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[Piemaster]

* Note, I'm not talking specifically about Peddler, but about Peddler-like cards that give +1 Action, +1 Card, +$1 and maybe another bonus

Okay, so I got bored on the running machine in the gym today and started thinking about BM decks.  Specifically I was thinking about what BM decks should do when they hit exactly 5.  Traditional thinking seems to be that you should buy a couple of terminal bombs (like Witch, JoaT or Mounteback) or drawing cards (like Envoy or Smithy) and if there are none available or you already have too many terminals (2 seems to be the magic number) then buy silver.  Cards like Market, Treasury and Highway are thought to be too slow.

But I started wondering about this.  Let's say you are given a straight-up choice between Silver and Market.  When you draw Silver it gives a free $2, whereas Market gives you a free $1 plus a card and a Buy.  If we assume the +1 Buy is useless (to simplify things) that means to pick the Silver you have to value $1 more than a card.  Or, to put it another way, the average card in your deck must be worth less than a Copper.  This doesn't seem right to me.  The only time the average card in your deck should be worth less than a Copper in a BM deck should be turns 1-5.  And even if you face the decision on turn 1 or 2 (due to a 5/2 split) you have to assume that over the course of the game, the extra card from Market will be worth more than $1 more often than it is worth less than $1.

If we consider that the 'gravy' on the card (+1 Buy on Market, Topdeck on Treasury etc) could be useful on occasions, doesn't this mean that BM decks should be picking Peddlers over Silver?  And if this is the case then at what point do they cease to be BM decks?

Or am I missing something fundamental?

[GendoIkari]

One thing you are forgetting: terminal draw. If you have a Smithy in your deck; drawing a Peddler with it is with $0, while drawing a Silver is worth $2.

[HiveMindEmulator]

Or am I missing something fundamental?

You have to consider the chance of the card being drawn dead, in which case it provides $0. Markets are generally pretty good to add provided you don't have too much terminal draw. They add nicely to jacks, but not to envoy, for example.

[chwhite]

My rule of thumb is to take the Silver if I have more than one terminal +Card Action in my deck, occasionally if there's only one but I know I'll buy a second one soon (say, Smithy-BM on turns 3-4).  Otherwise I'd probably take the Peddler*, though of course the window before it's Duchy time might not be that large. 
 
Exception: JoaT, where the Silver flood decreases the chance of drawing dead, you're probably only drawing one card, and DoubleJack is too dreadfully boring anyway, so I'm more likely to take the Peddler*.  Second exception: Single Envoy may be enough to go for the Silver, but ugh I dislike playing Single Envoy even more. 

Granted, BM decks are not my specialty.

[DG]

Some simplistic maths will suggest that a single lab, stables, market, bazaar, peddler will be better than silver when your average terminal card value is greater than 1. That value starts at 0.7 (7 copper and 3 estates) and generally the value does stay above 1 for most of the game. These cards tend to be more vulnerable to attacks however and still depend upon the quality of the rest of the deck.

You're right about needing a better definition of your terms. As soon as you talk about witches and mountebanks in a big money deck then you're not actually talking about big money. Cursing and drawing makes quite a difference. I try to use the term pure money when I can or witch+treasure to describe variations. Big money can be used by many people to describe different things. So, 'big money' decks should generally yes buy markets (say) ahead of silver. However drawing decks with witches and smithies need to consider the times the markets are drawn into hand and unable to be played.

The simulator seems to be suggest that for drawing decks 'it depends'. If you have a deck with a couple of witches then adding treasury > markets/bazaars > labs > silver > stables, mostly for marginal benefit except the stables are very bad. Different drawing cards will give different results.

[Toskk]

* Note, I'm not talking specifically about Peddler, but about Peddler-like cards that give +1 Action, +1 Card, +$1 and maybe another bonus

Okay, so I got bored on the running machine in the gym today and started thinking about BM decks.  Specifically I was thinking about what BM decks should do when they hit exactly 5.  Traditional thinking seems to be that you should buy a couple of terminal bombs (like Witch, JoaT or Mounteback) or drawing cards (like Envoy or Smithy) and if there are none available or you already have too many terminals (2 seems to be the magic number) then buy silver.  Cards like Market, Treasury and Highway are thought to be too slow.

But I started wondering about this.  Let's say you are given a straight-up choice between Silver and Market.  When you draw Silver it gives a free $2, whereas Market gives you a free $1 plus a card and a Buy.  If we assume the +1 Buy is useless (to simplify things) that means to pick the Silver you have to value $1 more than a card.  Or, to put it another way, the average card in your deck must be worth less than a Copper.  This doesn't seem right to me.  The only time the average card in your deck should be worth less than a Copper in a BM deck should be turns 1-5.  And even if you face the decision on turn 1 or 2 (due to a 5/2 split) you have to assume that over the course of the game, the extra card from Market will be worth more than $1 more often than it is worth less than $1.

If we consider that the 'gravy' on the card (+1 Buy on Market, Topdeck on Treasury etc) could be useful on occasions, doesn't this mean that BM decks should be picking Peddlers over Silver?  And if this is the case then at what point do they cease to be BM decks?

Or am I missing something fundamental?

Hi Piemaster,

You're correct on the math, but not considering the effect of 'greening'. So yes, the average card value of your deck is probably below 1.0 until around turn 5, but it is likely to drop below 1.0 again once you start grabbing Provinces. I've stopped working on it for the time being, but for a while I was actually building a calculator to handle these kinds of calculations.. I have a post about it here:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=943.0

[Geronimoo]

If you're clearly playing a BM deck, it's never bad to take Silver with $5. Occasionaly a Market/Lab/... will increase your win rate slightly, but it might also cause you to derail from your initial strategy into FPS-country (Fancy Play Syndrome).