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Author Topic: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Game Over, Mafia Wins!)  (Read 133328 times)

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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1050 on: March 23, 2016, 07:55:49 am »

Thing that gets me is how chairs/Ichi seem to be working together but maybe I only see that because they are both trying to get me lynched. I suffer from reverse bias just as badly.
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1051 on: March 23, 2016, 08:41:25 am »

Either this thing is really that easy. Ichi/chairs are the scum team and are caught in a lie... or town is in a pretty rough spot due to how night actions resolved last night. I say rough because I have no real sense of who else scum could be.

That the Ichi wagon didn't already go boom is damning evidence to me.
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1052 on: March 23, 2016, 08:42:20 am »

Note, if Ichi/chairs are scum then gkrieg was the hesitant town. Gkrieg, what's your analysis on the situation?
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chairs

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1053 on: March 23, 2016, 10:00:03 am »

alright, I think this is the part where I trade myself for scum, because I am 100% confident PPS is Mafia and also 100% confident Mafia has already guessed this based on my tunneling of him.

I believe I am the reason there was no NK N1. I am a Doctor and targetted Haddock N1. It's my contention that PPS is, in fact, a roleblocker - but a Mafia one, who roleblocked me N2 thus preventing me from doctoring Haddock.

Well. You fail Mafia if you are 100% on my alignment. You only get to do that under some very limited circumstances with a lot of known information. Circumstances include being a sane cop with no possibility of redirection or being in a game with a reduced population where you and the IC and a scum are left.

I am 100% sure I am town but I make no such certainty about anyone else's alignment so I would claim to at least be playing the more intelligent game, here. In fact, making such bold assertions is scummy on its face.

Now, I'm not sure why scum!chairs would make this claim even if it were to try to save a sinking Ichi/chairs ship. I'm inclined to believe the claim because it felt like a pretty long shot to have role blocked the NK on N1 (although a successful doctoring isn't too much longer). It felt even longer to have caught the next scum in a lie with my actions. That said, I feel way better about the likelihood that Ichi is lying about his interaction with awaclus.

The exists a very real,possibility I got redirected last night. I mean if scum has a redirect or and the first day I claim role blocking how could they not resist sending my block a known direction.

Chairs, who did you Doctor last night and why?

I doctored Haddock last night, again. I figured if he was a persistent cop, then it would benefit us to have him around as long as possible, so that when he died and someone got his results we'd have as much possibility of verifying their accuracy as possible.

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1054 on: March 23, 2016, 10:02:08 am »

Claiming to doctor the person who died. Not a strategy scum usually take
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chairs

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1055 on: March 23, 2016, 10:02:47 am »

And as you can see, the doctoring failed, which implies strongman or roleblocking. From my angle, the narrative is "pps claimed roleblocker, and wasn't lying about role, just alignment", you saw my opinion that your claim to be responsible for preventing the NK was bunk and determined I was some sort of protective role, but wanted to drop the persistent cop before he could provide too much info to town so you just rb'd me.

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1056 on: March 23, 2016, 10:02:59 am »

Also, sorry, I fell asleep halfway through trying to reread the thread and compile claims.
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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1057 on: March 23, 2016, 10:30:51 am »

And as you can see, the doctoring failed, which implies strongman or roleblocking. From my angle, the narrative is "pps claimed roleblocker, and wasn't lying about role, just alignment", you saw my opinion that your claim to be responsible for preventing the NK was bunk and determined I was some sort of protective role, but wanted to drop the persistent cop before he could provide too much info to town so you just rb'd me.

That seems like a fair analysis to take away if you are telling the truth. Too bad we have no witness of who I actually targeted last night to prove you wrong (but not necessarily scum).

Interesting that scum goes for Haddock twice in a row and you doctor him twice in a row.
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gkrieg13

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1058 on: March 23, 2016, 10:45:17 am »

Note, if Ichi/chairs are scum then gkrieg was the hesitant town. Gkrieg, what's your analysis on the situation?

