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Author Topic: Statistics: Right # of Cantrips in deck  (Read 1541 times)

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buggibum

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Statistics: Right # of Cantrips in deck
« on: January 03, 2012, 06:34:03 pm »
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Statistics: Right # of Cantrips in deck

So i was checking some stats out on the councilroom site and i put alle the Cantrips which Costs 5 in the graphic.
http://councilroom.com/win_rate_diff_accum.html?cards=Cost%3D%3D5%26%26Actions%3E%3D1%26%26Cards%3E%3D1

What was weird is, if you have odd numbers of those cantrips in your deck, your winning rate drops down.
So i wonder if there is some mathematical or psychological reason for it.
I mean how come your winning rate of 2 and 4 Bazaars is better than 3 for instance?

Would love to hear what your theories are about it?
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: Statistics: Right # of Cantrips in deck
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2012, 06:52:50 pm »
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I think you're reading the graph wrong. The x-axis is the difference in number, not the total number. Odd differences imply the pile did not exhaust. For example a difference of 9 cities means a 9-0 split. A 9-1 split counts as a difference of 8. Naturally 8 looks a lot better than 9 on the graph.

So my explanation for this phenomenon is that in games where the pile runs out, you only get even differences. In these games, it's more likely that the person who wins the split is at an advantage, which biases all the even points up.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2012, 06:56:52 pm by HiveMindEmulator »
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Tables

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Re: Statistics: Right # of Cantrips in deck
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2012, 06:58:48 pm »
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Firstly just to be correct, note that it's the difference in number, not the absolute number. And considering that, I'd say it might (to a small degree) come down to races for them: Most Isotropic games are 2 player, and when you're racing for Cities, or Highways, the difference will always be a multiple of two (you have x of them, your opponent has 10-x, meaning the difference in no. is 2x-10). And in those cases, the winner is often the person who got more of them.

Of course, not every game with those cards will be a race, and when it isn't, it probably means they aren't so good (and so the win rates are lower for odd numbers, which rarely occur in a race), or that while their is a race for them, it isn't so vitally important, and so there are still some left in the supply: In that case, again, odd numbers can occur. But in the key cases, when they're a vital card that sells out from the supply, you'll always get an even number difference, and the person with more probably wins, forming this pattern.

In short, this pattern is a result of strategies, not a cause of it.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

buggibum

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Re: Statistics: Right # of Cantrips in deck
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2012, 07:10:18 pm »
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Oh thx for the correction. Now i got it.
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