could spend hours more chewing over the various comments, but I'm afraid that's time I don't have... it's already after 1am here, and I need sleep :-(

Jake-RobzVery High
LL-RobzVery High
Calamitas-EFHWHigh
Calamitas-RobzMedium-High
LL-CalamitasMedium-High
LL-JakeMiddling
Jake-CalamitasMedium-Low
LL-EFHWLow
Jake-EFHWVery Low
Robz-EFHWNull
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #854 on: November 17, 2016, 08:38:30 pm »

I really think LL EFHW pair should be moved to high or very high
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #855 on: November 17, 2016, 09:17:40 pm »

I really think LL EFHW pair should be moved to high or very high

Why? Can you build a case? Please don't just quote a lot of posts or something... you can make a "case" post by starting a new post (using the "Reply" option at the end of the page), then opening a "quote" link (to the top-right of each individual post) in a new browser tab for every portion of text from a different post you want to quote, and then copy-pasting all the relevant quoting mark-up into your main post. It's time-consuming, but it makes your argument much more easy for everyone else to digest.
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Robz888

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #856 on: November 17, 2016, 10:28:45 pm »

Also, the length of time EFHW's been at L-1 makes me feel like she's more likely to be town.

This is exactly backwards, though. It's scum who languish at L-1, because their partners don't vote for them, and they try to subtly undermine the lynch. This should be an argument in favor of EFHW being scum.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #857 on: November 17, 2016, 10:29:31 pm »

Well I already made a case on them so I'll link it and you can look back. It is the first post on page 32 or here's the link http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=16392.775
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

2.71828.....

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #858 on: November 18, 2016, 12:08:51 am »

Long day at work again. I will have time over the weekend before deadline. Will reread efhw as a priority when I get the chance
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LaLight

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #859 on: November 18, 2016, 12:24:13 am »

I have to admit, though, that I have a bad feeling about LaLight. It's based on almost nothing because LaLight's being very pro-town and moving the game along, and I feel like we would be floundering without them. But I can't help it. The best way to play a good scum game is to play the most pro-towniest town game ever, as the great Galzria used to say (seriously he was so great, read his games). LaLight is definitely fitting that model.

I read the games with Galzria, I agree with you, but I'm town here. Also I'm too sleepy, can't argue right now. Just believe me here, please.

You've been studying Galz's play??? This scares me even more, while also making me very happy.

Not only his. I've spent some weekends rereading games. So I am quite familiar with playstyle of different vets, shall they come. That is why I tunnel EFHW actually. If Jimmmmm or Shraeye come to some game, I'll be watching them closely too. Same as I'm watching you btw.
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LaLight

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #860 on: November 18, 2016, 12:27:36 am »

I have to admit, though, that I have a bad feeling about LaLight. It's based on almost nothing because LaLight's being very pro-town and moving the game along, and I feel like we would be floundering without them. But I can't help it. The best way to play a good scum game is to play the most pro-towniest town game ever, as the great Galzria used to say (seriously he was so great, read his games). LaLight is definitely fitting that model.

I read the games with Galzria, I agree with you, but I'm town here. Also I'm too sleepy, can't argue right now. Just believe me here, please.

You've been studying Galz's play??? This scares me even more, while also making me very happy.

Though sometimes I don't think I can make the case that looks like "Robz behaved differently in M2 where he was a scum."

I deeply, deeply, deeply enjoy being the mafia.

:-P
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Losses: 11, 5, 1
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MVPs: 4
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Calamitas

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #861 on: November 18, 2016, 07:12:49 am »

After re-read I'm going for Jake. He tunneled SA throughout D1 and had him as top scum read right at the end of D1. After faust's death (which wasn't extraordinarily taking into account that he claimed tracker) he made a 180° turn and never accused him again. He barely even talked about him today. vote: Jake

Eh, that's not weird to me though. Town changes their mind, town moves past their mistakes rapidly.
I don't buy that he (who didn't change his mind at all during the day) suddenly turns 180° during the night without any additional input.
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Oh, i just don't like mafia games.

Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #862 on: November 18, 2016, 07:17:24 am »

Calm did you not read the post where I told you why I did a 180 from D-1 to a bit into D-2 but I'll repeat that in summary which was basically that SA looked way towner on D-2 than 1 and EFHW and LL looked much scummer
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

EFHW

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #863 on: November 18, 2016, 08:28:29 am »

My scumreads on Jake and Lalight are weakening. Still on the fence about Robz. Going with vote: Calamitas.
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Calamitas

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #864 on: November 18, 2016, 08:58:57 am »

Calm did you not read the post where I told you why I did a 180 from D-1 to a bit into D-2 but I'll repeat that in summary which was basically that SA looked way towner on D-2 than 1 and EFHW and LL looked much scummer
But how did you know that right at the start of d2?
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #865 on: November 18, 2016, 10:12:37 am »

Calm did you not read the post where I told you why I did a 180 from D-1 to a bit into D-2 but I'll repeat that in summary which was basically that SA looked way towner on D-2 than 1 and EFHW and LL looked much scummer
But how did you know that right at the start of d2?
It was from what i picked up at the end of D-1 and probably the first IRL day of D-2. After that is when I posted my scum views on him in the thread
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #866 on: November 18, 2016, 10:14:19 am »

btw we have 26 hours until the deadline
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

LaLight

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #867 on: November 18, 2016, 10:17:12 am »

btw we have 26 hours until the deadline

and looks like you have your first strike.
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Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
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EFHW

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #868 on: November 18, 2016, 10:31:17 am »

Every time you get the preferred pronouns wrong for someone in a post, you get 1 strike. 3 strikes and you're out.[/color][/b]

You don't need to modkill anyone on my account.  I don't take it personally - I'm usually the only she, and new players assume I'm male until they hear otherwise.  I take it like I'm "one of the guys".  I correct them, or let others do it usually now, because I want to be known and don't want them to be embarrassed later, but it's not an insult to me.

Getting used to the singular "they" is hard - I still always imagine a crowd of people when I hear someone use "they" to refer to an individual. It's disrespectful not to make an effort, but I think punishment may be going too far.  That's for Space to say, I guess, since their feeling of inclusion is what's important here.
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Calamitas

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #869 on: November 18, 2016, 10:33:27 am »

SA is my first choice so Vote: SA
This has been your last read you stated on D1, D2 you didn't mention SA for a quite long time (in comparison to before when basically every third post was about them).
I don't buy that that happened with the little input between those posts. If specific posts changed your mind, please quote them.
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Town (5/9): M85, RMM35, M87, NM9, M90RMM38, M92, M91, M102,
Scum (3/3): M84, M88, M100

MVPs (1): M84

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #870 on: November 18, 2016, 10:38:10 am »

Ok sorry EFHW
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #871 on: November 18, 2016, 10:43:33 am »

SA is my first choice so Vote: SA
This has been your last read you stated on D1, D2 you didn't mention SA for a quite long time (in comparison to before when basically every third post was about them).
I don't buy that that happened with the little input between those posts. If specific posts changed your mind, please quote them.
Ok so it was more that we lynched RR( who was my second choice) then by the time I came back into this game and reread everything SA looked much more town and EFHW looked much more scummy. Also the case on SA during D-1 was not that strong now that I reread it but it was the strongest D-1 case which i why I wanted to lynch him D-1
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #872 on: November 18, 2016, 10:48:57 am »

My scumreads on Jake and Lalight are weakening. Still on the fence about Robz. Going with vote: Calamitas.

Surely if he's scum he'd have hammered you by now, no?
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #873 on: November 18, 2016, 10:51:05 am »

Also, the length of time EFHW's been at L-1 makes me feel like she's more likely to be town.

This is exactly backwards, though. It's scum who languish at L-1, because their partners don't vote for them, and they try to subtly undermine the lynch. This should be an argument in favor of EFHW being scum.

3/5 of my lynchpool is already voting EFHW. The only person that leaves is Calamitas. I have Calamitas-EFHW as a high-likelihood pairing, but with anyone else it looks considerably more unlikely to me, so overall out of my possible scum-paring reading, the marginal probability of EFHW being scum is much lower than for other people.
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Congratulations! Your SpaceAnemone evolved into UniverseAnemone!
Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: M88: Covert Affairs Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #874 on: November 18, 2016, 10:52:43 am »

Also, the length of time EFHW's been at L-1 makes me feel like she's more likely to be town.

This is exactly backwards, though. It's scum who languish at L-1, because their partners don't vote for them, and they try to subtly undermine the lynch. This should be an argument in favor of EFHW being scum.

3/5 of my lynchpool is already voting EFHW. The only person that leaves is Calamitas. I have Calamitas-EFHW as a high-likelihood pairing, but with anyone else it looks considerably more unlikely to me, so overall out of my possible scum-paring reading, the marginal probability of EFHW being scum is much lower than for other people.
Yeah but I think the LL-EFHW pair should be very high or at least high
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Baseball For Life
Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None
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