Topic: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ The ORDER OF THE PHOENIX WINS (Read 168596 times)

ashersky · « **Reply #1375 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:05:05 pm »

Man, there's no way to account for 3 kills without a vig. So yes, faust is definitely cleared.

ashersky · « **Reply #1376 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:05:58 pm »

Even with the final hidden town PR, that doesn't affect the 3 kills theorum, so we are safe.

I think Rolecop claims targets if they are alive.
I think no one else claims.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1377 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:11:57 pm »

Quote from: ashersky on November 27, 2015, 05:04:17 pm

The mafiascum site sucks.

It says PPTTTTT would be Goon, Bus Driver, SK. Are we assuming 2-Man mafia team then? Or is the second goon just not listed?

If we have a Rolecop, given all the goons are dead, he's a full cop, btw. So results would be useful.

yeah, c9++ and this too have 2-scum teams if enough T's are rolled. Which is one reason why I very much prefer asher9++ over it.

I don't think the description is unclear though. I just don't agree with it.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1378 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:12:35 pm »

Okay, yeah, I guess everyone can consider claiming investigative results.

ashersky · « **Reply #1379 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:15:21 pm »

I would sort of assume that anyone who had caught scum would have said something by now. I only point out that Role Cop vanilla results would be useful if they are on someone alive in case someone who hasn't been paying attention needed reminding.

ashersky · « **Reply #1380 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:16:30 pm »

If there's a tracker -- track whomever you think is most likely to live, not who you think is most likely scum. You can easily figure out why this is the best plan.

Haddock · « **Reply #1381 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:26:12 pm »

I want the flip, but I really want faust to come back first and tell us who (if anyone) he's going to shoot in the two possible situations, ie. gkrieg town or gkrieg scum.

I see no reason not to do it and it's potentially gamewinning...

faust · « **Reply #1382 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:29:32 pm »

Quote from: Haddock on November 27, 2015, 05:26:12 pm

I want the flip, but I really want faust to come back first and tell us who (if anyone) he's going to shoot in the two possible situations, ie. gkrieg town or gkrieg scum.

I see no reason not to do it and it's potentially gamewinning...

I see a reason not to do it.

Haddock · « **Reply #1383 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:31:46 pm »

OK.
If there's a reason I'm missing to not do it that's fine.
I just hadn't had a response on it so far, wanted to make sure people were seeing the suggestion.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1384 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:33:41 pm »

well I don't see any reason for doing it, except for the one that discussing it further could prevent faust from making a mistake, which I don't think is a very good reason.

ashersky · « **Reply #1385 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:34:18 pm »

If the RB is still in play, announcing his target would tell mafia whether or not to block. Now, he could WIFOM it, but why risk it?

(Hint: he's shooting me if he shoots.)

I think if we got scum here, it doesn't really matter, make sure to no lynch with 1 v 3 to get LYLO. Scum shoots faust, faust shoot scum and we win or town and we no lynch to get to 1 v 2.

ashersky · « **Reply #1386 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:35:34 pm »

A mislynch here makes scum think -- go for the IC or the other scum? SK probably has BP, so mafia probably kills faust. Unless they both shoot the Sk...

So many possibilities! EFHW must be excited.

faust · « **Reply #1387 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:37:37 pm »

Quote from: ashersky on November 27, 2015, 05:34:18 pm

If the RB is still in play, announcing his target would tell mafia whether or not to block. Now, he could WIFOM it, but why risk it?

(Hint: he's shooting me if he shoots.)

Why would I need to WIFOM anything if you do all the WIFOMing for me?

EFHW · « **Reply #1388 on:** November 27, 2015, 05:47:12 pm »

Vote Count 3.final

gkrieg (4): silverspawn, Hydrad, Haddock, faust
Haddock (1): ashersky
Hydrad (1): gkrieg

not voting (1): Joseph

With 7 alive it took 4 to lynch.

Initially several people were very keen to make Mad Eye Moody cross the line, but once it became clear that it was he who had successfully identified Sirius as an imposter, Mad Eye became trusted among the group. He took command, as he had been itching to do all along, being a former Head of the Auror Office. People were saddened by the deaths of Hermione and Neville, but took heart at the death of Malfoy. Some people thought Lupin could be the third Death Eater, but in the end they settled on Kingsley. Kingsley, being universally liked and trusted in the wizarding community, was not an obvious choice at first, but his protection of the fake Harry and his uncharacteristic seeming lack of attention in general made people suspicious. And they were right! It was Antonin Dolohov (aka gkrieg13), Death Eater Dueler who was sucked into the Death Arch. Kingsley Shackelford had never been there at all.

Orders due Sat. 4 pm (I'm on planes most of Sunday, 5 hours ahead here) Day 4 to start at 5 p.m.

THREAD LOCKED

EFHW · « **Reply #1389 on:** November 28, 2015, 04:24:13 pm »

After Dolohov had disappeared behind the curtain, there was a bright flash of white light, a really loud bang, and thick smoke came out of the Arch and took several moments to dissipate. When their vision had cleared, the group saw Luna -- on the other side of the line. Luna seemed ridiculously unconcerned about her impending death. “Daddy says you can always tell a serial killer because wrackspurts won't go in their ears. I think the Department of Mysteries has a room dedicated to studying wrackspurts - you just have to find it. Don’t worry about me, I’ll be fine.” Tonks and Lupin exchanged incredulous looks. At that very moment a dirigible plum appeared over her head. She grabbed on just as everyone felt the familiar depression that always announced the arrival of the Dementers. The Dementers were angry. They wanted a victim. So as she was spirited away Luna (aka ashersky) cried out “Expecto Patronum!” and her hare Patronus shot from her wand and chased away the Dementers. A quickly fading “I’m a Member of the Order of the Phoenix” was the last they heard from her.

