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[UmbrageOfSnow]

Think we can learn anything from this list?

No.

Not to mention WW not dying D1 is pretty odd, though I guess the safe lynch would be Joseph.

It's not that odd.  Like I said, I thought for sure it would be me or Teproc (with a chance of WW) and then on reflection realized Joe makes much more sense as a target after all.  Think about it, now we have to worry more about fake PR claims and if they hit a PR with their next night kill (and they probably had to kill Joe sooner or later), now we actually lose that PR for good.  In the long game, it makes more sense here I think.

Analyzing the wagon come D1 end, and given Seprix's Law of Mafia Average (One/Two scum tends to jump on wagon, The rest stay off wagon),

You're naming this after yourself, really??  You did not invent this.

This could easily be scum!WW defending Awaclus there.

That's not a defense

We have mail-Mi, Pacovf and Skip. Skip seems townie, because he's quite overeager, which is typical for newer players. Pacovf has been strong town thus far.

Looks like a WW/Awaclus/Mail-Mi scum team so far.

I don't think it's really worth it trying to call the scumteam.  Let's just lynch the next scum for now, then worry about the team.

I do actually really like the idea of lynching off-wagon today, it seems unlikely that both scum would bus their partner day 1.  On the other hand, you and ADK did jump on after Awaclus started acting so scummy that it seemed kind of inevitable.  But yeah, lynching completely off wagon sounds like a good idea to me.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Let's talk about that not-lynching-lurkers-except-Mail-Mi thing.

That is grossly misrepresenting my position. Lynching a lurker and a lurker-lynch is not the same thing. The first means that you have reasons to believe a given lurker is scum. The second means lynching a lurker because lurkers are harder to read.

You're splitting hairs here.  You're right that I just semi-randomly voted for Awaclus to get him in here, but by the time you started arguing about this it was far from lynching a lurker because he was hard to read.

And yeah, when you said you wanted time to look it over that was fine, and I get that it's hard to keep up with this stuff while at work. I'm sympathetic toward that.

But I'm not sympathetic to this post overall.  You might be legitimately emotional, but I'm in no way grossly misrepresenting what you said.  You didn't say you were frustrated or you wanted time to analyze the wagon.  I was trying to hold people accountable for their votes and at the time only Hydrad hadn't chimed in if I recall correctly.  That's a legitimate worry I agree.

But your argument is nonsense.  And not wanting to lynch a claimed vanilla townie who is reacting super scummily under pressure because he might be lying and softclaiming a PR is crazy.

So I argued against an Awaclus lynch, because it seemed like the only way to get the time to do all that. And well, that arguing was rushed, because I was at work.

Yeah, I have to admit this is plausible.  But you could have said that at the time, rather than making a bad defense.  I'm inclined to believe you really were rushed and not thinking, but that in your rush you made a bad defense of your scumbuddy.  That makes more sense to me with how that went down.  I think as town you didn't need to have a terrible argument, you could have just asked us to wait.

But I'm still willing to hold it against him, maybe I'm not fair, whatever.  Deliberate lurking doesn't seem that implausible to me.

There's a difference between the plausible deniability of "he didn't post anything at that time, maybe he was deliberately lurking!" and "I checked his activity on the forum, and I know that he deliberately chose to not post anything at that time!". The second is much more incriminating, but requires a specific reading of information not even available on the game thread. I am not ok with that.
[/quote]
You're right, we don't know that Mail-mi was avoiding the game for scum reasons.  And I'm not trying to say that anything is for sure.  But I have every right to find it suspicious and to keep it in mind and point it out.

I actually kind of like Mail-mi's reply to this.  And the fact that he replied to it already gives us more content on him than we had all day yesterday.  And the threat of lynching him may get him to catch up on this game if he's town.  But it's also a serious threat because there's a good chance he's scum.

I don't like how you're framing this, as if I'm going to lynch Mail-mi single handedly, based soley on the fact that he lurked through the day end.  As if I'm claiming it's some sort of huge case.  I'm not even voting the guy!

But if people are going to lurk scummily, I'm going to say something.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Wow.  Okay looks like I'm wall posting.  Time to sleep.  Not having internet at home to avoid these late night posts has been good for my game I think.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Got to read some Pacovf games tomorrow, but what do you guys think about this reply to me?

