Obviously I don't know what ash thinks, but I can tell you this:
So then I'm left with JR and RR, and I expected my reread to back up JR's case on RR, but it doesn't. JR is so absent early on that he'd posted more stuff before it had started than in its early pages. He voted for Paco because of his opening statement about not being Mafia (#68), then later made a point of saying it's something you'd only do as town (#96), and then goes on to say he's town a whole bunch of times, which is essentially the same thing as being not Mafia.
This is not very strong. In the early stages of the game, people usually vote randomly, to try to get real interactions started. Once things start to develop, people get more serious about their votes. So him voting for me in RVS (Random Voting Stage), then saying that he actually thinks I am town and unvoting is not scummy at all.
He's quite jumpy about votes, like saying he won't vote for Zigaton, then voting for him, then going back to RR, who he'd been voting for earlier. Actually, he seems to be quite against RR in general, when RR's actually not really said anything too suspicious (though it would be good if he'd interact more!).
I think he said that he wanted to give a newbie D1 pass to Zigaton, which doesn't say much about what his position on him is. When other people disagreed about newbie D1 passes, he started voting for him.
Focussing on a player can be a townie thing to do. Townies often get tunnel vision on a player. Of course, mafia can fake this, which helps make them less accountable if somebody else gets lynched, but they are sort of giving up their vote.
Basically, these two arguments are weak-ish, because they are not much more likely to come from scum than from mafia. If, say, we lynched PPS and he flipped scum, then you could say that J Reggie focussing on RR so much right now would be scummy, because he would be trying to deflect from a PPS lynch. But with the information we have right now, I don't see it.
Do scums do fake hammers to look townie? Especially ones who know there are some newbie-but-learning people like me and LaLight who might then assume he's good? I think this might be like WIFOM, but I'm still generally not liking it.
This is the part that makes it particularly unlikely that J Reggie is scum. We now know that McG is town. Let's assume that J Reggie is scum (noted scum!JR), and McG is a Vanilla Townie (noted VT!McG), because back then we didn't know McG had a PR (Power Role).
So scum!JR sees McG at L-1, with town being generably agreeable to lynching him. It wasn't guaranteed to happen, but it looked likely. scum!JR can do nothing at all, or insist on how scummy McG is. Result: D1 ends with a mislynch. Or we can fake-hammer him. Two possible results, assuming McG actually believes he is lynched: he reacts in a more or less neutral way, so we are back to L-1 without much difference. Or, much more likely, he reacts in an overwhelmingly townie way, and now nobody wants to lynch him, basically giving town a confirmed town player for no reason at all. The odds of McG reacting in a scummy way are basically zero, since he is town and believes he is lynched.
If you are scum, fake hammering a townie serves no purpose at all, and more likely than not will hurt your position, when you were already about to mislynch a townie. Considering that J Reggie is a more experienced player, the chances that he did this are close to zero. So that's why ash, PPS and me think he is town.
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Topic: Newbie Mafia 8: Time Loops (Game Over!) (Read 75258 times)