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[faust]

So you are assuming that WW is telling the truth and saying the chance that both WW and SA are town is very low.  So you are saying you think SA is scum then? 

Actually your whole post is a little weird.  You are saying that you don't like the 1-shot BP explanation, but then your conclusion is that it is a real possibility?

It's called "stream of consciousness".

[iguanaiguana]

Can everyone read the like 6 short posts that J Reggie has made so far in D3 and tell me with a straight face that they are not super scummy?

[gkrieg13]

Faust is IC and schadd is close enough for me to give him a game-pass.

I believe WW. Why, on a night that no one died, would scum fakeclaim using one shot of a vigilante power? That makes no sense. It wouldn't even occur to them. The only reason to claim something like that is if it actually happened. If WW is faking that claim, I congratulate him for being very creative.

That leaves me with Gkrieg, LaLight, Joseph, Space, and J Reggie and three of those five are scum.

Based on how LaLight reacted to my suspicion yesterday, I don't think LaLight is scum anymore. Between the last four, trying to figure out which one is town is uh super hard. Yes, that's assuming I made the correct decision about everyone else. I could be wrong about LaLight or WW, I just really don't think so.

Anyway, I guess the most likely town to me out of those four is........ Gkrieg? But, Gkrieg could seriously be scum and just playing well too, so yeah.

That's where I'm at.

I'm kinda annoyed that we failed to lynch J Reggie D1, then he just lurked the next several days, and now even still no one is considering he's scum when the odds from my perspective are overwhelming that he is scum and the odds from everyone else's perspective should be pretty damn high too.

I just feel like SA is scum just from my reread of them D2.  I get what you are saying with the J Reggie thing, but I just feel like we have a better chance with SA.  I would definitely lynch J Reggie, but he isn't my first option, or even my second option.

In my eyes, iguana and faust and schadd are townie.  Then order of scumminess is SA>Joseph>J Reggie>LaLight>WW

PPEs

[iguanaiguana]

Faust is IC and schadd is close enough for me to give him a game-pass.

I believe WW. Why, on a night that no one died, would scum fakeclaim using one shot of a vigilante power? That makes no sense. It wouldn't even occur to them. The only reason to claim something like that is if it actually happened. If WW is faking that claim, I congratulate him for being very creative.

That leaves me with Gkrieg, LaLight, Joseph, Space, and J Reggie and three of those five are scum.

Based on how LaLight reacted to my suspicion yesterday, I don't think LaLight is scum anymore. Between the last four, trying to figure out which one is town is uh super hard. Yes, that's assuming I made the correct decision about everyone else. I could be wrong about LaLight or WW, I just really don't think so.

Anyway, I guess the most likely town to me out of those four is........ Gkrieg? But, Gkrieg could seriously be scum and just playing well too, so yeah.

That's where I'm at.

I'm kinda annoyed that we failed to lynch J Reggie D1, then he just lurked the next several days, and now even still no one is considering he's scum when the odds from my perspective are overwhelming that he is scum and the odds from everyone else's perspective should be pretty damn high too.

I just feel like SA is scum just from my reread of them D2.  I get what you are saying with the J Reggie thing, but I just feel like we have a better chance with SA.  I would definitely lynch J Reggie, but he isn't my first option, or even my second option.

In my eyes, iguana and faust and schadd are townie.  Then order of scumminess is SA>Joseph>J Reggie>LaLight>WW

PPEs

It's annoying to quibble about something like that at all when the scum team could very well just be Joseph/Space/Reggie.

[Witherweaver]

I don't really like the way WW is playing this, but uh that usually means that he's town.

<3

[iguanaiguana]

We must kill the scummiest scum today! We can't settle for second or third scummiest until tomorrow!

[gkrieg13]

Can everyone read the like 6 short posts that J Reggie has made so far in D3 and tell me with a straight face that they are not super scummy?

I would go for scummy, but not super scummy. 

[Joseph2302]

Can everyone read the like 6 short posts that J Reggie has made so far in D3 and tell me with a straight face that they are not super scummy?

I would go for scummy, but not super scummy.

Reasonably scummy

[schadd]

I believe WW. Why, on a night that no one died, would scum fakeclaim using one shot of a vigilante power? That makes no sense. It wouldn't even occur to them. The only reason to claim something like that is if it actually happened. If WW is faking that claim, I congratulate him for being very creative.

in the case that the scums know that there are between 2 and 3 PRs, they might have elected to not use the strongman in order to gather information, and when faust didn't die (you're welcome, maybe) that was an all-clear that it is CEM and there are no vigilantes, and thus no-one to contest the vig thing.

ww becomes an IC, and our sense of the PRs is thrown off if we believe him (maybe we would eventually deduce it out, but i don't see how, at least until more people die).

