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Author Topic: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Game Over, Town wins!)  (Read 126222 times)

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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #825 on: June 28, 2015, 08:25:11 pm »

And it'll at least get the lurkers to post.
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Seprix

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #826 on: June 28, 2015, 08:58:14 pm »

Just acknowledge that I'm a virtual IC so we can move on from there.

I will not, because people can't just declare themselves innocent and expect everyone else to follow the Pied Piper without a reason.
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Seprix

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #827 on: June 28, 2015, 08:59:40 pm »

...that hint that there is a theme to the scum flavor-flavor names seems unlikely to be helpful at all without some scum flips to base it on.  That might be worth talking about at some point I guess,..
should we talk about this? Does anyone know the flavor?

I'm thinking it might be more useful to find the third scum once we have 2 scum flips to look for a pattern.  But it would be useful if we're all locked into our flavor-flavor claims.

I vote we do a flavor-flavor claim.  And then, in a different order, a flavor claim.  Anyone disagree?

Hydrad should probably call the orders.  We've got enough time in the day today that we probably have nothing to lose by this, and maybe it gains us some interactions.  I would really like to see ADK/Mail-mi/Seprix/Pacovf and Skip as the earlier claims though.  But it should probably be up to the IC.

It's only Day 2. We lynched scum first day. We're not losing, we shouldn't give scum any advantages right now.
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pacovf

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #828 on: June 28, 2015, 09:04:05 pm »

Mafia players have Pony-Mafia flavour name fake claims, so there's not anything to gain from this. Unless a Mafia player gets confused and posts his real Pony-Mafia flavour name, I guess.
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Seprix

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #829 on: June 28, 2015, 09:23:26 pm »

Mafia players have Pony-Mafia flavour name fake claims, so there's not anything to gain from this. Unless a Mafia player gets confused and posts his real Pony-Mafia flavour name, I guess.

And what little chance of that happening just vanished if they read this post. But yeah, wasn't going to happen realistically. :p
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #830 on: June 28, 2015, 09:50:05 pm »

So what advantage are scum getting from this Seprix?
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Seprix

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #831 on: June 28, 2015, 09:51:49 pm »

So what advantage are scum getting from this Seprix?

It seems incredibly obvious. If we all reveal our roles at the same time, bye bye cop, doctor, useful roles. As you said D1, we shouldn't discuss the game yet.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #832 on: June 28, 2015, 09:53:56 pm »

So what advantage are scum getting from this Seprix?

It seems incredibly obvious. If we all reveal our roles at the same time, bye bye cop, doctor, useful roles. As you said D1, we shouldn't discuss the game yet.

At what point did it look like I was suggesting we claim our roles?
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Seprix

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #833 on: June 28, 2015, 09:59:37 pm »

So what advantage are scum getting from this Seprix?

It seems incredibly obvious. If we all reveal our roles at the same time, bye bye cop, doctor, useful roles. As you said D1, we shouldn't discuss the game yet.

At what point did it look like I was suggesting we claim our roles?

My bad, I read flavor as roles.
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Seprix

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #834 on: June 28, 2015, 10:00:54 pm »

Man, I don't think I've been correct about a single thing this entire game. I defended Awaclus, I posted something long about WW!scum that instantly got debunked because I read a post out of context, and now I'm not even reading words right.
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chairs

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #835 on: June 29, 2015, 12:05:46 am »

I shoved all-in on Awaclus repeatedly and hard. Do you really think I'd do that as scum D1?

Seprix

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #836 on: June 29, 2015, 12:10:38 am »

I shoved all-in on Awaclus repeatedly and hard. Do you really think I'd do that as scum D1?

It's not likely, but there are these arguments to be made:

1. Scum could anticipate this line of thinking. But wait, Seprix. Why would chairs lynch Awaclus if they were scumbuddies? That makes no sense! Well, that leads to my next point.

2. Chairs could not back out of his read because it got too hot and he knew exactly what would entail if he backed out before the near inevitable lynch. Scum votes for scum sometimes to mix it up, I propose that is what you could have done. And then the wagon started hard, and then boom, you had a problem on your hands.

But all of this is theoretical and not too likely. So yes, I would consider you town.
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Teproc

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #837 on: June 29, 2015, 05:29:38 am »

Claiming flavor seems like a waste of time. I have a hard time imagining scum not having mod-provided fakeclaims here.

chairs' first vote for Awaclus is indeed very townie, but it's severly undercut by him switching to Seprix at the first opportunity. After that he came back when the lynch was already pretty inevitable. chairs is far from a top sspect, but he's far from an IC as well. Aside from Hydrad, only UoS is IC-ish.
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Teproc

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #838 on: June 29, 2015, 05:30:22 am »

There's no need to go to deadline guys.
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pacovf

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #839 on: June 29, 2015, 08:01:51 am »

We are still waiting for ADK's defense though.
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Seprix

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #840 on: June 29, 2015, 09:40:30 am »

Hydrad was Twilight Sparkle while Awaclus was playing as Twilight Sparkle. Probably just a coincidence though. I don't see any real meaning there.
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pacovf

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #841 on: June 29, 2015, 09:43:22 am »

It's the other way around. Hydrad is Rarity, playing as Twilight Sparkle.
Awaclus was Twilight Sparkle, playing as Gilda, with whatever unknown Pony-Mafia flavour fakeclaim.

