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Author Topic: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Game Over!)  (Read 75209 times)

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pacovf

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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #675 on: October 07, 2016, 12:22:21 am »

fat fingers.

...despite the OVERWHELMING towniness of all their posts... I actually want to lynch SpaceAnemone today.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #676 on: October 07, 2016, 12:26:16 am »

Will defend myself if need to, but the main thing is how hard I drove PPS during D1 (started his wagon, nearly got him lynched after McGarnacle claimed, I never moved my vote away from him).

Also, trivially true that if I were scum, it would have been way smarter to keep Lalight alive, considering he thought I was the towniest town ever and basically lynched ash for me just because I said so (while SpaceAnemone was a crapshoot).


I REALLY hope I just won the game for town, because what I am putting off just to be able to make these last two posts is ridiculously important, and I will barely have more time until the deadline.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #677 on: October 07, 2016, 12:54:05 am »

Ok, the PPS reread made me want to lynch pacovf but rereading SpaceAnemone I can totally see them being scum. I'll try and get a good case together tomorrow morning, but it won't be quite as detailed as my PPS reread.

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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #678 on: October 07, 2016, 08:22:14 am »

Huh, that's not what I expected!

Actually fairly devoid of content all D1...? Only one random vote for most of the day. Kind of actilurking.
I was trying so hard to get people talking to each other, because I really didn't know how else to make the game work! I have a hard time speaking up in games where everyone knows each other (see BSG and the other still-running game), so it was pretty exciting to have one where I wasn't the odd one out. The other game I managed to interact so much was Olympics, and there, my newbie status and enthusiasm made me the N1 kill, which was not a fun introduction to forum mafia, especially since it's my only PR to date!

Flimsy case on J Reggie.
I was trying! I still think he's more likely to be scum than you are, and even Ash was willing to vote for him at one point (before deciding you are scummier!), so I don't think my feeling suspicious of him was as much of a stupid move as you're making out, regardless of whether I'm able to articulate it well enough for a strong case.

Does vote PPS fairly early, but asks if they should unvote when noticing the L-1, then unvotes when PPS defends himself
If you look at the timing of the posts there, you might see that my "okay, unvote" was in response to your post saying we need to calm down -- the PPS one just came along only seconds before mine, and wasn't one I'd read before reacting. Yes, I clicked through the red warning text, but that's because everything was just going really fast. I'd already said in-game that I was distracted cooking dinner, so I figured that wasn't a big deal... especially after you'd just accused me of almost doing a derp-hammer!

Starts D4 with a comment about nightkill (don't usually like this sort of arguments but still)
It seemed like a relevant comment on the game when there are so few of us left! And it would have been much less stressful on me if LaLight was the one having to puzzle it out between the two of you!

Also people have mentioned how PPS was avoiding talking about or to SA until very late.
Go back to #196 and see what a pleasant person he sounded like to interact with. Then the exchange at #222/#239... I think it's enough to explain things!

despite the OVERWHELMING towniness of all their posts... I actually want to lynch SpaceAnemone today
This is going to be a shitty way to end the game :-( Can you go and look at the two places I've already been mislynched and see how very similar the situations are? In BSG it was lylo too, and I got called scummy basically for defending myself, or being quiet at the wrong time, or for wanting more experienced town people around who I could trust and meta-read. Honestly, go and read those and then tell me you still think there's a chance I'm scum here!

J Reggie, you've already seen at least one of those -- do you seriously think I'm being any different in this game?
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

pacovf

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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #679 on: October 07, 2016, 10:43:46 am »

Sorry if I was blunt, life is crazy right now and I don't have the time to phrase my thoughts properly, please don't take anything personally...

I am the first one surprised by my conclusion of the reread. I was 100% expecting to come out of it voting for J Reggie, but that's not what happened. I don't really have the time for more rereads right now, I will try to check the games you mentioned but I can't promise anything.

The main thing is, your thought process is very very townie, but that might just be the way you think. When I get down to concrete actions, JReggie looks better than you. Have you already been mafia here?
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #680 on: October 07, 2016, 11:45:05 am »

So pacovf opens pretty aggressively, and he and PPS clash like right off the bat. The interesting thing though is they seem to direct attention conveniently away from each other as D1 goes on. I feel like he's doing all the stuff scum likes to do to look like they're forwarding the game without getting their partner lynched.

Spaceanemone kind of actilurks D1. I can see them being scum for that but can also see that as town having trouble getting into the game.

