Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[SpaceAnemone]

The silence is not comforting, given that you are indeed online.

Sorry.. my business partner is sending me FB screenshots of a talk he's preparing for possible investors tomorrow, so I'm quite distracted, but trying work things out!

Excuses, excuses! Just kidding, that obviously sounds quite serious.

Actually, the FB chat noise is driving me nuts, but I think the deluge has finally ended :-)

Huh.. famous last words. And while I have a mute button, it doesn't stop him expecting replies from me!

[SpaceAnemone]

I intend to hammer Calamitas, but first, Space, can you answer my question?

Hmm.. your question was whether I had anything to say that reassures you that Calamitas isn't fake-claiming on me to set me up as IC for the final lylo. The best I've got is the complete voting history for D2... while it's bad in that I didn't vote for EFHW (who I now think must be conf-scum-Calamitas's buddy), I don't really see any good reason why scum!Calamitas or scum!me wouldn't have hammered EFHW if we were scum together. As it is, Calamitas was resisting because she's his buddy, and I was resisting because I didn't feel she was that scummy at first, and then because I was away since I'd thought the deadline was Sunday and I had a busy weekend.

Code: [Select]

Complete D2 Voting History
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

#624
Not Voting: LaLight, Jake, Calamitas, Robz, EFHW, Space, e

#634
Robz: EFHW
Not Voting: LaLight, Jake, Calamitas, Robz, Space, e

#653
Robz: EFHW
Calamitas: Jake
Not Voting: LaLight, Calamitas, Robz, Space, e

#653
Calamitas: Jake
Jake: EFHW
Not Voting: LaLight, Calamitas, Robz, Space, e

#665
Calamitas: Jake
Jake: EFHW
EFHW: Robz
Not Voting: LaLight, Calamitas, Space, e

#668
Jake: EFHW
EFHW: Robz, Jake
Not Voting: LaLight, Calamitas, Space, e

#675
Jake: EFHW
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
Not Voting: Calamitas, Space, e

#750
Jake: EFHW, LL
EFHW: Robz, Jake
Not Voting: Calamitas, Space, e

#781
Jake: EFHW
EFHW: Robz, Jake
Not Voting: Calamitas, Space, e, LL

#782
Jake: EFHW
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
Not Voting: Calamitas, Space, e

#784
Jake: EFHW
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
LL: e
Not Voting: Calamitas, Space

#785
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
LL: e, EFHW
Not Voting: Calamitas, Space

#823
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
LL: EFHW
Not Voting: Calamitas, Space, e

#826
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
Not Voting: Calamitas, Space, e, EFHW

#833
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
Jake: e
Not Voting: Calamitas, Space, EFHW

#836
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
Jake: e, Calamitas
Not Voting: Space, EFHW

#863
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
Jake: e, Calamitas
Calamitas: EFHW
Not Voting: Space

#882
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
Jake: e, Calamitas
Robz: EFHW
Not Voting: Space

#915
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
Jake: e, Calamitas, EFHW {L-1}
Not Voting: Space

#925
EFHW: Robz, Jake, LL {L-1}
Jake: e, Calamitas
Not Voting: Space, EFHW

#958
EFHW: Jake, LL
Jake: e, Calamitas, Robz {L-1}
Not Voting: Space, EFHW

#958
EFHW: Jake
Jake: e, Calamitas, Robz, LL {lynched}
Not Voting: Space, EFHW


[EFHW]

Why would scum!Calamitas put out a fake result?

[EFHW]

His reasoning for tracking SA makes sense. I realize my agreeing with him makes him look more suspicious to you, but I don't know what else to do.

Lalight tempting quickhammers was reckless.

We're likely going to lose the game when Robz hammers, so can you hold off on that a bit, please?

[EFHW]

This "why did I trust my result" is just insane. I'm not a 100% positive SA his scum but the evidence I have is so strong that any other vote would be insensible.

So how do we calculate the odds that town!Calamitas's finding was affected by a modifier/scum action vs. being the truth?

