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[EgorK]

Hm, if we fully believe yuma with his claim it is advantageous for town to use his role. Absent mafia NK it is neutral, but because of mafia NK there is chance that targets would be same, which sways shooting in town favor

I highly doubt the math checks out on that, but I'll let the competent people tackle that. faust ? 2.7 ?

Just the moment I hoped my math masters and participation in school/university olympiads meant something

[yuma]

yuma, since when do you ask for permission to vote someone ? Anyway, EgorK has two votes right now.

since I didn't read 2 days worth of posts....

[Witherweaver]

Oh, I see, he's probably operating on assumption 1.

[Witherweaver]

Someone should quote every post made since Yuma left with "ATTENTION: YUMA READ".

I'm too lazy to be that someone.

[silverspawn]

On the other hand, the aspect you listed is pretty minor, though not inconsequential.

[yuma]

And also he probably can't kill himself (can you, yuma?) which makes it even better. But we make the game much more variative, so I'd say he should do it only if we lynch town

can't kill myself

[Teproc]

Hm, if we fully believe yuma with his claim it is advantageous for town to use his role. Absent mafia NK it is neutral, but because of mafia NK there is chance that targets would be same, which sways shooting in town favor

I highly doubt the math checks out on that, but I'll let the competent people tackle that. faust ? 2.7 ?

Just the moment I hoped my math masters and participation in school/university olympiads meant something

Didn't know about that. Still skeptical though.

[EgorK]

Absent mafia NK it is neutral

I really doubt that. Do you have any reason to think it?

There are two aspects that make it differ from neutral. It could only be neutral if they fully balance each other out

- the game is roughly balanced around random death / town death. Increasing the former is good. this makes it better
- the game is intentionally balanced to let scum win with random lynches, because town has reads. this makes it worse.

But we have to do significantly better than random here as one option is probably out (yuma probably can't kill himself) and one would not lead to bad outcome even when it should (i. e. yuma killing same person as mafia)

Anyway I agree we should only do this if we need to increase variance, i. e. if we lynch town. Probably not even N1

[Teproc]

Hm, if we fully believe yuma with his claim it is advantageous for town to use his role. Absent mafia NK it is neutral, but because of mafia NK there is chance that targets would be same, which sways shooting in town favor

I highly doubt the math checks out on that, but I'll let the competent people tackle that. faust ? 2.7 ?

Just the moment I hoped my math masters and participation in school/university olympiads meant something

Didn't know about that. Still skeptical though.

Like : what is the likelihood that yuma hits scum ? Assuming 3 scum, removing him, that's 3/12. If we account for the mafia NK, thats 3 scum kills, 11 town kills, 1 no kill. Don't see how that adds up to pro-town, or am Ihorribly wrong somewhere ?

PPE : I guess we're assuming a mislynch. That's still 3/10/1.

[Teproc]

I can't count. That's 3 scum, 8 townies, so 3 scum kills, 7 town kills, 1 no kill. Still looks bad.

[silverspawn]

Just the moment I hoped my math masters and participation in school/university olympiads meant something

okay, this is only partially directed at you, but it is a very valuable life lesson, and I feel the need to say it.

experience in a certain area is a really shitty metric for who's likely right in an argument that takes place in this area. this is especially true if both persons discussing are reasonably intelligent and both know a little bit about the subject. In fact it's not only not a strong indication, it's almost entirely worthless.

the probability discussion is a great example. I am snapping here because this comment you made bothers me

Silver, if you is not persuaded by arguments provided by Haddock (for some reason, they are quite clear and convincing), can you just take it from someone who was candidate for Russian IMO team and won both Google CodeJam and TopCoder Open (and probability is quite popular theme in this competitions) that he is correct.

People who have spent a lifetime studying something reach vastly different conclusions all the time, every day. Just take a look at politics.

[iguanaiguana]

Ampharos, on the other hand, confuses me. It always reminds me of Amorphis.

Right, given all the games of f.ds mafia they've played in, it must be pretty annoying.

It's a bad nickname in a mafia context because it's an acronym referring to an avatar. There's no way you'd be able to guess that without context, and what if he changes his avatar ? I guess it's fine in this game because it's been discussed, but if it becomes a thing it's going to have to be very confusing to anyone who hasn't played with Ampharos before.

All of which is pretty unimportant though. Anyone want to lynch e ?

PPE : E=2.7 is something you can understand though. I'm horrible at math and did not know what it was, but when I saw someoneuse it I looked at the player list, google 2.7etc. and got it. Can't do that with YPG.

momsalon was a similarly bad nickname, though at least it resembled the name. No one was using it by the time I got here though, s I never got to rant about it.

I disagree with everything unimportant in this post. You can google Ampharos, and you  will find a yellow pokemon, even if Ampharos changes his avatar. That said, I don't like the acronym YPG either. I also don't like the acronyms II, Igu, Igua or Iguanda, but that's all beside the point.

I agree with the actual content of this post. Ampharos is a bad lynch. He's towny, and the fact that he has never played with Yuma, hasn't read previous games, and is saying he doesn't know how to read Yuma is reason to give him slack for trying to push a Yuma lynch, not reason to go after him.