I'll look at it again later today ( I'm on mobile right now). From skimming it looks like there are a couple of reasons for the lack of N1 NK. Does it mean we have to either say the team is chairs/IG or that it is PPs/?  Does scum who missed on the NK try to claim something to target someone else and get them lynched?  I think that is the real question we have to answer about PPS. The other thing I can think of that I find strange here is that limetime flipped as mafia-aligned. Where the town people have flipped with their role included. I'm still thinking this through.
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chairs

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1059 on: March 23, 2016, 10:46:43 am »

Now that I've clamed down and thought about it, it's technically possible for PPS and myself and IG to all be Town, actually, which is the frustrating bit of this situation.

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1060 on: March 23, 2016, 10:48:21 am »

Unvote
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chairs

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1061 on: March 23, 2016, 10:48:59 am »

calmed, not clamed.

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1062 on: March 23, 2016, 10:52:40 am »

At first my position was we have to lynch IG regardless so we can sort out the truth. I'm not so convinced this is the case because I think if he flips town it just sets on a path for more mislynches. If he were to flip scum though it would be basically game over. I don't think we are going to ascertain who is for sure scum today so we have to do second best which is identify the best informative flip should that person flip town. I'm still mulling this over, though because I don't think the answer is immediately obvious.
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pingpongsam

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1063 on: March 23, 2016, 10:55:30 am »

Note, if Ichi/chairs are scum then gkrieg was the hesitant town. Gkrieg, what's your analysis on the situation?

I'll look at it again later today ( I'm on mobile right now). From skimming it looks like there are a couple of reasons for the lack of N1 NK. Does it mean we have to either say the team is chairs/IG or that it is PPs/?  Does scum who missed on the NK try to claim something to target someone else and get them lynched?  I think that is the real question we have to answer about PPS. The other thing I can think of that I find strange here is that limetime flipped as mafia-aligned. Where the town people have flipped with their role included. I'm still thinking this through.

What i was really asking is why you didn't hammer IG when the wagon progressed and it looked like he was totally caught in a lie. Like, where was your head at then, not where do we go from here.
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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1064 on: March 23, 2016, 11:03:00 am »

Note, if Ichi/chairs are scum then gkrieg was the hesitant town. Gkrieg, what's your analysis on the situation?

I'll look at it again later today ( I'm on mobile right now). From skimming it looks like there are a couple of reasons for the lack of N1 NK. Does it mean we have to either say the team is chairs/IG or that it is PPs/?  Does scum who missed on the NK try to claim something to target someone else and get them lynched?  I think that is the real question we have to answer about PPS. The other thing I can think of that I find strange here is that limetime flipped as mafia-aligned. Where the town people have flipped with their role included. I'm still thinking this through.

What i was really asking is why you didn't hammer IG when the wagon progressed and it looked like he was totally caught in a lie. Like, where was your head at then, not where do we go from here.

Claiming voyeur and not getting the correct result last night with only a few people claiming their night actions seems more townie/fishy than scummy. Especially in RMM games there always seems to be another explanation. Also just the way his wagon formed seemed scummy instead of townie to me. So weird claim + wagon formation I guess.
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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1065 on: March 23, 2016, 11:25:39 am »

If I allow for IG/chairs to be town and gkrieg too for being off the wagon then the wagon becomes awaclus, e, ww, hydrad. I made that order from most likely to be town to most likely to be scum. Awaclus has the visitor thing that he has to keep doing unless, as scum, his visits all die each night oh so conveniently. Besides, if we have a 3 man scum tem and one is dead and one is awaclus then we have a lying town already (hydrad and e both confirm him, right?)

So, awaclus is not scum today or maybe ever this game.

Next up, e, one of the awaclus confirmers. Now confirming awaclus is not town pass but contrasted with hydrad's confirmation his looks townier. Also, e seems to be playing a town game. finally, he thinks I am town so naturally I think he is town.

Now we have ww. He's probably scum because he's ww. I mean, I see nothing about his play here that is outside his usual scum meta. I'm always down for lynching WW because he is always scum even when he's town. But, is his lynch the most informative today?

Finally, hydrad. I don't have the time to reread now but I think based on gut feel this is the informative flip of the day. Besides chairs is actually active this game, has made a pretty good recovery from looking scummy as hell to looking fairly town and he thinks he is suspect.

