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[SpaceAnemone]

there's other stuff that makes me feel like you have a much better handle on things than you're saying

thank you

Haha, don't thank me yet... One thing that's making me quite suspicious is that you have the only use of the word "townslip" in this entire thread, which isn't really a very newbie sort of thing to come out with unless you were coached in a scum QT or something...

that is a term that i came up with while pooping. is it a real thing?

The term is certainly something that I've seen talked about around here, and your post didn't give me the impression you were overtly attempting to coin a new term.

What do the rest of you think about it?

[schadd]

Things here should be simple enough to do actual probabilistic analysis without needing all that frequentist assume-everything-is-Gaussian nonsense :-P

i mean, gauss made everything in His image, but you know. there is probably data to make some simple and weird conclusions about the people that have played >30 games here, like, s-a copy-pastes from an excel spreadsheet is weakly correlated with them being town (p=.08)

[schadd]

your post didn't give me the impression you were overtly attempting to coin a new term.

ohohoho. this is the part where schadnd becomes required reading

[SpaceAnemone]

I guess there is no use delaying this, because mafia probably will figure it out and it will only cost us time today.

I am silverspawn's partner.

This should be obvious to anyone rereading D1.

So you know whether or not there is a UB, right?

As far as I understand, I will only know at the start of the next night.

Is that actually how it works? With a single "M" roll in the setup, it says that the UB converts to Mason without the UB player being informed. The word "convert" implies to me that they're no longer also a backup. Is that not how it works?

It also says that the UB replaces a 1-shot PR that dies, but it doesn't say anything about it replacing a Mason if they get killed. There's actually only about a 4.3% chance that there's a UB still in the game, given the existence of at least one pair of Masons, assuming they stop existing as UB if they do the conversion thing.

(Binomial distribution with N=6 and p=0.1, taking out the x=0 and x=2 options and renormalizing to obtain a new distribution, at which point x=1 is >95%).

[Witherweaver]

(seriously guys, where's the ANOVA?)

Analysis of Variance?

yes

Things here should be simple enough to do actual probabilistic analysis without needing all that frequentist assume-everything-is-Gaussian nonsense :-P

Since someone was talking about the set-up above, I started thinking in a bit too much detail about whether the fact we have two masons tells us anything about the distribution of the scum team. It does, but it doesn't skew the overall histogram of setup possibilities very much, so I'll resist the temptation to post mathsy stuff just now. I have thoughts and a nifty little script, though, if anyone would like any likelihoods computed later on..

Don't start, please.

[Roadrunner7671]

Okay, this isn't happening but I wanted to ask because I noticed myself doing it with mail-mi in Olympics Mafia.

Is it unethical to use information from other, non-mafia threads? Like if Adrian and tristan suddenly started agreeing in RSP and they were both in this game could someone present that as evidence for a case?

[iguanaiguana]

I'm done playing this game. I'll sheep silver until LyLo including on myself. Otherwise just checking in once a day to post.

I don't know what happened, but if ou plan on not playing the game, you would do all of us a service by asking ashersky to be replaced.

I'm just VLA for the week and the game got uninteresting because you're a mason and you were my only scum read and I don't have time to reread or rethink now.

Also, on the replacement thing, nah.

[Joseph2302]

there's other stuff that makes me feel like you have a much better handle on things than you're saying

thank you

Haha, don't thank me yet... One thing that's making me quite suspicious is that you have the only use of the word "townslip" in this entire thread, which isn't really a very newbie sort of thing to come out with unless you were coached in a scum QT or something...

that is a term that i came up with while pooping. is it a real thing?

Yes it's a real term.

[Joseph2302]

having read the rules, it says that dead players can't post anywhere except in their role qt. can ss still say stuff in the mason qt? that seems like it would be kinda silly


also, for the life of me i can't find where the rules might say how many people die each night.

No dead masons can't post in the QT.

[ashersky]

Vote Count 2.1:

Not Voting (10): Witherweaver, LaLight, gkrieg13, faust, Roadrunner7671, Joseph2302, SpaceAnemone, J Reggie, schadd, iguanaiguana

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 ends on September 28 at 4:00 a.m. forum time.

[faust]

So, the weekend is over, and it's time for ou guys to put in some work, make cases, and such things. I have thoughts, but I will not reveal them. Instead, I want everyone to take the following pledge:

"If there is no lynch 12 hours before deadline, I will vote for whoever faust decides we should lynch."

[Witherweaver]

Okay, this isn't happening but I wanted to ask because I noticed myself doing it with mail-mi in Olympics Mafia.

Is it unethical to use information from other, non-mafia threads? Like if Adrian and tristan suddenly started agreeing in RSP and they were both in this game could someone present that as evidence for a case?

