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Author Topic: KC is far more skippable than people think.  (Read 92467 times)

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GOON GARDEN

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KC is far more skippable than people think.
« on: January 03, 2016, 11:59:54 pm »
+1

In this game, I repeatedly choose gold over KC with 7$ turns.

I win by a large margin.

KC is skippable in a lot of games that lack + buy or there is a viable sprint strategy that is too fast for anyone to actually build up to a megaturn.

https://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160103/log.0.1451844058550.txt
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Titandrake

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2016, 12:43:41 am »
+5

1. Welcome to the forums!
2. In this game, there's +Buy and there's Mountebank, the exact opposite of a sprint strategy. It's hard, but I'm not convinced that KC is skippable here. You can use Procession as a bootstrap early on to gain lots of Margraves and 1-2 Mountebanks, then pick up King's Court.

It's hard to get through the junking of Mountebank, but KC-Margrave is tons of draw and a decent attack.

Edit: going for Mountebank-BM is a reasonable choice, but I'm saying that when your opponent doesn't pick up Margrave until turn 17, this game isn't valid proof against going for KC. There are definitely boards where KC is skippable but I haven't seen one in a while.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 12:46:35 am by Titandrake »
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GOON GARDEN

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2016, 12:50:30 am »
0

Well, I skipped KC in this game and my score almost doubled that of my opponent, who bought 6 king's courts and two margraves.

I realize there is a + buy here, but that is offset by the presence of montebank, which IMO adds to the power of sprint strategies and slows down engines too much in many cases.

My opponent even hit me with KC + montebank (another reason someone might argue KC is not skippable here) but I still won 38 - 20. That is a pretty large margin of victory.

My strategy was simple: Buy plenty of gold and a few montebanks and buy provinces before my opponent could have a megaturn.



Edit: going for Mountebank-BM is a reasonable choice, but I'm saying that when your opponent doesn't pick up Margrave until turn 17, this game isn't valid proof against going for KC. There are definitely boards where KC is skippable but I haven't seen one in a while.

That's just the thing, though, its hard to acquire the necessary cards rapidly enough. My opponent didn't pick up margrave until turn 17 because he had to worry about getting montebank and also had to worry about getting KC's.

My whole point is that it takes too long to get all the cards needed and have them all line up in place when there is montebank mucking things up.

. You can use Procession as a bootstrap early on to gain lots of Margraves and 1-2 Mountebanks, then pick up King's Court.

The temptation of "bootstrapping" one's deck with procession is notoriously swingy. It could work, or it could result in dismal failure and "KC" would be skipped, not by choice but because you wouldn't hit 7+ until it is too late. Such a strategy is far more risky than BM + montebank.

So if the bootstrapping with procession is necessary to make KC + margrave engine viable, to me, that does not make the KC strategy more enticing since the bootstrapping is itself, risky


I have won a lot of games by skipping KC and letting my opponent fall into the trap of overbuilding with KC. Now that I am posting here I will share other examples later
« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 01:22:20 am by GOON GARDEN »
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2016, 01:26:28 am »
+3

Welcome to the forums! I'd like to tell you about my little friend. His name is Scout, and he can make your dreams into reality? What do you say?

Anyway, on topic, you successfully skipped KC in one game against an opponent who appears to have played suboptimally. One game is not enough to dub a card 'skippable.'
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GOON GARDEN

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2016, 01:32:46 am »
0



Anyway, on topic, you successfully skipped KC in one game against an opponent who appears to have played suboptimally. One game is not enough to dub a card 'skippable.'

I am not basing my opinion on one game, but countless games I have won in this manner, i.e. BM or sprint strategy against opponents who build engines with KC where KC is, in my opinion, skippable. This game is to serve as an illustration of an anomoly -- 6 KC deck vs zero KC deck - result? 38 - 20 in favor of zero KC deck.

Although my opponent played suboptimally, I won 38-20. That's a pretty large margin for someone who had zero KC's against a player who had 6, Sub-optimal playing or not.

« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 01:38:02 am by GOON GARDEN »
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2016, 01:39:24 am »
0



Anyway, on topic, you successfully skipped KC in one game against an opponent who appears to have played suboptimally. One game is not enough to dub a card 'skippable.'