I think I've made up my mind at this point. I'm going to be semi-vla all weekend so I'm hoping to place my vote today. I won't do it before you two are done rereading though.

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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #681 on: October 07, 2016, 12:23:42 pm »

The main thing is, your thought process is very very townie, but that might just be the way you think. When I get down to concrete actions, JReggie looks better than you. Have you already been mafia here?

Nope, I was Watcher in Olympics, but got NKd before I got a chance to do anything. I've been VT in everything else so far.
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

pacovf

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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #682 on: October 07, 2016, 01:17:05 pm »

I was constantly on PPS, it might have looked like I deflected only because before McG claimed, people didnt seem interested in lynching PPS
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #683 on: October 07, 2016, 06:23:56 pm »

Big re-read on Paco, since I didn't actually post a comprehensive one earlier.

Will you explain 89% thing?

Eventually, yes, but first I would like to know who I am playing with (hence my newbie question). It helps understand everybody's reactions. I am particularly wary of experienced players that I've never played with before.
-- having opened with an 89% serious vote on Ash, he gets quite criptic about his reasons, and never does go back and explain quite what he was up to.

No way. I see this is scum all the time. To wit, silverspawn's most recent Mafia world championship game he opened something similar and I immediately guessed him to be scum which is exactly how he turned out.

Well, silverspawn and I are different people, I think? Otherwise I wouldn't be able to play this game. Because I would also be modding it. And I would know everybody's alignment. And that would be cheating.
-- does this read like it could be a set-up conversation between scum partners, before they got into the adversarial stuff?

Paco omgusing me doesn't really sway me off the idea.

So I wanted to get back to you about my bad feeling.

See, what I normally see about other players, when they get invested in a game as you are, is that half their cases or reads seem to come out of nowhere. Half the time they won't ever explain them. And the other half, even after they explain them, there's a good 40% the reasons will seem weird to me! Best case scenario, they just OMGUS people and bend themselves backwards to find a reason to find them scummy. This is only more true in your case, since your thought process and mine are very different, from what I remember playing with you or reading your games.

But here, you've jumped on the "hard claim town" and "overly helpful" cliche arguments for finding someone scummy (I was aware that opening with a town claim is considered scummy in this forum, I wanted to see who would jump on it). Super safe, super forgettable reasons and votes. I am wary of that.
-- this one just makes me uneasy because he's clearly playing a complicated game whatever level you read it on: he's saying he's town opening scummily, but saying it to someone we now know to be scum, but he could easily also be scum himself saying it to cover any minor scummy stuff he does while trying to cover up his motives.

We've still got what 5 days till the end of the day, so we don't need to rush for a lynch quite yet. Before I reread again, PPS or Zigaton would be ok lynches, so would be McGarnacle and Lalight, and I am promoting J Reggie to lynchable by virtue of me not remembering if h's done anything memorable yet. RR and McG would be the main targets of a reread, I think.
-- I distinctly remember in one of the other games people complaining about anyone who tries to convince town that we've got plenty of time left, because the risk of missing a deadline and not getting a lynch is bad. PPS reiterates the same point 11 posts later!

After the last vote is cast, you are guaranteed to die, and you get to speak until the mod sees that last vote and closes the thread.

I haven't been following the game super closely the last two days, can someone remind me why we think McG is scum?
-- Is asking other people to make cases that he can then jump on a scum tactic? Especially when at that point he's voting for PPS.

There's a whole section around J Reggie's fakehammer that I just don't know how to handle, because it's quite a long conversation in which PPS and Paco are the main players. Hard to work out what's townie and what's not even with one of them conf!scum in retrospect.

No, it looks like it wasn't.

I am fairly busy, and need time to mull over the recent developments, but please don't go lynching people without taking the time to think things through?
-- One of Paco's posts urging things to slow down when the PPS lynch was in progress.

I think PPS is just bad at reading setups. He might still be scum, but let's calm down.

Mafia either have a roleblocker or an investigation inmune scum, so McG wouldn't have given us any new info other than telling us which setup we have, which is 100% irrelevant now. So whatevs.
-- and the "let's calm down" part that ended up making me unvote, which he then managed to scumread me for later on.

Heh. Sure. I mean, this will be the third time you are 100% convinced I am scum ("If I claim daycop, will you lynch him?", remember that one?), and yet I turn out to be town, so I think even you trust yourself too blindly.

