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[yuma]

There are times when trying to talk about maths is productive in mafia. This is not one of them. I suggest that we don't discuss this further and yuma doesn't shoot, or if people think he shoots he can shoot, but don't argue with maths.

The pony talks the sense.

I use the Checkov's gun argument: Because the role exists, we should use it.

Oh checkov. What a guy.

Well given the discussion around this I think I will likely be shooting. Or do people want me to give a solid YES or solid NO as to whether I shoot or not?

I think it is probably best if I give a solid answer, yeah?

Well unless I change this answer I am planning on shooting tonight.

[Teproc]

Except we don't get any information from it because it's a closed setup. We can speculate, but that's all it's going to be. I'm not taking a, what, 70% chance of killing a random townie, just for information we might be able to use on day 5.

[Teproc]

That's a solid NO.

[faust]

Except we don't get any information from it because it's a closed setup. We can speculate, but that's all it's going to be. I'm not taking a, what, 70% chance of killing a random townie, just for information we might be able to use on day 5.

All you do ever in a mafia game is speculate.

[faust]

*in a closed mafia game

[Roadrunner7671]

By the way, I think RR flavor claim had gone by mostly unnoticed. I'm not even sure if it was claim or joke

I think it was a claim.

I think it was a joke.

[Ampharos]

My vote is very much NO to using Yuma role.

[Roadrunner7671]

SOLID NO
PPE

[Teproc]

I misunderstood.

I don't like this. Not at all. I am struggling to see how you can think this is a good idea. It's highly likely that you'll hit town, possibly a PR... we get no info from it... the only upside is a low likelihood of hitting scum. Great. Just great.

[Teproc]

Except we don't get any information from it because it's a closed setup. We can speculate, but that's all it's going to be. I'm not taking a, what, 70% chance of killing a random townie, just for information we might be able to use on day 5.

All you do ever in a mafia game is speculate.

This is true. So you're saying, let's take a 70% chance of killing town for the chance to speculate some more.

We can speculate without that, thank you very much.

[Teproc]

70% might be wrong, but it's in that ballpark, correct ?

[EgorK]

I'd say no for N1. Especially if we hit scum D1

[faust]

70% might be wrong, but it's in that ballpark, correct ?

It is (11-n)/11, where n is the number of scum players. So yeah... 73% for 3 scum, 64% for 4 scum.

[faust]

I mean, the general fact is, town winrate depends strongly on how early we hit our first scum. How many games does town lose with scum lynched on D1? Only the ones in which I am scum. Well, I'm town, so yay.

Of course I realize that lynching scum > night killing scum. The point still stands.

[silverspawn]

Also if yuma is scum, I highly doubt he will not shoot just because we tell him to. At least he would be forced to shoot someone "random", because it will still be scummy if he shoots top town reads.

if he is SK, sure. But if he is mafia, he can just shoot random townie #1337 which is not a high town read, and that won't be suspicious.

[faust]

Also if yuma is scum, I highly doubt he will not shoot just because we tell him to. At least he would be forced to shoot someone "random", because it will still be scummy if he shoots top town reads.

if he is SK, sure. But if he is mafia, he can just shoot random townie #1337 which is not a high town read, and that won't be suspicious.

But then there would only be one night kill, unless you assume 2 scum teams.

[silverspawn]

vote: yuma

[faust]

Question: If yuma's plan was all along to use his role as a cover-up for night kills, why did he announce he wouldn't shoot when he first claimed?

[Roadrunner7671]

Also if yuma is scum, I highly doubt he will not shoot just because we tell him to. At least he would be forced to shoot someone "random", because it will still be scummy if he shoots top town reads.

if he is SK, sure. But if he is mafia, he can just shoot random townie #1337 which is not a high town read, and that won't be suspicious.

But then there would only be one night kill, unless you assume 2 scum teams.

Let's think about flavor. In the Marvel series, how many teams of bad guys are there?

[silverspawn]

never mind. I thought yuma had said that he thought using the power was super bad when he claimed, but apparently he did not say that.

unvote

now I don't know whom to vote for.

[silverspawn]

Question: If yuma's plan was all along to use his role as a cover-up for night kills, why did he announce he wouldn't shoot when he first claimed?

oh so he did say that? great. vote: yuma

[faust]

Also if yuma is scum, I highly doubt he will not shoot just because we tell him to. At least he would be forced to shoot someone "random", because it will still be scummy if he shoots top town reads.

if he is SK, sure. But if he is mafia, he can just shoot random townie #1337 which is not a high town read, and that won't be suspicious.

But then there would only be one night kill, unless you assume 2 scum teams.

Let's think about flavor. In the Marvel series, how many teams of bad guys are there?

More than 1.

[Teproc]

Also if yuma is scum, I highly doubt he will not shoot just because we tell him to. At least he would be forced to shoot someone "random", because it will still be scummy if he shoots top town reads.

if he is SK, sure. But if he is mafia, he can just shoot random townie #1337 which is not a high town read, and that won't be suspicious.

But then there would only be one night kill, unless you assume 2 scum teams.

Let's think about flavor. In the Marvel series, how many teams of bad guys are there?

I'm no expert, but it's over 9000. Clearly we're all scum.

[silverspawn]

Let us please not give unknownAlignment!yuma a chance to safely kill a townie if the consensus of whether or not it's even pro town if it works as claimed is completely divisive.

[silverspawn]

oh, and as for when using it is better than night 1:

I think there are a couple of situations where it's good. Like, if you have 3 town and 1 scum left alive, then the extra shot is 'free'