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[Joseph2302]

IMO we have two scums here and can't decide which one to lynch. Ridiculous

Not ridiculous.
Yes they're probably both scum, but one of them is the strongman.
So it's better to kill the strongman first.

[schadd]

people seem to be making the assumption that there is no outcome wherein scum wouldn't use strongman (but oh, there is!)

Care to enlighten me?

the one where it's one-shot strongman because there's only three PRs. MCETTT

b) There is no town roleblocker, or else the would have claimed by now.

ok, cool. so now it's MCETTT against the double-doctor one.

a) For some reason, you're not factoring in your own role.

that will generally be my m.o., to provide arguments that work even if you don't believe the other stuff that i'm saying. if you did factor in my claim i think it weakens the ww-is-lying one, since my role forces it to be MCE and not, like, MDC or MER or whatever, whereas it already fits in to the double-doctor ones.

c) Probability arguments suck.

k
do you disagree that ww might fakeclaim, then?

[Witherweaver]

Woah OK that's L-1. I really don't have the time right now, but hopefully tonight I can reread SA just to be sure if I want to hammer. I think they're probably our best shot. But a mislynch here takes us to lylo with three scum so we need to be careful.

At least SA has an infinitely higher chance at being scum than I do.

If you hammer tonight, I urge everyone to lynch you tomorrow.

Space-A needs at least time to claim.

You think Reggie is a better bet than Space?

Yes. Also, knowing Reggie's alignment will be a big help moving on I think.

I'll do Reggie if you prefer.

[schadd]

Well J Reggie is scum and I'm happy to switch back to him if you think Space is a bad call.

can you, like, make a case at all? your D3 reads more scummy to me than his but maybe i'm confusing scummy with trumpy

[iguanaiguana]

So I'm just going to fall asleep tonight (it's been a long day). So I'm not going to be doing any hammering. Does anyone else think schadd's most recent posts read as kind of weirdly nervous?

lol hi scum

Why are we not killing this guy?

What? How in the world does this make you think I'm scum. This proves that I want to put energy into my reads, rather than just saying "yep, I reread and I'm good with hammering". I want to know whether I'm making the right decision, and I can't do that when I'm about to collapse after a long day.

Just the sentence where you call Schadd weirdly nervous. Sorry, I wasn't calling your IRL exhaustion scummy. Just your reads.

[iguanaiguana]

IMO we have two scums here and can't decide which one to lynch. Ridiculous

Not ridiculous.
Yes they're probably both scum, but one of them is the strongman.
So it's better to kill the strongman first.

Absolutely impossible to figure out which one that is! It's a shot in the dark. This comment is totally irrelevant.

[Witherweaver]

IMO we have two scums here and can't decide which one to lynch. Ridiculous

Not ridiculous.
Yes they're probably both scum, but one of them is the strongman.
So it's better to kill the strongman first.

Absolutely impossible to figure out which one that is! It's a shot in the dark. This comment is totally irrelevant.

Eh, Space being Strongman is more likely if they're both scum.  But I don't think that should be a huge factor.

[iguanaiguana]

Well J Reggie is scum and I'm happy to switch back to him if you think Space is a bad call.

can you, like, make a case at all? your D3 reads more scummy to me than his but maybe i'm confusing scummy with trumpy

Faust made the case. I very much agree with it. Making the exact same case again is borderline pointless, but since you apparently think I'm scum casting votes for no reason, I'll give my best shot anyway of saying what has already been said better by someone else.

CASE ON J REGGIE

When you look back now at the people who were trying to lynch J Reggie on D1 and almost succeeded, they are a mix of confirmed town players and very towny players. The unknowns of D3 (today) are noticeably absent. That means that if J Reggie were town, he would have had mostly town players on him and been at L-1 where scum could have easily hammered him. Instead, most of the unknowns on D1 were on Mail-mi's wagon at the end of day.

You also have to understand that from my perspective, this looks even more clear. I was on J Reggie's wagon and I know that I am town. So to me, the people who wanted J Reggie lynched were really ALL town whereas many of the people who wanted Mail-mi lynched were unknowns. For you, it may be slightly less clear than that, as I am able to ascribe a strong townread to you whereas you are not able to do so for me.

This is the best evidence I have ever found in mafia for one player being scum and one player being town. It's called wagon analysis. In this case, it appears that on D1 the mafia was protecting their partner J Reggie by voting for Mail-mi and trying to make his wagon look more appealing and easier to accomplish. I believe that wagon analysis and reads-based analysis is a better way to cast your vote than probability analysis in MOST cases.

At the beginning of D2 J Reggie was fortunate enough to have two strong players (Faust and WW) say "I think his wagon was probably also on a town" and therefore send us on a wild goose chase for some other player to lynch up until today. D2 J reggie kept a SUPER-SUPER low profile, and he did that also on D3 before Faust and I started throwing suspicion onto him again. I think several of his posts today have been scummy. In particular, suggesting that your behavior is scummy is super suspicious. You are obvious town. If you need even more evidence for me, I will go and start digging up his quotes and do my best to point out the scum motivation for them.

Anyway, now I'm all fired up. Let's go back to J Reggie

Vote: J Reggie

[iguanaiguana]

Sorry if that is a condescending post but I found your insinuation that I am casting votes for no reason to be pretty damn insulting.

[iguanaiguana]

Also, if you think I am scum, vote me for goodness sakes. You never know who you might get lynched!

[LaLight]

Well J Reggie is scum and I'm happy to switch back to him if you think Space is a bad call.

can you, like, make a case at all? your D3 reads more scummy to me than his but maybe i'm confusing scummy with trumpy

Faust made the case. I very much agree with it. Making the exact same case again is borderline pointless, but since you apparently think I'm scum casting votes for no reason, I'll give my best shot anyway of saying what has already been said better by someone else.

