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[Roadrunner7671]

I know my endgame was horrible, I'm pretty sure I talked about that in my Mafia QT. I guess I should've night killed WW and taken my chances...?
PPE

[Witherweaver]

RR gets a losers consolation MVP. He would have been the MVP had WW chosen the other way. He was able to maintain his meta pretty well throughout this game. I think the end game could have used some work, but coming from a guy who has lost like 6 games at mylo as scum I can't really offer any advice.

Yeah, but I thought he actually played it well.  But not claiming how strong of a result he actually had, he forced Xerxes into making a mistake.  Then he was certain. 

[yuma]

RR gets a losers consolation MVP. He would have been the MVP had WW chosen the other way. He was able to maintain his meta pretty well throughout this game. I think the end game could have used some work, but coming from a guy who has lost like 6 games at mylo as scum I can't really offer any advice.

Yeah, but I thought he actually played it well.  But not claiming how strong of a result he actually had, he forced Xerxes into making a mistake.  Then he was certain.

Yeah, that was a weird claim by Xerxes. I will admit that part of my criticism is tinted by what I wanted to happen as a mod. I wanted him to claim Xerxes was a roleblocker and be uncertain about his alignment only to have ss and EgorK claim and have three roleblockers claimed and alive at the same time. I thought that would be fun. But that is only a minor reason for my criticism.

[Teproc]

Where's the majority of f.ds who thinks roleblocker beats strongman ? Because I'm definitely not part of it. Strongman'd be pretty weak otherwise compared to ninja, as ninja has the natural advantage of protecting from a much worse scenario (getting caught vs no kill).

PPE : Killing EFHW was definitely right, RR.

[Witherweaver]

RR gets a losers consolation MVP. He would have been the MVP had WW chosen the other way. He was able to maintain his meta pretty well throughout this game. I think the end game could have used some work, but coming from a guy who has lost like 6 games at mylo as scum I can't really offer any advice.

I tried pretty hard to be objective in my reread of RR.  Honestly a few times over the last week I was just going to say 'screw it' and vote RR, but I stopped myself.  The big thing I wanted to check is that Egor's PR claim and actions around it and interactions with Teproc weren't (likely to be) faked.

[Awaclus]

Yay go us!  Why did you guys kill me?

I don't know what RR's reasoning behind it was, but I was fine with it mostly because I didn't anticipate Teproc being as difficult to mislynch as he turned out to be, so I wanted to keep him alive, and out of the remaining options, you had a good chance of being a PR because of PoE and you also had slightly inconvenient reads.

But you knew I was a Watcher, that's what surprises me here. I was pretty mislynchable as VT, much less so as Watcher I think.

I thought we kind of had to hope that we could lynch you regardless since so many townies were obvtown.

[Witherweaver]

I know my endgame was horrible, I'm pretty sure I talked about that in my Mafia QT. I guess I should've night killed WW and taken my chances...?
PPE

The only thing going for you there is the "RR would have killed EFHW if he was scum" WIFOM, which may have worked for you.  But it's tough.  I think you made the right call there.

[Teproc]

My QT is hilarious for all the completely wrong setup speculation alone.

[Awaclus]

I think that, going into 2v1, it's generally a good idea to kill the townie who's the least likely to vote for anyone but you unless that townie is very mislynchable themselves. Town tends to not care about that stuff as much as they probably should.

[Teproc]

Re : fake voting (discussed at the end of WW's QT) : I don't think it's against the spirit of the rules at all. It's yuma's game, so that's fine if he doesn't want people to do it in his games, but I feel it's a legitimate tactic for both alignments to use.

PPE : I generally agree. Town overestimates how likely scum is to kill for WIFOM.

[Witherweaver]

Also sorry about making the last day take really long, but I really was quite busy.  Was out of town Thursday and Friday, and moved into a new apartment on Saturday. 

[yuma]

Re : fake voting (discussed at the end of WW's QT) : I don't think it's against the spirit of the rules at all. It's yuma's game, so that's fine if he doesn't want people to do it in his games, but I feel it's a legitimate tactic for both alignments to use.

The reason I tend to implement rules against it is that it makes mod mistakes too easy. Let's say WW did that without telling me. It is very conceivable that I wouldn't have realized it was a fake vote and ended the game then and there. That makes me wary as a mod. Obviously I try to be as careful as I can in getting the vote counts right, but this is just one area where a mod mistake is increased and I don't like that as a mod.