Anyway, doesn't look like you want to be useful, so we'll have to wait for the new day and see.

Scumslip bolded for emphasis.  Assuming a new day means you know I'm town.
-- This is one useful piece of particularly useful evidence that Ash left us with.

Argh, I was hoping it would be Lalight, now I need to reread SA... I mean, I don't expect to find them scummier than J Reggie, but well they were considered IC by everybody so they shouldn't have survived until now and now I am paranoid.
-- This could easily be a WIFOM thing with the NK if Paco is scum, especially since LL and I were both townread, and LL was the one voting for JR yesterday. I think it's safe to say that it's usually possible to make a scum case on anyone if you're feeling paranoid, because I feel like I can believe either JR or Paco can come off as scummy based on my re-reads to date.

It's hard to reconcile my most-of-the-game scumread on JR with the Ash-evidence and scumslip Paco, especially because even coming into D4 I thought Paco was town, but then a bunch of the stuff above doesn't look great.

I'm also worried because JR hasn't posted any actual re-read on either me or Paco.. presumably scum have a harder time reading people if they know they're town? He did post on PPS, but then that's a known scum already, so presumably easier to deal with. I think that's my biggest doubt left at this stage.
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pacovf

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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #684 on: October 07, 2016, 08:32:23 pm »

Ehrm obviously I disagree with a lot of what you say, but I don't have the time to get into detail. Just to say that ash would have said he was scum once lynched, so the fact that he didnt meant he was town. Only hurtpride!ash could construe that as a scumslip.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #685 on: October 07, 2016, 08:34:23 pm »

Man, first time I reach Lylo and I have no time, which sucks because otherwise I would be able to go into how nonsensical some of the arguments flying around are.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #686 on: October 07, 2016, 11:48:11 pm »

Wait, is the deadline Tuesday? If so I'll have time to do comprehensive posts for SpaceAnemone and Paco.

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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #687 on: October 08, 2016, 09:22:43 am »

Well V/LA starting very soon. I will try to get in before Monday night if I can, but can't guarantee anything.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #688 on: October 08, 2016, 09:25:06 am »

Wait, is the deadline Tuesday? If so I'll have time to do comprehensive posts for SpaceAnemone and Paco.

Yes, 11am forum time on Tuesday.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #689 on: October 09, 2016, 04:16:30 pm »

Ok, I'll try to get those rereads done tonight, and otherwise tomorrow.

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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 1)
« Reply #690 on: October 10, 2016, 06:10:43 pm »

Pacovf reread:

Been a while since I've been in a game. Can the newbies tell us how newbie they are?

Good that I am not mafia, I don't really have the time to play scum right now.

Oh and vote: Ashersky. 89% serious vote

No need to thank me for trying to shorten RVS (random voting stage)

Very polarizing opening post.  I initially thought it was scummy, then too scummy to be scum.  He got a lot of suspicion for this though, especially by experienced players like Ash.  The whole thing about "early wagons are always on town" is so not true.  In fact, the fact that he got to L-2 early and then nothing came of it is super suspicious. 

I like you already.

Will check later, when I am done doing the things I am procrastinating on right now.

Tries to buddy me.  Scum points. 

This joke is scummy.  Plus emoticon.

Not superstrong, but I guess no D1 case ever is...

In the mean time, vote: Zigaton. Only posted twice, and both posts raised red flags for me.

This vote feels scummy to me.  It did get a big wagon on town started. 

I think it's time for a read list:

Would lynch:

Zigaton (as far as I am concerned, his second post was super scummy. Might be me OMGUSing, I am hoping it isn't)
PPS (jumping on easy votes, makes me feel uneasy)
Lalight (has done some things typically attributed to scum)

McGarnacle (don't feel very strongly about this one, but will vote if necessary)

Would not lynch:

SpaceAnemone (strongish townread)
RoadRunner (mild townread)

No opinion:

ashersky (not as confrontational as he usually is, dunno how to feel about that)
J Reggie (barely present)

Two towns and his partner in the "would lynch" seems about right for scum. 

-snip-
Actually, I think I am going to put my vote where my words are, vote: PPS.


Note: 5 out of 8 players have expressed an interest in lynching me, so it's kinda hard for me to vote for someone without OMGUSing them...

Big post, followed by a reluctant vote on scum, then saying that it's hard not to OMGUS anyone at this point... yeah, looks like a bus. 

He only played in one game, per the records, and he was town (and won).

