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[Jan]

1. If you are mafia, gkreig and ADK are likely partners.
2. If e is mafia and lio isn't, the mafia are probably around slot 3 or 4 on his wagon, but not consecutive.
3. The shift to lio benefited e more than it did you.
4. The players on this site like to bandwagon all at once.
5. If neither you nor e are mafia, then ADK and gkrieg are probably town? for shifting from one towny to another when they could have coasted.

What do you think about the fact that i called ADK and gkrieg likely partners if one of them flipped scum, because of gkriegs initial read on gkrieg?

overall those are the answers i expected, but you already know that. (well #4 is not something i would have mentioned)

Do you have reads yourself to fit into this analysis for now?

[Jan]

my point is not to waste your time, it is to open your eyes.

Aren't we arguing about a detail here? Even if I came to the conclusion that you and e being partners is monumentally unlikely, it would hardly change my mind on you.

How am I "keeping my options open?"

I am unlikely to die today at this point today, right?

E might, considering some people trying to push it recently.

If you are scum with E and he flips scum today, then you are basically keeping me in your lynchpool.
That is keeping your options open.

I am not saying i should be lock town forever and always, but like .. the way you talk about it is just so vague. Sure d1 and all that.

But if you believe everyone is capable to do anything then you just rng-lynch because reads don't matter.

And yes this is a detail, but details matter too. and it might help me getting a read on you.

[silverspawn]

But if you believe everyone is capable to do anything then you just rng-lynch because reads don't matter.

That makes no sense and I know that you know that it makes no sense. Whether or not we can reach certainty (which we can't, you're right about that, we can't even come close to it) has nothing to do with whether or not we should use reads to get a few points above the average.

See, this post has just made you about 0.25% more likely to be scum. Such progress!

[fontisian]

ADK and gkrieg would have to be wifoming to vote consecutively like that as partners. I don't think this site is aware of that kind of vote analysis, so it seems unlikely.

Here, have a rainbow:
fontisian
Reggie
Roadrunner
Ichi
ADK
Teproc
Haddock
lio
gkreig
Jan
silverspawn
Melisandre
Awaclus
Hydrad
Seprix
e

[silverspawn]

I like rainbows!

[fontisian]

I might actually put Melisandre lower. He's posted a lot, but nothing has seemed towny, and that bit about consolidating on a lurker was shit tier.

Lio may also be too high. Meh.

The Ichi read is partially based on the way silverspawn read him and the implication that he's an easy read.

[faust]

Vote Count 1.12

2.71828..... (3): A Drowned Kernel, Seprix, fontisian
liopoil (6): Teproc, Haddock, Hydrad, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671
Jan (2): silverspawn, liopoil
Seprix (1): 2.71828......

Not Voting (4): Ichimaru Gin, Jan, Melisandre, J Reggie

With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch. Day 1 ends June 1 at 4:30 pm forum time. That's in 1 hour, 57 minutes.

[silverspawn]

I might actually put Melisandre lower. He's posted a lot, but nothing has seemed towny, and that bit about consolidating on a lurker was shit tier.

Lio may also be too high. Meh.

The Ichi read is partially based on the way silverspawn read him and the implication that he's an easy read.

I should be higher, too.

[2.71828.....]

Our "not voting" people need to go somewhere

[Awaclus]

I should be higher, too.

There's an easy solution to that problem — just smoke more weed.

[Jan]

liopoil (6): Teproc, Haddock, Hydrad, Awaclus, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671
Now the championship feature where it links to every post where the vote was made would be useful. Let me search them by hand.

Just reread Jan, don't have the time for a detailed reread but I don't want to lynch him. The e vs Jan thing feels like typical town v town overblowing things, but especially Jan's frustrated reaction to our meta reads townie : I think scum is a lot more likely to try to silently adapt to it while town will express that frustration and continue doing what they're doing.

Don't want to lynch e either (changing your mind radically is a town tell if anything, on top of everything else)... silverspawn I guess ? I don't know if I'll be around for deadline, but I feel fine leaving my vote where it is, the leading wagons are just not any good.

OK.
Let's try vote: liopoil.  I don't think he's been very towny.

and we are close to deadline.

Vote: liopoil

That seems like a fun wagon. Lets see what happens.

Vote: liopoil

If Seprix isn't happening.

vote: liopoil looks good to me.

I haven't had enough time recently for this game with moving and stuff. Of the two larger wagons, I would rather go liopoil based on what I remember from this game. Neither of lio and Jan stuck out as super townie/don't want to lynch, and more of my town reads are on the lio wagon.

Busyness  should decrease by the start of the next day

vote: liopoil

Vote: Liopoil
L-2

Haddock: good. People have started calling lio's posts towny, and I can totally understand him going like "... what why lio is not towny let's vote"

Hydrad: Well it's Hydrad but he is overplaying his Hydradness. Scummy.

Awaclus: Nothing really, it's like every other Awaclus vote.