I am not basing my opinion on one game, but countless games I have won in this manner, i.e. BM or sprint strategy against opponents who build engines with KC where KC is, in my opinion, skippable. This game is to serve as an illustration of an anomoly -- 6 KC deck vs zero KC deck - result? 38 - 20 in favor of zero KC deck.

Although my opponent played suboptimally, I won 38-20. That's a pretty large margin for someone who had zero KC's against a player who had 6, Sub-optimal playing or not.
You should challenge someone who you see a lot on the forum (if you're planning on sticking around). Build a board with KC and skip it.
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GOON GARDEN

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2016, 01:41:21 am »
0



Anyway, on topic, you successfully skipped KC in one game against an opponent who appears to have played suboptimally. One game is not enough to dub a card 'skippable.'

I am not basing my opinion on one game, but countless games I have won in this manner, i.e. BM or sprint strategy against opponents who build engines with KC where KC is, in my opinion, skippable. This game is to serve as an illustration of an anomoly -- 6 KC deck vs zero KC deck - result? 38 - 20 in favor of zero KC deck.

Although my opponent played suboptimally, I won 38-20. That's a pretty large margin for someone who had zero KC's against a player who had 6, Sub-optimal playing or not.
You should challenge someone who you see a lot on the forum (if you're planning on sticking around). Build a board with KC and skip it.

I don't like to build boards. But the next time I see a board that is randomly generated that I think is a good example of skippable KC, I will.

Maybe you would like to take up the challenge yourself.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2016, 01:43:18 am »
0



Anyway, on topic, you successfully skipped KC in one game against an opponent who appears to have played suboptimally. One game is not enough to dub a card 'skippable.'

I am not basing my opinion on one game, but countless games I have won in this manner, i.e. BM or sprint strategy against opponents who build engines with KC where KC is, in my opinion, skippable. This game is to serve as an illustration of an anomoly -- 6 KC deck vs zero KC deck - result? 38 - 20 in favor of zero KC deck.

Although my opponent played suboptimally, I won 38-20. That's a pretty large margin for someone who had zero KC's against a player who had 6, Sub-optimal playing or not.
You should challenge someone who you see a lot on the forum (if you're planning on sticking around). Build a board with KC and skip it.

I don't like to build boards. But the next time I see a board that is randomly generated that I think is a good example of skippable KC, I will.

Maybe you would like to take up the challenge yourself.
Oh, boy. I'm not great at Dominion, you might be able to beat me. And what do you mean, 'good example of skipping KC?' Are there certain boards where you would refuse to skip KC?
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GOON GARDEN

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2016, 01:45:50 am »
0


Of course there are boards in which KC is not skippable. Nobody is suggesting such a ludicrous notion. In the majority of cases, KC is not skippable.

There are many seasoned players who believe KC is never skippable. These players are wrong.

When I say "more skippable" it means "more frequently skippable" than the consensus believes.

« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 01:47:19 am by GOON GARDEN »
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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2016, 01:52:19 am »
+8

In this game, I repeatedly choose gold over KC with 7$ turns.

I win by a large margin.

KC is skippable in a lot of games that lack + buy or there is a viable sprint strategy that is too fast for anyone to actually build up to a megaturn.

https://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160103/log.0.1451844058550.txt

Here is a suggested variant of your post:
Quote
In this game, I repeatedly choose gold over KC with 7$ turns.

I win by a large margin.

Is KC skippable in this game, as I think? What do you think?

https://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160103/log.0.1451844058550.txt
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Awaclus

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2016, 02:05:09 am »
+4

Well, I skipped KC in this game and my score almost doubled that of my opponent, who bought 6 king's courts and two margraves.

And 18 stop cards in addition to the starting 10 and the junk he got from your Mountebanks. You can't really expect to draw KC-KC-Margrave very often when your deck looks like that.