Actually, I've played in 4 games, always VT (sort of, for RMM21). I've been in NM6, M50, RMM21, and M64, in that order. Even got MVP in NM6, in a rather embarrassing way </humblebrag>

The recent exchange between Lalight and McGarnacle is... interesting...

Would definitely like to hear more from RR and J Reggie.

Zigaton, do you have a basic idea of what's going on? Do you have any questions? If you have no idea of what's going on, post a short list of what you think of every player. It doesn't necessarily have to be based on facts, just the general feel you get from each player is enough, even if you can't quite explain them.

SCUMSLIP! (lol jk)

but seriously, the Zigaton thing is total backpedaling after starting that wagon.  Just this post in general is scummy. 

Fair enough. What's your position on the other players? Am I the only one you would like to see lynched?

Hmm, I know that saying someone's case on you is good or in this case "fair enough" is often seen as scummy.  Not sure if I buy it though.

Also I seriously doubt that both PPS and ash are scum. Game would feel very different if they were.

Not sure what to think here.  This is probably something I'd have said as scum, but it also makes it hard for Pacovf to go after ash in the case that PPS flips.

Fakehammer thing is here.  Not sure why he disapproved of that.  I think scum is more likely to do that. 

Well, let's not lose momentum here either. I am happy with my current vote on PPS. Zigaton would be an ok lynch too, but I wouldn't be unhappy to let him be until D2, where we will also have two flips to better understand whatever his deal is. Need to reread Lalight and RR to see how happy I would be about their lynches, especially after whatever has been going the past few days and that I haven't had the time to analyze yet (notably McG's claim).

I won't lynch SA or J Reggie today (and probably never), McG is presumably town, and I think I like what I've seen from ash today, so he's off the list for now.

Overall I think we're having a solid D1.

If he's scum, he's removing a bunch of townies from his lynch list here, which scum would presumably not want to do.  He is looking for alternatives to PPS without looking like he's too eager to get off that wagon, though, which is scummy. 

Obviously I don't know what ash thinks, but I can tell you this:

So then I'm left with JR and RR, and I expected my reread to back up JR's case on RR, but it doesn't. JR is so absent early on that he'd posted more stuff before it had started than in its early pages. He voted for Paco because of his opening statement about not being Mafia (#68), then later made a point of saying it's something you'd only do as town (#96), and then goes on to say he's town a whole bunch of times, which is essentially the same thing as being not Mafia.


This is not very strong. In the early stages of the game, people usually vote randomly, to try to get real interactions started. Once things start to develop, people get more serious about their votes. So him voting for me in RVS (Random Voting Stage), then saying that he actually thinks I am town and unvoting is not scummy at all.

Quote
He's quite jumpy about votes, like saying he won't vote for Zigaton, then voting for him, then going back to RR, who he'd been voting for earlier. Actually, he seems to be quite against RR in general, when RR's actually not really said anything too suspicious (though it would be good if he'd interact more!).

I think he said that he wanted to give a newbie D1 pass to Zigaton, which doesn't say much about what his position on him is. When other people disagreed about newbie D1 passes, he started voting for him.

Focussing on a player can be a townie thing to do. Townies often get tunnel vision on a player. Of course, mafia can fake this, which helps make them less accountable if somebody else gets lynched, but they are sort of giving up their vote.

Basically, these two arguments are weak-ish, because they are not much more likely to come from scum than from mafia. If, say, we lynched PPS and he flipped scum, then you could say that J Reggie focussing on RR so much right now would be scummy, because he would be trying to deflect from a PPS lynch. But with the information we have right now, I don't see it.

Quote
Do scums do fake hammers to look townie? Especially ones who know there are some newbie-but-learning people like me and LaLight who might then assume he's good? I think this might be like WIFOM, but I'm still generally not liking it.

This is the part that makes it particularly unlikely that J Reggie is scum. We now know that McG is town. Let's assume that J Reggie is scum (noted scum!JR), and McG is a Vanilla Townie (noted VT!McG), because back then we didn't know McG had a PR (Power Role).

So scum!JR sees McG at L-1, with town being generably agreeable to lynching him. It wasn't guaranteed to happen, but it looked likely. scum!JR can do nothing at all, or insist on how scummy McG is. Result: D1 ends with a mislynch. Or we can fake-hammer him. Two possible results, assuming McG actually believes he is lynched: he reacts in a more or less neutral way, so we are back to L-1 without much difference. Or, much more likely, he reacts in an overwhelmingly townie way, and now nobody wants to lynch him, basically giving town a confirmed town player for no reason at all. The odds of McG reacting in a scummy way are basically zero, since he is town and believes he is lynched.

