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Author Topic: Upswing, downswing  (Read 3901 times)

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Elanchana

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Upswing, downswing
« on: September 25, 2015, 01:10:18 am »
0

Does Goko's RNG cause good and bad luck streaks? I've experienced this one too many times when I win a ton of games in a row (with or without help) and get fooled into thinking I'm playing better, and then I lose a ton of games in a row in situations that can't possibly be skill-based. And I've seen other people complain about this too.

I just find it really odd that something that's supposed to be randomized can cause such un-random-seeming results. I've even gotten to the point when I expect a swing to happen at a certain time, and today I was pretty pleased when the downswing started right after I launched into my post-5k unrated binge. So there's that.
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blueblimp

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2015, 01:46:46 am »
+8

I just find it really odd that something that's supposed to be randomized can cause such un-random-seeming results.
That's normal.
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ConMan

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2015, 02:06:01 am »
+1

It's entirely possible that you can have long streaks in a random string, and if you assume that the result of every game you play is kind of like flipping a coin that's biased based on the relative skill of yourself and your opponent, then yes you're going to have streaks. It's hard to quantify how long they'll be, but they will definitely happen more often than if you were asked to list your expected run of wins and losses for the same number of games.

For example, assuming that you played 1000 games with opponents selected from your ranking 20%*, and the results of those games were won by you with probability (your rating)/(your rating + their rating), then it's true that about half of your streaks will be of length 1, but you can still expect there to be about 30 or so runs of length 5 or longer, including potentially some very long ones (at least a few 7 or 8 length streaks, and probably one or two that are 10 or longer).

There are also likely some psychological factors involved - possibly in how you perceive your runs, because it's possible that you notice the longer runs more than the shorter ones, and possibly even conflate two long runs separated by a short one (say you win 4, lose 1, then win another 5, some part of your brain may decide that the loss "doesn't count"); but also possibly in that when you're doing poorly you unconsciously act in ways that make it more likely that you'll play worse and vice versa.

So I wouldn't rule out pure chance as being the driver for it, especially since for it to be an RNG problem it would have to somehow consistently favour one player over another across a stretch of games before switching over, which seems rather difficult to cause.

* I got these results through some basic simulation, and it looks like it doesn't actually matter how much your rating you go if you assume that within that spread your opponents are uniformly distributed. I haven't checked to see what happens if you apply, say, a power law to the spread of ratings.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2015, 02:07:15 am »
+4

On top of the fact that human brains like to see patterns and than actual randomness is much streakier than people think, ask yourself this:

The computer generates numbers that determine things like shuffling.  How would it know which random numbers would be good for you and which ones would be bad for you?  Outside of the first shuffle, how would it know that putting Card #7 and Card #3 in the same hand twice in a row is terrible for you?  I mean obviously it doesn't know anything, but the point is that it isn't calculating what is a good or bad hand and deciding, it is putting a list of numbers in a (pseudo)random order.
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BadAssMutha

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2015, 07:26:46 am »
+2

The simple fact is, every RNG causes streaks of good and bad "luck".
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DG

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2015, 08:39:29 am »
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Does Goko's RNG cause good and bad luck streaks? I've experienced this one too many times when I win a ton of games in a row (with or without help) and get fooled into thinking I'm playing better, and then I lose a ton of games in a row in situations that can't possibly be skill-based. And I've seen other people complain about this too.

This is normal. You can play a load of games against the bots, where you know exactly how they consistently play, and see exactly the same lucky streaks. Random generation will give you a series of games where you are 3rd or 4th player, have a 5/2 split when you need to buy familiars, and it goes downhill from there. Furthermore, if a RNG did not produce unlikely events and streaks then it could again be evidence that the generation was not actually random.
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popsofctown

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2015, 09:36:00 am »
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You'd need win streaks and loss streak of size 50 or so to be able to decide anything conclusive.
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Cave-o-sapien

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2015, 02:25:59 pm »
+2

This has nothing to do with the RNG and everything to do with chemtrails.
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theright555J

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2015, 02:55:32 pm »
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So that begs the next question:  Using a Goko pro rating of 5000 as a benchmark, how high does one need to get to guarantee not to dip down below 5000 again despite the streakiness?  I know about normal distributions and whatnot...I really think this is the issue that is at hand.  It is just so devastating to get up to like 5400 and L34 and then next week be back at 4400 and L27.
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popsofctown

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2015, 03:38:13 pm »
+1

So that begs the next question:  Using a Goko pro rating of 5000 as a benchmark, how high does one need to get to guarantee not to dip down below 5000 again despite the streakiness?  I know about normal distributions and whatnot...I really think this is the issue that is at hand.  It is just so devastating to get up to like 5400 and L34 and then next week be back at 4400 and L27.

You have to specify with p<0.005 or something.  I mean it's possible, though very unlikely, for the best Dominion player on the planet to play 4 months and have such bad luck he drops below 5000
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markusin

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2015, 04:02:20 pm »
0

So that begs the next question:  Using a Goko pro rating of 5000 as a benchmark, how high does one need to get to guarantee not to dip down below 5000 again despite the streakiness?  I know about normal distributions and whatnot...I really think this is the issue that is at hand.  It is just so devastating to get up to like 5400 and L34 and then next week be back at 4400 and L27.

You have to specify with p<0.005 or something.  I mean it's possible, though very unlikely, for the best Dominion player on the planet to play 4 months and have such bad luck he drops below 5000
Are we assuming the person is playing every day? The rating drift is pretty strong on Goko.
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TrojH

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Re: Upswing, downswing
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2015, 09:39:52 pm »
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So that begs the next question:  Using a Goko pro rating of 5000 as a benchmark, how high does one need to get to guarantee not to dip down below 5000 again despite the streakiness?

This depends on how much you avoid opponents that are rated much lower than you.

If, like me, you just play against whatever opponents are available, then I don't think ANY rating is safe.
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