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Author Topic: What's the card your best at?  (Read 10418 times)

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Limetime

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What's the card your best at?
« on: June 01, 2016, 09:55:15 pm »
0

For me I think i am best at governor. Love the card and all the interesting decisions. When watching streams of govorner games I am like no, don't get a gold remodel that silver into a govorner and buy another one.
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jsh357

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2016, 10:00:15 pm »
+5

Transmute
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Jimmmmm

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2016, 10:03:17 pm »
0

Bishop might be one. I often will get Bishops later than my opponent and end up with more tokens from them.
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J Reggie

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2016, 10:09:14 pm »
+1

Miser. Also I feel like I win more than not in Cultist and Urchin mirrors.

Edit: this is my 222nd post, and that's my lucky number!
« Last Edit: June 01, 2016, 10:22:58 pm by J Reggie »
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2016, 10:15:49 pm »
+1

Probably Scout.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2016, 10:22:28 pm »
0

Probably Scout.

Really? You?
I feel like I'm the only one who plays Scout well, but if I mamaged to convince everyone in the world as to my views of Scout, they would probably be able to utilize my strategy better than me.
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Aleimon Thimble

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2016, 02:39:35 am »
+1

I win almost every Herald board since I'm one of the few people who acknowledge its true power.  8)

Unfortunately, for every Herald there are at least four cards I completely suck at. Black Market, Rebuild, Possession, Tactician...
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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2016, 03:14:09 am »
0

Last time I checked the actual statistics, it was Bridge, but it's been a while since then.
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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2016, 03:17:05 am »
+2

Somehow I think I might be OK with Possession (will probably lose next 666 Possession games and then die in pain screaming for mercy).

brokoli

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2016, 04:50:49 am »
0

For a long time I was very good with duke, I think its power was not well known.
Now I'm not bad with harvest or farmland.

I don't know why, but seems like I'm very bad with butcher. But that's another topic I guess.
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dedicateddan

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2016, 05:57:44 am »
+4

Black Market. I would play every game with that card in the kingdom if I could
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Chris is me

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2016, 07:33:57 am »
0

Highway! Or maybe Gear.
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Joseph2302

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Re: What's the card you're best at?
« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2016, 08:03:58 am »
+10

Scout- I always know exactly when to buy it.

Never!
« Last Edit: June 04, 2016, 02:31:18 am by Joseph2302 »
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AdrianHealey

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2016, 09:21:11 am »
0

I am really getting the hand of the entire page line, I feel.
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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2016, 09:38:54 am »
0

Golem, Lookout, Procession, and for reasons unexplainable to me, Merchant Guild.

Tombolo

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2016, 10:17:48 am »
0

Hoard
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wachsmuth

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2016, 10:23:50 am »
+1

Are there any statistics easily available for this for someone like me who has only been around for Making Fun?

My guess would be Beggar. I seem to win most of the time when I buy that card, which I also believe I do significantly more often than most other people.

Other cards I suspect I do well with: Urchin, Ill-Gotten Gains, Explorer

Cards I suspect I do poorly with: Bishop, Tunnel, Market Square, Highway

I am very bad at determining when gaining Gold in a weird way via Tunnel or Market Square is good.
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Infthitbox

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #17 on: June 02, 2016, 10:32:29 am »
0

I just ran my stats across all professional games recorded by gokosalvager.

Here's the google doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fEm6TtcqLWrqq5ksaOdEXnXEn9FfDWaShpwtnuxLvWA/edit?usp=sharing

Note that games present is games where its in the supply; the "discrepancy" with Gear isn't a discrepancy: I lost a game where I bought it out of the Black Market deck; but haven't lost with it otherwise. 

By looking at the base cards, I have a score % ((1 * wins + 0.5 * draws) / games played)) of 65%. The non-Adventures card I have the highest score percentage with is Great Hall, at 85%. Weird. I tend to buy it in those games as well.

As for actually buying the cards, I've apparently won every game (extremely small sample size) in which I've bought Stash, Harvest, Coppersmith, Duchess, and Bureaucrat (again excluding Adventures, my win rates are very high with those cards). For cards that I actually have played > 10 games with, buying Embargo, Herbalist, and Scrying Pool all lead to 90+ win rates for  me in rated games. Interesting.