“Since the Dementers came, I guess we know she really was in the Order,” said Professor McGonagall.

“And Luna’s Patronus is a hare,” added Ginny. (It remains inexplicable why none of them thought then or earlier to force everyone to produce their Patronuses to prove who they were.)

Vote Count 4.0

not voting (5): faust, Haddock, Hydrad, Joseph, silverspawn

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Day 4 ends Sunday, Dec. 6th at 4 p.m.

THREAD UNLOCKED

faust · « **Reply #1390 on:** November 28, 2015, 04:58:09 pm »

Interesting(TM). I am not dead for some reason.

I did not shoot ashersky, so that was the SK kill. We might want our last remaining PR to claim now. Thoughts?

Haddock · « **Reply #1391 on:** November 28, 2015, 05:45:18 pm »

I have no idea how you're still alive, faust, but it's great news.

As for last PR claiming, yeah I think that's the best idea here, having two ICs sounds really good. That way if we mislynch we still definitely have an IC tomorrow.

Sadly it is only an extra IC, my PR isn't amazingly useful in this situation.

I am the Vengeful.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1392 on:** November 28, 2015, 06:19:16 pm »

wat. why would the SK shoot ash

he's crazy. I'd have gone after ash for the lynch.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1393 on:** November 28, 2015, 06:21:47 pm »

Quote from: Haddock on November 28, 2015, 05:45:18 pm

I have no idea how you're still alive, faust, but it's great news.

As for last PR claiming, yeah I think that's the best idea here, having two ICs sounds really good. That way if we mislynch we still definitely have an IC tomorrow.

Sadly it is only an extra IC, my PR isn't amazingly useful in this situation.

I am the Vengeful.

that's the only bad news, because now my strongest town read is worthelss

silverspawn · « **Reply #1394 on:** November 28, 2015, 06:22:12 pm »

so it's Hydrad or Joseph.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1395 on:** November 28, 2015, 06:24:10 pm »

Quote from: faust on November 28, 2015, 04:58:09 pm

Interesting(TM). I am not dead for some reason.

I did not shoot ashersky, so that was the SK kill. We might want our last remaining PR to claim now. Thoughts?

I did a bit of PR theorizing during the night. I think the chance for a protective role was only 20%, so it is weird.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1396 on:** November 28, 2015, 06:29:44 pm »

So, there is one setup question left that I see

Assuming...

we lynch town today (-> 4)
faust shoots town in the night (-> 3)
SK kills faust in the night (-> 2)
SK and Haddock no-lynch (-> 2)

Night 5 starts with Haddock and the SK alive. What happens?

silverspawn · « **Reply #1397 on:** November 28, 2015, 06:37:34 pm »

In this setup our wincon is worded as

Quote

Win condition: You win when all threats to the Order have been eliminated and there is at least one member of the Order of the Phoenix alive.

So the way I see it, either SK wins because he is the only player alive at the moment between vengeful's death and the return kill, or no-one wins.

EFHW, can you clarify this?

Anyway, doesn't look like town wins, so we just have to lynch/kill the SK.

Haddock · « **Reply #1398 on:** November 28, 2015, 06:44:25 pm »

Quote from: silverspawn on November 28, 2015, 06:19:16 pm

wat. why would the SK shoot ash

he's crazy. I'd have gone after ash for the lynch.

I can only think he assumed that the last PR was a doctor and would protect faust. But in light of this:

Quote from: silverspawn on November 28, 2015, 06:24:10 pm

I did a bit of PR theorizing during the night. I think the chance for a protective role was only 20%, so it is weird.

That might implicate a newish player, outthinking themselves? (I make it only 10%, by the way, it's just the same as the chance of rolling a single P, which is (75-65)/100=10%...)

Quote from: silverspawn on November 28, 2015, 06:29:44 pm

So, there is one setup question left that I see

Assuming...

we lynch town today (-> 4)
faust shoots town in the night (-> 3)
SK kills faust in the night (-> 2)
SK and Haddock no-lynch (-> 2)

Night 5 starts with Haddock and the SK alive. What happens?

Huh? I just die. I can only vengekill if I'm lynched... I'll double check my PM, but pretty sure.

I'm kicking myself here for not claiming some other PR to try to draw out a counterclaim. Then just lynching me would win the game. But no scum will counterclaim knowing I'm vengeful.

Quote from: silverspawn on November 28, 2015, 06:21:47 pm

that's the only bad news, because now my strongest town read is worthelss

Sadly my townread on you now disappears and must be replaced by something pretty close to null (except up to the point above about experienced players). You've been towny and scumhunting well so far, but SKs can do that too.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1399 on:** November 28, 2015, 06:45:56 pm »

Quote from: Haddock on November 28, 2015, 06:44:25 pm

Huh? I just die. I can only vengekill if I'm lynched... I'll double check my PM, but pretty sure.

oh. okay. well it looked like it doesn't work anyway.

Dominion Strategy Forum

News:

Author Topic: M71 - Harry Potter II: JK++ The ORDER OF THE PHOENIX WINS (Read 168596 times)