I played a couple of games against bots and it does seem like building the engine is better than not on this kingdom. You just have to buy Mountebank as soon as you can, a second Mountebank as soon as you can, not buy any Silvers after the first one, not buy any Tributes, Secret Chambers or Nomad Camps, buy enough Margraves, and not get too unlucky draws in the early game. Even then, you can't expect your engine to work every turn, but KCing Baron and two Mountebanks is just so good that as long as it works every other turn or so (which is a more reasonable thing to expect), you should win against an opponent who's doing the best he can with just three cards every turn.

What's worth noting is that KC strategies tend to be very difficult to play right and they can backfire hard if you can't (as demonstrated by your opponent here). It probably would have increased your opponent's chances of winning that particular game if he had ignored KC, and it also explains why skipping KC has been successful for you.

Also, winning 38-20 is not really proof of anything. Sometimes you just completely crush your opponent and win by a margin of one point, and sometimes it's an extremely close game that ends 48-0.
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GOON GARDEN

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2016, 02:22:24 am »
0

Well, I skipped KC in this game and my score almost doubled that of my opponent, who bought 6 king's courts and two margraves.

And 18 stop cards in addition to the starting 10 and the junk he got from your Mountebanks. You can't really expect to draw KC-KC-Margrave very often when your deck looks like that.

I played a couple of games against bots and it does seem like building the engine is better than not on this kingdom. You just have to buy Mountebank as soon as you can, a second Mountebank as soon as you can, not buy any Silvers after the first one, not buy any Tributes, Secret Chambers or Nomad Camps, buy enough Margraves, and not get too unlucky draws in the early game. Even then, you can't expect your engine to work every turn, but KCing Baron and two Mountebanks is just so good that as long as it works every other turn or so (which is a more reasonable thing to expect), you should win against an opponent who's doing the best he can with just three cards every turn.

What's worth noting is that KC strategies tend to be very difficult to play right and they can backfire hard if you can't (as demonstrated by your opponent here). It probably would have increased your opponent's chances of winning that particular game if he had ignored KC, and it also explains why skipping KC has been successful for you.

Also, winning 38-20 is not really proof of anything. Sometimes you just completely crush your opponent and win by a margin of one point, and sometimes it's an extremely close game that ends 48-0.

Generally speaking, the closer two scores are in a game the greater the likelihood that luck was the determining factor in the game. Generally, you can't truly "dominate" the opponent in a game that ends with you leading by one point, because had the draws been a bit different, in many cases you could have lost instead of one.

I never rested my argument on the score in this game, nor did I rest my argument on this game. It's just an illustration of my argument.

My opinion is this: KC is indeed skippable in some cases. That is all I am saying.

I find it rich that players will say "KC strategies are hard to play right" as if it is more skill based than other strategies--that is half true but not the whole truth of the matter.  KC makes the game more of a "crapshoot" in that it all depends on cards lining up properly in just the right configuration, which may or may not happen when someone is getting hit with curses / coppers and or ruins.

I would change your statement of "KC strategies are hard to play right" to "KC strategies are extremely swingy in some cases, and optimal playing / action card saturation will mitigate that weakness inherent of KC strategies on some boards".

The success of a KC strategy is dependent on getting huge megaturns before the VP piles have been significantly or completely depleted. There are more cases than you admit where the sprint strategy is simply too fast and the game ends before the player's engine falls into place, or the player's engine does go off into a mega turn but it is already too late.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 02:35:36 am by GOON GARDEN »
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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2016, 02:31:19 am »
+3

I find it rich that players will say "KC strategies are hard to play right" as if it is more skill based than other strategies--that is half true but not the whole truth of the matter.  KC makes the game more of a "crapshoot" in that it all depends on cards lining up properly in just the right configuration, which may or may not happen when someone is getting hit with curses / coppers and or ruins.
This seems relevant:
Quote from: AdamH
You make your own shuffle luck.
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GOON GARDEN

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2016, 02:41:43 am »
+1


You make your own shuffle luck.
[/quote]

I would qualify that statement to: "You make your own shuffle luck most of the time" - If you play well, you will PROBABLY get good draws, and EVENTUALLY you are going to get good draws

But it is entirely possible for a sprint strategy to cut the game short before the player gets "an even distribution" of draws that they deserve. Especially with cards like montebank bogging everything down.