[SpaceAnemone]

Hi. Well, I think the chance that both WW and Space are town is quite low, given my survival.

From my point of view, the two questions are somewhat independent, so conditioning the likelihood on your survival is pretty much irrelevant.

If WW is a vig, he was almost certainly a lucky block by scum, because town has a rather low likelihood of having a RB, whereas scum is guaranteed one (since we know we have at least two non-T rolls in the setup).
 
If WW is not a vig, he's pretty much guaranteed to be scum. I guess him being scum makes scum slightly more likely overall to do clever things, since he's an experienced player, but that's about the only way the vig thing and the faust-not-being-dead thing should be correlated, I think.

The question of why you're not dead revolves around what the town doctor(s) or possible RB were up to, and on whether the scum made some form of mistake (like not getting their kill together on time, as WW suggested).

Argh.. lots of PPEs to go back to. Sorry!

[LaLight]

actually, @igu has a point.

vote: JReggie

say something.

[Witherweaver]

Hi. Well, I think the chance that both WW and Space are town is quite low, given my survival.

 
If WW is not a vig, he's pretty much guaranteed to be scum.

What, like I would fake claim Vig as town?!

[Joseph2302]

Hi. Well, I think the chance that both WW and Space are town is quite low, given my survival.

 
If WW is not a vig, he's pretty much guaranteed to be scum.

What, like I would fake claim Vig as town?!

Agree, seems like a barbaric claim, and would just screw up all the town information.
I think it's an unlikely scum fakeclaim as well.

[Joseph2302]

And I'm busy this weekend, so will be LA

[schadd]

i'm ice skating rn

[Witherweaver]

i'm ice skating rn

While posting?

[schadd]

i'm ice skating rn

While posting?

don't tell my mom

[J Reggie]

I'm with family all weekend so won't be able to post much. I should reread Joseph. He's starting to remind me of himself in duel mafia. I keep getting caught up on the fact that he always gets mislynched. Also ii is tunneling me again,

[Witherweaver]

I prefer Space above the other options.. the reaction sounds like someone that's caught, and what's more suspicious about it is that it isn't actually "caught".  (I mean I don't have an actual guilty result.)  I'd be okay with Joseph, hm.. I guess okay with Iguana.. J Reggie I don't really know, I guess okay there.  I suppose I've gone town on Gkrieg.  I don't see a compelling reason to doubt Schadd's claim.  Oh, and there's LaLight.  He's kind of around J Reggie.  I guess my lynch order looks like:

Space
Joseph
{Iguana, J Reggie, LaLight} // don't really know how to order these
Schadd
Gkrieg

[iguanaiguana]

Vote: J Reggie

I'm tunneling him again.

[iguanaiguana]

Faust, when you on D1 said you believed both wagons were on town, did you have a reason?

I was super frustrated EoD1 trying to get what seemed like a great lynch through and Mail-mi did not strike me as scummy at-all : (

[Witherweaver]

Faust, when you on D1 said you believed both wagons were on town, did you have a reason?

I was super frustrated EoD1 trying to get what seemed like a great lynch through and Mail-mi did not strike me as scummy at-all : (

I can't explain why, but I felt that way too.  I think I even said so at some point.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 3.2:

SpaceAnemone (2): Witherweaver, gkrieg13
Witherweaver (1): faust
gkrieg13 (1): Joseph2302
J Reggie (2): LaLight, igu

Not Voting (3): SpaceAnemone, J Reggie, schadd

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends on October 9 at 10:00 a.m.

[faust]

Faust, when you on D1 said you believed both wagons were on town, did you have a reason?

I was super frustrated EoD1 trying to get what seemed like a great lynch through and Mail-mi did not strike me as scummy at-all : (

General feeling. I did not investigate an further. silverspawn agreed, if that's helping.

[iguanaiguana]

Faust, when you on D1 said you believed both wagons were on town, did you have a reason?

I was super frustrated EoD1 trying to get what seemed like a great lynch through and Mail-mi did not strike me as scummy at-all : (

General feeling. I did not investigate an further. silverspawn agreed, if that's helping.

Any comment on how the PoE is by now overwhelmingly in favor of him being scum?