Scripts that are written like ss has prevents that, but I don't have the technical ability to do that.

[Witherweaver]

Lots of math talk in the speccy.  24% is not wrong at all; that was the a priori chance we had 5 PRs, which is what we were calculating.  Taking into account that we had a Cop flip, however, does reduce that.  (Which I didn't do.)

The issue with Egor's calculation is it makes no difference between lying!him and truthing!him scenarios whether Watcher, Rolecop, and Roleblocker were those three roles or any roles in {4, 5, ..., 10}. 

[Witherweaver]

Haha, best speccy quote:

I'm glad claiming roleblocker has been more common than claiming VT this game

[EFHW]

Thanks yuma.  Kudos to EgorK for playing so towny, too.

So was the math right?  Did the scenario with 5% chance of happening happen, or was there a flaw in the assumptions?

I read RR as scum when his self-attacks started feeling exaggerated.  I really thought the voting pattern would convince everyone, I was surprised when he wasn't lynched right away.

[EFHW]

My QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/7C3SY4hYkYFSJ

[yuma]

Someone else can answer the math question:

But the setup rolled was thus: First four rolls: 4, 5, 4, 9 = Roleblocker(3), Watcher(3), Roleblocker(3), Rolecop(4)

Causing a fifth roll: (1) = Cop (-2).

[Witherweaver]

Thanks yuma.  Kudos to EgorK for playing so towny, too.

So was the math right?  Did the scenario with 5% chance of happening happen, or was there a flaw in the assumptions?

I read RR as scum when his self-attacks started feeling exaggerated.  I really thought the voting pattern would convince everyone, I was surprised when he wasn't lynched right away.

It depends what you mean by the scenario.  The scenario of getting exactly our setup {Watcher, Rolecop, Roleblocker, Roleblocker, Cop} is very small, but that's not the correct analysis to figure out if Egor/SS were lying or not.

[ashersky]

Where's the majority of f.ds who thinks roleblocker beats strongman ? Because I'm definitely not part of it. Strongman'd be pretty weak otherwise compared to ninja, as ninja has the natural advantage of protecting from a much worse scenario (getting caught vs no kill).

Dunno, I just remember being in the minority when defending the position of Strongman defeating a Roleblocker.

[ashersky]

Mind blown regarding EFHW/lio.

[Teproc]

My QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/7C3SY4hYkYFSJ

Hah, didn't realise I was talking about you when I referenced the good old liopoil line about his parents being aliens ! Funny.

Also this QT really puts into focus how rong I've been about everything in this game (well, I think not dscussing reads on day 3 was correct actually).

[yuma]

I won't deny that math is a part of this setup and is a part of the majority of most mafia setups that involve rolling for roles.

Using that math I think is good and if so inclined and capable helpful to winning.

But what I saw in this game, especially during day5, was an over-reliance on math. What I saw was players doing the math reaching a conclusion and then neglecting to substantiate it with reads, voting analysis, player interaction or anything else to reach a joint conclusion. Perhaps the conclusion would have still been the same, that it was best to lynch ss. But that lynch was rushed (as were all of the lynches this game except for Day6) and forced through. But I think there were strong compelling arguments to cause those who put forward (accurately the math argument) pause.

This is difficult because reads and interaction analysis can't really be quantified.

This is why I say math sucks. Not so much the math, but the reliance that people place on it that prohibits them from actually playing the game.

[Teproc]

So tomorrow my 'self confidence crumbles' and I see if I can get myself policy lynched. Teproc and EFHW will comfort me, and I will sheep EFHW to make sure she trusts me. And I'm a cop.

RR in the scum QT. Well, I won't underestimate him again !

[Teproc]

I understand why scum didn't kill WW the night I expected them too now. Not only did they know I was a Watcher, they also knew WW was probably lying at that point.

[Roadrunner7671]

So tomorrow my 'self confidence crumbles' and I see if I can get myself policy lynched. Teproc and EFHW will comfort me, and I will sheep EFHW to make sure she trusts me. And I'm a cop.

RR in the scum QT. Well, I won't underestimate him again !

I had such amazing plans. But man, my endgame was so bad!