Which means that in the majority of cases, you will get good draws if you build well.

But you can still play optimally and have uncommonly bad draws for a short number of turns - And a short number of turns is all that is needed for a sprint strategy to succeed

« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 02:52:32 am by GOON GARDEN »
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markusin

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2016, 03:16:49 am »
+1

You know, more doesn't necessarily mean better when it comes to card quantity. A deck with 2 King's Courts could have been better than one with 6 of them in this game. A hand of 5 King's Courts is useless after all.

Seasoned players might say that KC is never skippable because it's better to assume that a KC or two that you can spike will improve your deck more than anything else you can do. A card not being skippable doesn't mean you will necessarily lose if you don't get it but your opponent does. It just suggests that the optimal strategy includes the card in question.

That said, given that you junked your opponent very strongly with Mountebank, I would not argue that getting Gold over KC was a mistake. In a game with junking and no trashing, it's better to get cards that rely less on lining up with other ones.

In this game though, there was +buy and any "sprint strategy" would suffer a lot from Mountebank and Margrave. So why not argue that KC is weakened in games with lots of junk being distributed and no way to trash them?

I do encourage you to find more examples of games where pursuing KC appeared to be a mistake. It's a good leaning opportunity regardless of how others feel about their outcome.
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GOON GARDEN

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2016, 03:22:59 am »
0




That said, given that you junked your opponent very strongly with Mountebank, I would not argue that getting Gold over KC was a mistake. In a game with junking and no trashing, it's better to get cards that rely less on lining up with other ones.



Exactly my point


In this game though, there was +buy and any "sprint strategy" would suffer a lot from Mountebank and Margrave. So why not argue that KC is weakened in games with lots of junk being distributed and no way to trash them?



Good question. And you are quite right. I should focus on what you emphasized since that is far more relevant in the game log I included in OP. And I agree completely --In 1-1 I tend to skip KC in favor of gold in games where there is junking and no way to trash. This is even more true when the game is 3 or more players.

A lot of players would argue you should still go for KC + junker, especially in the case of montebank because they believe that monty + KC is the holy grail in such a board.

However, as the game log in OP shows, my opponent hit me with "KC + monty" and it was not the be all end all--- This was in part because it took too long to line up.

Thanks for your encouragement, I will continue to do share games in which I feel KC is skippable.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 03:30:43 am by GOON GARDEN »
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Awaclus

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2016, 03:50:59 am »
0

Generally speaking, the closer two scores are in a game the greater the likelihood that luck was the determining factor in the game. Generally, you can't truly "dominate" the opponent in a game that ends with you leading by one point, because had the draws been a bit different, in many cases you could have lost instead of one.

Not in the case where you're at the point where you can 3-pile and buy an Estate for the win while your opponent is still struggling to build his engine.

My opinion is this: KC is indeed skippable in some cases. That is all I am saying.

That's not an opinion, that's objectively true. It just sounds like you're overestimating how common those cases are.

I find it rich that players will say "KC strategies are hard to play right" as if it is more skill based than other strategies--that is half true but not the whole truth of the matter.  KC makes the game more of a "crapshoot" in that it all depends on cards lining up properly in just the right configuration, which may or may not happen when someone is getting hit with curses / coppers and or ruins.

I would change your statement of "KC strategies are hard to play right" to "KC strategies are extremely swingy in some cases, and optimal playing / action card saturation will mitigate that weakness inherent of KC strategies on some boards".

That statement contradicts itself. There is no weakness inherent of KC strategies if optimal playing mitigates it. I wouldn't say that KC strategies are extremely swingy either it's not really much more difficult to line up two KCs and a Margrave than it is to line up two Golds and a Silver, and the fact that the former is a triple Province/tons of pile control and give your opponent 6 Coppers turn while the latter is a single Province turn doesn't make it swingier, it just makes it better.

The success of a KC strategy is dependent on getting huge megaturns before the VP piles have been significantly or completely depleted. There are more cases than you admit where the sprint strategy is simply too fast and the game ends before the player's engine falls into place, or the player's engine does go off into a mega turn but it is already too late.