It reads pretty scummy from where I'm sitting.

[Seprix]

So you're saying my Law of Mafia Scum Averages isn't a law!? #triggered

I think Pacovf was just rushed, I'm not entirely sure he's scummy, though since he did try to defend Awaclus, I can give him a closer read. No harm.

[Teproc]

Ok, wagon analysis, here we go. Let's start with WW.

Well, I was probably wrong about WW. Probably. His Awaclus vote is actually not as decisive as I first thought though, he gains less town cred than, say, UoS from the lynch.

Though I guess there's very little scum narrative for WW to vote for a partner at that point, when he was under pressure with a mail-mi wagon right there... Either you vote mail-mi or you launch an other mislynch wagon, but that'd be a very weird moment to bus, except if he thought he was going to be lynched himself, but that didn't look incredibly likely at that point. Ok, WW is probably town. If he's still alive at lylo or something it can and should be reconsidered, but lynching him at anypoint before that would very likely be wrong.

[Teproc]

UoS is obvtown and should never be lynched. Basically. Next.

[Teproc]

chairs.

Can we just vote: awaclus and get rolling? I want to see what N1's NK will be already so we can work with it D2.

If that's a bus, that's a pretty bold one. That put Awaclus to L-2 AND chairs was going away from the biggest competing wagon (mail-mi, who had three votes counting chairs').

The comment about wanting to see the NK flip is strange for a bunch of reasons, but still, that does not look like a bus to me.

Mmh, he does vote Seprix later. The vote count hadn't changed at that point, maybe he thought the Awaclus lynch was inevitable earlier on and then saw an escape in lynching Seprix ? I mean that's a scum narrative, but the town narrative seems so much stronger.

Yeah, I could see it, but hairs is not in my lynch pool today.

[Teproc]

Seprix.

Awaclus

I didn't like the accusations against Awaclus, but I'm warming up to them. Unknown

Awaclus has 3 votes on him at this point, bu they're very recent. This is pretty classic scumpartner read : "oh yeah we could totally lynch this guy, I'm fine with that. OTOH, look at those other three scum reads I have ! Why dond't we lynch them ? skip, ADK and mail-mi were the scum reads FWIW.

I feel bad for thinking this (because it might encourage groupthink and dissuade people from carrying out their reads) but chairs feels a bit scummy for me right now. Like, enough for me to change my vote from mail-mi.

vote: Chairs

Deflection, shortyly after chairs gets on the Awaclus wagon.

Well, I'm ending this facade. :/

vote: Awaclus

Very little posts between those two votes.

We have a winner here, Seprix's attitude towards the Awaclus wagon is pretty typical scum partner. I would expect maybe a little more effort towards getting another wagon going, but still, that makes him a frontrunner for today's lynch.

[Teproc]

ADK.

Okay then let's see.

Vote: Awaclus

WW seems to like pursuing "safe" lynches. I'm moving back to liking a WW lynch.

Doesn't look like it. vote: WW

This is a catch-up post (and follow-up vote), at that point Awaclus has 4 votes and WW has 1. WW was looking like a tough sell at this point, but I could still see scum!ADK deciding to push that wagon when his partner is starting to be in danger, as his argument against the WW lynch made it hard for him to go for the other possible wagon at the time : mail-mi, who had 3 votes.

Wow yeah I could definitely lynch awaclus today. Scum read is skyrocketing.

This is during the end-game craziness, after Awaclus softclaimed a PR but before he claimed VT. No vote here though, ADK could have been anticipating a claim from Awaclus at that point. He hammers some time later after some confusion because he though Seprix had hammered already.

Definitely in the lynch pool. Based strictly on interactions with Awaclus, he's not that scummy, but I wouldn't expect scum!ADK to be too sloppy either. I also just haven't gotten a town vibe from ADK at any point in this game, which is very unusual for me. In the lynch pool certainly.

[Teproc]

Off-wagon now, let's start with mail-mi.

Well that was quick. He has 0 interactions with Awaclus, though to be faire he has 0 interactions with most people. mail-mi being Awaclus' partner would certainly help explain the lack of resistance to an Awaclus lynch yesterday. He's probably a good lynch for today, though I like Seprix better at this point.

