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[Seprix]

These were the most important events of D1:

> Joseph gets himself in trouble
> e jumps in to save him with an incredibly lame reason, exposing himself to the town firing squad

Why would e do this? It could be a gamble, as scum!e may have assumed Joseph would have died today, making him get some town cred. If Joseph!scum & e!scum, e would not sink his ship like this D1. Joseph!scum & e!town makes no sense either, regarding his reasoning for voting. It seems incredibly fake. I want an e lynch now, for sure.

When Joseph gets lynched as scum, he just tells people he's scum. See this post in Harry Potter Mafia II. Joseph's annoyed response to thinking he got hammered is consistent with his town meta, not his scum meta, and that makes him a bad vote for today.I'm even ready to say regardless of what else he may say today.

I also think Joseph is innocent as a result, and this evidence by Iguana only makes me feel more confident in my read. I don't think Joseph could get ultra meta and change his playstyle based on past events. If he could, why is he still sticking his neck out like this every game with self voting and incredibly sheeping posts?

Look at these posts e has made:

Just realized an autocorrect error in my post above. "Want" is supposed to be "wasn't"

Basically, I don't think Joseph was "cracking under pressure." I think he made a scummy post or two and so I am voting for him because I think he is scum

...and right after...

Fake hammers are scummy

Vote: gkrieg

If e thought Joseph was scum, why not just go with the fake hammer? Why so down on it? This is incredibly damning evidence.

The key here is that e is behaving differently than he usually does in a game and it is plausible to see a scum narrative for this change in his behavior.

Usually e is pretty involved and comes up with pretty elaborate reads. Here he's just voting for people for obvious things, the sort of things that scum would like to try to mislynch a player for because it looks scummy even though there is no real scum narrative for it.

His two early votes against Awaclus are really just votes against things that people always find Awaclus scummy for, not things that Awaclus actually does as scum.
His early vote against ADK is just defensive hogwash.
His early vote against Gkrieg is reactionary -- Voting Gkrieg for 'pretending not to have looked at the game yet.' It's the kind of thing that people don't like to see, and therefore will vote a person for but not the sort of thing scum actually does.
His first vote against Joseph is a vote against Joseph's annoying play, voting him for asking "who wins if we lynch the mod?" Again, there's no real scum narrative for that. I know this is debatable, but I would argue that e is one of the scummiest votes on Joseph at this point.
He then votes off of Joseph onto PPS for bad reasons and then returns to PPS for similarly bad reasons.
And then the final vote on Gkrieg that has been thoroughly explained by others. My 2cents: Gkrieg's fakehammer is the sort of thing that annoys people, but not good scum play. Therefore its the sort of thing that people will vote for someone for doing.

The lengthy case against e. Actual arguments in bold for legibility. Non-arguments not bolded for reference and context, as quotes generally are used for.

[J Reggie]

The case against e is pretty good here. He's at L-2, right? If one more person votes for him I'll hammer. I think that'd be pretty cool, it being my first day and all. I'd like to be hammering scum on my first day.

[2.71828.....]

The case against e is pretty good here. He's at L-2, right? If one more person votes for him I'll hammer. I think that'd be pretty cool, it being my first day and all. I'd like to be hammering scum on my first day.

Then don't hammer me. Headed home from work now, so be just a little more patient

[Roadrunner7671]

In some parts of the world, monkeys are used to harvest coconuts!

Vote Count 1.2
Gkrieg13 (2): 2.7, Joseph
Iguanaiguana (1): J Reggie
Joseph (4): Awaclus, ADK, PPS, chairs
2.7 (5): silverspawn, Iguanaiguana, gkrieg13, Seprix, Haddock

With 13 alive it takes seven to lynch. Day one ends May 18th at ~3:00 PM

[Seprix]

e is a coconut. Let us harvest him.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I don't really like the case on e, at least not as much as I like voting for joseph.