Stop townslipping :p
I don't know. Highly probable.

How was that a townslip?  Calamitas calculates it at 1/5.

You say Calamitas is confirmed scum because you voted him and he wasn't quick hammered. That assumes you are town.  I would like to assume that.  But why would scum!Calamitas and scum!SA try to pull this off when they could just mislynch me?  I realize you have to assume I'm town to find that reasoning persuasive, but it is a stumbling block for me.

Scum can not affect any results. They have Roleblocker/Goon or two goons.

You realize they have a JOAT, right? And one of the powers is framer.

[Robz888]

Eh, I'm not going to let EFHW try to wriggle out of this. Vote: calamitas

[EFHW]

I hope I am wrong.

[LaLight]

well, I'm awake and looks like we will wait for this flip till Sunday?

[LaLight]

I can see GKrieg on forums though

[gkrieg13]

Calamitas has been lynched!  I'm not at a computer so I can't do the vote count right now so just use your imagination. They were lynched by LaLight, SA, and Robz.

They were Lena Smith, the Goon

Night 3 begins now and ends in 36 to 48 hours. Deadline for actions is 36 hours from now.

THREAD LOCKED!

[gkrieg13]

Henry had his sights set on a new target. On Auggie Anderson. And just like that, he was dead.

LaLight has died in the night. They were Auggie Anderson, the Vanilla Agent.

Day 4 begins now!

THREAD Unlocked!

[Robz888]

Welp, here we are. I'm still inclined to say the partner is EFHW, but I suppose she deserved the opportunity to make her case.

If it's Space, then Calamitas's gambit will have really paid off, and I can't shake this sinking feeling that Thad exactly what's happened, but I don't think I can let that override my multi day suspicion of EFHW.

Those are my thoughts. Really hate being in this situation with so much riding on my choice. I think I have a pretty bad LYLO record.

[SpaceAnemone]

Yeah, I agree that EFHW is the likely partner, but I'm happy to hear her case before a lynch too, since Robz-Calamitas looked like a reasonably-high-likelihood pairing for me earlier in the game. I'm also going to re-read a bunch before placing my vote.

[EFHW]

Well, I have no idea which of you it is. I have so much OMGUS because of Robz's persistent scum reading of me, but I would have expected him to leave Lalight alive since they were such close anti-EFHW buddies.

On the other hand, there is a scum case to make on Space where there really wasn't on Lalight. So Robz can seem the tortured town. 

Scum!me would have killed Robz, you can be sure of that.

This feels like scum!Robz to me.

[EFHW]

Regarding a case in my defense, the earliest argument against me was that I was a vet and therefore would have the experience to play scum undetected.  That theory does not differentiate me from Robz.

The latest argument I assume would be my defense of Calamitas, which was obviously a mistake.  I really couldn't see a scum motive for making that fake claim.  I guess they must have felt they were in a worse position than it seemed to me.

It seems like there was another theory in there somewhere - I guess my mysterious scum read on faust seemed fishy?  I really thought he might be scum, and keeping him off balance seemed like a good plan.

I'll have to look back to see if there was anything more. Feel free to refresh my memory as well.

[Robz888]

Scum!me would have killed Robz, you can be sure of that.

I don't believe that for a minute. Even aside from considerable WIFOM (if you know what scum!you would do, you could just do the opposite as scum, in order to make that argument), killing me was too great a risk. If you had killed me instead of LaLight, LL would have known that my scum read on you was genuine, since I was confirmed town. You would have gotten lynched for sure.

I have fought for your lynch all game. It was hard because you put up a great fight, as scum do, and because Calamitas protected you.

[Robz888]

And EFHW, I'm really not even interested in hearing your defense. If you are town, I'm telling you, the only way we win this is for you to convince me its Space. I'm going to be looking back to see if that's possible, and I'm really worried about the Calamitas gambit, but I need you to do that as well in case I missed something.

[EFHW]

You did say I deserved the opportunity to make my case.

If you are scum, then us lynching Space is as bad as you two lynching me.

What I need to do is convince Space I'm town.

