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[Witherweaver]

If we lynch fontisian I just don't trust:

1) That we win for sure if we lynch only mafia afterwards
2) That we can lynch the rest of the mafia correctly afterwards

WW, who do you currently want to lynch?

No one until I read everything. 

[fontisian]

Holy shit, I can't win if I shoot town Tonight. I. Can't. I always, always get lynched afterwards. Shooting scum a. Let's me try to game solve and b. Maybe gives me a chance to win if town gets paranoid or if something happens with my other wincon??? But, I'm always trying to shoot scum tonight.

[liopoil]

Holy shit, I can't win if I shoot town Tonight. I. Can't. I always, always get lynched afterwards. Shooting scum a. Let's me try to game solve and b. Maybe gives me a chance to win if town gets paranoid or if something happens with my other wincon??? But, I'm always trying to shoot scum tonight.

Why would we lynch afterwards you if it makes us lose?

[fontisian]

Because it's better to kill the scum that betrayed you than the scum that didn't. How else would you enforce bargains in the longterm?

[liopoil]

Because it's better to kill the scum that betrayed you than the scum that didn't. How else would you enforce bargains in the longterm?

It isn't possible to enforce bargains in the longterm.

[2.71828.....]

Because it's better to kill the scum that betrayed you than the scum that didn't. How else would you enforce bargains in the longterm?

Are you claiming to have "not betrayed town"?!?!

Seriously? How many town have you claimed to kill? Ichi, {J Reggie/seprix}, Jan. I count 3 town deaths you claim to be accountable for, yet you never betrayed town. Right.

[fontisian]

Uh, what? I haven't had an agreement with the town until now.

Jesus, you guys really haven't negotiated with third parties before, have you.

Alright, so negotiating in these circumstances is all about meta, both for the individual and community. On an individual level, it's important to build up a level of trust, by honoring these sorts of agreements. On the community side, it's important to punish individuals who cheat, so to say, on the arangment. That is why you should always lynch me if I don't comply, because it will encourage the next person in my position to comply.

It's an extended series of prisoner dilemmas, and historically they lead to more cooperation than not. See: civilization.

[liopoil]

Uh, what? I haven't had an agreement with the town until now.

Jesus, you guys really haven't negotiated with third parties before, have you.

Alright, so negotiating in these circumstances is all about meta, both for the individual and community. On an individual level, it's important to build up a level of trust, by honoring these sorts of agreements. On the community side, it's important to punish individuals who cheat, so to say, on the arangment. That is why you should always lynch me if I don't comply, because it will encourage the next person in my position to comply.

It's an extended series of prisoner dilemmas, and historically they lead to more cooperation than not. See: civilization.

It's exactly a repeated series of prisoner's dilemmas, and note that for any finite number of those the optimal play is to defect every time. Luckily civilizations don't play optimally which turns out to be a very good thing. In a game I expect you to play optimally though.

Certainly we have had third parties negotiate or at least try to before. In every case one of the following happens:

-It was the right choice not to negotiate
-Negotiating turned out badly for town
-Negotiating worked out, but only because the third party made a mistake
-Negotiating worked out because it was actually to the third party's wincon to play nice

So we will only make deals with you when it is actually to your wincon to uphold your end. It's not clear whether it is or not.

[fontisian]

False, betraying every time is the right thing to do in one prisoner dilemma, but the wrong thing in an extended series, where you can be held accountable for your actions.

Also, there's no true betray action for me here, because you can always punish me for it.

[fontisian]

Let's try this argument: the longer I live, the more likely it is that my alt wincon may be discovered. Playing by your roles let's me live longer. Etc.

[liopoil]

Let's try this argument: the longer I live, the more likely it is that my alt wincon may be discovered. Playing by your roles let's me live longer. Etc.

This is why you might in fact actually try to shoot mafia. What more do you know about your alt wincon?

False, betraying every time is the right thing to do in one prisoner dilemma, but the wrong thing in an extended series, where you can be held accountable for your actions.

Also, there's no true betray action for me here, because you can always punish me for it.

We are capable of punishing you but ultimately have no incentive to do so, as it not only will not help our wincon but also does not deter anyone from betraying in a later game. Betraying is still the right thing in any finite series, and I can prove it if you want.

