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[SpaceAnemone]

I'm not scum! People's reads on me seemed high-variance at the end of D2, so it's not surprising that a vig who's really suspicious of me would target me in the night. There's a chance we're both town.

The me not dying thing is more confusing, and points to the existence of a role-blocker, but I'd guess it's more likely to be a town RB, given that a bunch of us were suspicious of WW and had voted for him.

[LaLight]

So we have only schadd and iguana who didn't post since the beginning of D3.

[SpaceAnemone]

Note that it's possible that scums only have a 1-shot strongman, e.g. if the roll was M, V, C, D (with possible E instead of the C and D). They could have used that up already, or be saving it for later.

[SpaceAnemone]

Note that it's possible that scums only have a 1-shot strongman, e.g. if the roll was M, V, C, D (with possible E instead of the C and D). They could have used that up already, or be saving it for later.

No, wait.. that doesn't work! If there's a B in there too, then we have at most one T, and therefore they have a strongman.

[LaLight]

Note that it's possible that scums only have a 1-shot strongman, e.g. if the roll was M, V, C, D (with possible E instead of the C and D). They could have used that up already, or be saving it for later.

No =) If we have 4 letters other than T they definitely have a strongman.


Scum Roles (In addition to the Godfather)
TTTTTT*** = Goon x2
TTTTT*** = Goon x2
TTTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TT = Strongman; Roleblocker
T = Strongman; Roleblocker
0 Ts = Strongman; Roleblocker; 1-Shot Bulletproof****

[SpaceAnemone]

Note that it's possible that scums only have a 1-shot strongman, e.g. if the roll was M, V, C, D (with possible E instead of the C and D). They could have used that up already, or be saving it for later.

No, wait.. that doesn't work! If there's a B in there too, then we have at most one T, and therefore they have a strongman.

Though it works if the role-blocking came from scum. Apologies for having a conversation with myself here... the fact that everything is happening so quickly has me worried that I'll get quick-lynched before being able to say useful stuff!

[Witherweaver]

We definitely have 4 PRs:

Mason (at least one)
1-Shot Vig (me)
1-Shot Cop (RR)
Doctor/Blocker to prevent kill last night (Faust)

Which means we are TT or less, so scum has full Strongman.  And, therefore, we need one more Doctor/Blocker to block the kill.

[Witherweaver]

I mean, unless scum didn't kill last night.  This actually happened in Mistborn (we didn't submit by the deadline).

[SpaceAnemone]

Note that it's possible that scums only have a 1-shot strongman, e.g. if the roll was M, V, C, D (with possible E instead of the C and D). They could have used that up already, or be saving it for later.

No =) If we have 4 letters other than T they definitely have a strongman.


Scum Roles (In addition to the Godfather)
TTTTTT*** = Goon x2
TTTTT*** = Goon x2
TTTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TT = Strongman; Roleblocker
T = Strongman; Roleblocker
0 Ts = Strongman; Roleblocker; 1-Shot Bulletproof****

Yeah, you're right. Let me think through the implications more carefully before throwing accusations around, but it might mean that WW is definitely scum from my PoV :-)

[LaLight]

We definitely have 4 PRs:

Mason (at least one)
1-Shot Vig (me)
1-Shot Cop (RR)
Doctor/Blocker to prevent kill last night (Faust)

Which means we are TT or less, so scum has full Strongman.  And, therefore, we need one more Doctor/Blocker to block the kill.

And this means we have no UB we need MMM to have two masons.

[SpaceAnemone]

I mean, unless scum didn't kill last night.  This actually happened in Mistborn (we didn't submit by the deadline).

I'd assume that if there are three of them, one of the scums would remember to do something at least! Any of them can actually do the NK, can't they? Or if there's a Strongman scum, does that particular person have to give the order?

[Witherweaver]

We definitely have 4 PRs:

Mason (at least one)
1-Shot Vig (me)
1-Shot Cop (RR)
Doctor/Blocker to prevent kill last night (Faust)

Which means we are TT or less, so scum has full Strongman.  And, therefore, we need one more Doctor/Blocker to block the kill.

And this means we have no UB we need MMM to have two masons.

No, read the setup.  UB is converted to Mason if there is one M roll.