[Teproc]

pacovf.

Huh, about anyone else... Joseph is the IC, Awaclus has been super-lurking, and I am not fine with that, and I haven't formed an opinion on Seprix yet.


So people I would vote for: Mail-mi, chairs, ADK, Awaclus, maybe Seprix, maaaaaaaybe Teproc.

This is right before Hydrad voes Awaclus, so he has 0 votes there. Fits a scumpartner attitude : Awaclus is among people pacovf is fine lynching, but not too high up there.

I notice you mention that you could see a skip or Awaclus lynch. I'm not sold on skip. I don't see why you are against a Mail-mi lynch but for an Awaclus one. It's the sort of non-accountable wagon you were complaining about for Mail-mi.

Only 1 vote on Awaclus at this point, but pacovf is already doing some damage control. Well, that or pacovf is being consistent with his view on lurker lynches, but either way, this still fits.

Is anyone voting (or wanting to vote) for Awaclus for a reason other than him lurking? If he flips town, are you all going to throw your hands up in the air and say "but he was lurking!"?

I'm all up for lynching lurkers... starting on D2. Otherwise, I would rather lynch someone that actually gets us somewhere even if he flips town. Own your votes, people!

Otherwise, if anyone has a strong opinion on Hydrad, ADK or Seprix (remember when he had a wagon on him?), I would like to hear it. We haven't discussed any of them lately.

Now this is deflecting. Awaclus has 4 votes on him now and is the leading wagon, so now is where a competent scumpartner has to make a choice. What's weird here is that pacovf's vote is sitting on mail-mi, which goes rather strongly against his argument here (yes he'll say he had an actual case on mail-mi, but if mail-mi had been lynched it would still have mostly been a lurker lynch). Now inconsistencies tend to be townie, but this particularly inconsistency allows pacovf to stay on the main competing wagon to a scum lynch, so maybe not this time.

Off to read a scum!Awaclus game. Maybe a town one too, I'm really confused about his play here.

I approve.

Not sure if this means anything, but it's probably relevant in some way.

Again, I haven't had the time to reread Awaclus, but while UoS is really persuasive, the case against Awaclus is still just that he is lurking. Lurker lynches are bad in D1, because if he flips town, we have next to nothing. I would totally be for an Awaclus lynch for D2 (assuming nothing better comes up from the flips), because he has earned it many times over, but I don't think I want to lynch him today.

Awaclus has 5 votes on him now. THis reminds me very strongly of Star Wars Mafia, which will speak to probably nobody here (maybe WW was in that ?), but I'll explain. I was scum with XP in that game, and XP was super scummy on D1 and had a lynch on him. I defended him with what basically amounted as a "too scummy to be scum" argument, and persisted even when I knew he was about to be lynched, because I felt like town!me would not switch at that point, and that anyone with a passing familiarity with my meta would recognize a switch to be a desperate attempt at towncred. In fact I hoped that my stalwart defense of him would be seen as exonerating.

I think pacovf has a pretty close playstyle to mine, so it'd make sense that his scumplay would be close to mine as well, and it really feels like this is happening here.

Starting to think Awaclus/Seprix/pacovf might be a winning ticket, though that's probably getting ahead of ourselves. I definitely like both lynches better than the other somewhat scummy people so far (ADK and mail-mi).

[Teproc]

skip.

Would scum!awaclus be this uninterested in this game? (Or do we think he's pretending to be uninterested?)

Going into this, that's the argument I was looking for in scumpartners. Awaclus had 4 votes at this point.

This is absurd. @Awaclus, you dont want to tell us why you think chairs is scum. Can you tell us why you don't want to tell us why you think chairs is scum?

Could go either way on that one.

are there any reasons that don't assume your survival through day 1?

Can't think of any.
[/quote]and at this point in the proceedings, after claiming vt, you don't think you're going to get lynched? (Side point: why did you say before that you were confident you weren't getting lynched today? I took that as softclaiming a PR. sorry I can't find the wuote right now)
[/quote]

Could be frustration that Awaclus didn't claim something ?