[2.71828.....]

tl;dr vote: iguanaiguana


So now, once I have convinced you all that I am town, we will need an alternate wagon to explore.  Let me look around at those alternate wagon's before I convince you that I am town.  To do that, let's look at my very own wagon since I hope there is at least one scum on it: silverspawn, Iguanaiguana, gkrieg13, Seprix, Haddock

silverspawn - Read through and here are the highlights of what I found interesting.  Has this early vote on me because I "endorse" the scumslip argument that Reggie is making.  Jokes about not reading the setup, agrees with ADK giving him a town read, and votes gkrieg based on ADK's argument.  Then switches back to me based on the "fakehammers are townie" argument. 

score: 4.3/10 - somewhat scummy.  The earlier, sheepy stuff doesn't read like town!silverspawn, and voting for me because "fakehammers are townie" is fairly lazy.  While I can totally see how he knee-jerk reactioned into that vote (similar to how I knee-jerked into voting for gkrieg because of the fake hammer) I think that overall silver has not been that great this game and could totally see him being scum

iguanaiguana - creates the first case one me.  I mean, before the whole fakehammer incident.  He voted for me first in a vote-only post, then a while later actually built a little case.  (opportunistic voting) Not sure if he RVSed me then decided I was actually scummy, or always had that case in mind.  Either way, seems relatively townie of him.  He seems pretty firm with his case, but then when Joseph starts doing his thing switches right over to Joseph.  After my gkrieg vote he switches firmly back over to me and hasn't moved.  He even builds a nice little case on me. 

score: 3.2/10 - His case is built around "opportunistic voting."  This sounds like a great little pseudo-case that scum might try to push in order to get a lynch through while looking legit.  But worse still was how he switched to Joseph then back on me.  That Joseph lynch was too easy.  I mean, just too easy.  Jumping on Joseph arouses no suspicion, no worries.  Easily explained away the next day or later.  Then when the winds blew back a different (and in iguana's mind a very nice) direction it was too easy to go right back on me.  I think iguana might be a good place to start looking for scum

gkrieg - Opens up nicely with some good old-fashioned RVS, then moves right into a small little reads list.  You know, the one ADK and silver found him scummy for.  Well, I got town vibes from it.  Votes Joseph after Joseph jokes about being scum, and sticks there for a while.  Pretty intent on the lynch, I mean, he even fakehammers Joseph!  He immediately votes for me after I call him out for the fakehammer, and has stuck on me without adding too much else otherwise.

score: 6.4/10 - So, that fakehammer feels more and more like town to me.  Having a couple days break, thinking through all of what silverspawn has mentioned, yeah.  Fakehammers are not necessarily scummy.  I still don't like them.  But the way he did his fakehammer and then switched right to me feels genuine enough.  If Joseph ever does flip scum then we will obviously have to re-evaluate, because that fake-hammer is what dissolved (well, I guess people are still voting joseph) Joseph's wagon.

Seprix - Early defender of Joseph.  Transistioning over to passionate fight to bring me down.  I love it.  I love the case, and think you are town for it.  Nothing is more exciting than that feeling that you have caught scum.  And town are usually the ones to catch that feeling.  So I like a town read here on Seprix

score: 9.2/10 - genuine, heartfelt, townie.

Haddock - Is against the Joseph wagon, notices silver as slightly scummy followed by a vote.  He is tricked by gkrieg's tricksy little fakehammer here, and has some townie posts in "twilight."  He then sheeps the case against me, and generally exists without too much of a presence this game.

score: 7.0/10 - I would love to see him revisit the case against silverspawn. I could probably be persuaded to look in that direction.  Has seemed generally lazy, but not scummy.  More town than scum for now.

[2.71828.....]

Now, the case on me is two things:

1) I don't like fakehammers

2) I have a bunch of "lazy" votes

First of all, the whole fakehammer thing.  I think iguana sums that up fairly nicely:

And then the final vote on Gkrieg that has been thoroughly explained by others. My 2cents: Gkrieg's fakehammer is the sort of thing that annoys people, but not good scum play. Therefore its the sort of thing that people will vote for someone for doing.

It is the sort of thing that people will vote for someone for doing.  And gkrieg pulled me in and got me.  The question becomes, did he get scum in his nice little trap?  No.  I think if you look at a vast majority of mafia games you will find that it is town, not scum, who fall into these sorts of "traps" way more often than scum.  And get mislynched for it.  Time and time again.  No, I am not going to go through and find historical data for such broad and sweeping claims, but it is the case.  Do scum get caught?  Sure, happens.  But are they more careful and less prone to an emotional knee-jerk reactionary vote?  Yes.  (for me at least)

As an aside, great reason for why my vote was not scummy iguana.  Yet you are still voting for me.  Its almost as if you think I am the easiest mislynch right now.....

Now on to point number two.  Yes, my votes have been sporadic.  You might even say "opportunistic."  (Although when is a vote not opportunistic?)  You say I am playing against my meta.  I am playing a random game that breaks out of the mold.  But does that mean I am scum? silverspawn has it right:

>case on e<

That is not a bad case, but the question is: would e really be so banana-y as scum? Isn't a thoughtless town the more likely scenario?