If it was Awaclus OTOH pushing a Yuma lynch, one would expect him to know better. Oh wait, Awaclus was pushing a Yuma lynch.

Everyone is saying they're fine with an Awaclus lynch. Well, I'll say that I like it a lot better than an Ampharos lynch.

Any takers?

Votes speak louder than words.

I am tired of voting for people and then no one else doing it, and then it not mattering. The only popular lynches in the past couple IRL days are the only two lynches I don't want to lynch (Ampharos, Yuma), hence I haven't been saying much. I guess I thought I should at least try to make something else happen.

But then right after that, Yuma said 'Is EgorK still happening?' and I thought I'd better not switch off, because he's still my top scumread.

[Awaclus]

People who have spent a lifetime studying something reach vastly different conclusions all the time, every day. Just take a look at politics.

Do other countries actually have politicians who have spent a lifetime studying something relevant? We don't have that in Finland.

[Awaclus]

The only popular lynches in the past couple IRL days are the only two lynches I don't want to lynch (Ampharos, Yuma)

Why don't you want to lynch someone who's blatantly obviously lying about being town?

[Teproc]

Economics would possibly be a better example.

Awaclus, do you have anything to talk about beside yuma ?

[Witherweaver]

Absent mafia NK it is neutral

I really doubt that. Do you have any reason to think it?

There are two aspects that make it differ from neutral. It could only be neutral if they fully balance each other out

- the game is roughly balanced around random death / town death. Increasing the former is good. this makes it better
- the game is intentionally balanced to let scum win with random lynches, because town has reads. this makes it worse.

But we have to do significantly better than random here as one option is probably out (yuma probably can't kill himself) and one would not lead to bad outcome even when it should (i. e. yuma killing same person as mafia)

Anyway I agree we should only do this if we need to increase variance, i. e. if we lynch town. Probably not even N1

This is actually a good point (that Yuma can't kill himself).  Makes Yuma ability more pro-town when he's town and more pro-scum when he's scum.

[Awaclus]

Awaclus, do you have anything to talk about beside yuma ?

I can also talk about my meta.

[Witherweaver]

I can't count. That's 3 scum, 8 townies, so 3 scum kills, 7 town kills, 1 no kill. Still looks bad.

The point their making is scum and townie are not equally weighted.  If, for instance, you simulated the game so that random kills and random PR targets with 3 scum and 8 townies with the no-kill means scum/town wins 50/50 (or close to it), then it's actually not bad if we lynch town today and bad if we lynch scum.

Of course, I just realized there that my previous idea of Yuma not targetting self increasing his faction's benefit is made moot by the assumption of game being balanced in the above way.

[Teproc]

I see.

That's a horrible argument. A mislynch is not a disaster because it generates info. This is just saying "welp, let's see what the RNG decides".

[faust]

also.... assuming I live... do people want me to shoot tonight?

I feel like I am starting to like the idea of shooting tonight a bit more. Unless we hit scum, then I think I like it less. But if everyone (or even a significant minority) is panic-mode and doesn't think I should then I won't.

I don't like it. But then, I don't like random elements in any game. I can see that it might be worthwile. You can't shoot yourself, right? So the chance to hit scum would already be greater than random I guess.

[Ampharos]

I wouldn't shoot if I were you.  Too much chance to hit town.

[Witherweaver]

I see.

That's a horrible argument. A mislynch is not a disaster because it generates info. This is just saying "welp, let's see what the RNG decides".

Well,  yes. 

[EgorK]

Just the moment I hoped my math masters and participation in school/university olympiads meant something

okay, this is only partially directed at you, but it is a very valuable life lesson, and I feel the need to say it.

experience in a certain area is a really shitty metric for who's likely right in an argument that takes place in this area. this is especially true if both persons discussing are reasonably intelligent and both know a little bit about the subject. In fact it's not only not a strong indication, it's almost entirely worthless.

the probability discussion is a great example. I am snapping here because this comment you made bothers me

Silver, if you is not persuaded by arguments provided by Haddock (for some reason, they are quite clear and convincing), can you just take it from someone who was candidate for Russian IMO team and won both Google CodeJam and TopCoder Open (and probability is quite popular theme in this competitions) that he is correct.

People who have spent a lifetime studying something reach vastly different conclusions all the time, every day. Just take a look at politics.

That's why I studied math and not politics. And I stopped to read that topic when it had gone from 2 pages to 5 in like an hour. I still firmly believe that given the assumptions Haddock made his answer is right. Assumptions may be wrong though

Anyway, what I said was a bit arrogant, sorry. I just wanted people to note that the fact that scum NK and yuma kill can target same person makes yuma kill a bit better. I maybe got too excited about that

[EgorK]

Also the decision to shot should not be done based on what you feel, but mostly based on math

[faust]

So from a game-theory POV, I probably agree with what Egor said - shooting will probably be beneficial. I mean, I don't like the role, but it also has the plus side of semi-confirming yuma, yes? Because scum can't have two night kills. He could be third-party I guess, but he's be confirmed non-mafia.

Alright, unvote I think... this is not the worst plan ever.