I don't know. He could be a scumpartner, but I just don't really feel it. He goes back and forth with Awaclus a lot in the end, which I don't think scum, especially new!scum would feel very comfortable doing, as he'd know at this point that Awaclus was about to flip scum. Not in my lynch pool for today, need more from/about him.

[Teproc]

Ok, so I think today's lynch should be between Seprix and pacovf. I'm pretty confident at least one of them is scum.

vote: Seprix

[skip wooznum]

Ok, so I think today's lynch should be between Seprix and pacovf. I'm pretty confident at least one of them is scum.

vote: Seprix

id much rather lynch pacovf than seprix

[pacovf]

You're splitting hairs here.  You're right that I just semi-randomly voted for Awaclus to get him in here, but by the time you started arguing about this it was far from lynching a lurker because he was hard to read.

I am not splitting hairs. Before your case, Awaclus was strictly a lurker lynch. After your case, I was barely following along, because I was at work. I actually completely forgot what your case was by the end of the day. I just could not keep up. I want to believe that either as town or scum, I would not try to deliberately misrepresent what another player is saying.

But your argument is nonsense.  And not wanting to lynch a claimed vanilla townie who is reacting super scummily under pressure because he might be lying and softclaiming a PR is crazy.

Check your timeline. My defense came before he claimed VT, and before he started being super flippant about his wagon.

So I argued against an Awaclus lynch, because it seemed like the only way to get the time to do all that. And well, that arguing was rushed, because I was at work.

Yeah, I have to admit this is plausible.  But you could have said that at the time, rather than making a bad defense.  I'm inclined to believe you really were rushed and not thinking, but that in your rush you made a bad defense of your scumbuddy.  That makes more sense to me with how that went down.  I think as town you didn't need to have a terrible argument, you could have just asked us to wait.

I already asked you to wait! And you were ignoring me! And honestly, you can't tell me that if I had asked you to wait again, instead of rushing a defense, you wouldn't be waving that against me just as well.

I don't like how you're framing this, as if I'm going to lynch Mail-mi single handedly, based soley on the fact that he lurked through the day end.  As if I'm claiming it's some sort of huge case.  I'm not even voting the guy!

That's how your initial post reads to me. I see now that it's not what you intended. Sorry for the confusion.

pacovf.

Huh, about anyone else... Joseph is the IC, Awaclus has been super-lurking, and I am not fine with that, and I haven't formed an opinion on Seprix yet.


So people I would vote for: Mail-mi, chairs, ADK, Awaclus, maybe Seprix, maaaaaaaybe Teproc.

This is right before Hydrad voes Awaclus, so he has 0 votes there. Fits a scumpartner attitude : Awaclus is among people pacovf is fine lynching, but not too high up there.

I notice you mention that you could see a skip or Awaclus lynch. I'm not sold on skip. I don't see why you are against a Mail-mi lynch but for an Awaclus one. It's the sort of non-accountable wagon you were complaining about for Mail-mi.

Only 1 vote on Awaclus at this point, but pacovf is already doing some damage control. Well, that or pacovf is being consistent with his view on lurker lynches, but either way, this still fits.

I would have to read what happened between those two posts to see why I switched positions. But dunno, seems like doing damage control at one vote is waaaaaay premature.

Is anyone voting (or wanting to vote) for Awaclus for a reason other than him lurking? If he flips town, are you all going to throw your hands up in the air and say "but he was lurking!"?

I'm all up for lynching lurkers... starting on D2. Otherwise, I would rather lynch someone that actually gets us somewhere even if he flips town. Own your votes, people!

Otherwise, if anyone has a strong opinion on Hydrad, ADK or Seprix (remember when he had a wagon on him?), I would like to hear it. We haven't discussed any of them lately.

Now this is deflecting. Awaclus has 4 votes on him now and is the leading wagon, so now is where a competent scumpartner has to make a choice. What's weird here is that pacovf's vote is sitting on mail-mi, which goes rather strongly against his argument here (yes he'll say he had an actual case on mail-mi, but if mail-mi had been lynched it would still have mostly been a lurker lynch). Now inconsistencies tend to be townie, but this particularly inconsistency allows pacovf to stay on the main competing wagon to a scum lynch, so maybe not this time.