I might modify that a bit and rather than thoughtless town (although that might apply to the gkrieg vote) I would say rather care-free town.  Town not afraid of incurring a lynch on D1.  Town enjoying his power.  (his vote).  Take it for what you will, but this is not scum!e, but rather town!e

[2.71828.....]

And now I sit here and wait.  Freakin West Coast US.  Absolutely worst time zone to play mafia in.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Why don't you want to vote for joseph again?

[gkrieg13]

I would add to your case that you usually throw out town reads like candy, which you haven't been doing this game.

[2.71828.....]

I would add to your case that you usually throw out town reads like candy, which you haven't been doing this game.

Reggie is town if that helps.

[2.71828.....]

Why don't you want to vote for joseph again?

Uh....he wasn't on my list of people that I looked at. I can expand my scum hunt later to include him

[iguanaiguana]

Vote: e

[iguanaiguana]

oh wait

[Joseph2302]

So it's been pretty dead here after the crash. I'm hoping people won't get prods because of this. We still have heard very little from EgorK, chairs, and pps. What are your guys opinions on e?

As I understand it it's either e or Joseph and you see where my vote stands.

Both of which I don't think are great lynches.

Who do you think is a good lynch?

Maybe Gkrieg. He's the only other person with >1 vote, and I don't want me or e lynched, since I'm reasonably sure we're both town (I know I am).

[Joseph2302]

oh wait

That was L-1 right?

[iguanaiguana]

No, I'm already voting him. I was just expressing that I found his defense worthy of a fresh vote.

[Joseph2302]

No, I'm already voting him. I was just expressing that I found his defense worthy of a fresh vote.

Cool. Had it been an unannounced L-1, I'd probably have voted for you, as I find it very anti-town.
Not announcing L-1 leads to derphammers, which is bad.

[iguanaiguana]

iguanaiguana - creates the first case one me.  I mean, before the whole fakehammer incident.  He voted for me first in a vote-only post, then a while later actually built a little case.  (opportunistic voting) Not sure if he RVSed me then decided I was actually scummy, or always had that case in mind.  Either way, seems relatively townie of him.  He seems pretty firm with his case, but then when Joseph starts doing his thing switches right over to Joseph.  After my gkrieg vote he switches firmly back over to me and hasn't moved.  He even builds a nice little case on me. 

This is a ridiculous argument. Early in the gameday I didn't have time to make my case against e because of IRL events, so I placed a vote without making any case with the intention of making the case later. Also, I've been doing a bit of this semi-Awaclus thing where I don't explain my votes right away so that the people I'm voting for can give me more evidence to work with before I call them out. Later, I still didn't have much time and people were finding me scummy for voting with no stated reason, so I gave a short reason for voting e that summed up my feelings as "opportunistic voting." Finally, I laid out my case, which was still rushed, because I've still been busy most days, including today.

I've been on e the whole time, except for a point where Joseph claimed freakin' scum in the thread. That seemed worth a vote. When I thought about it a bit more, I realized that coming from Joseph that could very well be the sort of thing he does as town and very similar to when everyone thought he was scum in Soap Opera Mafia. Then people started pointing out that he's claimed scum as town before, so I decided he was a bad vote. Then I saw that Scummy McScummerson e was voting for him and I got the f off that wagon before Joseph was dead.

[Haddock]

I don't really like the case on e, at least not as much as I like voting for joseph.

e's reads thing makes him look a bit townier, but he's still a much better choice for a lynch than Joseph, as far as I can see...

score: 7.0/10 - I would love to see him revisit the case against silverspawn. I could probably be persuaded to look in that direction.  Has seemed generally lazy, but not scummy.  More town than scum for now.

Hmm.  Yeah I have been pretty lazy this game, apologies to everyone.  Definitely been meaning to reread silver, I'll do a brief one now. 
I'm not sure I entirely agree with your analysis of Seprix, but I've never played with him before.  I'll include him in my reread.

[Haddock]

ss reread turned into an everything reread.

vote: ss

Clearly scummy

Disagree.

Saw this as I was rereading.  This is a weird interaction for so early in the day, no?  Not sure what to make of it.  I mean, gkrieg's vote is clearly RVS, why is ADK picking him up for it?  And how has he already put a townread on ss?

This seems like a really super early push on e for a not-brilliant reason.

If you are making a case against me, please state it explicitly iguana

I think you're the best vote for now because you are voting for people opportunistically.

I don't think I like this post much:

So I popped in the thread earlier to see what people were saying, but I was busy with Mother's Day stuff, so instead I just plopped down an RVS vote on the first person I noticed when scrolling through the page, and that happened to be ss.

