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[silverspawn]

[schadd]

so, gkrieg, i'm pretty sure i knew that 1398 was exaggerated and more of a public declaration that you were, like, trying to ally with me than a proper readpost (for example "good claim, good timing." what does that even mean), but i didn't think it was suspicious thusly (for some reason). what was your thought process there?

[gkrieg13]

so, gkrieg, i'm pretty sure i knew that 1398 was exaggerated and more of a public declaration that you were, like, trying to ally with me than a proper readpost (for example "good claim, good timing." what does that even mean), but i didn't think it was suspicious thusly (for some reason). what was your thought process there?

I honestly just thought that I had to look like I was doing something.  I knew Joseph wasn't going to do a big reread post, so I thought that if I did, someone would think that I was townier than him.

[schadd]

hm. well, i got seduced

[J Reggie]

gg! Lalight played a great game as well. Also it was really fun playing with schadd, sorry we couldn't be on the same team!

[Witherweaver]

Mafia: https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/q2DK6iaEtpwfM

gkrieg13 gets MVP for never drawing suspicion most of the game and a ridiculous fake claim.

Hey sometimes the more ridiculous the fakeclaim, the better.

Too bad I only make ridiculous fakeclaims as town

[Witherweaver]

Not really.  The world as we loved it has ended...

Joseph was Granmamare, a Doctor.

J Reggie (Yubaba, The Godfather), LaLight (Eboshi, the 1-Shot Bulletproof Roleblocker), and gkrieg13 (Kushana, the Strongman Goon) win flawlessly!

Wait a second.. wasn't I adamant about lynching J Reggie and LaLight on Day 1?

[iguanaiguana]

Not really.  The world as we loved it has ended...

Joseph was Granmamare, a Doctor.

J Reggie (Yubaba, The Godfather), LaLight (Eboshi, the 1-Shot Bulletproof Roleblocker), and gkrieg13 (Kushana, the Strongman Goon) win flawlessly!

Wait a second.. wasn't I adamant about lynching J Reggie and LaLight on Day 1?

Me too bro, me too.

[Witherweaver]

Not really.  The world as we loved it has ended...

Joseph was Granmamare, a Doctor.

J Reggie (Yubaba, The Godfather), LaLight (Eboshi, the 1-Shot Bulletproof Roleblocker), and gkrieg13 (Kushana, the Strongman Goon) win flawlessly!

Wait a second.. wasn't I adamant about lynching J Reggie and LaLight on Day 1?

Me too bro, me too.

I wish I would just get killed Night 1 when I correctly call out scum on Day 1 so I don't have to go mess it up later.

[gkrieg13]

Ya I didn't think we were going to be able to keep the whole team together, but I think we would have lost if we hadn't gotten the Joseph lynch through this last day

[Roadrunner7671]

Can't believe I got lynched

[J Reggie]

I even scumslipped D1 and no one noticed!

[gkrieg13]

Can't believe I got lynched

You were very absent.

[J Reggie]

I'd call LaLight's opening to D4 a scumslip and go after him hard. I don't think townies think about the possible quickhammer in those terms that fast.

I was worried about this and was surprised no one noticed it. I wonder if I would have noticed it as town?

[J Reggie]

Could everyone state their top 3 townreads (other than me)?

Sorry I hadn't done this yet! I think gkrieg and J Reggie are up there. I'm still leaning very townie on LaLight...

I was very happy when I read this post.

[gkrieg13]

Also very sorry SA. You were just the perfect mislynch target

[gkrieg13]

This setup has been very good to me.

[LaLight]

Oh man, this was so hard but so interesting! Thank youo for game, everyone. Now I think, I won't be able to hide under my newbieness anymore. I was so glad being townread by most of the people. Thanks again! And thanks to my teammates too. My first scum game went well.

[SpaceAnemone]

Also very sorry SA. You were just the perfect mislynch target

I have so much pent-up OMGUS!! :-P

[SpaceAnemone]

Oh man, this was so hard but so interesting! Thank youo for game, everyone. Now I think, I won't be able to hide under my newbieness anymore. I was so glad being townread by most of the people. Thanks again! And thanks to my teammates too. My first scum game went well.

You're too easy to like. At least I scum-read you eventually! :-)

[SpaceAnemone]

okay, you got me, I don't know much about probability theories, I'm in a minority of humanitarians on this site.

Nevertheless I didn't count this as "he can't be the scum three times in a row so he's town". It was just my (false) observation. I don't really trust him.

39% for a letter to appear once

24,5% to appear 2 times
8% to appear 3 times
1,5% to appear 4 times
0,15% to appear 5 times

0,0064% to appear 6 times

Also, where on earth did these numbers come from?? :-P

[LaLight]

okay, you got me, I don't know much about probability theories, I'm in a minority of humanitarians on this site.

Nevertheless I didn't count this as "he can't be the scum three times in a row so he's town". It was just my (false) observation. I don't really trust him.

39% for a letter to appear once

24,5% to appear 2 times
8% to appear 3 times
1,5% to appear 4 times
0,15% to appear 5 times

0,0064% to appear 6 times

Also, where on earth did these numbers come from?? :-P

What is wrong with the numbers? I spent the entire morning to count those!

[SpaceAnemone]

okay, you got me, I don't know much about probability theories, I'm in a minority of humanitarians on this site.

Nevertheless I didn't count this as "he can't be the scum three times in a row so he's town". It was just my (false) observation. I don't really trust him.

39% for a letter to appear once

24,5% to appear 2 times
8% to appear 3 times
1,5% to appear 4 times
0,15% to appear 5 times

0,0064% to appear 6 times

Also, where on earth did these numbers come from?? :-P

What is wrong with the numbers? I spent the entire morning to count those!

Different letters had different probabilities, for one thing! What you want to do to work numbers like these out is to use the Binomial distribution with n=6 rolls and set k to be the number of times you want that letter to appear. Then set p to be the probability of that letter appearing, which is 0.5 for T, 0.05 for C and D, and 0.1 for M, V, B and E.

Because of the weirdness with the "E" letters, there are a few game states that you can arrive at from multiple different letter roles, so what you probably care about more is the probability of having a doctor (or whichever role you're worried about) in the game.. there are just over 1900 different game states (I fudged my count a bit so that masons with and without using up the UB are counted separately), so that's a more complicated distribution to calculate, and you probably don't want to be doing it by hand :-)

[LaLight]

okay, you got me, I don't know much about probability theories, I'm in a minority of humanitarians on this site.

Nevertheless I didn't count this as "he can't be the scum three times in a row so he's town". It was just my (false) observation. I don't really trust him.

I did not count T's, I knew there wasn't one.

39% for a letter to appear once

24,5% to appear 2 times
8% to appear 3 times
1,5% to appear 4 times
0,15% to appear 5 times

0,0064% to appear 6 times

Also, where on earth did these numbers come from?? :-P

What is wrong with the numbers? I spent the entire morning to count those!

Different letters had different probabilities, for one thing! What you want to do to work numbers like these out is to use the Binomial distribution with n=6 rolls and set k to be the number of times you want that letter to appear. Then set p to be the probability of that letter appearing, which is 0.5 for T, 0.05 for C and D, and 0.1 for M, V, B and E.

Because of the weirdness with the "E" letters, there are a few game states that you can arrive at from multiple different letter roles, so what you probably care about more is the probability of having a doctor (or whichever role you're worried about) in the game.. there are just over 1900 different game states (I fudged my count a bit so that masons with and without using up the UB are counted separately), so that's a more complicated distribution to calculate, and you probably don't want to be doing it by hand :-)

[faust]

Well played, scum!