ADK: hard to say. It was an important vote to turn it into a serious wagon, but I don't think the wagon is bad. So it's okay I guess.

gkrieg: no idea. "I would rather go liopoil based on what I remember from this game." could be from anyone.

RR is likewise null be he is towny for other reasons

So the only vote here that really seems like "I want a mislynch" is Hydrad's

you forgot teproc.

my point was more do you have reads on the people on said wagon, since you are unsure about lio alignment, reading the people voting on him might help you reading him at least up to an extend.

I for one think that there might be 1 scum between hydrad and awaclus. wagon position, vote strength (you mentioned that one), general gameplay would be the reason. rarely both, mabe none of them. (that is regardless of lios alignment, they would be the buss or the scum for the misslynch).

Other might think ADK/Gkrieg is a thing (fonti mentioned it) .. but i have trouble seeing that knowing that i am town. They are kinda aligned with me for their positions on each of my counterwagons.

Everyone else i read as town.


I could ask you if Lio and I are likely aligned for similar reasons as the thing between E and myself, but I am sure if the gain is that big because you don't believe in anti alignments.

[2.71828.....]

Right now, of the wagons, I like

Seprix > Jan >>>> liopoil >>>>>>>>> e

[Jan]

ADK and gkrieg would have to be wifoming to vote consecutively like that as partners. I don't think this site is aware of that kind of vote analysis, so it seems unlikely.

Here, have a rainbow:
fontisian
Reggie
Roadrunner
Ichi
ADK
Teproc
Haddock
lio
gkreig
Jan
silverspawn
Melisandre
Awaclus
Hydrad
Seprix
e

If you exchange our names kick lio from green to orange, put reggie only in light green and seprix higher then it is good.
Awaclus and Hydrad as orange is tricky, they can go either way but they are more yellow than orange for it.

[2.71828.....]

Of course, "wagon" is pretty liberal for my one vote on seprix

[Jan]

Our "not voting" people need to go somewhere

I am fine with you or lio. Said that several times and voted each of you for quite some time today.

My gut says lio at this point, because of the way the wagons worked out for the last 1-2 days before his wagon built up.

He is close enough to be misshammered by accident (as in someone ending the day early by accident), so i will not vote him just yet.

[2.71828.....]

Our "not voting" people need to go somewhere

I am fine with you or lio. Said that several times and voted each of you for quite some time today.

My gut says lio at this point, because of the way the wagons worked out for the last 1-2 days before his wagon built up.

He is close enough to be misshammered by accident (as in someone ending the day early by accident), so i will not vote him just yet.

We don't mis-hammer. We might quickhammer, derphammer, or hammer for no apparent reason, but I have never seen someone get accidentally hammered

[Awaclus]

Our "not voting" people need to go somewhere

I am fine with you or lio. Said that several times and voted each of you for quite some time today.

My gut says lio at this point, because of the way the wagons worked out for the last 1-2 days before his wagon built up.

He is close enough to be misshammered by accident (as in someone ending the day early by accident), so i will not vote him just yet.

We don't mis-hammer. We might quickhammer, derphammer, or hammer for no apparent reason, but I have never seen someone get accidentally hammered

Isn't derphammering exactly that though?

[Seprix]

The way this day is going, I might be convinced to vote liopoil. Only reason: I know I'm town, but he might not be.

[2.71828.....]

Liopoil is still L-3 anyway, so not committing just reads like you not wanting to make a decision and go with whatever everyone else does.

[Jan]

Our "not voting" people need to go somewhere

I am fine with you or lio. Said that several times and voted each of you for quite some time today.

My gut says lio at this point, because of the way the wagons worked out for the last 1-2 days before his wagon built up.

He is close enough to be misshammered by accident (as in someone ending the day early by accident), so i will not vote him just yet.

We don't mis-hammer. We might quickhammer, derphammer, or hammer for no apparent reason, but I have never seen someone get accidentally hammered

i have .. two people voting at the same time. less likely to happen here with the forum warning. or someone not counting votes/being 1 off and thinking they are putting it to L-1.
I have seen things like that happen.

[Jan]

Liopoil is still L-3 anyway, so not committing just reads like you not wanting to make a decision and go with whatever everyone else does.

Didn't someone say it is L-2 earlier?

[Seprix]

Liopoil is still L-3 anyway, so not committing just reads like you not wanting to make a decision and go with whatever everyone else does.

That's freaking sheeping. So if I don't want to commit, I'm scum, and if I commit, I'm a freaking sheep and I'm scum anyways?

[2.71828.....]

Isn't derphammering exactly that though?

This is possible. I might not have the right definition in my head. I meant "scum hammering scum" type of hammer. Derp might not be the right word

[Ichimaru Gin]

Our "not voting" people need to go somewhere

Ok. I'm here. Catching up a bit. Deadline is in less than 2 hours, correct?

PPEs

[2.71828.....]

Liopoil is still L-3 anyway, so not committing just reads like you not wanting to make a decision and go with whatever everyone else does.

Didn't someone say it is L-2 earlier?

Last vote count has him at 6 votes