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[faust]

Regardless of balance, I think the role I had was super cool and smartly designed.

That said, mafia's Lightning Rod/Watcher combo was unfortunate. That's the one thing I would change if I were to run the setup again.

Was that unintentional?

Reading QT's now.

I somehow didn't think it was that strong. Maybe I should have told Seprix who he had the neighborhood with; that would have weakened it a lot and outed Teproc as scum.

[Haddock]

Why the fuck were we endgamed?

It was unwinnable.  Silver and fonti just force the no lynch then fonti kills one of us.   Done and done.

What even is silverspawn?

Okay, I see now. Wow that is even worse than 6 scum actually. I can't help but think that's broken; we had only two mislynches, and the SK shot mafia twic. Literally unwinnable by day four I think. Not balanced in my mind.

I mean I expected fontisian to be defecting but I didn't expect her to literally have a scumbuddy. SKs generally don't work like that, you know.

I think every team had rougly equal chances. The more teams there are, the smaller the chances for an individual team. 6 scum in 2 teams is fine for a game this size, and town had some pretty strong PRs.

Also, there was a way to town victory on D4 if town had listened to RR and lynched silver.

We were unfortunate with the way the kills fell out.  Was the Lightning Rod/Watcher combo what allowed mafia to be so accurate with PR sniping?  Haven't read that yet.

Well RR was advocating the no lynch at first, which definitely wouldn't have worked. 
As for lynching silver, I was certainly considering that, but I don't see how it could have happened anyway:
There were only 3 town left and the other 4 people knew everything between them.  They had total control over who got lynched.  They could in fact have just all come out publicly in thread and let town kingmake.  Which is essentially what happened anyway.  Town did some kingmaking unknowingly.

Besides, I think it's reasonable in 90% of situations to lynch people who you know are scum.  Without knowledge of the setup, lynching conf!scum is going to be better than lynching someone who's been acting a bit scummily in almost all situations.

[silverspawn]

well yes, lynching me (or anyone else) when there are 2 claimed scum is madness. That can't be expected of town.

[Haddock]

well yes, lynching me (or anyone else) when there are 2 claimed scum is madness. That can't be expected of town.

Quite.

[faust]

Well RR was advocating the no lynch at first, which definitely wouldn't have worked.

RR was never advocating no lynch. He said e was advocating no lynch, and therefore it shouldn't be done.

As for lynching silver, I was certainly considering that, but I don't see how it could have happened anyway:
There were only 3 town left and the other 4 people knew everything between them.  They had total control over who got lynched.

I thought that once WW realized that silver betrayed him (he voted e over fonti after all), he might have jumped that wagon. Which really would have been better for him then any kingmaking scenario: fontisian would have to kill e (can't kill WW since e wa a Doctor), D5 starts with 4 alive (5 if WW shoots fontisian), claimed SK and a hidden scum. That's a good position.

[faust]

well yes, lynching me (or anyone else) when there are 2 claimed scum is madness. That can't be expected of town.

But I think RR had a valid point: You cannot trust scum. I cannot think of a single instance where that went well.

[liopoil]

Wait, how did Roadrunner know anything? There was no actual reason from our information to lynch ss. It did become clear at the end that ss was not the only mafia, so I did start suspecting ww. But like, Moriarty is even worse than a single scum of any type.

It looks like ss rolecopped me, but like, he wasn't supposed to exist. I really don't think the moriarty role works at all.

well yes, lynching me (or anyone else) when there are 2 claimed scum is madness. That can't be expected of town.

But I think RR had a valid point: You cannot trust scum. I cannot think of a single instance where that went well.

Nobody was trusting scum.

[faust]

Wait, how did Roadrunner know anything? There was no actual reason from our information to lynch ss. It did become clear at the end that ss was not the only mafia, so I did start suspecting ww. But like, Moriarty is even worse than a single scum of any type.

It looks like ss rolecopped me, but like, he wasn't supposed to exist. I really don't think the moriarty role works at all.

well yes, lynching me (or anyone else) when there are 2 claimed scum is madness. That can't be expected of town.

But I think RR had a valid point: You cannot trust scum. I cannot think of a single instance where that went well.

Nobody was trusting scum.

Yet you lynched the person scum wanted you to lynch. You know, the person scum claimed to have an investigative result on even before being outed. That is how badly scum wanted them lynched.

Why do you think Moriarty doesn't work?

[Haddock]

Well RR was advocating the no lynch at first, which definitely wouldn't have worked.

RR was never advocating no lynch.

You're right.  I'm thinking of a different thing. 

well yes, lynching me (or anyone else) when there are 2 claimed scum is madness. That can't be expected of town.

But I think RR had a valid point: You cannot trust scum. I cannot think of a single instance where that went well.

Sure.  But we weren't exactly trusting scum.  We had two scums there.  Lynching neither was probably completely insane.
 (yeah OK so there's a scenario in which it was correct, but it was a long shot.  It also implied the existence of way more scum than would have made a win seem likely, so from a town perspective it's not unreasonable to discount that on the grounds that we were probably toast in that scenario anyway.)
So we had to lynch one or the other.   By doing so it looks like we're "trusting" one scum or the other, but really we're just picking a lynch and crossing our fingers.

