Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 152 153 [154] 155 156 ... 273  All

Author Topic: The Necro Wars  (Read 346010 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3825 on: June 24, 2022, 12:51:44 pm »

betting markets don't seem to care about the abortion stuff. looks like a clean win for conservatives

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3826 on: June 24, 2022, 12:52:49 pm »

in my sophisticated opinion, making abortions difficult is dumb

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11817
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (´。• ω •。`)
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3827 on: June 24, 2022, 01:09:48 pm »

The successful framing of the abortion debate as "pro-choice" vs "pro-life" has been an enormous boon for the pro-lifers. It would be far more accurate to frame it as "pro-prevention" vs "pro-punishment".
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3828 on: June 24, 2022, 01:15:28 pm »

yeah, pro life is a questionable label. In particular, you can be "pro life" in the sense of wanting fewer abortions to take place while also wanting them be legal.

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11817
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (´。• ω •。`)
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3829 on: June 24, 2022, 01:33:07 pm »

yeah, pro life is a questionable label. In particular, you can be "pro life" in the sense of wanting fewer abortions to take place while also wanting them be legal.

I don't think pretty much anyone actually wants abortions to happen, it's just that some people are putting in effort to actually help people avoid situations where they would possibly need an abortion, while some others don't care much about that stuff (or are even actively opposed to it) and just want to implement a punishment for the people who get abortions.
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3830 on: June 24, 2022, 01:42:42 pm »

Well, it's not *entirely* about prevention vs punishment, there is also disagreement about how bad of an outcome an abortion is

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3831 on: June 24, 2022, 01:43:38 pm »

It does feel a bit dystopian that, with democracy under serious threat and many of the cities deteriorating, the supreme court makes this move toward conservative religion.

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3384
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3832 on: June 24, 2022, 04:52:05 pm »

betting markets don't seem to care about the abortion stuff.
That certainly confirms my prejudices about who participates in betting markets.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3833 on: June 25, 2022, 02:19:19 am »

Do you predict that it significantly increases democrats' chances in the house and senate? (Those were the ones I've looked at.)

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3834 on: June 25, 2022, 02:49:57 am »

20 other reasons why consciousness isn't an algorithm (i.e., beside the big ones) since I have a lot of ideas that I need to gather somewhere and maybe this can become a post as well who knows

0. None of the arguments for why it has to be a computation actually work

(Introspection)
1. Nothing about how you generally feel indicates that consciousness is a process rather than a state
2. Sitting still and doing nothing/sensory depravation leads to intense and diverse (pleasurable) experiences, rather than to nothing.
3. There are few if any cases where solving a problem feels anything like the algorithmic solution for the same problem
4. TBD

(Philosophy)
5. Information/algorithms/bits is a made-up concept
6. Consciousness being an algorithm implies that companies/countries/a single person pushing rocks could plausibly be conscious
7. Bijections are often the most elegant mathematical objects, hence we might expect one between matter and C.
8. TBD
9. TBD

(Valence)
10. Tying valence to reinforcement learning and/or preference satisfaction has strange implications
11. In general, people have absolutely no clue what valence corresponds to, even though many consider it to be the most important thing in the universe
12. Music is extremely pleasurable, including to most animals, despite being an evolutionary riddle
13. TBD

(Academics)
14. Evidence suggests that image classifiers suffer from several kinds of visual illusions like mixing up brightness, but none that rely on visual binding
15. Language models (and to some extent AI in general) systematically perform well at tasks that humans do unconsciously
16. None of the computational theories of consciousness are properly formalized except IIT, and IIT is blatantly wrong. (So the computational approach isn't super successful.)
17. Neuroscience is widely unsuccessful compared to just about every other natural science (physics/chemistry/biology/etc.), indicating that people are doing something fundamentally wrong

(Other)
18. While the Turing Machine shows that every problem is computable in a digital way, there are many examples where utilizing global physical effects leads to significant speedup (why does firefox not know the word computable?)
19. TBD
20. TBD

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3835 on: June 25, 2022, 02:51:36 am »

This is definitely not convincing by itself, so if anything it comes after the main course, and it will need substantial justification

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3836 on: June 25, 2022, 02:53:54 am »

8. can be qualia uniqueness

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3837 on: June 25, 2022, 05:23:12 am »

Ok now the markets have moved a few percent, in the last couple of hours? That doesn't make much sense. Though it's still not super significant

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3838 on: June 25, 2022, 05:55:05 am »

I still don't get why Trump has a higher chance of becoming president than of being nominated. The markets aren't that broken. Either I don't get something or they think there's a really significant chance he runs as a third party and wins? That seems way out there to me. I know the % of people who'd back the republican nominee over Trump is small, but it's not that small. If Trump runs as a third party candidate, I expect the Democrat to win... modulo democracy ending.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3839 on: June 25, 2022, 05:57:48 am »

or the site is bugged

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11817
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (´。• ω •。`)
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3840 on: June 25, 2022, 07:00:51 am »

I still don't get why Trump has a higher chance of becoming president than of being nominated. The markets aren't that broken. Either I don't get something or they think there's a really significant chance he runs as a third party and wins? That seems way out there to me. I know the % of people who'd back the republican nominee over Trump is small, but it's not that small. If Trump runs as a third party candidate, I expect the Democrat to win... modulo democracy ending.

It'll probably fix itself as soon as someone with enough money notices and starts betting against Trump becoming the president and for him getting nominated to make practically guaranteed money.
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3841 on: June 25, 2022, 07:35:28 am »

If there's really no better explanation, that would be a mount-everest-sized inadequacy

Awaclus

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11817
  • Shuffle iT Username: Awaclus
  • (´。• ω •。`)
    • View Profile
    • Birds of Necama
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3842 on: June 25, 2022, 08:13:19 am »

It looks like something weird happened on September 7, 2021. Trump's chances of being the president just doubled out of nowhere.
Logged
Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

The YouTube channel where I make musicDownload my band's Creative Commons albums for free

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3843 on: June 25, 2022, 08:20:57 am »

It looks like something weird happened on September 7, 2021. Trump's chances of being the president just doubled out of nowhere.

yeah, that's ??????

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3844 on: June 25, 2022, 09:17:12 am »

can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm entertained watching classical chess

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3845 on: June 25, 2022, 09:37:17 am »

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3846 on: June 25, 2022, 01:18:01 pm »

"I don't have time to read this yet" was pretty funny

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3847 on: June 25, 2022, 01:25:42 pm »

While I think the decision is terrible, being mad about people celebrating it makes no sense. Being pro life isn't an anti-democratic decision, it's just stupid. I don't think it's particularly more stupid than being anti nuclear power.

silverspawn

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5326
  • Shuffle iT Username: sty.silver
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3848 on: June 26, 2022, 04:49:33 am »

So apparently the prices are because electionbettingodds takes them from different markets. Which is not a good explanation because it means at least some markets suck

Anyway, looking only at PredictIt, which has severe problems but at least it's a real thing that's been around a lot and is sort of accessible,

33% to win the nomination

27% to win the presidency

Also pretty wtf though. 27/33 = 9/11 conditional odds? Interesting that he's now behind DeSantis, though.

Jimmmmm

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1762
  • Shuffle iT Username: Jimmmmm
    • View Profile
Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #3849 on: June 26, 2022, 06:43:13 am »

Do sucky markets mean easy money?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 152 153 [154] 155 156 ... 273  All
 

Page created in 0.837 seconds with 19 queries.