If you are scum, fake hammering a townie serves no purpose at all, and more likely than not will hurt your position, when you were already about to mislynch a townie. Considering that J Reggie is a more experienced player, the chances that he did this are close to zero. So that's why ash, PPS and me think he is town.

Whole lot of stuff here.  He still doesn't say why he disapproves of the fakehammer.  Also, he tries to setup my mislynch if he knows that PPS is scum. 

You pressured me?

Both RR and you feel a bit off from your usual playstyle. Of course once you point that out it becomes a huge meta ball, but still. I prefer you slightly over RR because you are a bit scarier, because trying to defuse the fake hammer doesn't look good (especially when you say it's ok because it created interactions or whatever), and because lynching lurkers D1 is a double edged sword. It's not a super huge preference mind you.

I prefer either of you to Lalight because he's a newbie, which is always harder to predict. Also, for what it's worth, SA insists this is normal!Lalight.

Nevertheless, either of these (or Zigaton) would make for a good lynch.

This interaction seems fake to me.  I think when I initially reread pacovf and SA but didn't post anything, this was the thing that made me the most sure pacovf was the one. 

That's basically it from D1.  He isn't around for the deadline, so not much interaction to look at there.  I'm happy with voting him based on this alone.  Then there's this:

...please tell me that wasn't ANOTHER derphammer

which is scummy considering he was voting for PPS basically all of D1.  Why would he be upset?  He then asks some PR questions so that he doesn't have to comment on the whole scumslip thing

Well this definitely feels a lot more like ash. Damn, he might just have gotten MVP here. Curse you, I was going for it. I'll have to find scum tomorrow then.

Ooo, scummy vibes here. 

OK, I'll post this now. 

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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #691 on: October 10, 2016, 06:18:36 pm »

Instead of doing a giant reread post of SA, I just want to look at the biggest case against them: that there's no way they could have lived this long as town. 

So yes, SA has been pretty towny all game, despite being rather fluffy D1.  So it would have made sense for non-SA!scum to kill them because there's no way they're getting lynched, right?  Well look at the kills scum has made.  Two of them are PRs, which are much more useful to kill because not only can they potentially out scum, but they can also become ICs, which is really irksome for scum, especially in a small game.  Then, there's LaLight, who is arguably more towny than SA.  That's really the only time SA could have died.  We can look at all the reasons why scum would or wouldn't have kept SA over LaLight, but really, I think this is a case where the simplest answer is actually the right one. 

I've made up my mind, and there's not much more time.  We have less than a day.  Not voting now is only harming us even more.  I think it's time now to vote: Pacovf.  If I'm wrong, I apologize to town for losing the game.  If I'm right, YAY.  But no sense in letting this drag on.

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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #692 on: October 10, 2016, 06:52:33 pm »

Vote: pacovf
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #693 on: October 10, 2016, 06:55:14 pm »

Damn, well played SA, well deserved win
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #694 on: October 10, 2016, 06:56:05 pm »

There was no way I could convince J Reggie to vote for SA with how little time I had. Overall I am still happy with how I played.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #695 on: October 10, 2016, 06:58:37 pm »

Also, ash... Third time you do silly things because you are 120% convinced I am scum, even though I am town. Please keep it in mind next time we play.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #696 on: October 10, 2016, 06:59:39 pm »

\o/
That was scary :-P
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #697 on: October 10, 2016, 07:04:17 pm »

To be fair, I was SO scared of being wrong about you, I just waited for J Reggie to vote and decide for me, so I can't really blame him, reluctance to vote is scummy. His final case on me is 80% taken out of context though. But again, I just had no time this last week for huge rereads and speaking cases.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #698 on: October 10, 2016, 07:04:59 pm »

*sprawling cases, my autocorrect is a bit psychotic.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Day 4)
« Reply #699 on: October 10, 2016, 07:11:14 pm »

I was so sure you guys were going to catch me when neither of you came into the current day phase going after each other. I thought a more thorough re-read of RR's mislynch and the way I just didn't say anything about PPS's wagon was going to be my downfall... I've been on edge for days!!

It's been a lot of fun, though :-) Thank you everyone!!
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