[SpaceAnemone]

We definitely have 4 PRs:

Mason (at least one)
1-Shot Vig (me)
1-Shot Cop (RR)
Doctor/Blocker to prevent kill last night (Faust)

Which means we are TT or less, so scum has full Strongman.  And, therefore, we need one more Doctor/Blocker to block the kill.

And this means we have no UB we need MMM to have two masons.

The chance of having a UB in the game was tiny already.. like less than 1 in 20. I think I posted the calculation sometime early in the game.

[Witherweaver]

We definitely have 4 PRs:

Mason (at least one)
1-Shot Vig (me)
1-Shot Cop (RR)
Doctor/Blocker to prevent kill last night (Faust)

Which means we are TT or less, so scum has full Strongman.  And, therefore, we need one more Doctor/Blocker to block the kill.

And this means we have no UB we need MMM to have two masons.

The chance of having a UB in the game was tiny already.. like less than 1 in 20. I think I posted the calculation sometime early in the game.

There is always a UB... and UB converting to Mason is more likely than there being another M roll, obviously.

[SpaceAnemone]

We definitely have 4 PRs:

Mason (at least one)
1-Shot Vig (me)
1-Shot Cop (RR)
Doctor/Blocker to prevent kill last night (Faust)

Which means we are TT or less, so scum has full Strongman.  And, therefore, we need one more Doctor/Blocker to block the kill.

And this means we have no UB we need MMM to have two masons.

No, read the setup.  UB is converted to Mason if there is one M roll.

I assume he means no UB to inherit RR's role, because the UB spot was already used up being one of faust or Silver..

[Witherweaver]

I mean, unless scum didn't kill last night.  This actually happened in Mistborn (we didn't submit by the deadline).

I'd assume that if there are three of them, one of the scums would remember to do something at least! Any of them can actually do the NK, can't they? Or if there's a Strongman scum, does that particular person have to give the order?

In Mistborn there were five of us (maybe four that night, someone died), and we were mostly busy talking to each other, and then the deadline had passed.

Anyone can submit the order on behalf of another member.

[SpaceAnemone]

We definitely have 4 PRs:

Mason (at least one)
1-Shot Vig (me)
1-Shot Cop (RR)
Doctor/Blocker to prevent kill last night (Faust)

Which means we are TT or less, so scum has full Strongman.  And, therefore, we need one more Doctor/Blocker to block the kill.

And this means we have no UB we need MMM to have two masons.

The chance of having a UB in the game was tiny already.. like less than 1 in 20. I think I posted the calculation sometime early in the game.

There is always a UB... and UB converting to Mason is more likely than there being another M roll, obviously.

Yes, I think we're actually all agreeing here, just using different words.

[SpaceAnemone]

Let's assume that WW is a vig and shot me, and that scum were at least awake enough to target someone. The PR distribution in this scenario says that there will be a scum strongman in the game.

Faust was protected by 2 different doctors, so didn't die.
Or Faust wasn't targeted because the scums forgot.
Or scums were blocked, but it would need to be twice. Or one block and one doctor.

WW was role-blocked, either by town or by scum, because someone doctoring me seems really highly unlikely.
We must have M, V, C/E for cop, DDD or DDE or DEE for doctors, or DDB for a role-blocker, or DBB for doctor and two roleblockers.

People RBing WW seems reasonably likely, given that he was under suspicion from more people than just me.
A doctor and a one-shot doctor doctoring faust last night seems reasonably likely.
A town role-blocker who blocked someone other than WW last night was almost certianly targetting scum.

If any scums RBd WW, they should probably come out and say so, since that's the only thing that might break this reasoning a bit... :-)

[schadd]

hey, seems good a time as any.


i am sophie, the 1-shot doctor. i saved faust last night

[Joseph2302]

We're full claiming, right?
I'm catching up slowly and badly on my phone.

[Witherweaver]

We're full claiming, right?
I'm catching up slowly and badly on my phone.

No.

[Witherweaver]

I claimed because it made sense; presumably schadd thought he should as well.

[iguanaiguana]

Welp, yall a bunch of crazies and I don't know what I think yet. It smells an awful lot like I'm getting mislynched today and that sucks.

[Witherweaver]

Welp, yall a bunch of crazies and I don't know what I think yet. It smells an awful lot like I'm getting mislynched today and that sucks.

... because no one has said anything about you?

[Witherweaver]

That has to be the single least genuine opening of a day I've ever read, with the exception of maybe Xerxes' "I may be the only town left".