It's kind of entertaining to discuss needlessly contrived setups, but I don't see what's to win in doing so.
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pacovf

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #842 on: June 29, 2015, 09:45:39 am »

chairs' first vote for Awaclus is indeed very townie, but it's severly undercut by him switching to Seprix at the first opportunity. After that he came back when the lynch was already pretty inevitable. chairs is far from a top sspect, but he's far from an IC as well. Aside from Hydrad, only UoS is IC-ish.

Missed this first time around. I think WW is pretty IC-ish too. Granted, a little bit less than UoS.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #843 on: June 29, 2015, 10:55:27 am »

Okay, let's try this:

While I'm not totally sold on pacovf, he's obviously trying, if he's scum he'll have plenty of time to slip up later, and looking back I like some of his replies to my pressure.

So my 3-player lynch pool is:

ADK
Mail-mi
Seprix

WW, Teproc, Hydrad: you guys are all strong town reads for me.  3 man lynch pool from each of you, please?  (3 is somewhat arbitrary, if you really must have 1,2, or 4, go for it I guess.)
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Witherweaver

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #844 on: June 29, 2015, 11:01:57 am »

I would prefer one of:

Mail-Mi
Pacovf

(Note they were both off wagon).  I would be willing to do:

ADK
Seprix

(They were the last two on wagon, and the scummiest on wagon, and probably the only possible scum on wagon save the Chairs factor.)
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #845 on: June 29, 2015, 11:08:18 am »


There's a fundamental difference between the two: Awaclus would strictly be a lurker lynch. That means no accountability whatsoever if we lynch him. Nobody voting for mail-mi is doing so because of his lack of content, it's because what little there is, is scummy, so they won't be able to deflect responsibility tomorrow (should he happen to flip town).

That being said, I don't like the way Awaclus has been lurking. Most lurkers are just passive, not checking the game all that often, then posting a quick thought or two when they log in. Awaclus has been following the game closely, and just choosing not to post anything. Normally I would argue very strongly against a D1 lurker lynch, but I wouldn't feel so strongly about it in this specific case. Still, I would prefer a lynch elsewhere.

The problem is that you offer three lynches. WW and skip are town, IMHO, and Awaclus is a lurker lynch. So there's no common ground between our positions.

Ugh, I know I just took Pacovf off the table for me, but this post really pings me.  It looks like Pacovf picked up on Awaclus' scum strategy here, and yet is opposed to lynching him later.  For some reason I wasn't looking this early when I was looking at the wagon before.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #846 on: June 29, 2015, 11:24:44 am »

Awaclus and WW, you guys haven't weighed in on the Mail-mi wagon.  What do you think of it?

Not a huge fan of it, but I could do it if there's nothing better. I think it's better than WW at least.

When I asked Awaclus why Mail-mi was better than WW he never gave a reason.  At this point he only had Hydrad's placeholder vote of course, so he was certainly not feeling pressured yet.  I think given Awaclus' flip, strategy, and reply that the reason he didn't have a reason was obviously because there was no reason and he hadn't actually thought about this in any detail.  But what does Awaclus very slightly preferring a Mail-mi lynch over a WW lynch without contributing anything tell us?

For me, I think it makes Mail-mi somewhat more likely to be scum.  What do you guys think?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #847 on: June 29, 2015, 11:30:37 am »

Realizing that's a bit unclear:

Awaclus knows Mail-mi and WW's alignment.  Awaclus has decided to avoid contributing or making any firm statements in the game.

If we lynch Mail-mi and he is scum or lynch WW and he is town, Awaclus looks like he's paying attention and has some insight.

Now it's also possible that Awaclus wanted us to lynch Mail-mi because Mail-mi is town, but I think even refusing-to-be-committal Awaclus could have given it stronger support than that, especially as Mail-mi was the center of discussion at the moment and had (I think) 3 votes and a couple other people making non-committal noises.  And especially as his own perceived town meta, while it involves not ever making a case apparently, certainly allows for having an opinion beyond "if no one better comes along."

I can see either interpretation, but I think this is still a point against Mail-mi.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #848 on: June 29, 2015, 11:36:23 am »

Awaclus and WW, you guys haven't weighed in on the Mail-mi wagon.  What do you think of it?

Not a huge fan of it, but I could do it if there's nothing better. I think it's better than WW at least.

When I asked Awaclus why Mail-mi was better than WW he never gave a reason.  At this point he only had Hydrad's placeholder vote of course, so he was certainly not feeling pressured yet.  I think given Awaclus' flip, strategy, and reply that the reason he didn't have a reason was obviously because there was no reason and he hadn't actually thought about this in any detail.  But what does Awaclus very slightly preferring a Mail-mi lynch over a WW lynch without contributing anything tell us?

For me, I think it makes Mail-mi somewhat more likely to be scum.  What do you guys think?

Sounds a little less likely that Mail-Mi was his partner.  Him saying nothing about the wagon at all is suspicious, but there was a lot he didn't say on.  Hard to judge, but I don't quite get a partner vibe from his comment.

His vote was on Seprix at the time (he was the only one), if that means anything.
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chairs

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Re: M64: Pony-Mafia Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #849 on: June 29, 2015, 11:55:44 am »

I see what UoS is saying regarding scum!mail-mi but I don't think you go that route as scum.

I think in Awaclus's position you avoid mentioning your partner entirely or toss a meaningless vote on them to throw off suspicion... which is to say, Seprix now looks scummier to me.
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