Huuuuh no. When I wrote my case on mail-mi, your reaction wasn't that it was bad because it was a lurker lynch (you said that my case fitted town!mail-mi's meta too). It would be nice if we could stop pretending that my vote on mail-mi was encouraging a lurker lynch. Unlike Awaclus's wagon, which started strictly as a lurker lynch, only with more words. Not to mention that mail-mi never got a wagon on him (3 votes woooo), so it's hard to say what a mail-mi lynch would have looked like.

To be fair, I find a bit grating all this "but your vote was sitting on mail-mi!" thing.

Off to read a scum!Awaclus game. Maybe a town one too, I'm really confused about his play here.

I approve.

Not sure if this means anything, but it's probably relevant in some way.

I approved that you were willing to go the extra mile for this game.

Again, I haven't had the time to reread Awaclus, but while UoS is really persuasive, the case against Awaclus is still just that he is lurking. Lurker lynches are bad in D1, because if he flips town, we have next to nothing. I would totally be for an Awaclus lynch for D2 (assuming nothing better comes up from the flips), because he has earned it many times over, but I don't think I want to lynch him today.

Awaclus has 5 votes on him now. THis reminds me very strongly of Star Wars Mafia, which will speak to probably nobody here (maybe WW was in that ?), but I'll explain. I was scum with XP in that game, and XP was super scummy on D1 and had a lynch on him. I defended him with what basically amounted as a "too scummy to be scum" argument, and persisted even when I knew he was about to be lynched, because I felt like town!me would not switch at that point, and that anyone with a passing familiarity with my meta would recognize a switch to be a desperate attempt at towncred. In fact I hoped that my stalwart defense of him would be seen as exonerating.

I could have switched at that point. My last post was that I wanted more time to think about UoS's case.

You don't address the proposal to lynch Awaclus D2. What do you think of it?

Anyway, I am at work, so don't expect a back and forth. I am mostly posting so that Teproc sees something before he goes to sleep. I will do a reread tonight or tomorrow, fish for towny things I did, and update my town/scum reads.

[Witherweaver]

I don't think scum!Awaclus means town!WW. I do think town!Awaclus heavily implies scum!WW.

FYI, this is why I came into today thinking Chairs was scummy.  This was a weird thing to say, because at that point I basically could not unvote Awaclus.  If I unvoted, I would have looked like scum afraid of being on a bad mislynch, and maybe people would move to me instead of Awaclus.  If Awaclus ended up getting lynched as scum, then I look like his partner.

I'm not sure exactly what Chairs intended with this, but it had felt pretty odd.  It felt like he wanted me to unvote and then do something with that.  Perhaps he just wanted to see reactions.

But anyway, we should probably lynch off wagon today.

[chairs]

scum!seprix = scum!skip.

[Witherweaver]

I had reasons for thinking Seprix was scum after yesterday, but I don't remember what those were.  Probably because he's Seprix.

[Witherweaver]

You don't address the proposal to lynch Awaclus D2. What do you think of it?

I don't know what he thinks of it (or who "he" is), but it was scummy.

Vote: Pacovf

[Witherweaver]

...(numerous weird things)...

In this "Law of Mafia Average", does it matter whether the wagon was on scum or town?

[pacovf]

You don't address the proposal to lynch Awaclus D2. What do you think of it?

I don't know what he thinks of it (or who "he" is), but it was scummy.

Really? Why?

I was talking to Teproc there.

[Witherweaver]

Because it's averting from his lynch while not opposing the idea of lynching him.  Who knows, maybe Awaclus will come back tomorrow and start acting super townie and we won't want to lynch him any more.  Maybe general town feeling will change.

I did a similar thing in my first scum game with regards to Ashersky. 

[pacovf]

Fair enough.

What's the difference with NMVI then? Something similar happened there, and you reacted the opposite way.

[silverspawn]

Vote Count 2.1

Seprix (1): Teproc
pacovf (2): UmbrageOfSnow, Witherweaver
chairs (1): A Drowned Kernel
skip wooznum (1): mail-mi

Not Voting (5): Seprix, pacovf, Hydrad, chairs, skip wooznum

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 2 ends at Jul 4, 7 PM Forum Time.