It's not wrong, but it's as awful use of the word 'evidence' as you see in those RSP forums.

I recommend ignoring any behavior outside of non-mafia threads.  There isn't enough information to differentiate between legitimate, circumstantial, and intentional misdirection.

[LaLight]

So, the weekend is over, and it's time for ou guys to put in some work, make cases, and such things. I have thoughts, but I will not reveal them. Instead, I want everyone to take the following pledge:

"If there is no lynch 12 hours before deadline, I will vote for whoever faust decides we should lynch."

/pledge I think. You're experienced and IC.

[Witherweaver]

Rereading Space.  Alsmost no content D1, until:

My reads are problematically mostly null or very mild, but here there are anyway.

Witherweaver -- Null (still overconfident/sarky, though!)
LaLight -- Still very newbie!town.
silverspawn -- Null.. He has a lot of short posts I can't really get my teeth into.
gkrieg13 -- Mild town (and I have sympathy with him having put this on the back burner spend time trying to win BSG, even though he actually killed me!)
faust -- Null so far, leaning mild town.
Roadrunner7671 -- I don't even know.
Joseph2302 -- Mild town
SpaceAnemone -- Spaaaaaaaaaace!
J Reggie -- Null. Some bits of him seem scummy, but other bits seem quite towny.
schadd -- Mild scum maybe, if he knows people here from other forum interactions?
iguanaiguana -- Towny.
mail-mi -- Mild scum. I did just come from a game where he was scum, and he seems really similar.

There are newbies in the game, so the little bit of fluff earlier was really welcome as far as I'm concerned, because it's too hard to engage with the rest of you discussing people's meta when I haven't quite formed my own opinion of most people here. I don't think interacting with people is a bad thing to encourage to make sure stuff keeps happening in D1.

@JReggie: Howcome nobody's made you add unique text to your profile to make you easier to search for?

I'm going to vote: Mail-mi because mild scum is the best I've come up with, and my other scumread is a newbie.

(Though did put a vote on me before that.)

This somewhat mitigates my scum read; I would expect (especially new) scum to force some more scum reads.  The general null read is somewhat natural at this point in the game.  Odd is the single "townie" on Iguana.  Notably, that was also Space's RSP vote:

Good morning all!
Vote: iguana

Comments on J Reggie wagon without taking stance:

Huh, I'm still not understanding the J Reggie wagon at all, even though I think a bunch of strong people are backing it. I'm unlikely to move my vote there unless someone can break the case down into newbie-speak for me.

Faust's tone in his posts from earlier today seems oddly hostile and defensive, which makes me lean a bit more scum-wards on him than my reads yesterday.

@Iguana: what are your reasons for thinking that Mail-mi is a town? I feel like he's at least a bit scummy.

Very little else.  Not sure it's the best lynch, but not a bad one.

[gkrieg13]

So, the weekend is over, and it's time for ou guys to put in some work, make cases, and such things. I have thoughts, but I will not reveal them. Instead, I want everyone to take the following pledge:

"If there is no lynch 12 hours before deadline, I will vote for whoever faust decides we should lynch."

Don't we still have plurality lynch?  I would definitely do this once we don't have plurality lynch. Not so sure before then

[faust]

I'm just a town with some mildly funny flavor text actually.

Tell me about your flavor text.

[faust]

WW, are you ignoring my pledge?

[Roadrunner7671]

/tentative pledge

[Witherweaver]

WW, are you ignoring my pledge?

I had read it as we should come up with stuff or pledge to sheep you.  I'm taking the former. 

[faust]

WW, are you ignoring my pledge?

I had read it as we should come up with stuff or pledge to sheep you.  I'm taking the former.

You read it wrong. Which is strange, I thought I had made myself pretty clear.

[Witherweaver]

And I wouldn't really pledge such a thing anyway.  Though there is a decent chance I'd end up voting with you.

[J Reggie]

So, the weekend is over, and it's time for ou guys to put in some work, make cases, and such things. I have thoughts, but I will not reveal them. Instead, I want everyone to take the following pledge:

"If there is no lynch 12 hours before deadline, I will vote for whoever faust decides we should lynch."

Heck no. You may be IC but I still hella disagree with you on things.

[Joseph2302]

So, the weekend is over, and it's time for ou guys to put in some work, make cases, and such things. I have thoughts, but I will not reveal them. Instead, I want everyone to take the following pledge:

"If there is no lynch 12 hours before deadline, I will vote for whoever faust decides we should lynch."

/pledge
Although hopefully we'll have more meaningful discussion than just sheep the IC

[Joseph2302]

I trust faust as IC, and it seems like his reads are better than mine right now.

[Witherweaver]

I trust faust as IC, and it seems like his reads are better than mine right now.

The reads he's not sharing?