On the flip side, my win rates when buying Count, Native Village, Trader, Horse Traders, Advisor, and Workshop are all <40%.

By the way, my extremely simple methodology of computing this means that Knights aren't calculated correctly for being bought, but they are for being in the supply.

Also, no, I can't easily extend this to anyone who asks.
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Limetime

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #18 on: June 02, 2016, 10:34:55 am »
0

How do you run the stats for others?
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Infthitbox

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2016, 02:19:49 pm »
+2

How do you run the stats for others?

Well, first you download all your game logs from gokosalvager, then you parse them, noting for each game what cards appeared and what the result of the game was. Then you aggregate all that information, and generate stats. Part of this process for me was manual, because I was lazy and didn't feel like parsing the list of game logs off the log search in the same script that I used to then download them all. Instead, I just ran some javascript in my browser's developer console that got me the list of game log files, which I then copy pasted out into a file, which my fetcher script then read and downloaded all the logs. Then I used another script to parse them and generate the csv, which I imported into google docs.

Creating a general use tool wouldn't be that difficult, if people wanted it (and I could find a place to host it).
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E.Honda

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #20 on: June 02, 2016, 02:24:02 pm »
+1

How do you run the stats for others?

Well, first you download all your game logs from gokosalvager, then you parse them, noting for each game what cards appeared and what the result of the game was. Then you aggregate all that information, and generate stats. Part of this process for me was manual, because I was lazy and didn't feel like parsing the list of game logs off the log search in the same script that I used to then download them all. Instead, I just ran some javascript in my browser's developer console that got me the list of game log files, which I then copy pasted out into a file, which my fetcher script then read and downloaded all the logs. Then I used another script to parse them and generate the csv, which I imported into google docs.

Creating a general use tool wouldn't be that difficult, if people wanted it (and I could find a place to host it).

I think a General use Tool would be really nice and much appreciated if you have the time and will to do it :)
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #21 on: June 02, 2016, 03:00:36 pm »
+1

Back when TheExpressicist's tool was available for grabbing player stats from the Goko implementation, I looked at my win % with various cards (but not looking at the cards I almost never bought) and it looked a lot like what I got if I took my overall win % and just did random simulations of sets of 200 games or whatever. I didn't do anything particularly rigorous, but I'm not convinced that the higher or lower win percentages with a particular card are anything but just the noise from our small sample sizes.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2016, 03:16:14 pm »
0

I'm more curious about what cards I'm not good at and why I'm not good at them.
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JW

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2016, 03:25:44 pm »
0

Back when TheExpressicist's tool was available for grabbing player stats from the Goko implementation, I looked at my win % with various cards (but not looking at the cards I almost never bought) and it looked a lot like what I got if I took my overall win % and just did random simulations of sets of 200 games or whatever. I didn't do anything particularly rigorous, but I'm not convinced that the higher or lower win percentages with a particular card are anything but just the noise from our small sample sizes.

I find it likely that it's not just noise about your overall win %. A calculation by rrenaud in 2012 on how much certain cards favor more skilled players finds that some cards favor more skilled players more than others.

Since you're one of the best players, you're more skilled than your typical opponent by quite a bit. Therefore, we'd expect to find that you win more often with the cards at the top of the list in a calculation like rrenaud's.  Edit: If we grouped you and fellow players with similar ratings and did card win %s for the group, we'd have much bigger sample sizes and could probably tell that the card win %s are different for different cards. But we couldn't necessarily tell to what extent you differ from Stef who differs from SCSN, etc.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2016, 04:09:23 pm by JW »
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Dingan

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Re: What's the card your best at?
« Reply #24 on: June 02, 2016, 03:33:18 pm »
+4

I'm pretty good with Provinces, especially when I have most of them.

Honestly though, maybe Scrying Pool?  I think I'm pretty good at recognizing when it's skippable.  (But watch me go lose against it a bunch now...)
« Last Edit: June 02, 2016, 03:36:12 pm by Dingan »
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