[silverspawn]

It's not that I don't believe you, I just think you'll shoot town when you try to shoot scum.

[fontisian]

Re alt wincon: It's Day 3 and I know nothing. My hopes are slim.

Re incentives: Say I betray and one remaining mafia hits another town. We go into final 4 with two town, an sk and a mafia. The towns become the kingmaker, and get to lynch me out of spite or whatever. There's no incentive for me to go into that scenario.

Say I betray and there are three mafia. I get lynched. No incentive.

If I shoot a mafia, there's a chance the game continues, happens and I get a shot at winning. I also enhance my reputation of cooperation and skill, which, frankly is more important to me than any individual game.

[fontisian]

SO HELP ME TRY TO HIT SCUM!

[fontisian]

Talk to me about reads, go over e and gkrieg's iso and look for partners or clears, help me figure this out.

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm won over. I believe this is our only hope. So I can go with it.

[Roadrunner7671]

Also, gkrieg (in my opinion) is good at distancing partners. If I was you, I'd reread 2.7 and look for his partner instead.

[silverspawn]

Talk to me about reads, go over e and gkrieg's iso and look for partners or clears, help me figure this out.

makes sense. tomorrow, maybe.

[fontisian]

I am me, and I'm looking at them, but I'm not omniscient, and I don't know any of you, so please, get off your asses and help.

The towniest thing in the world is gamesolving. So, gamesolve!

[Roadrunner7671]

It would be easier to 'gamesolve' if
A. It wasn't a closed setup
B. Everyone wasn't against mass claiming
C. It's not a closed setup
D. All of the above

[liopoil]

Re alt wincon: It's Day 3 and I know nothing. My hopes are slim.

Re incentives: Say I betray and one remaining mafia hits another town. We go into final 4 with two town, an sk and a mafia. The towns become the kingmaker, and get to lynch me out of spite or whatever. There's no incentive for me to go into that scenario.

Say I betray and there are three mafia. I get lynched. No incentive.

If I shoot a mafia, there's a chance the game continues, happens and I get a shot at winning. I also enhance my reputation of cooperation and skill, which, frankly is more important to me than any individual game.

I feel weird giving you reasons to gun for town, but town absolutely does not play kingmaker in 2-1-1.

I don't know, I think it's fairly clear-cut. WW, Haddock, RR, and I are all very towny.

[liopoil]

Hmm I think I know fontisian's alt wincon.

@Haddock, at first it seemed like your theory was very consistent with what I was thinking, but then you said something that made me think you had something else in mind. So I am pretty confused at what you were getting at now. Are you equally confused at what I'm getting at?

[liopoil]

Hey, e, since you're mafia, I have a question for you:

Hypothetically, if it came down to a scenario where your team had no chance to win, but you got to choose whether fontisian or the town wins, who would you choose?

[2.71828.....]

Hey, e, since you're mafia, I have a question for you:

Hypothetically, if it came down to a scenario where your team had no chance to win, but you got to choose whether fontisian or the town wins, who would you choose?

Funny guy, this liopoil.

It would probably depend on what I ate for breakfast that morning. Pancakes....SK is looking good. Waffles? Might be a bad day for the SK. Who knows.

Again, just started my vacation, I will be checking in, but don't expect anything grounbreaking from me. Specific questions are awesome. Lynching fontisian and actually trying to win the game is awesome.

[fontisian]

Re alt wincon: It's Day 3 and I know nothing. My hopes are slim.

Re incentives: Say I betray and one remaining mafia hits another town. We go into final 4 with two town, an sk and a mafia. The towns become the kingmaker, and get to lynch me out of spite or whatever. There's no incentive for me to go into that scenario.

Say I betray and there are three mafia. I get lynched. No incentive.

If I shoot a mafia, there's a chance the game continues, happens and I get a shot at winning. I also enhance my reputation of cooperation and skill, which, frankly is more important to me than any individual game.

I feel weird giving you reasons to gun for town, but town absolutely does not play kingmaker in 2-1-1.

I don't know, I think it's fairly clear-cut. WW, Haddock, RR, and I are all very towny.

Oh.

Ohhhhh.

P sure I still get shot/die that way.