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Author Topic: The Necro Wars  (Read 468462 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7025 on: October 07, 2024, 03:15:51 pm »

Actually I guess if I can give numerical scores, I'd give Ice a 9.6 and Program Music III a 9.8

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7026 on: October 10, 2024, 06:26:21 am »

Awaclus

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7027 on: October 10, 2024, 06:52:20 am »



Meanwhile, in the comments we have a demonstration of how Musk has been "improving" Twitter.
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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7028 on: October 10, 2024, 07:37:39 am »

I don't know the technical details of what changes Musk made to twitter (I only know the things the user experiences directly, such as the longer post thing and that you can't send everyone DMs anymore), but my prior reasons for thinking that he would improve twitter have been falsified, so now if you tell me that he's made twitter worse, my default assumption is that you're right.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7029 on: October 22, 2024, 08:25:39 am »

The 2024 Market is now completely crazy



There's been some movement toward Trump, but it's minor -- I think in Nate Silver's model, he's now a 52/48 favorite or something.

Apparently there's been a few accounts, plausibly just from one person, that dumped millions into Trump Yes.. It's unclear why. It could be a rich guy trying to influence the election, although it's not obvious whether being a favorite in the markets is good or bad for a candidate? It could also be a rich guy who genuinely thinks Trump is a 2-1 favorite because the polls will underestimate Rs. Hard to say.

Either way, if I'd known this would happen, I'd have waited until now to buy shares. Now I don't have more money to spare and I'm certainly not selling now, so I'm all-in -- double or nothing!

Awaclus

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7030 on: October 22, 2024, 08:32:05 am »

It could be a rich guy trying to influence the election, although it's not obvious whether being a favorite in the markets is good or bad for a candidate?

The media (who remarkably consistently fail to understand what prediction markets are) seem to think it's obviously good for Trump, but the main actual effect it has is that it incentivizes people to buy Kamala, which in turn incentivizes them to vote Kamala. The psychological manipulation aspect of it seems speculative at best since it could have so many different effects in either candidate's favor.
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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7031 on: October 22, 2024, 10:11:03 am »

It could be a rich guy trying to influence the election, although it's not obvious whether being a favorite in the markets is good or bad for a candidate?

The psychological manipulation aspect of it seems speculative at best since it could have so many different effects in either candidate's favor.

Yeah, agreed.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7032 on: October 22, 2024, 10:12:09 am »

Isn't it weird that jokes are socially appropriate in almost every context? You can just insert something with zero relevance to the current discussion whenever you want, as long as it's trying to be funny. It's also a weirdly underrated aspect of human society.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7033 on: October 22, 2024, 10:13:52 am »

The media (who remarkably consistently fail to understand what prediction markets are) seem to think it's obviously good for Trump

I did notice -- despite not watching the news -- that prediction markets are suddenly way way more talked about than a few years ago. Somehow, polymarket seems to have broken into the mainstream discourse in a way that past prediction markets did not at all

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7034 on: October 24, 2024, 12:53:18 pm »

This is so strange: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1849322869324652773

Like the community notes are really good, but it is so weird that Elon posts stuff stupid enough to need them, but it is really cool that it applies to his own account, but it is so weird that it has to

Abstractly, the fact that someone who invents a feature to fight misinformation also does things which this feature genuinely applies to is ???

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7035 on: October 25, 2024, 05:09:07 pm »

Guys, The Onion is good again! It only took 15 years of downtime.

Ok it's not as good as it used to be, but still.

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7036 on: November 03, 2024, 06:38:39 am »



So the smart money does exist but they waited until a few days ago to put in money? Idgi. But now I'm not buying more shares -- when it was at 33cts, I was planning to put in a little more; those were pretty good odds.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7037 on: November 03, 2024, 08:29:17 am »

But we do now know the source of the dumb money? https://x.com/conorsen/status/1852450558088470599

(Would link the article itself but it's paywalled https://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-odds-polymarket-election-betting-whale-3d94bed3)

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7038 on: November 03, 2024, 08:31:44 am »

I mean in fairness, tons of people online are saying the same thing; he's just actually putting his money to his beliefs. Imo this is what you should do, so I'm more inclined to talk shit about everyone else who isn't betting 80% of their networth.

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7039 on: November 03, 2024, 08:41:58 am »

First results come in 1 AM on Tuesday, I'm already looking forward to not getting any sleep. I love not getting sleep :->

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7040 on: November 03, 2024, 08:42:27 am »

Being sleep deprived is just my favorite

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7041 on: November 03, 2024, 08:42:35 am »

Sleep sucks anyway

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7042 on: November 04, 2024, 01:53:27 pm »

Rate the probability that Trump knows what a tariff is

Awaclus

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7043 on: November 04, 2024, 01:57:25 pm »

Rate the probability that Trump knows what a tariff is

90-93%
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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7044 on: November 04, 2024, 02:16:51 pm »

Seriously? I'd put it more around 20%.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7045 on: November 04, 2024, 02:19:19 pm »

Either way I find it unnerving that no one around me seems to be panicking, so I have to express my anxiety here by writing random shit

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7046 on: November 04, 2024, 02:19:26 pm »

ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7047 on: November 04, 2024, 02:24:15 pm »

So someone who I think is a genius recommended me this article and the work of this author in general: https://raypeat.com/articles/articles/unsaturated-oils.shtml

Here's the first question with random words put into caps to make it funnier:

    Q: You say vegetable oils are hazardous to your health. What vegetable oils are you talking about?

    Mainly, I'm referring to SOYBEAN OIL, corn oil, safflower oil, canola, SESAME OIL, sunflower seed oil, palm oil, and any others that are labeled as UNSATURATED or POLYSATURATED. Almond oil, which is used in many cosmetics, is very unsaturated.

    Chemically, the material that makes these oils very toxic is the POLYUNSATURATED FAT ITSELF. These unsaturated oils are found in very high concentrations in many seeds, and in the fats of animals that have eaten a diet containing them. The fresh oils, whether cold pressed or consumed as part of the living plant material, are intrinsically toxic, and it is not any special industrial treatment that makes them toxic. Since these oils occur in other parts of plants at lower concentration, and in the animals which eat the plants, it is impossible to eat a diet which LACKS them, unless special foods are prepared in the laboratory.

    These toxic oils are sometimes called the "essential fatty acids" or "vitamin F," but this concept of the oils as essential nutrients was clearly DISPROVED over 50 years ago.

    Linoleic and linolenic acids, the "essential fatty acids," and other polyunsaturated fatty acids, which are now fed to pigs to fatten them, in the form of corn and soy beans, cause the animals' fat to be chemically equivalent to VEGETABLE OIL. In the late 1940s, chemical toxins were used to suppress the thyroid function of pigs, to make them get fatter while consuming less food. When that was found to be carcinogenic, it was then found that corn and soy beans had the same antithyroid effect, causing the animals to be fattened at low cost. The animals' fat becomes chemically similar to the fats in their food, causing it to be equally TOXIC, and equally FATTENING.

    These oils are derived from seeds, but their abundance in some meat has led to a lot of confusion about "animal fats." Many researchers still refer to lard as a "saturated fat," but this is simply incorrect when PIGS are fed soybeans and corn.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7048 on: November 04, 2024, 02:24:45 pm »

tl;dr cook with coconut oil

Awaclus

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #7049 on: November 04, 2024, 02:25:40 pm »

Seriously? I'd put it more around 20%.

Trump knowing what a tariff is is more skippable than people think.
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Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free
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