Your narrative for lynching silver being good is all well and fine but with the information we had there was no way in a million years for town to predict that. 
RR may have been right as it happens, but he was as blind as the rest of us. 
And it STILL relies on WW essentially siding with town.

I don't think town chose the wrong thing at the end.  I'd do the same again.  (Maybe would have lynched fonti but that wasn't likely to end well either.)  Really we were just picking the manner of our demise.


PPE.  Scum also wanted fonti dead.  Like, one way or another we were lynching either e or fonti, and there were scums encouraging both of those lynches.  There's nothing that town can realistically take from that.  It's obvious to you from the perfect information, but going blind I don't think our play can be faulted on that final day.  Fault town for poor choices in the early game.

[silverspawn]

I think what I said in the thread was sound. If two scum are outed, it is expected that both are going to push for the other scum's lynch. That does not mean that lynching one of them is bad.

Without me it might have worked, too, and how could town know a role such as mine existed?

[Haddock]

Like, RR was right as it happens.

But equally it was possible that e and fonti were the only remaining scum.  (That looks like a weakscum setup, but you never can tell, PRs can make up for such things.)

In that situation, e's claim looks weird but makes some kind of sense.  He thinks he's done for, so he goes for a gambit where he tries to convince town to do exactly what RR ended up advocating.  Then town lynch silver and e snatches victory from the jaws of defeat.  A desperate play, but maybe his only option.

There's simply no way to know.

PPE.  Couldn't agree more, silver.

[liopoil]

Wait, how did Roadrunner know anything? There was no actual reason from our information to lynch ss. It did become clear at the end that ss was not the only mafia, so I did start suspecting ww. But like, Moriarty is even worse than a single scum of any type.

It looks like ss rolecopped me, but like, he wasn't supposed to exist. I really don't think the moriarty role works at all.

well yes, lynching me (or anyone else) when there are 2 claimed scum is madness. That can't be expected of town.

But I think RR had a valid point: You cannot trust scum. I cannot think of a single instance where that went well.

Nobody was trusting scum.

Yet you lynched the person scum wanted you to lynch. You know, the person scum claimed to have an investigative result on even before being outed. That is how badly scum wanted them lynched.

Why do you think Moriarty doesn't work?

Obviously with our information, and with 5 scum in the game, we had to lynch fontisian or e. Qe lynched e not because we trusted font. but because we felt that we needed to lynch mafia before the SK. If we had lynched fontisian it would have had nothingnto do with trusting e.

Moriarty has to power to choose whichever scumteam is winning and tell then about the other scumteam AND get the losing scumteam to keep losing by still shooting town. He also gets to coordinate the two team's nightkills amd can appear towny very easily by "bussing" when actually this does not hurt his wincon (see: the fabricated iguana scumslip). His existence makes a scum win and a moriarty win highly probable. Not to mention that he is basically immune to NK. He nearly effectively has control of a 6-person scumteam with two kills, and town just doesn't stand a chance to that.

[faust]

Well, I think that in general there's something to be said about letting outed scum live if there is other scum still remaining. Lynching outed scum just doesn't give any additional information, and thus their lynch can be delayed until the last possible moment.

[Haddock]

Well, I think that in general there's something to be said about letting outed scum live if there is other scum still remaining. Lynching outed scum just doesn't give any additional information, and thus their lynch can be delayed until the last possible moment.

Disagree.  Several reasons.

We couldn't know if there was even another scum left.  It was likely but not confirmed. 
Also allowing kills to happen assists with PoE in deciding who to pick to lynch.
Finally lynching scum means killing off some scum PRs.

[faust]

Moriarty has to power to choose whichever scumteam is winning and tell then about the other scumteam AND get the losing scumteam to keep losing by still shooting town. He also gets to coordinate the two team's nightkills amd can appear towny very easily by "bussing" when actually this does not hurt his wincon (see: the fabricated iguana scumslip). His existence makes a scum win and a moriarty win highly probable. Not to mention that he is basically immune to NK. He nearly effectively has control of a 6-person scumteam with two kills, and town just doesn't stand a chance to that.

fontisian was never forced to out herself to silver. Scum had it harder, but they could have banned silver from their QT, which they didn't. The mafia team made a big mistake in trusting silver too much, and that is why they lost. They could have easily lynched silver, but they didn't. They could also have nightkilled him if they tried hard enough. Moriarty was a boost to the SK and a nerf for the mafia mostly.

[silverspawn]

How can the mafia team lynch me? I have all of their identities. And it's not like a prisoners dilemma where doing it loses my ability to blackmail; I can sell them out piece by piece if I want to.

[Haddock]

Can I just say again how terrible the ADK lynch was?  Like, just, the absolute worst.
ADK was totally and consistently towny.
Hmm.  Well half of ADK's wagon was scum, I guess.  So that's a little less bad.

[faust]

How can the mafia team lynch me? I have all of their identities. And it's not like a prisoners dilemma where doing it loses my ability to blackmail; I can sell them out piece by piece if I want to.