[Robz888]

What I need to do is convince Space I'm town.

That's what scum!EFHW needs to do, sure. You sort of gave yourself away there, eh?

[EFHW]

What I need to do is convince Space I'm town.

That's what scum!EFHW needs to do, sure. You sort of gave yourself away there, eh?

No.

[SpaceAnemone]

What I need to do is convince Space I'm town.

Nope, I need earlier-game evidence on each of you being scum, really, not lots of "look how townie I am" new content now. I'm leaning towards you being scum on voting history alone. Can you show me anything that might make me think Robz is scummier?

[Robz888]

Argh. I started re-reading Space just to doublecheck, and there's actually something pretty unsettling from Day 1.

[Robz888]

So, this is mid Day 1, from Space.

Makin' reads known :-)
   
LaLight -- Grumpier than usual? Though I love his UniverseAnemone thing, and I'm totally using that as a sig once this game is over :-) Null for now.
RoadRunner -- Sparking off Jake rather too much. I'm slightly suspicious of how he's saying 4 days is a long time, when gameplay in here is practically nonexistent. Nullish-to-mild-scum.
faust -- Seems to be posting lots of game-driving stuff, actually.. more than I'd noticed till I did a specific re-read. Feeling townie for the moment.
JakeTheBaseballGod22 -- Noisy. Faust said the care-free attitude would be hard for him to fake as scum, but I'm not so sure. Would be happy to lynch if it comes down to that.
Calamitas -- Suspiciously quiet. Really sucks at pronouns. Would consider voting for him as things stand.
Robz888 -- Scary old vet, but doesn't seem scum-scary so far. Wouldn't vote.
EFHW -- Much the same as Robz, though I'm also enjoying her stringing-along of faust, so not interesting in lynching for now, in spite of the fact I appear to be RVSing her still...
SpaceAnemone -- Spaaaaaaace!
e -- Looking a bit green :-)
gkrieg -- Scummy as always!

Vote: Calamitas

Space puts a vote on Calamitas. I'm already voting Cal for lurking, and faust is voting as well. This doesn't tell us all that much.

Faust unvotes, votes, and unvotes Calamitas, and then others join the wagon and it's pretty legitimately happening that Calamitas could be the lynch. And then there's this:

Unofficial Space-Count

Jake (3): Roadrunner, EFHW, Calamitas
Calamitas (4): Robz, SpaceAnemone, LL, Jake {L-1}
RR (1): faust

Not Voting (1): e

So Calamitas is actually L-1. This is the very next post:

Bad wagon is bad.

Let's lynch SpaceAnemone or RR.

Or try something else :-)

Vote: faust

So it looks like Space, sensing the real danger Space's partner was in, tried to defuse the wagon. But this was done in an obviously scummy way, and so what actually happened is that everyone deserted the wagon and turned on Space. Shortly after this, the votes looked like this:

Vote Count 1.4

Jake (2): EFHW, Calamitas
Calamitas (1): LaLight
faust (2): SpaceAnemone, Roadrunner
SpaceAnemone (3): Robz, faust, Jake

Not Voting (1): e

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 1 ends Thursday Nov 10 at 11 am

Faust then became the leading non-Space candidate, and claimed Tracker. This caused that wagon to go away, and E put Space to L-1.

Calamitas is absent this entire time. The only thing we get from Calamitas is this:

I don't have the time to reread until deadline and no real preferences. Will vote for everyone if required when I get online again (about an hour before deadline).

That came right after the vote count. Calamitas had a great opportunity to preserve himself and join the Space wagon; he did not. To my mind, this is the exact course of action I would expect if Space was Calm's partner.

Take a look at this, please, EFHW.

[Robz888]

And now I'll have to see if the same is true for EFHW, and it actually sort of looks like it, from a cursory scanning of the vote counts.

*Screams into a pillow.*

[Robz888]

By the way if I am wrong about this please please please point out what I missed, Space. I can basically feel the Spec QT being like "WTF are you doing Robz, just lynch EFHW."