CASE ON J REGGIE

When you look back now at the people who were trying to lynch J Reggie on D1 and almost succeeded, they are a mix of confirmed town players and very towny players. The unknowns of D3 (today) are noticeably absent. That means that if J Reggie were town, he would have had mostly town players on him and been at L-1 where scum could have easily hammered him. Instead, most of the unknowns on D1 were on Mail-mi's wagon at the end of day.

You also have to understand that from my perspective, this looks even more clear. I was on J Reggie's wagon and I know that I am town. So to me, the people who wanted J Reggie lynched were really ALL town whereas many of the people who wanted Mail-mi lynched were unknowns. For you, it may be slightly less clear than that, as I am able to ascribe a strong townread to you whereas you are not able to do so for me.

This is the best evidence I have ever found in mafia for one player being scum and one player being town. It's called wagon analysis. In this case, it appears that on D1 the mafia was protecting their partner J Reggie by voting for Mail-mi and trying to make his wagon look more appealing and easier to accomplish. I believe that wagon analysis and reads-based analysis is a better way to cast your vote than probability analysis in MOST cases.

At the beginning of D2 J Reggie was fortunate enough to have two strong players (Faust and WW) say "I think his wagon was probably also on a town" and therefore send us on a wild goose chase for some other player to lynch up until today. D2 J reggie kept a SUPER-SUPER low profile, and he did that also on D3 before Faust and I started throwing suspicion onto him again. I think several of his posts today have been scummy. In particular, suggesting that your behavior is scummy is super suspicious. You are obvious town. If you need even more evidence for me, I will go and start digging up his quotes and do my best to point out the scum motivation for them.

Anyway, now I'm all fired up. Let's go back to J Reggie

Vote: J Reggie

IMO we have two scums here and can't decide which one to lynch. Ridiculous

Not ridiculous.
Yes they're probably both scum, but one of them is the strongman.
So it's better to kill the strongman first.

Absolutely impossible to figure out which one that is! It's a shot in the dark. This comment is totally irrelevant.

Guys. We are running from the one corner to another.
Let me put everything in a nutshell as I see it:
SpaceAnemone is scum.
JReggie is scum.
No way we can find a strongman.

Why do we go from one to another? We did'nt hear SA's claim yet (from times they was on L-1) and now we start to go to lynch JR. I have nothing against it but can we be more consistent? Or am I missing something?

[iguanaiguana]

I will hammer either of them.

[LaLight]

I will hammer either of them.

me too. I just want to give word to SA because we all go to JR.

[iguanaiguana]

I will hammer either of them.

me too. I just want to give word to SA because we all go to JR.

If by "we all" you mean "me" then I agree. Only one person switched. It's okay. He's still super pressured and he knows if J Reggie flips scum he's the default lynch for tomorrow. (J Reggie I'm sure knows he's the default lynch if Space flips scum too.)

[LaLight]

Woah OK that's L-1. I really don't have the time right now, but hopefully tonight I can reread SA just to be sure if I want to hammer. I think they're probably our best shot. But a mislynch here takes us to lylo with three scum so we need to be careful.

At least SA has an infinitely higher chance at being scum than I do.

If you hammer tonight, I urge everyone to lynch you tomorrow.

Space-A needs at least time to claim.

You think Reggie is a better bet than Space?

Yes. Also, knowing Reggie's alignment will be a big help moving on I think.

I'll do Reggie if you prefer.

@igu I meant this too

[LaLight]

IMO we have two scums here and can't decide which one to lynch. Ridiculous

Not ridiculous.
Yes they're probably both scum, but one of them is the strongman.
So it's better to kill the strongman first.

Absolutely impossible to figure out which one that is! It's a shot in the dark. This comment is totally irrelevant.

Eh, Space being Strongman is more likely if they're both scum.  But I don't think that should be a huge factor.

Why is they?

[LaLight]

Also, @Schadd and @Joseph, if you are to pick up out of those two, who do you vote?

[schadd]

Sorry if that is a condescending post but I found your insinuation that I am casting votes for no reason to be pretty damn insulting.

what? you are maybe in the wrong thread.
and also perhaps i might find it insulting that you think i've been ignoring the wagon analysis but you know. that's not what we do here.


the thing that i had been more concerned about is how you seem to have a sense of urgency, and, like, seeming incredibly confident about your reads. but i dunno.


anyway, vote: j reggie

i should probably be sheeping faust, since there's nothing he knows that i don't know except for whether i'm scum, and also because it's weak reads & inexperience v. experience and a pretty strong point of evidence.


the other thing is that igu is the only one that has really looked into j reggie since faust's post, especially considering how important wagon analysis supposedly is (and that s-a isn't supported by any, it would seem). i'm complicit in that but you know.


ppe: yea. i also think sa should still claim, maybe. but the only roles left seem to be doctor (which shouldn't claim) and maybe, like, cop or something

[schadd]

i think that's l-2

[schadd]

it is

[LaLight]

I'm with you, i just want to listen to Spaaaace first

[schadd]

alright then. we have a few hours to kill, then

I'm out in London for the night and away from a computer till tomorrow night...

[Witherweaver]

So what are we at now?  Looks like

SpaceAnemone (3): Witherweaver, gkrieg13, LaLight
gkrieg13 (1): Joseph2302
J Reggie (3): faust, Iguana,  schadd

Not Voting (3): SpaceAnemone, J Reggie,


Why is Joseph voting for Gkrieg?

[SpaceAnemone]

Hi all. Well, thanks for not killing me in my sleep I guess! I'm on the train home now, but it'll be close to 2pm forum time before I'm back near my computer, and I'd really like some reading time before anyone hammers... is that okay? Phone battery may not last the trip.

[Witherweaver]

I think you should claim.