Well, they claim an investigative result on you, you spill some names that you claim are mafia in your defense, get lynched, flip scum, and everyone forgets about your accusations. Similar thing happened in yuma's RMM28 with PPS.

[Haddock]

Everything you're saying is right, faust.  But I still don't think you can conclude that town played incorrectly at the end.  What little control we had only really existed for us to decide our fate.

Yes we could have tried to lynch silver.  I maintain that in 99 out of 100 setups that would have been the wrong thing to do.  It's a very intricate situation that led to that being the right thing, and relied on the existence of a role like silver's, which I've never seen before. 

I feel like you're trying to tell town that we were wrong at the end there.  As it happens it didn't work out, but I think statistically our play was basically fine.  Fonti might have been a better lynch.

I think you are coming at this from a position where you knew everything all along and it's harder for you to see that we literally could never have known enough to make the right choice. 

[silverspawn]

How can the mafia team lynch me? I have all of their identities. And it's not like a prisoners dilemma where doing it loses my ability to blackmail; I can sell them out piece by piece if I want to.

Well, they claim an investigative result on you, you spill some names that you claim are mafia in your defense, get lynched, flip scum, and everyone forgets about your accusations. Similar thing happened in yuma's RMM28 with PPS.

Well. That could work, theoretically. But a) it starts with a 1 on 1. If things go bad, mafia gets lynched not me, and b) even if it doesn't, I can give a super extensive and detailed claim of mafia's players and and roles and plans if I want to, can you really have that out there? What if they do believe me... or see that I was right after they lynch just one of them... etc.

Also they were not even supposed to know my identity.

[silverspawn]

Admittedly mafia made the same mistake I did and claimed all of their roles in the QT before reading their PMs carefully, which made life a lot easier for me.

[faust]

Everything you're saying is right, faust.  But I still don't think you can conclude that town played incorrectly at the end.  What little control we had only really existed for us to decide our fate.

Yes we could have tried to lynch silver.  I maintain that in 99 out of 100 setups that would have been the wrong thing to do.  It's a very intricate situation that led to that being the right thing, and relied on the existence of a role like silver's, which I've never seen before. 

I feel like you're trying to tell town that we were wrong at the end there.  As it happens it didn't work out, but I think statistically our play was basically fine.  Fonti might have been a better lynch.

I think you are coming at this from a position where you knew everything all along and it's harder for you to see that we literally could never have known enough to make the right choice.

I don't think you played much wrong in the end. I just hoped that RR's argument would succeed because that would have made fo an exciting endgame.

Town went wrong early on mostly. The Awaclus lynch was terrible. Some PRs made questionable choices (RR did not motivate D1; Ichi did not shoot N1 (I'm in the camp "vigs should shoot N1"); Seprix did not jailkeep N2). After that, town was already in a bad spot.

[faust]

Also they were not even supposed to know my identity.

Well yes, your role was designed around you not claiming your identity. That Deflecting and Redirecting should help you move kills away from you. Then you could always end up having a wagon accidentally. And in order for that not to happen, you need to be townie (i.e. out scum), which further weakens scum.

[Haddock]

Everything you're saying is right, faust.  But I still don't think you can conclude that town played incorrectly at the end.  What little control we had only really existed for us to decide our fate.

Yes we could have tried to lynch silver.  I maintain that in 99 out of 100 setups that would have been the wrong thing to do.  It's a very intricate situation that led to that being the right thing, and relied on the existence of a role like silver's, which I've never seen before. 

I feel like you're trying to tell town that we were wrong at the end there.  As it happens it didn't work out, but I think statistically our play was basically fine.  Fonti might have been a better lynch.

I think you are coming at this from a position where you knew everything all along and it's harder for you to see that we literally could never have known enough to make the right choice.

I don't think you played much wrong in the end. I just hoped that RR's argument would succeed because that would have made fo an exciting endgame.

Town went wrong early on mostly. The Awaclus lynch was terrible. Some PRs made questionable choices (RR did not motivate D1; Ichi did not shoot N1 (I'm in the camp "vigs should shoot N1"); Seprix did not jailkeep N2). After that, town was already in a bad spot.

Fair enough. 

Yeah as I said before I agree that town lost in the early game.

I THINK this might be my first town loss?  Not sure, would have to check that.  Interesting.  WW has ended up saving so many town games that looked hopeless.

I've still never been lynched.

[silverspawn]

Also they were not even supposed to know my identity.

Well yes, your role was designed around you not claiming your identity. That Deflecting and Redirecting should help you move kills away from you. Then you could always end up having a wagon accidentally. And in order for that not to happen, you need to be townie (i.e. out scum), which further weakens scum.

Ah, really? I might have just claimed anyway, though-- or done some sort of nefarious as "I am one of X, Y, and Z." Because I really thought that I was in an untouchable position in terms of my ability to blackmail, and if they have to do what I say anyway, why not let them know who I am? That makes it a lot easier to avoid those annoying wagons.

I would certainly have claimed had they threatened to otherwise close the QT, which I would probably do as mafia.