Anyway, on a different note, I'm surprised two people voted me for that.

JReggie seems townie, II seems aggressive, which I think is a town tell for him.

Awaclus is Awaclus

The self-vote from Joseph seems to be the strangest thing.  I don't know what it says about him though.  I'm not sure I've played a game where he has been scum before though, so I think I will let it be for now.

ss seems like he is trying to move the game along anyway.

Particularly the last.  ss has barely done anything at this point.  There's a couple of strange interactions between gkrieg and ss here.

I'm finding gkrieg's reads list to be scummy.

Hah! Great minds.

Vote: Haddock

Did you ever explain this, PPS?  Not sure what triggered it.  Come to think of it we've not heard from PPS in a while.

100% agree. town read on ADK and vote: gkrieg.

First interaction between gkrieg and ss that couldn't be construed as at all partnery.  I maybe take that stuff back about their weird interactions.  At least to some extent.

vote: Joseph

Bad vote.


Maybe my sense of what Awaclus is like is putting me off here, but why is it that this:

Vote: Joseph

Well, that was easy. I encourage the rest of the scum team to out themselves as well.

just looks like Awa being Awa to me, but this:

Anyway,

Vote: Joseph

looks opportunistic and scummy?


This is towny:

So it's L-1.

vote: Reggie

You may have miscounted, or maybe you haven't. Either way, this vote stays on until you back down.

What is this even supposed to mean?  He's on a great wagon!  A great L-1 too!

No, it's a terrible wagon. Joseph is the easiest target in the world.

and in fact yeah I'm generally liking Seprix from what I've seen so far.  Townpoints. 
Oh and some more great posts from Seprix shortly after.  Yes, firmly town, sorry to doubt you, e.

oh what wait. Didn't Joseph use to have a similar game where he kept joking about being scum? Or was that someone else? Does anyone remember?

He was town there. If it's Jospeh, I could see him doing it again as scum. If not, I'm not so hot about the lynch.

This seems like a good piece of thought.  Did anyone check this?

Vote: Joseph

Oh, I take it back, we HAVE heard from PPS lately.  Sigh.  How can we be expected to gets read off PPS based on two contentless vote-posts?  Is he VLA or something?
Wait, OK.  This is a legit good post from PPS:

One thing that also makes me feel scum on e is just how hard it is to get a wagon going on him today despite decent evidence. In general scum players are harder to wagon D1 because their partners don't want to join it unless it looks inevitable.

Disagree strongly. D1 is the best day to setup the distancing and dissonance. Also perfect time to setup the bus if needed later. It's getting them on the tail end of a wagon that is going to be hard. Getting them on early is very likely. The tell tale behavior are wagon jumpers when it gets heavy.

And there's another one from more recently. So yeah I take all that stuff back about PPS, sorry.


This is a decent post:

>case on e<

That is not a bad case, but the question is: would e really be so banana-y as scum? Isn't a thoughtless town the more likely scenario?

If it was a bit less clear, I'd be more willing to sheep it.

e's recent posts seem pretty solid.

OK, so, tentative conclusions:
Seprix is super towny.
Joseph is town and everyone voting him should feel bad.  Such a bad wagon.
I am increasingly doubting the case on e.  There's a few dodgy pieces but I'm increasingly thinking that they might stem purely from a different outlook on the game.  Most (not all, admittedly) things he's done that are being seen as scummy are just disagreements with other people.  The biggest single bad thing he's done as far as I can see is push Joseph pretty hard.  And I'm not sure that's enough - plenty of people have done that.  e's recent posts are genuinely towny, and I would suggest that people who are finding them scummy are suffering from confirmation bias.
Meanwhile, there's no one massive thing that gkrieg has done. He's kinda flying under the radar, being a bit careful.  But there's some odd interactions and something just off about his posts.  I'm going to go with vote: gkrieg
I'm not really seeing silver as that scummy any more.  I could go down that route, but I think we should be able to find a better lynch today.  The more I read him the more I think that my read was based on an incorrect expectation (the tunnelling thing).  If you ignore that, he comes out pretty null, if not slightly towny.
I really can't get to grips with II.  Half the time he's making loads of sense, half the time he does something totally off the wall.

[Haddock]

My vote is pretty buried in the wall of text there.

vote: gkrieg

[silverspawn]

Apologies, I had... other things on my mind.

unvote first of all, not sold on e at all

Catching up now

[silverspawn]

Here is my conclusion:

e is spot on. iguanda is scum. vote: iguanda