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[silverspawn]

I would reinstate democracy when I'm done dictating!

[silverspawn]

Seems like the disqualification isn't going to happen. Good thing the economy is so strong then

[silverspawn]

[silverspawn]

Maybe I should just stop looking at betting markets, this is getting silly

[Awaclus]

But in all seriousness though, I bet you agree that it would be a godawful idea to develop a superhuman AI so that it can make all political decisions in the world, unless we can be very certain that it's actually going to be smart consistently without any big failure modes and that it's actually going to use its intelligence for the benefit of humanity (I think we should definitely at least very strongly hesitate even when those problems have been solved as far as anyone can tell, and you might agree about that as well, but my argument works even if you don't).

It's not easier to be confident that a human is both that smart and that aligned with the interests of all of humanity.

[silverspawn]

Yeah, I mean, the set of people that I would be comfortable making a dictator is pretty small for that reason, but it's not empty, and it does include myself

[Awaclus]

Yeah, I mean, the set of people that I would be comfortable making a dictator is pretty small for that reason, but it's not empty, and it does include myself

Aren't you obviously — basically tautologically — unable to assess whether you have any big failure modes that could have disastrous consequences if you were given full power to do anything you want? If you were smart enough to notice them, that would also make you smart enough to not have any in the first place.

[silverspawn]

Well I wouldn't just sit in my basement writing down laws. The skill that I'm most confident in is well actually it's philosophy, but the skill I'm second most confident in is to figure out which thinkers to listen to. I would lean heavily into that and basically function entirely as the person who decides which people are in charge. I would have the theoretical last word, but I'd probably almost never use it.

That's the one answer. The other answer is that American politics in particular is so grim right now that I think not taking the One Ring, if hypothetically you had that choice, is completely irresponsible. It's not like we're making the same decision about Singapore.

And I guess a third answer is that if there is any person in the set of people who you'd make a dictator, then it has to include yourself because you could just choose that person. Like, I could just decide to make Yang president for two terms and then return to the old system. I think that'd be an improvement, so that's already enough reason to choose the Ring in this metaphor

[Awaclus]

And I guess a third answer is that if there is any person in the set of people who you'd make a dictator, then it has to include yourself because you could just choose that person. Like, I could just decide to make Yang president for two terms and then return to the old system. I think that'd be an improvement, so that's already enough reason to choose the Ring in this metaphor

Are you sure it's a good idea to override democracy in a country where the average citizen owns more than one firearm?

[silverspawn]

no, but I was ignoring practical considerations

[silverspawn]

Unrelated, the fact that Biden actually seems to be a fantastic president altogether (surprisingly so) makes the polling numbers and his approval rating particularly absurd.

[silverspawn]

The thought experiment is actually underspecified because as Varys correctly pointed out, power resides where people believe it resides, even if "people" is not necessarily all people equally. But you can't be a dictator unless some people think you are a dictator, and it's unclear how exactly that works

[faust]

as Varys correctly pointed out, power resides where people believe it resides

This is a bit undercomplex though. In Nazi Germany, lots of people believed that Jewish bankers secretly controlled the world. That did not exactly give those Jewish bankers more power.

[Awaclus]

as Varys correctly pointed out, power resides where people believe it resides

This is a bit undercomplex though. In Nazi Germany, lots of people believed that Jewish bankers secretly controlled the world. That did not exactly give those Jewish bankers more power.

I'm not sure how much they actually believed that. Clearly Nazis believed they could get away with doing horrible things to Jews, which seems to be a bit contradictory with the belief that Jews had power over Nazis.

[silverspawn]

Interesting objection.

as Varys correctly pointed out, power resides where people believe it resides

This is a bit undercomplex though. In Nazi Germany, lots of people believed that Jewish bankers secretly controlled the world. That did not exactly give those Jewish bankers more power.

I'm not sure how much they actually believed that. Clearly Nazis believed they could get away with doing horrible things to Jews, which seems to be a bit contradictory with the belief that Jews had power over Nazis.

Belief in Belief? That's one of the LW concepts that I'm very certain actually exist. Applies to a lot of religious belief, though not all of it

[segura]

Yeah, I mean, the set of people that I would be comfortable making a dictator is pretty small for that reason, but it's not empty, and it does include myself

Have you never taken a look at how people change when they get significantly more power? No mass murdering dictator started the whole thing believing that he would slaughter millions. They all set out with good intentions which, paired with egomania and ignorance of human nature, let to utter horrors.

Everybody is capable to do horrible things under the right circumstances and pretending that one is not susceptible to evil is a necessary condition for ending up on the road to hell.

Externalizing evil, pretending that it is only the others who can become evil, is on a political level the very basis of fascism. Fascist ideology needs some other upon whom it can project all social antagonism, (which is why in fascist ideology Jews were capitalists and Bolsheviks at the same time) to establish the dream of an organic, harmonic society that can be established once the other is excluded/banned/killed.

[Awaclus]

Belief in Belief? That's one of the LW concepts that I'm very certain actually exist. Applies to a lot of religious belief, though not all of it

Probably, and probably some of them were saying it while fully aware it wasn't true.

[Awaclus]

The basic free version of Gemini (unlike GPT-3.5 the last time I checked, which was a few months ago) gives correct answers about average height differences between cis and trans people of various genders.

[silverspawn]

I have to talk more about this:

She's now at 7.2%. What the actual fuck? Is this all just right wing lunacy? Is there such a big overlap between crypto-savvy people and MAGA cultists? Or is there some actual reason for this that I don't know?

[silverspawn]

I guess it's no more insane than Trump still hovering around 5% after the votes were counted and Biden was declared the winner. back then we actually did have a functioning market, and I actually did buy Trump NOs again, I think for around 1000$.

[Awaclus]

There's a New York Post columnist who keeps speculating about it. https://nypost.com/2024/02/06/opinion/michelle-obama-may-have-notified-people-on-her-white-house-ambition-i-plan-to-run/

[silverspawn]

There's a New York Post columnist who keeps speculating about it. https://nypost.com/2024/02/06/opinion/michelle-obama-may-have-notified-people-on-her-white-house-ambition-i-plan-to-run/

WTF even is this? I can't even figure out what is part of the article and what is part of the remaining news feed.

I broke the story Mrs. Obama might run for the highest office in the land. With outlets all repeating my story, the Obamas have not denied it.

Oh man. This sentence does not inspire confidence.

I'm taking this all as confirmation that it is in fact right wing lunacy.

[silverspawn]

... was the video supposed to be the story and the text mostly feed?

[silverspawn]

The fact that you can make money by doing what the columnist  is doing there is mildly infuriating

[Awaclus]

There's a New York Post columnist who keeps speculating about it. https://nypost.com/2024/02/06/opinion/michelle-obama-may-have-notified-people-on-her-white-house-ambition-i-plan-to-run/

WTF even is this? I can't even figure out what is part of the article and what is part of the remaining news feed.

It's all a part of the article, including the stuff that's completely unrelated to Michelle Obama, until the comment section. It's a column.

I'm taking this all as confirmation that it is in fact right wing lunacy.

Probably, but the fact that a prominent newspaper publishes a column by someone who keeps talking about it as if it was true explains why some people are willing to bet money on it being true when the betting odds are that favorable.