Again, I've got some rereading to do tonight (assuming no baby arrives) before I commit to any of this I was just kind of getting this out there before I fell off the map for the rest of the day.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1066 on: March 23, 2016, 01:36:24 pm »

And as you can see, the doctoring failed, which implies strongman or roleblocking. From my angle, the narrative is "pps claimed roleblocker, and wasn't lying about role, just alignment", you saw my opinion that your claim to be responsible for preventing the NK was bunk and determined I was some sort of protective role, but wanted to drop the persistent cop before he could provide too much info to town so you just rb'd me.

That seems like a fair analysis to take away if you are telling the truth. Too bad we have no witness of who I actually targeted last night to prove you wrong (but not necessarily scum).

Interesting that scum goes for Haddock twice in a row and you doctor him twice in a row.
Um. What do you mean "actually" targeted. You claim to have targeted Awaclus with something. My witness is that no one targeted Awaclus at all.

I also take it you wont tell us what you supposedly did to Awaclus last night that isnt roleblocking.

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1067 on: March 23, 2016, 01:48:07 pm »

chairs insinuates I targeted him last night with a roleblock since he was supposedly doctoring haddock and haddock died anyhow.

I claim to have targeted awaclus.

This we have a situation where I wish we had someone who can confirm who I "actually" targeted.

I don't see it helping the game state to reveal my targeting action. Revealing that it was not a roleblock I think is sufficient for now. I'm open to compelling reasons to reveal the actual action, though.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1068 on: March 23, 2016, 01:59:54 pm »

Well, it was clearly not roleblock because my night action got through.
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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1069 on: March 23, 2016, 02:01:50 pm »

After thinking more about it.  vote: pps

Here's my reasoning:

The simplest explanation for the lack of NK N1 is that chairs doctored Haddock, a claimed cop, and that he was the target.  Then, N2, IG got the result that Awa wasn't targeted because PPS didn't really target him.

The other scenario is that IG and chairs are lying together with a much more ridiculous string of fakeclaims.  It would require that chairs is going all-in with IG so that we don't lynch IG.  I don't think that makes much sense when we aren't (probably) at MYLO.  IG would also have to claim no result on someone, which seems silly to do that with Awaclus, who is IC at this point.

The simplest explanations are almost always the correct ones.

PPS was not on the scum lynch, which I think further implicates him vs chairs/IG
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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1070 on: March 23, 2016, 02:07:27 pm »

Well, it was clearly not roleblock because my night action got through.
Well i saw that no one targeted you with anything. Pps not telling us what he supposedly did to you gives no reason whatsoever to think he actually targeted you. Now if whatever he did had a measurable effector he has a result, that changes things. For now, i dont see any reason to believe him. Though its of course possible that I or PPS were interfered with.

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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1071 on: March 23, 2016, 02:14:41 pm »

Here's my reasoning:

The simplest explanation for the lack of NK N1 is that chairs doctored Haddock, a claimed cop, and that he was the target.  Then, N2, IG got the result that Awa wasn't targeted because PPS didn't really target him.

This would be a pretty good hypothesis, but the only problem I have with it that it doesn't assume that Ichi is scum.
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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1072 on: March 23, 2016, 02:17:02 pm »

Here's my reasoning:

The simplest explanation for the lack of NK N1 is that chairs doctored Haddock, a claimed cop, and that he was the target.  Then, N2, IG got the result that Awa wasn't targeted because PPS didn't really target him.

This would be a pretty good hypothesis, but the only problem I have with it that it doesn't assume that Ichi is scum.

It doesn't reflect my thinking through all the possible scenarios.  I thought through the scenario where IG is scum, and that is partially illustrated in the second argument that I think is less likely
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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1073 on: March 23, 2016, 02:24:17 pm »

I doctored Awaclus.
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Re: RMM31: Untitled Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1074 on: March 23, 2016, 02:25:04 pm »

Here's my reasoning:

The simplest explanation for the lack of NK N1 is that chairs doctored Haddock, a claimed cop, and that he was the target.  Then, N2, IG got the result that Awa wasn't targeted because PPS didn't really target him.

This would be a pretty good hypothesis, but the only problem I have with it that it doesn't assume that Ichi is scum.
But im not scum. Pps wants you to think i am though.
Im not as wedded to the idea that he has to be scum. I knew that something else was the cause of the no kill N1 because Im just a harmless voyeur.

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