There are more cases than you admit where the engine is too slow only because the engine player built it suboptimally.
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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2016, 04:07:43 am »
+2

I think the core idea is that no matter how good a card is there will be boards that exist where you shouldn't get them.

Conversely, no matter how bad a card, there will be boards that you will want them. The important thing is to recognize those boards.

Now is this board one where you want to skip KC? I don't think so, but it really depends on how early you spike 7. You might already be at a point where you have too much junk to effectively use KC. But I don't think so.
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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2016, 04:20:53 am »
+1

Yes, KC is skippable. Boards with heavy junking make KC not so good, and so do heavy BM boards. However, most of the time, KC is such a powerhouse that you can turn Pearl Diver into a useful card. Of the most powerful cards in the game, KC is much more skippable than say Mountebank or Chapel or Ambassador. That still doesn't change the fact that it is super ultra strong most of the time.
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GOON GARDEN

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2016, 05:30:59 am »
0

Generally speaking, the closer two scores are in a game the greater the likelihood that luck was the determining factor in the game. Generally, you can't truly "dominate" the opponent in a game that ends with you leading by one point, because had the draws been a bit different, in many cases you could have lost instead of one.

Not in the case where you're at the point where you can 3-pile and buy an Estate for the win while your opponent is still struggling to build his engine.
 

I know that. That's why I qualified the statement with "generally" -- But I guess you ignored my careful wording so it would be easier to have a counterpoint.
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Awaclus

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2016, 05:40:57 am »
0

Yes, KC is skippable. Boards with heavy junking make KC not so good, and so do heavy BM boards. However, most of the time, KC is such a powerhouse that you can turn Pearl Diver into a useful card. Of the most powerful cards in the game, KC is much more skippable than say Mountebank or Chapel or Ambassador. That still doesn't change the fact that it is super ultra strong most of the time.

At least Chapel and Ambassador are more skippable than KC.
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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2016, 05:54:25 am »
0

I think the core idea is that no matter how good a card is there will be boards that exist where you shouldn't get them.

Conversely, no matter how bad a card, there will be boards that you will want them. The important thing is to recognize those boards.

Now is this board one where you want to skip KC? I don't think so, but it really depends on how early you spike 7. You might already be at a point where you have too much junk to effectively use KC. But I don't think so.

Exactly. Even KC has cases where it should not be purchased. That is all I am saying. And that point should not be controversial. (Yet Awalcus is making extraordinary stretches to try uphold the sacred cow status of KC)

Also, there are games where a KC should be purchased if there is an early 7, like you said.

And there are also games where a KC should be purchased if there is 7 -- and yet one should not go so far as to spend 8$ on a KC.

Furthermore, we have to apply the "Return on Investment" question to the case of KC.

There are circumstances that lead the KC to fail to give ROI before the game is complete.



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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2016, 05:59:14 am »
0


That statement contradicts itself. There is no weakness inherent of KC strategies if optimal playing mitigates it.

Just because I conceded that optimal playing mitigates the weakness does not mean it eliminates the weakness completely
it just means it reduces the weakness to an extent. Still, if your opponent has a sprint strategy there is always the possibility that you are  (for example) drawing dead KC's in spite of the fact that you bought plenty of villages and before you "regress to the mean" to use a statistics term, the game ends, either by the opponent exhausting three piles or by depleting or almost depleting the VP piles so as to render any megaturn that you will ultimately have insufficient for a comeback.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 06:00:15 am by GOON GARDEN »
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GOON GARDEN

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2016, 06:07:34 am »
0

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There are more cases than you admit where the engine is too slow only because the engine player built it suboptimally.

*shrugs* Maybe I just need to play against elite players more often. I didn't even go so far as to say that KC is skippable often, I just said it is skippable more often than the consensus would have you believe. I am challenging the notion that KC is never skippable, I am not trying to argue that it is skippable often, I personally skip it (ball park guess) in 8 percent of games in which KC is present.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 06:18:06 am by GOON GARDEN »
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SCSN

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Re: KC is far more skippable than people think.
« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2016, 06:17:43 am »
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I don't think KC is more skippable than I think.
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